FJORD DIGITAL TRENDS 2011 Editor:

Christian Lindholm, Managing Partner

LIQUID EXPERIENCES

DIGITAL

MAGAZINES

GAME MECHANICS

SMART OBJECTS

SUPERPHONES

LIFESTREAMS

MOBILES

PAYMEN

TS

EXPERIENCE WARS

FREEMIUM

MOBILE GAMING

SOCIAL EVERYTHING

FACEBOOK

APPLE

NOKIA

MICROSOFT

LIKE

CHECK-INS

WANT ZYNGA

TABLETS

ANDROID

ASUS

HTC HP

MEEGO

BITPIPES

SERVICE PLATFORMS

CLOUD SERVICES COMPANIONS

CAR AS MOBILE OS

RICH OS

iOS

WEBOS

WINDOWS MOBILE 7

SAMSUNG

LG

MOTOROLA

MULTITOUCH

GESTURES

OS WAR Mobile Wallet

MONETISATION

INTERNET APPLIANCES

SHARING

NFC

SINGLE SIGN-ON

3D

CONTEXT

WRIST OS FROM NOISE

LIFEBOATS FOR THE

‘APP FLOOD’

GOING WITH THE FLOW:

‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’

DIGITAL MAGAZINES:

STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL

PIMP YOUR LIFE,

GAMING STYLE

SMART OBJECTS CONNECT

WITH THE MAINSTREAM

‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D

- AND BEYOND

DISCOVERING

‘LIFESTREAMS’ MOBILES GAIN MORE

CURRENCY

EXPERIENCE WARS:

THE LIVING ROOM IS THE

BATTLEGROUND

TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH

YOUR PHONE

THE CLOUD

BECOMES A KITE

TO TRENDS

LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ Consumers are drowning in a sea

of apps. Fjord believes

companies that explore

innovative navigation patterns to

help consumers cope with the

„App Flood‟ will reap big rewards

in 2011.

After the gold rush, the app market is maturing. From within the industry, we‟re seeing the number of platforms stabilise around key operating systems, and it‟s inevitable that the apps model will spread to PCs and web platforms. And from the user‟s point of view, now that the market is flooded with apps of every possible description, we‟ll see relevance, discovery and substance become key to success. Users will demand curation vehicles to help them, such as app search engines, innovative app ranking boards and new types of recommendation engines. The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ with richer interaction tailored to each platform, more clever ways to get users back to their apps. Some will even grow into application suites, providing common services like single sign-on. Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into an application framework.

App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigm through better search functions, more elaborate collaborative filtering and social networks. We should also see the launch of app stores hosted by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards. Amazon may also move into the apps market, building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve a social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd. Matching the right user to the right app is set to be a major opportunity to monetize.

LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’

LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’

Apps search and recommendation

company MIMVI will get traffic

Social reading platforms will

emerge, Amazon could become a

major player making it the

Facebook of readers

Aggregators such as

Appolicious would benefit

from launching app stores

Google Chrome web apps could

enable simple monetisation of the

web

Top grossing, most used, app of the week,

staff favourite, highest ranking are the new

metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will

be derived from them

Service design innovators are

finally creating services that can

be fluidly experienced on any

screen, anywhere. We call this

„Liquid Experience‟.

In 2011 a liquid experience will be

a core part of every significant

design brief.

GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’

GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ Creating liquid experiences for users means

engineering the flow between types of screen

and interface.

2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can

be fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere,

finally living up to the promise of cross-platform

integration. Ensuring a liquid design means

optimising for each platform, and ensuring they

combine perfectly.

For example, watching a movie as a passenger in

a car, and then seamlessly continuing your

viewing once at home: this will rapidly become a

typical everyday expectation for users.

Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turning

liquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are also

gathering momentum in this direction. Current

examples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and

„Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.

These are experiences set to break free from the

user‟s conventional frame of reference,

challenging our existing understanding of

„context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a

completely new approach to platforms. Liquid

experiences are horizontal by nature, for service

owners they become key engagement drivers

and important control points.

GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’

Facebook's „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are

spreading like water drops, many other

features of Facebook could turn liquid

BBC - The original Liquid

Experience is evolving to a

screen near you

Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be

expected to morph into all kinds of

forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a

great example of things to come

The Amazon Kindle – is becoming a

Liquid Experience with a whisper sync

client for any platform

DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Digital magazines are not only

searching for new business

models. They also face a more

fundamental problem: the

concept of a magazine needs to

be re-invented in the Tablet era.

DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Spurred by the success of the iPad and the

forthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines will

continue to develop digital concepts. But without

clear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness to

rethink fundamental issues is crucial.

Digital magazines face multiple problems - not

least the fact they often are simply too unwieldy

and over-designed. File sizes can present storage

and transmission issues that users are currently

not prepared to put up with. And audience

acquisition, retention and monetisation still

present formidable challenges.

The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟

boundary is particularly hard to manage.

„New Reading‟ will need to merge reading,

watching, commenting, sharing and editing into a

single activity – for this we lack a good verb.

Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse or

Elements are huge inspirations and could

become massive disruptors.

Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters -

be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy,

environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly

than ever.

Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary

and monetisation models to emerge that will

disrupt established titles. An analogue brand

does not carry the same value in a digital world

one click away.

DIGITAL MAGAZINES: STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL

Flipboard is the Netscape

browser for the Tablet era

Project is a new title in a new

media – expect more new

entrants. Content is still king

Bookshelves, and

magazine stands will

emerge in 2011.

Whomever owns the

news stand will own

something valuable as

it also becomes your

library

Expect incumbents to experiment in

the analogue to digital cross over and

fight for their magazine rack space

PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE Why not turn aspects of

everyday life into a game? Games

are steadily transforming our

experiences, bringing the

attitudes and rewards of gaming

into services, and we foresee

rapid growth for service design

leaders in this area.

PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE 2011 will see game mechanics being used as a

tool to engage users with social industries.

Games can make chores fun and necessities

novel. Companies who can influence social

movements will affect their numbers in 2011.

Game mechanics are influencing the real world.

Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come to

you when you want them.

The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare will

spread to a range of services, such as loyalty

cards, wellness and health services and most

importantly to marketing. Game mechanics will

become a core component of new marketing.

It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach being

used to change the world in 2011. Look carefully

at Foursquare and expect some very innovative

services to emerge.

PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE

Foursquare challenges

people to explore their city

using gaming mechanics

Reputely.com – a platform

which can implement gaming

mechanics to any website

Nike + gaming mechanics used

to drive sports activity through

an app

Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping

track of any activity from picking

mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe

one could get awarded for emptying

the dishwasher

Never underestimate the

power of badges, just look

at scouts all over the world

Game mechanics are the

serotonin of services

SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM 2011 will see smart objects bring

digital services into our physical

environments. While many of

these will be nothing more than

common objects paired with a

sensor and a data connection, a

few more sophisticated examples

will use smart objects to visualise

and interact with the digital

services already embedded in our

lives.

SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM It‟s finally time for smart objects to start making

their mark on our daily lives.

The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is now

increasingly moving out of university research

departments and into the marketplace - to meet

real end-consumer and business needs during

2011.

As more and more everyday objects are

embedded with sensors, these connected or

„smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate

automatically with each other. Unlike mobile

phones today, these smart object blend into our

offices and living environments to serve

dedicated functions, 24x7.

Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical

upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office,

home and car, similar to the way we buy apps to

extend functions of our phones today.

Paired with digital services that we already use

today, smart objects have the power to

transform our everyday lives. But the lack of a

common protocol may frustrate the most

ambitious plans in 2011.

SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM

Integrated systems for the

home offer a complete range

of home automation products

Streetline is a smart parking system

that gives drivers real-time

guidance to open parking spaces

Smart pill caps. A wireless signal

alerts base station if dose is

missed, alerting a nurse

Philips DirectLife calculates the

number of calories burned every

day from any movement made, not

just walking

Välkky knows when pedestrians

are going to cross streets and

starts flashing to alert drivers

Smart meters send readings to your

energy supplier automatically and

can include energy monitoring

‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND Forthcoming „Superphones‟ will

increasingly utilise 3D graphics

experiences and sophisticated uses

of space and time within their user

interfaces.

Natural UI solutions that appeared

first on gaming consoles, will migrate

to mobile devices in 2011.

‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND A new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge,

featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include

contextual time and place-aware interfaces -

turning them into „4D‟ experiences.

Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicated

graphics chips and new sensors enabling novel

experiences that may approach the feel of

artificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will

rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificial

intelligence to simplify mobile life.

These new devices will offer a bold challenge to

the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers)

paradigm of information access. We will no longer

simply jump into a menu structure or app, but

explore the environment and our social

connections using the phone as a magic wand for

the digital space.

As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is very

fast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV at

home - and glasses are not required.

We include a note of caution at this point,

however: no common standard exists, which

means that this new batch of devices may be

harder and more confusing to use before they

get easier.

But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟ll

see interfaces take us closer to the mobile device

as your „magic wand.‟

‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND

3D will allow designers to extend

experiences with „above‟, „inside‟

and „behind‟ style interactions

Hand gestures to manipulate

utility applications into a 3D

plane will become standard

Massive competition in next gen mobile

processors create a competitive focus

to the experience layer

The experience will smash the glowing

rectangle. The physical and the virtual

starts blurring

Kanzi is a technology for rapid

user interface design and

deployment

DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ What if you could never miss a

moment, never forget a thing -

throughout your life? 2011 will see

the emergence of this powerful new

idea within consumer expectations,

and services that combine to make it

a reality.

DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of people

uploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟ll

be able to combine this across multiple online

services, generating meaning from data already

online.

Existing services will aggregate and combine to

offer users new ways to index their digital lives.

The raw materials are already there: take a

user's Facebook status updates, twitter updates,

digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins,

text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube

video uploads and credit card statements, and

you would have a very complete picture of their

existence.

Our children will learn a lot more about us than

we did through a few old photographs - but we‟ll

need to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And

there‟s currently no service or standard to

support this kind of reflective exercise on users‟

online data.

Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLogging

services will continue to launch and enjoy wider

take up in 2011. These services will also influence

the mainstream as users become increasingly

concerned about the power of social networks to

reveal their personal histories.

Fjord believes specialised lifestream services will

grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions and

others start to provide the outputs that can be

„mashed up‟ into lifestreams.

DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’

Evernote has become an

international powerhouse of

remembering converting 20%

of users into paying customers

Memolane captures photos,

music, tweets, posts, and more

for people to view and share in

one place

ViconRevuec is a wearable

digital camera that takes

photos without intervention

Mappiness provides streams

of social happiness. Pixelpipe

are the smart plumbers of the

social network

TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we

pay for goods. Mobile phones will

start to become the new credit cards,

as near field technology changes the

way we make everyday transactions.

TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we pay for

goods, with contactless payment taking the lead.

NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripe

for innovation as embedding the technology

within the mobile handset will open new

opportunities, expect the unexpected.

Additionally, data connections to banks through

mobile phones offer the security assurance that

both consumers and merchants need. Paired with

location-based deal hunting apps, shopping and

transaction opportunities will abound on mobile.

Bargain hunters have the best deal at their finger

tips. But being able to spend easily, especially

with the financial crisis still fresh in consumers'

minds, means that forward-looking banks will also

offer expenditure tracking and financial planning

tools to their customers.

We predict that consumers will relish the chance

to make simple transactions using their handsets,

and then learn to embrace additional

functionality. It will mean the end of being ripped

off.

TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE

Garanti Bank's commercial

NFC service in Turkey has

encouraged more to enter

the market

FeliCa is a contactless RFID

smart card system from Sony

MasterCard Mobile Payments

mean no looking for coins or a

card

Phoolah experimented with

the idea of embedding RFID

tags into mobile phone skins

Gemalto formed a partnership

with HiCo to provide mobile

phone coupons via NFC

THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT The huge success and sales of

Apple‟s iPad means that other device

manufacturers are rushing into the

market. Differentiation will be a

major challenge. We think it cannot

be done without solid service design.

We also think work will be

transformed by Tablets.

THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT We will see a massive flood of Tablet devices,

sparking a fever among users. The biggest fever

will be in innovative organisations wanting to

integrate Tablets into their workflows.

Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors will

aggressively enter this market, leading to major

challenges in the differentiation of their products.

Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tablets

without the support of an appropriate eco-

system.

