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Abstract ... Why does it take millions of transistors to realise the broadcast radio receiver done in five in the 70's? Why are there millions of lines of software in products that are not programmable? And why do we throw things away before they break? The are not programmable? And why do we throw things away before they break? The last 40 years saw the exponential growth of silicon capacity and the technology lead markets that ensued. Complexity was never an obstacle whilst design cost was 2nd order, but now that limits are upon us it is also apparent that people buy products not technology ... so we strive to deliver elevated expectation despite Diminishing Returns. My intent is to give context to subsequent Multicore discussions in and beyond this event. I will do this by looking at 'Efficiency' in a context of increasingly Diminishing Returns This will lead quite naturally to Multicore (CMP); its rationale Diminishing Returns. This will lead quite naturally to Multicore (CMP); its rationale and its role. But will also raise questions about the way(s) forward ... as technology moves out of the market driving seat. 1

Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

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Keynote at the MP Workshop Bristol 5sep11

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Page 1: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Abstract ... Why does it take millions of transistors to realise the broadcast radio receiver

done in five in the 70's? Why are there millions of lines of software in products that are not programmable? And why do we throw things away before they break? Theare not programmable? And why do we throw things away before they break? The last 40 years saw the exponential growth of silicon capacity and the technology lead markets that ensued. Complexity was never an obstacle whilst design cost was 2nd order, but now that limits are upon us it is also apparent that people buy , p pp p p yproducts not technology ... so we strive to deliver elevated expectation despite Diminishing Returns.

My intent is to give context to subsequent Multicore discussions in and beyond this event. I will do this by looking at 'Efficiency' in a context of increasingly Diminishing Returns This will lead quite naturally to Multicore (CMP); its rationaleDiminishing Returns. This will lead quite naturally to Multicore (CMP); its rationale and its role. But will also raise questions about the way(s) forward ... as technology moves out of the market driving seat.

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Page 2: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

1v0

Progress:Prof. Ian PhillipsPrincipal Staff Eng’r,

ARM [email protected]

Progress:Despite the Law of

Visiting Prof. at ...

pDiminishing Returns

Contribution to Industry Award 2008

ORWhatever happened to the 6 transistor radio?

Award 2008

Multi-Processor Workshop5sep11

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Things Haven’t Always Things Haven’t Always Been Like This ...!Been Like This ...!

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A Moment of Retrospection I learned all I know in the past!

... I just have more of it than most people!

I’ll take you back 36yrs to 1975 ... New: Degree, Home, Job, Wife, Baby, Car, Phone ...

Mk1 H man bab C1975 M k’N’ M d H t C1975

M l th t d !Mk1: Ian Phillips

C1975

Mk1: Human baby C1975Aka Dylan-Paul Phillips

Mark’N’: Mud-Hut C1975Aka: 5 Manor Close.

4

... More-or-less the same today!C1975

Page 5: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

1975: Technology Products

Vauxhall Viva HB SL90

GPO Type 706 Telephone

5

... Recognisably the same, but very different today.

Page 6: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

1975: Semiconductor Electronics Domestically we had...

Portable Radio Pocket Calculator Pocket Calculator Hi-Fi (Partial) Colour TV (Partial)

... That’s about all!

Professionally we had... TI SR 51 Calculator 1975Professionally we had...

Computers & First PCs Radio Receivers Satellites

BeoVision 3500 c1975 c1975

Satellites Under-Sea Cables Transmitters (Partial)

TV C (P ti l) TV Cameras (Partial) Telephony (Partial) Stuart 5 Transistor Radio

1975

IBM 220PX c1975

6

IBM 220PX c1975

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2010: Electronics Everywhere but Nowhere

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Confusing Technology Confusing Technology with Products ...with Products ...PP

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The Computer ... Or Is It?

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Computer: A Machine for Computing ... Computing ...

... A general term for algebraic (mathematical) manipulation of data ...

F( t )NumeratedPhenomena

Processed Data/Informationy=F(x,t,s)Phenomena

IN (x)Information

OUT (y)

... State and Time are factors in this. It can include phenomena ranging from human thinking to calculations

with a narrower meaning. Wikipedia

Usually used it to exercise analogies (models) of real-world situations; Frequently in real-time.q y

... No mention of Implementation Technology in this!

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Planet Motion Computer – Orrery c1700MechanicalTechnology

• Inventor: George Graham (1674-1751)

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• Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!)

