New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex Environments

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by Paolo Bragatto INAIL – Ricerca, Certificazione e Verifica - Centro Ricerca

Text of New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex Environments

  • 1. Paolo Bragatto INAIL Ricerca, Certificazione e Verifica Centro RicercaSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaNew Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex EnvironmentsMonteporzio Catone (RM) ITALIA 1/14 1

2. Why the Workers Compensation Authority in this conference? INAIL is not just compensation but a global protection system for all workers in Italy. INAIL objectives include also the rehabilitation of work accident victims, the reduction of accident at works, .. Research Certification Area is in charge of research on prevention and safety at work, control and verification of work equipment, installations and establishments. The Safety of major industrial plants and infrastructures, involve both workers (employed, contractors) and local communities, as well as land and environment. Safety issues cannot be cut with a knife!Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaA very short introduction2/14 2 3. Summary How and why the concepts of risks (and safety) are changing May Science and technologies make our communities safer? From Fundamentals to Practice (a few examples from INAIL research area) Suggestions for Practitioners and RegulatorsSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Safety and Risk in modern Industries3/14 3 4. SAFETY or RISK? Since the birth of industry, SAFETY was a keyword (e.g. the first code for pressure equipment safe design and operation in UK in 1854). Typical command & control approach safety based. For each sector codes and rules addressing design, construction and service phases. Public Inspector bodies to enforce regulations. Stregth of C&C approach: effective, complete, objective Weakness of C&C approach: rigid, separate, inadequate both for complex systems (with interferences) and for very dynamic (fast growing) industries Operators responsibility: compliance with codes, rules and regulationsSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaFundamentals: Safety4/14 4 5. In industries, the word RISK entered just with nuclear power plant, 1950/60. A few severe chemical accidents (Seveso, Flixborough) in the 70s demonstrated the C&C Safety Based approach inadequate for major accident hazard. Integrated approach. Equipment & plant safety with human & organizational system, land use planning, Operators must manage risks in an integrated and dynamic way, following essential safety requirements, adopting management systemsFlixborough (UK) Giugno 1974Beek (NL) Novembre 1975Seveso (I) Luglio 1976Bhopal (India) Dicembre 1984Basel (CH) Novembre 1986Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaFrom Safety to Risk5/14 5 6. The risk management approach in EU Directives for Major Accident Control Seveso I 1985, Seveso II 1996, Seveso II Amendement 2003, Seveso III 2012. Seveso Keystones: Mandatory Safety Management System Audit program organized by Competent Authorities Shared Knowledge About Accident Integration with Land Use PlanningBaia Mare (RO) Jan 2000Enschede (NL) May 2000Toulouse (F) Sep. 2001Buncefield (UK) Dec. 2005Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaRisk Management in Major Accident Hazard6/14 6 7. Risk Assessment shyly entered Occupational Safety legislation with EU Directive 89/391, implemented in D.Lgs 626/94 on occupational Safety & Health In Italy the revolution with D.Lgs 81/08, which stressed risk assessment documents. Furthermore Safety Management Systems are highly promoted. (premium discounts, incentives, responsibility exemption..) No more deaths at work!Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaRisk Management in Occupational Safety7/14 7 8. Traditional Risk definitionISO GUIDE 51 Safety ed. 1999Corollaries: Risk is a number Phenomenon has to be well known, so both severity and likelihood may be evaluated in a quantitative way. Thresholds for Risk acceptability Inherent safety is an Utopia Risk Separation (e.g. Occupational, Major Accident, Natural)Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaRisk = probability of occurrence of harm x severity of that harm8/14 8 9. Societal Risk in a Nutshell FN Curves 10-3 10-4 10-710-6Risk Map10-8Equipment Reliability10-9Weather Database10-5FrequenciesImpact ScenariosExpectedAccident Math. ModelsSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaPopolation Database1101001000Number of Fatalities 9/14 9 10. Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaIn the 80s Pioneer studies on Area Risks, aimed to address decisions about new installations, based on Societal Risk and FN curves approach. After these studies major European Industrial areas has been well managed until today.Ravenna IT 1987Rijmond NL 1980Canvey Island UK 1978Risk Based Approach: Success Stories10/14 10 11. Safety (Occupational, Industrial, Transport) and Security may be definitely separate? Inherent Safety, why not? 9/11/2001Concequences of financial actions are known?Just Probability to measure Uncertainty ?Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaEpochal Disasters9/17/2011 11/14 11 12. Thailand Nov. 2011 Flooded Automotive DistrictSpain Sept. 2013 Santiago High Speed TrainUSA April 2010 Deepwater Offshore DisasterRussia February 2013 Cheliabinsk Meteorite DisasterJapan Heartquacke +Tsunami + Nuclear April 2011Italy Viareggio LPG Train Accident July 2009Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaVery recent Disasters12/14 12 13. Jan. 2012 Tresana Gas pipilineMay 2013 Genoa Jolly Nero Cargo Ship TragedyJan. 2012 Costa Concordia DisasterJuly 2013 Pescara Fireworks Factory DisasterMay 2012 Emilia HarthquackeFeb. 2012 Italy Big SnowSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaVery recent Disasters13/14 13 14. KK UU model Safety Awareness - Conscious Competence Unknown Known RisksAleatory Uncertainties Lack of information - Awareness Known Unknown RisksEpistemic Uncertainties Lack of Knowledge Unknown Unknown Risks Lack of AwarenessThe Black SwanSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Known Known Risks14/14 14 15. Risk = effect of uncertainty on the achievement of objective ISO GUIDE 73 Risk Management Vocabulary 2009 ISO 31000 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines 2009 ISO 31010 Risk Management Risk Assesment Technicques 2009Coming soon Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaISO 31000 Risk definitionISO 31014 Risk Management Guidance for implementation of ISO 31000 15/14 15 16. Risk Management at Industrial PlantobjectivesSatisfy users & shareholdersSafe working ambientPositive perception by local communityuncertaintiesUnplanned InterruptionInjury at workMajor AccidentmatterEquipment ReliabilityOccupational SafetyIndustrial SafetyActivityLegislationEquipment controlEquipment verificationD.Lgs 81/2008Safety Report + Safety AuditsSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaRisk = effect of uncertainty on the achievement of objectiveDir. 96/82/CE 16/14 16 17. D.Lgs 81/2008 Dir. 96/82/CE IntegratedEquipment controlManagement Equipment verificationArt 71 D.Lgs 81/08 DM 11/4/11 (INAIL, ASL, + soggetti abilitati )System Safety Report + Safety Audits Authorization Safety Report Periodical AuditSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaPlant Integrated Management System(VVF,ARPA,INAIL) 17/14 17 18. SystemssafetySettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaLand & EnvironmentCitizen Safety & HealthmngmntOccupational Safety & HealthHealth Structure Patient SafetyMobilityPower & Process IndustryInfrastructuresGridGoods TransportTrade & LogisticInternet - Cyber SpaceComplex Risk managementsecurity 18/14 18 19. Does Science make us safer?Genoa 2013 Science and Technology make our communities safer?Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaGenoa 2009 & 2012 Science and Technology make the work Safer?19/14 19 20. Science and RiskMore Information less Risk (if Knowledgeis complete) More Knowledge less Risk (if Knowledge is lacking) Shannon 1949 Uncertainty > Information Entropy De Finetti 1970 Probability does not esisteIf you make work (aquire information/ make inspection) you reduce riskSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica2009 Risk Definiton Uncertainty RiskIf you make research (increase Knowledge) you reduce risk 20/14 20 21. Knowledge Based Inspections Equipment Critical Structures Degradation MechanismTIMESettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaRisk based Inspections =InspectionRisk / EntropyRisk Based InspectionInformation Degradation 21/14 21 22. Precautionary principle adopted in Europe in situation of scientific uncertainty. fundamentalist application of preacutionary principle could stop all innovations in Europe, thus it is essential investigate safety at very early stages, before industrial applications Research essential for susbstainable economic growth in Europe include: Safety of Nanomaterials and Nanotechnologies Safety of Green technologies Safety of Advanced biotechnologiesSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaRisk Research vs Preacution Principle22/14 22 23. Disappearing KnowledgeExperience underestimated, is forgotten Knowledge, hidden in official documents, is covered by dust, then dies and its lost forever Revive continuously Safety Knowledge to prevent accident Involve experienced Personnel in developing Safety System Learn from experience, including accident, near misses, and positive histories.Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaThe relentless effect of Entropy Law:23/14 23 24. Information managementExperience Knowledge ManagementSafety - Secuity Management SystemInformation managementSettore Ricerca, Certificazione a VerificaSharing Information or Knowledge24/14 24 25. Operator contracts a work to a maintenance company.Contractor worker who must be provided with the full equipmentThe Operator must provide safety infos to the contractors (permit to work) The Operator safety manager knows the environment related hazards, including major accidents(goggles, face-shield, masks, gloves, boots, earmuffs, safety helmetsContractor firms safety manager know