Securing India’s energy future

Anil Kakodkar

IIM, Bangalore, January 4, 2012

India alone would need around 40% of present global electricity generation to be added to reach average 5000 kWh per capita electricity generation

World OECD Non-OECD India India (developing world) of our dream

Population (billion) 6.7 1.18 5.52 1.2 1.6 (stabilised)

Annual av. per capita ~2800 ~9000 ~1500 ~675 5000Electricity (kWh)

AnnualElectricityGeneration 18.8 10.6 8.2 0.811 8.0 (trillion kWh)

Carbon-di-oxideEmission 30 13 17 1.7 ?(billion tons/yr)

Securing energy for India’s future is a major challenge

WHILE WE MUST MAKE FULL USE OF ALL

AVAILABLE ENERGY RESOURCES ONLY

THORIUM AND SOLAR ENERGY IS SUSTAINABLE IN

THE LONG RUN(FUSION ENERGY NOT CONSIDERED

FOR THE PRESENT)

Number of years a domestic non-renewable energy source (as known today) can last at 5000 kWh/capita

electricity consumption in India (8 trillion units)

Coal Hydro-carbon Uranium Uranium Thorium once-through recycle

11.5 ---- 0.36 18.5 >170

Electricity generation potential from renewable sources in India ( as fraction of

8 trillion units)

Hydro Other renewables solar(wind+biomass)

0.075 0.0225 1.0**Would need ~45,000 sq.km which corresponds to a fourth of barren and uncultivable land in India

Non- renewable

Renewable

. Global average temperature over last one and a half century showing a more or less steady increase over the last fifty years or so. The fluctuations and their cycles can be correlated with various events like solar cycles

We do not know how close we are to the

tipping point. However we need to

act now to secure survival of our future

generations.

Incidentally both nuclear and solar

cause least carbon-di-oxide emission

Stage 1:Since Thorium does not have a naturally occurring fissile content, one has to begin nuclear energy program with Uranium.

Stage 2:For faster growth, plutonium breeding in fast reactors is necessary

Stage 3:After generation capacity is sufficiently enlarged through fast reactors, Thorium can sustain the generation capacity with a wide range of choices, lower minor actinide burden and greater proliferation resistance

Three Stage Indian Nuclear Power Programme

Stage – I Stage – I PHWRsPHWRs• 18 – Operating (4460 MWe)18 – Operating (4460 MWe)• 4– 700 MWe units under 4– 700 MWe units under construction (2800 Mwe) construction (2800 Mwe) •Several 700 MWe units Several 700 MWe units plannedplanned LWRsLWRs• 2 --BWRs Operating (320 2 --BWRs Operating (320 MWe)MWe)• 2 -- VVERs under 2 -- VVERs under construction (2000 Mwe)construction (2000 Mwe)• Several LWR Units plannedSeveral LWR Units planned

90

7975

84 84 8690 91

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Ava

ilabi

lity

Stage - IIStage - II Fast Breeder ReactorsFast Breeder Reactors•40 MWth FBTR - 40 MWth FBTR - Operating since Operating since 19851985•Technology Objectives realisedTechnology Objectives realised•500 MWe PFBR- 500 MWe PFBR-

Under Construction Under Construction •Pre-project activities for two more Pre-project activities for two more FBRs approvedFBRs approved•TOTAL POWER TOTAL POWER POTENTIAL POTENTIAL 530 GWe 530 GWe (including (including 300 GWe with 300 GWe with Thorium)Thorium)

No additional mined uranium is No additional mined uranium is needed for this scale upneeded for this scale up

Stage - IIIStage - III Thorium Based ReactorsThorium Based Reactors

• 30 kWth KAMINI- Operating30 kWth KAMINI- Operating

• 300 MWe AHWR-300 MWe AHWR- ready for deploymentready for deployment

• Availability of ADS can enable early introduction of Thorium on a large scaleENERGY POTENTIAL IS ENERGY POTENTIAL IS VERY LARGEVERY LARGE

World class performance

Globally Advanced Technology

Globally Unique

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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e)

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Strategy for long-term energy security

LWR import: 40 GWePeriod: 2012-2020

The deficit is practically wiped out in 2050

Projected requirement*

Hydroelectric

Non-conventional

Coal domestic

Hydrocarbon

Nuclear (Domestic 3-stage programme)

LWR (Imported)

FBR using spent fuel from LWR

* - Assuming 4200 kcal/kg

*Ref: “A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India”, document 10, August 2004, DAE

Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh)

Coal world average 161 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)Coal China 278Coal USA 15Oil 36 (36% of world energy)Natural Gas 4 (21% of world energy)Biofuel/Biomass 12Peat 12Solar (rooftop) 0.44 (less than 0.1% of world energy)Wind 0.15 (less than 1% of world energy)Hydro 0.10 (Europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)Hydro - world including Banqiao) 1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)Nuclear 0.04 (5.9% of world energy)

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html

Risks with nuclear energy are the least

IN CASE OF CHERNOBYL

ESTIMATED CONSEQUENCESAN ESTIMATE IN 2006—93,000 WILL DIE DUE TO CANCER UP TO THE YEAR2056ANOTHER ESTIMATE IN 2009---985,000 DIED TILL 2004

ACTUAL CONSEQUENCETOTAL DEATHS;62 (47 PLANT, 15 DUE TO THYROID CANCER )ACUTE RADIATION SYNDROME;134 (OUT OF WHICH 28 HAVE DIED)INCREASED CANCER INCIDENCE; AMONG RECOVERY WORKERSTHYROID CANCER; (CURABLE, WAS AVOIDABLE) 6000 ( 15 HAVE DIED)

Projected health consequences from low doses to large sections of population are questionable

Driven by conservative

linear no threshold

principle (which is not substantiated

surveys in high natural radiation

background areas) we tend to create avoidable trauma

in public mind

Waste management challenge can be effectively met through recycle

There is already a large used uranium fuel inventory (~270,000 tons as per WNA estimate)

While the spent fuel would be a sufficiently large energy

resource if recycled, its permanent disposal is in my view an unacceptable security and safety risk (plutonium mine?)

We need to adopt ways to liquidate the spent fuel inventory through recycle

France today recycles entire spent fuel arising. Recycle is a credible option.

Development of Partitioning and Transmutation technologies can in principle effectively address long term waste management challenge.

The Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), a quick, safe, secure and proliferation resistant

solution for the energy hungry world AHWR is a 300 MWe vertical pressure tube type, boiling light water cooled and heavy water moderated reactor (An innovative configuration that can provide low risk nuclear energy using available technologies)

AHWR can be configured to accept a range of fuel types including LEU, U-Pu , Th-Pu , LEU-Th and 233U-Th in full core

AHWR Fuel assemblyAHWR Fuel assembly

Bottom Tie Plate

Top Tie Plate

Water Tube

Displacer Rod

Fuel Pin

Major design objectives

Significant fraction of Energy from Thorium

Several passive features 3 days grace period No radiological impact

Passive shutdown system to address insider threat scenarios.

Design life of 100 years.

Easily replaceable coolant channels.

AHWR300-LEU provides a robust design against external as well as internal threats, including insider malevolent acts. This feature contributes to strong security of the reactor through implementation of technological solutions.

Reactor Block Components

AHWR 300-LEU is a simple 300 MWe system fuelled with LEU-Thorium fuel, has advanced passive safety features,

high degree of operator forgiving characteristics, no adverse impact in public domain, high proliferation

resistance and inherent security strength.

Peak clad temperature hardly

rises even in the extreme condition of

complete station blackout and failure

of primary and secondary systems.

14

PSA calculations for AHWR indicate practically zero probability of a serious impact in public domain

Plant familiarization & identification of design aspects important to severe accident

Plant familiarization & identification of design aspects important to severe accident

PSA level-1 : Identification of significant events with large contribution to CDF

PSA level-1 : Identification of significant events with large contribution to CDF

Level-2 : Source Term (within Containment) Evaluation through Analysis

Level-2 : Source Term (within Containment) Evaluation through Analysis

Release from Containment Release from Containment

Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion With Consequence Analysis

Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion With Consequence Analysis

Level-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagramLevel-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagram

Variation of dose with frequency exceedence(Acceptable thyroid dose for a child is 500 mSv)

Iso-Dose for thyroid -200% RIH + wired shutdown system unavailable (Wind condition in January on

western Indian side)

Contribution to CDF

SWS: Service Water System

APWS: Active Process Water System

ECCS HDRBRK: ECCS Header Break

LLOCA: Large Break LOCA

MSLBOB: Main Steam Line Break Outside Containment

SWS63%

SLOCA15%

10-3 10-2 10-1 100

10-14

10-13

10-12

10-11

10-10

Fre

qu

ency

of

Exc

eed

ence

Thyroid Dose (Sv) at 0.5 Km

1 mSv 0.1 Sv 1.0 Sv 10 Sv

10-

14

10-

13

10-

12

10-

11

10-

10

238Pu 3.50 %

239Pu 51.87

%

240Pu 23.81

%

241Pu 12.91

%

242Pu 7.91 %

9.54 %

41.65 %

21.14 %

13.96 %

13.70 %

232U 0.00 %

233U 0.00 %

234U 0.00 %

235U 0.82 %

236U 0.59 %

238U 98.59

%

STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU

Much lower Plutonium production.