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Babbage's Difference Engine 1837

Th diff i i t f b f l b d f 1 t N E h l i bl t t d i l b Th l ti

(Re)construction c2000

MechanicalTechnology

The difference engine consists of a number of columns, numbered from 1 to N. Each column is able to store one decimal number. The only operation the engine can do is add the value of a column n + 1 to column n to produce the new value of n. Column N can only store a constant, column 1 displays (and possibly prints) the value of the calculation on the current iteration.

c 000

Computer for Calculating Tables: A Basic ALU Engine

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Computer for Calculating Tables: A Basic ALU Engine

Page 13: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Enigma ~1940MechanicalTechnology

Data Encryption/Decryption Computer

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Data Encryption/Decryption Computer

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Colossus Computer 1944Valve/Mechanical

Technology

Code Breaking Computer: A Data Processor

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Code-Breaking Computer: A Data Processor

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Digital Computer – Baby 1947 (Reconstruction)

Valve/SoftwareTechnology

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General Purpose, Quantised Time and Data, (Digital) Electronic Computing

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Analogue Computer – AKAT c1960Transistor Technology

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General Purpose, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing

Page 17: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Evolution of Radio

Tele-Verta Radio

BTH

Tele Verta Radio4 Valves

1 Rectifier Valve

c1945

Evoke DAB Radio100 M Transistors

2-3 Embedded Processors

Crystal Set1 Diode

c1925

Bush Radio7 Transistors

1 Diode

2-3 Embedded Processors

c2005

c1960

Ian’s ‘Span’

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Radio as Computation ...Valve

TechnologyTransistor Technology

Integrated CircuitTechnology

Vrf=Vi*100

Vi

Vrf

Vif

Vro='Bandpass'(Vif*1000)

VroVif=Vrf*Vlo

Vlo

Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)

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Single-Task, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing

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Products Make Business 21c Businesses have to be Operations and Competition is Global and so are Investors Nationality has little meaningNationality has little meaning

Business needs End-Customers buy Products, not Technology

Technologies enable Product Options Business-Models make Money

New Products are Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised New Technology increases Cost/Risk ...

... But does not always increase Value HW, SW, Mechanics, Optics, etc are (just) means to an end!

... New Technology ≠ Market Success (Any More)

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High Performance Computing (HPC) The exponential progression of

Moores Law has enabled thefantastic computation power we now take for granted ...

A F T f h dli bbi A Few Tens of headline-grabbing

A Few Hundred Million visibleA Few Hundred Million visible

... BUT...... BUT...

Tens of Billions of invisibleubiquitous

... Gives impression that General Purpose Digital Computation is what it is all about.

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Page 21: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

PPProducts are Solutions; Products are Solutions; Not The OtherNot The Other--Way Way Round ...Round ...

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Embedded Computing Is ... Entertainment Remote Control Security Televisions

ID C d ID Cards Memory Logistics Logistics Transport Bankingg Manufacturing Energy Communications Medical

t t t

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... etc, etc, etc.

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High Performance (Embedded) ComputingObvious:

Business ModelA th ti

Less-Obvious:

Infrastructure ... Manufacture and Distribution

Aesthetics Performance Brand & Image

Fi h

Manufacture and Distribution Road network, Fuel supply, Tyres Service network & Training Sales and Marketing, etc

Finance schemes Dealership Warranty, etc

Technologies Internal Combustion Engine ... Bearings, Casting, Metal forming,

Paint Aerodynamics Glass RubberPaint, Aerodynamics, Glass, Rubber, Suspension ...

Manufacturing, Reliability, Quality ... Electronic Systems

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The Evolution of Customer(kind) Universe – 13.6ByrEarth – 4.5Byr

(Us!) – appeared 35,000 yr ago ‘Developed’ from Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) 100,000 yr ago Primary Objective: Survive Nature (1,000 generations)Primary Objective: Survive Nature (1,000 generations)

- appeared ~2,000 yr ago Pythagoras Socrates Plato Aristotle Archimedes Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, ... Objective: Understand Nature (100 gen.)

- appeared ~1,000 yrs ago

Pythagoras

Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad) Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad) Objective: Manipulate Nature (50 gen.)

Galileo

- just 260 yrs ago Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n) Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation Objective: Exploit Nature (10 gen.) Brunell

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... Remember: Real (Cro-Magnon) Customers Don't Buy Technology!

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The iConic Must-Have Product ...

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... Cool Design(California) & Manufacture(China) !

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... Most Design Never Noticed or Valued

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The Threshold of Magic 1: Clarke: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Everybody has a threshold, beyond which Functionality is Indistinguishable From Magic1!

Ch i l S t Chemical Systems Biological Systems Economic Systemsy Electronic Systems

The Incandescent Light:The Incandescent Light:is the for most non-scientific, but well educated people!but well educated people!

... Its not a crime, to Not Understand Technology!

... The crime is not realising people don’t when you

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are the one who suffers as a result!

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AllAll Technologies Are Technologies Are Important ...Important ...pp

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Exciting Technology ... At the ModuleInside the Case

iPhone 4's vibrator motor. rear-facing 5 MP camera with 720p video at 30 FPS, tap to focus feature, and LED flash.,

30 Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

Page 31: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Exciting Technology ... At the ModuleInside the Case

The Control Board.

