IDMP: Activity 5.6 upgrading

agricultural drought monitoring and

forecasting - UA and MD

1st Workshop IDMP in CEE,

15-16 October 2013, Hodrusa Hamre, Slovakia

Main outcomes

Upgraded climate-zoning of Ukraine territory and Dniester

River Basin territory

Drought risk maps for agro sector of Ukraine and Dniester RB – identification of drought prone areas

Development of forecasting models for identification of crop

yield losses caused by droughts (3 crops) UA

Development of proposals for the precipitation harvesting

and practices for moisture conservation in agro lands - MD

Drought remedial measures for the agro sector

Policy makers and stakeholders awareness raising on DM,

planning

Agro climatic zoning of Ukrainene

Made in 1990s based on meteorogical data 1956-1985 for efficient using of climatic resources and increasing productivity of crops.

To assess water holding capacity of the territory.

Key index for zoning- hydro-thermic index Selyaninova (HTI)

ГТК = R/0.1∑ T

R – Sum of precipitation for period with air t > +10º С

∑ T - sum of average daily air t >+10º С

3 agro-climatic zones

Marshy- possibility of soil droughts 0-10%;

Forest-Steeper - possibility of droughts 15-40%;

Steeper - droughts possibility 40-70%.

Agricultural climatic zones

Marshy-over norm moisture zone Annual precipitation – 570-760 мм Forest-steppe-normal moiture zone Annual precipitation – 575-650 мм Steppe- lower moisture zone Annual precipitation – 350-540 мм

Marshy

Forest-steppe

Steppe-

Agricultural climatic zones Ukraine

Anomalies of regional

average annual air

temperature

(°С) in Ukraine as

compared with the

baseline period (1961-1990)

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1901-

1910

1911-

1920

1921-

1930

1931-

1940

1941-

1950

1951-

1960

1961-

1970

1971-

1980

1981-

1990

1991-

2000

2000-

2010

2011-

2012

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Anomalies of the average

annual air temperature

(° С) during the period of

1989-2012 years as

compared with the baseline

period (1961-1990)

• Uninterrupted data of 136 stations for 60-140 observation period were analyzed for Ukraine

• Temperature and .precipitation data analyzed

• Nowadays climate of Ukraine is characterized by unsymmetrical warming in space ( on territory)

especially in winter and summer months. Average annual t increases more then on 0,8°С.

Increasing t in cold period is in average 1,35°С, in warm period – 1,1°С.

• Average annual precipitation quantity in Ukraine has no changed. For base line period1961-

1990 – 576 mm, for period 1991-2012 - 595 mm.

• There is substantial changes in the precipitation distribution during year. In winter (January,

February) there is a decreasing on 1/5. in summer the precipitation quantity has increased on 5-

15% in average.

• There is no positive effect of precipitation increasing in summer time because of intensive

increasing of air t in the same time.

Annual amount of

precipitation in Ukraine, mm

• Changes of

precipitation

amount (% of the

norm of 1961-

1990) in Ukraine

by months for the

period of 1991-

2012 years.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII год

%

• Planning for the next 6 months

• Analysis of long term data of water holding capacity of different laywers of

soil (0-20 and 0-100 cm)

• The experimental data on accessible water holding ( for winter wheat and

spring barley) in typical soils for each of zones on test fields

• for changes assessment during 1961-2012 the data of 15 meteorological

stations will be used.

• Trends in soil water holding under climate change will be analyzed.

• The droughts risk zones changing possibility will be preliminary assessed.

Agroclimatic zones of the Republic of Moldova based

on the annual precipitation sum

River basin in the Republic of Moldova

Pru t

EdineţSoroca

R bni aî ţB l iă ţ

Orhei

Dub sariă

Chi in uş ă

H nce tiî ş

Ungeni

Bender

Tiraspol

C u eniă ş

Leovo

Comrat

Cahul

R

O

M

Ă

NI

A

U

K

R

A

I

N

A

1

23

4

1

6

3 8

2

5

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

8

10

11

2

1

7

Schema

regiunilor teritoriale şi bazinele de apă a Republicii Moldova

Bazinele rîurilor principale

Nistru

Dunărea

Bazinele rîurilor de ordinea INistru

Dunărea

: 1- ; 2- ; 3- ; 4- ;5- ; 6- ; 7- ; 8- ;

.

;1- ; 2- ; 3- ; 4- ; 5- ; 6- ;7- ; 8- ; 9- ;10- ; 11- ; ; ; ; ; .

:

Camenca BelociCiornaia Iagorlîc RăutIcheli Bîc Botna Cogîlnic

Ciaga Hadjidăr etc

Prut Lopatinca RacovăţCiugur Camenca Gîrla-MareDelia Brătuleanca NîrnovaLăpuşna Sărata Larga

Ialpuh Lunga Catlabuh Chitai Cahul

; ; ;

Danube basin

Dnester basin

Steppe zone with annual

precipitation level 270-300

mm

Forest steppe zone

with precipitation

level 500-550 mm

Statistical data on the slope inclination on the arable lands in

Moldavian part of the Dnester basin in th. ha

Arable

lands

< 1

degre

e

1-2

degre

e

2-3

degre

e

3-5

degre

e

5-7

degre

e

7-10

degre

e

10-15

degre

e

> 15

degre

e

1175 234 210 240 270 155 28 29 6

There are 178 soil types on the territory of Moldova (including Dnester basin).

All soils differently degraded and various types contain different content of moisture.

Experimental fields for moisture research (superficial

runoff measurements - solid and liquid part)

Moisture determination is conducted on a scientific experiment of the

Institute of Pedology, and Agrochemistry and Soil Protection “N. Dimo” ,

which has 500 hectares of the experimental fiedls in the southern part of the

Republic of Moldova with different types ofcrops.

The fields are placed on the slopes with a different slant: 1-30, 3-50, >70.

Fire of the straw after harvesting

Annual temperature modifications 1887-2012 (a) and

anomalies for the period 1961-1990 (b)

-3

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

18

87

18

89

18

91

18

93

18

95

18

97

18

99

19

01

19

03

19

05

19

07

19

09

19

11

19

13

19

15

19

17

19

19

19

21

19

23

19

25

19

27

19

29

19

31

19

33

19

35

19

37

19

39

19

45

19

47

19

49

19

51

19

53

19

55

19

57

19

59

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

Annual precipitation in the Dnester basin

y = 0,6448x + 484,88

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1891

1893

1895

1897

1899

1901

1903

1905

1907

1909

1911

1913

1915

1917

1919

1921

1923

1925

1927

1929

1931

1933

1935

1937

1939

1941

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Further steps

• Identification of the moisture retention capacities of soil in different parts of

the Dnester basin

• Harvest losses due to the different moisture conservation practices in

Moldova (Dnester basin)

• Identification of vulnerable areas due to the moisture content in soils

• Estimation of best soil processing and landscape management practices of

agricultural lands.

• Development of recommendations (hand book) for farmers, sectoral

authorities etc on soil moisture conservation practices