The Canasat Project

Remote Sensing Satellite Images for Sugarcane Crop Monitoring

Thelma Krug (thelmakrug@dir.inpe.br) Bernardo Rudorff (bernardo@dsr.inpe.br)

National Institute for Space Research – INPE

2o Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle

Campinas, 11-12 November, 2009

Land‐useChange•  Amount,orarea,oflandconverted?

–  Remotelysenseddata

•  Loca:onoflandusechanges?–  Remotelysenseddata

•  Landtypes/biomesconverted?–  Remotelysenseddataandmodels(MODIS,CBERS,mixturemodels)

•  GHGemissionsfromlandconversion?–  GoodPrac3ceGuidanceforLULUCF(IPCC)–  Allcarbonreservoirs,includingsoil–  Non‐CO2emissions(fer3lizeruse,fieldburning)

Satellite scenes for South-Central Brazil

Landsat-TM, CBERS-CCD & -HRC, DMC, IRS-P6 AWIFS, Terra MODIS, Rapideye

SugarcaneAreaEs-ma-on

Annualupdatesonsugarcaneexpansionandrenova3on(oldareasreplacedbynewareas)

SãoPauloState–since2003•  South‐Central–since2005

Landsat-5 image from 24 April 2007 in São Paulo State - Color composition 4(R)5(G)3(B).

1-Sugarcane 2-Citrus 3-Annual crop 4-Forest 5-Pasture 6-Others

(a) (b)

2

3

3

3

4

4

1

1

11

1

41

5

5

5

6

6

Thematic sugarcane map Landsat image interpreted

(a) 04/03/2006; (b) 11/09/2006; (c) 24/04/2007 e (d) 15/07/2007

Sugarcane Expansion

(c) (d)

(a) Soybean (b) Bare soil (c) Sugarcane

Sugarcane Renovation

Área(1.000

ha)

Taxaanu

aldecrescimen

to(%

)

Sugarcane area and annual growth rate from crop year 2005/06 to 2008/09

Ann

ual g

row

th ra

te %

Total area available for harvest Annual growth rate

Canasat‐Harvest

Sugarcanewithandwithoutpre‐harvestburning

Safra 2006/07

Safra 2007/08

SugarcaneFieldBurnings

•  Federalini:a:ve(1999)– Banallsugarcanefieldburningsby2021inflatterrainandby2031otherwise

•  SãoPauloState– Baninflatterrainby2014andotherwiseby2017

•  2007/2008(mechanizedharvest)– 36%inBrazil– 45%inSãoPauloState

Landuseclassespriortosugarcaneexpansionfrom2005to2008inSãoPauloState

Landusepriortosugarcaneexpansionfrom2005to2008inSãoPauloState

Landuseclassespriortosugarcaneexpansionon2007and2008intheSouth‐CentralRegion

Spatial-temporal analysis of land use cover change using MODIS images

from 2000 to 2008

Color Composition of Principal Components (1-R, 2-G, 3-B) derived from MODIS images transformed to the vegetation fraction of a linear mixture model (Shimabukuro & Smith, 1991).

Overlayed sugarcane map

Pasture Sugarcane

Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images indicating land use changes from pasture to sugarcane

Vege

tatio

n Fr

actio

n

Year

Agriculture Sugarcane

Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images indicating land use changes from agriculture to sugarcane

Vege

tatio

n Fr

actio

n

Year

Pasture Agriculture Sugarcane

Spectral-temporal trajectory from 2000 to 2008 of MODIS images indicating land use changes from pasture to agriculture to sugarcane

Vege

tatio

n Fr

actio

n

Year

iLUC

•  S:llunderdevelopment

•  Defini:ons(Gnansounouetal.,2008)–  Spa:aliLUC(displacementofpriorproduc:ontootherloca:on)

–  TemporaliLUC(shi`inglanduseinthesameloca:on)

–  UseiLUC(shi`ingbiomassuseinthesameloca:on)–  Displacedac:vity/useiLUC(avoidinglandusechangebyshi`ingpreviousac:vitytoothercountries)

iLUC

•  Addi:onallandmaybehappeningdespiteexpansionofbiofuels’feedstockproduc:on

•  Whenexpansionofbiofuel’sfeedstocktakesplaceinconjunc:onwithexpansionofagriculturalproductsforfoodproduc:onitishardtoproveeffect‐causerela:onsbetweenbiofuel’sexpansionanddeforesta:on,forinstance.

iLUC

•  Needfordatatosupporttheideathatsugarcaneexpansionisleadingtoanincreaseinthelandproduc:vity,ratherthanpromo:ngincorpora:ononnewlandforfoodproduc:on,asgrainsandpasturelandaredisplaced.

•  Strongincreaseinpastureproduc:vity,measuredbystockingra:o,maketheBraziliancaseastrongexampleofhowharditistoempiricallyprovetheiLUCeffectassociatedwiththeexpansionofsugarcane.

Projec:onofcropsandpasturedisplacementbysugarcaneexpansion(2008‐2018)

On‐goingwork

•  EstablishmentofaTaskGrouponiLUC–  Researchins:tutes,academia,sta:s:csins:tu:ons,SecretariesofAgriculture,Pasture

•  Model’sdevelopment–  ICONE(Ins:tuteforTradeandInterna:onalNego:a:onsStudies)

•  Modelisbasedondemandresponsetopricechangesandsupplyresponsetomarketreturns(profitability)changes.

•  Na:onalandregionalpricesarecalculatedaccordingtoabasicassump:onofmicroeconomics:theyareachievedwhensupplyanddemandpricesforeachcoincide,genera:ngamarketequilibrium.