31 Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

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Exciting Technology ... Inside the ModuleInside The Control Board (a-side) Visible Design-Team Members...

A4 P ifi d b A l d i d d f t d b S A4 Processor, specified by Apple, designed and manufactured by Samsung ... The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power. Inc. ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (also other ARM CPUs and IP?)

ST-Micro (3 axis gyroscope) - (ARM Partner) Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner) Skyworks (GSM)

GPS

Triquint (GSM PA) Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner)

GPS

Bluetooth, EDR &FM

32 Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

Page 33: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Exciting Technology ... Inside the Module

Inside The Control Board (b-side)

Visible Design-Team Members ... Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner) Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner)g ( ) ( ) AKM (Magnetic Sensor) Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner)

Invisible Design-Team Members ...g OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ... Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ...

33 Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

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Exciting Technology ... Inside ‘The Chip’

Memory ‘Package’

P SOC Di

2 Memory Dies‘Package’

Processor SOC DieGlue4-Layer Platform

Package’

The A4 SIP Package (Cross-section)

Package

The A4 SIP Package (Cross section) The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls. Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.

Putting the RAM close to the processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts power.g p y, g p Unknown Mfr (Memory) Samsung/ARM (Processor) Unknown (SIP Technology)

34 Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

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The Phone: Hetrogeneous Computation ...

• About 20 Chips in a Smart-Phone

• Processing: • Audio, Video, RF,

Touch, Temperature, Orientation G ForceOrientation, G-Force, Magnetism, Power

• Core Functions: • GSM GPS WiFi• GSM, GPS, WiFi,

3/4G Net, BlueTooth• Application Functions:

• Applets Games Mail• Applets, Games, Mail, Diary, Address-book, etc.

... Multi-Processing before we... Multi Processing before we open the ‘App’n Processor’!

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... Partitioning: The difference between a good and bad Product!

Page 36: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Commodity HMP In Qual. Today...Pocket ‘Super-Computer’ ... 10 Programmable Processors

4 A9 P (2 2) 10 000 MIP Block-Diagram for a typical 40nm Mobile Computing & Smart-Phone Platform Chip

4 x A9 Processors (2x2): ~10,000 MIP 4 x MALI 400 Fragment Proc: ~1Gp/s 1 x MALI 400 Vertex Processor 1 x MALI Video CoDec

Plus Dedicated Processors Smart MMUs Smart Interrupt ControllersSmart Interrupt Controllers Smart DMA Engines Smart QoS and Power Mgt Smart Cache & Memory Repair

Plus ... Customer Additions/Peripherals!

~15 Proc ~2GHz 1-2W... ~15 Proc., ~2GHz, 1-2W... Strong Application Focus

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30nm Target Architectures

About 50MTrAbout 50MTr

About 50KTr

D li i 5 d (A hit t P Cl k)

37

... Delivering ~5x speed (Architecture + Process + Clock)

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Th ’ D Th ’ D There’s Design; There’s Design; and there’s and there’s

Technical Design ...Technical Design ...

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Design A Part-Formalised Process ... Partition and Refine until every Thread has identified an Established

(Reuse) path to Physical ImplementationTh C t t d V if Then Construct and Verify ...

K Li k f

Concept Phone Actual Phone

Known-Links from Model-to-Reality (Reuse)

Hig

h

AAA cellTFT-LCD

ElectronicsGaAs Front End

Reu

se

H

Baseband

Std Radio Chip

Hie

rarc

hy o

f

ARM CPUSignal Processing

MALI MPULo

w

HHW Support

FP Engine

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Gates/MC.Code

Page 40: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

F2Functional A l iF1

F2

F4

F5 Analysis

F3

F4

(F5)(F2)

Thre

ad

( )(F2)

HW1 HW2 HW3 HW4H d I t f

RTOS/Drivers(F1) (F3)

E ti Pl tf

Hardware Interface

Bus(es) Processor(s)

40

Execution Platform

Page 41: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

The Real-Time Execution of Models It is about creating a Functional-Model and an Execution-Platform

for it, to meet Functional and Non-Functional needs.D i A hi hi l th ti l f M d l R fi t d Design: A hierarchical mathematical process of Model Refinement and Verification; based on (Heuristic) Architectural decisions.

Implementation: Process of ‘bringing up’ and Validating the Functional-Model on the Physical Execution-Platform.

A good Solution is one thatA good Solution is one that ...1. Meets a valued human need2. Is Manufacturable to support a Competitive Price/Biz Model3. Works at least as well as your Competitors4. Scores well on Aesthetic (Non-Functional) criteria

A bad Solution is one where the Technology Shows!