A possible solution is to pair a device with a

service that is unique, and appropriate to the

hardware. A host of vertical tailored services will

emerge.

Tablets are not toys, they are the future of work.

A massive accessory market will grow around

Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utility

options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case.

But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their

support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloud

services.

THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT

Asus and Archos introduced

multi size Tablets to the

market for home and work

Input is what pundits complain about.

Casualness of interaction, battery life and

always on connectivity make it an

indispensible tool for the mobile workforce

Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power

most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat

for Apple long-term. Another threat is

Microsoft who are also expected to release a

Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will

scale well to Tablets. Blackberry Playbook. They

say, “you‟ve never seen

Blackberry like this”

We will see a surge of B2B applications

and innovations launching

MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY The much-anticipated digital

wallet will emerge as virtual

currencies and new payment

solutions emerge from all kinds of

players.

MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY Mobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options

in 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal

ramping up its mobile efforts.

In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formats

are also likely to make an impression.

We will see new methods being introduced and

rolled out, possibly first on iTunes and then

adopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions,

micropayments, coupons, and gifting models

taking off as service designers join up the missing

links in the monetisation of mobile. The concept

of „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary.

Taking it further, these models will spread to

web-based models, led by Apple, Facebook and

Zynga, as well as innovative start ups like

singleclickcheckout.

Credit card companies fight for relevance with

their legacy format. We could start to see whole

new currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟,

„Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.

These innovations mean mobile will develop as a

powerful platform for the reinvention of currency

during 2011.

MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY

Facebook Credits are a virtual currency

you can use to buy virtual goods in many

games and applications

Mobile payment apps help you

make small payments without

searching for your wallet

Zynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have

been spreading across US stores, we expect

that „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge

that could even be converted back dollars

Most free apps will migrate to

Freemium in 2011, making it the

dominant model of monetisation

THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Now that cloud services are firmly

established, 2011 should see new

„mashup‟ innovations that combine

content and services in new ways,

mixed with innovative mobile clients

optimised for all platforms. The cloud

becomes a kite operated by mobile

people.

Falling prices for memory space will encourage

the migration of more data into the cloud during

2011.

Cloud services are now already established for

consumers, and a growing perception of

scalability and stability should see them combine

and flourish in new ways.

Weak mobile data connections force the cloud

businesses to make mobile clients.

We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adopt

cloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about

„private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Service

design will tackle new questions like privacy,

storage, access, bandwidth questions as well as

ensuring that the right information is available on

the right device.

THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE

Data within public clouds may attract mash up

efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in data

visualisation, discovery and access in the year to

come.

Pogoplug – your personal cloud

attracted investment this year

THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE

Companies that have

announced to introduce

private cloud services Google Chrome OS will change

how we think of a PC

Evernote and Dropbox –

offer clients for most

platforms, essential for

mobility

As the living room fills with boxes, new controls,

new content, new screens and even larger flat

screens (some with 3D) the ultimate experience

battle begins.

EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND

EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND 2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in

screen experiences for the home.

3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price

sensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV

sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glasses

at home, means that progress may be slow.

More positively, viewers will continue to view

more internet content through their TVs, leading

to growth in services such as Apple TV and

Google TV, plus the hugely successful BBC

iPlayer.

At the same time Tablets enter the living room.

Innovative services are now emerging where

content is on the TV control and metadata is on

Tablets.

The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it

has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it.

We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote

controls. Gestural and innovative input methods

like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain

traction. Touch based remotes will enter the

market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personal

remotes.

Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash

tags to content to encourage tweeting.

We will see some broadcasters experimenting

with their monetisation and windowing

strategies, launching free-to-air content across

different platforms to try to find the best way to

grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, big

pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate with

entertainment and sports deals (similar to their

recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers still

pay for content in key areas.

EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND

Virgin's TiVo box – it learns what you

like then records content for you,

helping to discover new shows and

keep up with what you like

3D TV will continue to

grow – but will it boom?

Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the

way we interact with our TVs

Remote controls will innovate,

becoming gestural, social and

touch based

Companion experiences

will emerge for most

shows on Tablets

THANK YOU Christian@Fjordnet.com

www.fjordnet.com