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Systemic view to the energy transition – Value of flexibility
31.10.2016, Hannele Holttinen, Principal Scientist, VTT. WP1 leader, FLEXe
Changes pushed by climate change mitigation and cost reductions of variable generation (wind, solar) • Demand side, prosumers, increasing role Changing business models for energy utilities • Competition from renewables and demand response There will be high shares of wind and solar meaning sometimes generating a small part of load and sometimes as much as load • Power plants that are flexible and prepared to generate
at part loads and only part of the week will be needed in future markets
Energy sector integration – power, heat, gas, transport
We are in an energy transition
0
100
200
Net l
oad
(GW
) 2020
0
100
200
Net l
oad
(GW
) Traditional2050_HeatFlex
0
100
200
Net l
oad
(GW
) Windy2050_HeatFlex
0
100
200
Net l
oad
(GW
)
Hours per year
Sunny2050_HeatFlex
< 1000 h 1000 - 6500 h > 6500 h
Weather dependence will be more prominent
Flexibility needs
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Net l
oad
ram
ps (G
W)
Hours per year
Hourly net load ramps
2020Traditional2050_HeatFlexWindy2050_HeatFlexSunny2050_HeatFlexSunny2050_All+EV
Doc.ID: Revision: Status:17/ © Wärtsilä
Need for flexibility – California in 2020
9
Typical flexibility requirement in 2013
Typical flexibility requirement in 2020
Market models where flexibility is traded separately have been investigated Future market designs a topic for future research
Market design to enable flexibility
TODAY
Energy
System services
FUTURE?
Capacity/ Flexibility?
From power system point of view, there is increasing value of flexibility when more wind/PV added to the system Heat side flexibility is important
Results: system value of flexibility
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Traditional2050_Base
Traditional2050_HeatFlex
Traditional2050_All
System benefit (million €)
Traditional
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Windy2050_Base
Windy2050_HeatFlex
Windy2050_All
System benefit (million €)
Windy
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Sunny2050_Base
Sunny2050_HeatFlex
Sunny2050_All
System benefit (million €)
Sunny
Poster Helistö et al. Northern Europe system (Nordic/Baltic countries + Germany + Poland
Large market areas – how are the different flexibility options used? What is the value for each technology, from providing the flexibility?
Capturing flexibility needs and value
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Combined cycle
Gas turbines
Gas engines
Nuclear
Other steam turbines
Hydro
Hours when ramping (h)
Sunny2050_All+EV Windy2050_All+EVTraditional2050_All+EV Sunny2050_HeatFlexWindy2050_HeatFlex Traditional2050_HeatFlex
Capturing the flexibility needs and constraints in model simulations Which time scales of flexibility are relevant? Importance of more detail in simulations • Time resolution: hourly simulations not enough to capture all flexibility
needs, and value • How much flexibility is available from thermal and hydro generation?
Ramp rate constraints, minimum operation level restrictions
Tools are evolving
Linking models to capture local responses