Plutonium in spent fuel contains lower fissile fraction, much higher 238Pu content which causes heat generation & Uranium in spent fuel contains significant 232U content which leads to hard gamma emitters.

The composition of the fresh as well as the spent fuel of AHWR300-LEU makes the fuel cycle inherently proliferation resistant.

Uranium in spent fuel contains about 8% fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable for further energy production through reuse in other reactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.

0.02 %

6.51 %

1.24 %

1.62 %

3.27 %

87.35 %

Modern LWR

AHWR300-LEU

Nuclear power with greater proliferation

resistance

Enrichment Plant LEU

Thermal reactors

Safe &Secure

ReactorsFor ex. AHWR

LEU Thorium fuel

Reprocess Spent Fuel Fast

Reactor

Recycle

ThoriumReactorsFor ex. Acc. Driven MSR

Recycle

Thorium

Thorium

Uranium

MOX

LEU-Thorium

233UThorium

Thorium

For growth in nuclear

generation beyond thermal reactor

potential

Present deploymentOf nuclear power

CHALLENGES IN SOLAR TECHNOLOGY

Drive capital costs down

Low cost energy storage systems

Solar biomass hybrids

Solar thermal photovoltaic hybrids

Large solar thermal systems not dependent on availability of water

Technology initiatives1.Higher efficiency / non-toxic PV materials2.High temperature photovoltaics3.Self cleaning abrasion resistant surfaces4.Recycle of Carbon-di-oxide to fluid hydrocarbon substitutes5. ---------------

GREATER SHARE FOR NUCLEAR IN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

REPLACE FOSSIL HYDRO- CARBON IN A PROGRESSIVE MANNER

RECYCLE CARBON- DIOXIDE DERIVE MOST OF PRIMARY ENERGY THROUGH SOLAR & NUCLEAR

Sustainable development of energy sector Transition to Fossil Carbon Free Energy Cycle

Fossil Energy Resources

Nuclear Energy Resources

Hydrogen

ENERGY CARRIERS

(In storage or transportation)

• Electricity

• Fluid fuels

(hydro-carbons/ hydrogen)

Biomass

WASTE• CO2

• H2O

• Other oxides and products

Nuclear Recycle

Sustainable Waste Management Strategies

CO2

Sun

Urgent need to reduce use of fossil carbon in a progressive manner

chemical reactor

CO2

CH4 FluidHydro carbons

Electricity

Electricity

Carbon/Hydrocarbons

Other recycle modes

Thank you

STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU

MUCH LOWER PLUTONIUM PRODUCTIONMuch Higher 238Pu & Lower Fissile Plutonium

Reduced Plutonium generation

MODERN LWR

AHWR300-LEU

238Pu239Pu

240Pu

242Pu

241Pu

238Pu 3.50 %239Pu 51.87 %240Pu 23.81 %241Pu 12.91 %242Pu 7.91 %

238Pu 9.54 %239Pu 41.65 %240Pu 21.14 %241Pu 13.96 %242Pu 13.70 %

High 238Pu fraction and low fissile content of Plutonium

The French N4 PWR is considered as representative of a modern LWR.. The reactor has been referred from “Accelerator-driven Systems (ADS) and Fast Reactor (FR) in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles”, OECD (2002)

The composition

of the fresh

as well as the

spent fuel of

AHWR300-LEU

makes the

fuel cycle

inherently

proliferation

resistant.

MODERN LWR

AHWR300-LEU

232U 0.00 %233U 0.00 %234U 0.00 %235U 0.82 %236U 0.59 %238U 98.59 %

232U 0.02 %233U 6.51 %234U 1.24 %235U 1.62 %236U 3.27 %238U 87.35 %

232U233U234U

236U

235U

238U

Presence of 232U in uranium from spent fuel

Uranium in the spent fuel contains about 8% fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable to be reused in other reactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.