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And so to And so to MultiMulti--Processors ...Processors ...PP

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The Argument for (C)MP Potentially Much Better Power Efficiency than Large/Fast Uni-Processor Power is a Major Problem ... On Die and In System. But 10x-100x improvement required!

Potential to deliver Higher Performance than Uni-Processor Can Amdahl’s Law be broken?Can Amdahl s Law be broken? For GP applications difficult to see improvement after 3/4 processors

Potential to handle Redundancy Schemes Many Processor ‘Tiles’ with NoC Connectivity Potentially a small % malfunction can be ‘re-routed’

Potential to offer a Scalable Standard Implementation Potential to offer a Scalable, Standard Implementation Reduces Chip Design/Masks/Qual’n/Production Cost by ~90% Needs a new (tbd!) GP Software Methodology Must work with Legacy (90% of designs are inherited).

... Can CMP actually deliver any (let alone all) of this?

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... Can CMP actually deliver any (let alone all) of this?

Page 44: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

Amdahl’s Law is Alive and Well

100% parallel32

24

28 Speedup on parallel processors is limited by thesequential portion of the program

20

peed

up Sequential portion need not be largeto significantly constrain speedup!

95% parallel12

16

Max

imum

sp to significantly constrain speedup!

90% parallel8

M

75% parallel50% parallel

0

4

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

44

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32Number of cores

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Many (C)MP Technologies ... even in the UK Transputer (Inmos 1978)

Highly Parallel Apps (Graphics) Lots of history; no success ...y

Pixelfusion – 1,536 processors/chip

Clearspeed –p 192 full 64 bit arch/chip

Picochip – Aimed at 3G Pico-Cells

Spinnaker – 18 processors (Scal. to 1^6) 18,000 neurons (Scal. To 10^9)

XMOS – New version of Transputer

Occam HandleC – HW synthesys (See also SystemC)

OpenCL – Smartphone's / Tablets (GPGPU)

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... Success(?) requires a End-Product and Market of appropriate Scale.

Page 46: Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

OpenCL Enables Heterogeneity

Plug-in architecture Mali-T604 Vithar GPU ARM/NEON Custom Device Custom Device Video Decoder

Discovery of computational units Scheduling of work

... It does not automatically solve “which computation where”

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Architecture: A Viable Mix of Technology YES: Power is a Major Concern ... Power-Efficiency the way of recovering it.

Away from.. ..towards.. ..wherever possible.

But so is Productivity, NRE Cost, TTM, Quality ... Reuse: As much as possible: Reuse: As much as possible:

Mech, Elect, SW, Acoustic, RF, Stacks, OS, Displays, Keyboards, etc. Teams: Use people who know how to do the work (duh!) Use External Expertise: It is seldom a differentiating factor in your Product. Producible: Make something that can be economically made (duh!) Performance: Competitive; don’t push the bounds of possibility.Performance: Competitive; don t push the bounds of possibility. New Technology: As little as possible.

And so are Aesthetics ... Colour, Style, Package, Availability, Quality, Business Model, etc ...

... Remember: The Product is the way to deliver

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a Compelling End-Customer Experience.

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Conclusions Multi-Processing makes sense in lots of Products today... It will seldom be entire solutions (ie: Small markets) It will seldom be homogeneous If the Work-Load and Programming Models are good.

Physical Concurrency makes sense in lots of ProductsPhysical Concurrency makes sense in lots of Products... Mechanical, CPU/GPU, Optical, RF, MEM, SAW, etc Simplifies Productivity, Design, Qualification, Quality and Reuse

Few Products (None) have the luxury of a Clean-Sheet Design... Legacy is unavoidable

CPU is not the answer for everything CPU is not the answer for everything... ‘Software’ is amongst the least energy efficient technology DSP, Video HW and GPU can be (much) better But Analogue and Mechanical are best

Products can be Enabled or Disabled MP Technology

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... Products can be Enabled or Disabled MP Technology

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Th ENTh ENThe END ...The END ...Th k f LTh k f LThanks for ListeningThanks for Listening

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Reading & References

The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Disruptive Tech.) by Clayton M. Christensen: HBS Press, 1997

Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology (Research in 21C)b H Willi Ch b h HBS P 2003 by Henry William Chesbrough : HBS Press, 2003

The World Is Flat (Globalisation) by Thomas L. Friedman: Penguin, 2005

Staying Power (Business)y g ( ) by Michael Cusumano: Oxford, 2010

A Short History of Nearly Everything (A different view on what we know) by Bill Bryson: Black Swan, 2003y y

The Voyages of the Beagle (Scientific Observation) By Charles Darwin,1860

An Essay on the Principles of Population (Natural Competition)B Th M l h 1789 By Thomas Malthus,1789

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