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Moscow city, October 25, 2012
PRESENTATIONenclosed to grant application from
TRANSIST VIDEO LLC
Innovative Project Name : The system of video-based navigation for unmanned aerial vehicles. Its application for navigation and airborne terrestrial robots control.
Organization name: Transist Video Limited Liability Company
22
It’s not just ordinary project, it is Manhattan Project for video navigation
Why? Let us illustrate this using the extract from the articles below
3
U.S. efforts to involve Russia in creation of unmanned aerial vehicles are part of the U.S. policy of Russian economy depletion by investing our limited resources in useless, Star Wars-like projects.
Number of publications devoted to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is growing. They mostly claim that future belongs to UAVs. Anonymous Pentagon experts are quoted, stating that "... today there are no better means of warfare than drone planes," and giving examples of the successful use of UAVs in the invasion of Iraq in 1991. Since then, however, things have changed and the UAVs’ prospects are not so rosy. These publications quite rightly point out how much the USA is spending to build their own UAVs and how bad things are here in Russia. Indeed, things are in a bad way now – luckily, not unfortunately.
Today UAVs are created by anyone who will take the trouble. The idea behind UAVs is attractive: to exclude a person from places where it is difficult or dangerous. Number of created and, especially, designed UAVs in the world is enormous. Naturally, everyone wants to lift their own aircraft into the air. But one question remains overlooked: who needs them and why?
UAV designers recommend the whole list of application areas. In the peacetime they can be used for monitoring pipelines in tundra, finding seats of forest fires and searching for fish shoals, and so on. In the wartimes they can be used mainly for adversarial intelligence, precision low-level bombing, air-to-ground missiles releasing on targets that are difficult to access (such as caves in the mountains). However, it never seems to occur to anybody, that all these actions are impracticable specifically in the wartimes.
They are impracticable due to the following reasons. In order to navigate any UAV within and outside the country, i.e. to determine its own coordinates and use them to control the flight, GPS satellite navigation system combined with an inertial guidance system is used. Accuracy of the inertial system based on gyroscopes, i.e. on the spinning of the top, alone is not sufficient to determine its own coordinates. For example, while performing photo-reconnaissance you need to combine recorded photographs of tanks standing on the ground with their precise geographical coordinates. Such coordinates can be obtained only using GPS (as well as, possibly, GLONASS and Galileo in the future). In order to do this UAV has to know its geographical coordinates with maximum precision. That’s why UAVs are equipped with signal receivers from GPS satellites. Receivers can operate continuously, constantly measuring the current coordinates of the UAV, as well as be activated occasionally, correcting the work of the inertial navigation system. UAVs have to know their geographical coordinates for desired track flight, as well as for returning to the base they bring intelligence information to. Likewise, current UAV-target relative coordinates have to be known to a high precision for the precision bombing and air-to-ground missiles launching. The accuracy required to solve these problems cannot be provided by the inertial navigation system or any other systems, except for satellite ones. That's why GPS satellite navigation system has to be used additionally (as well as, possibly, GLONASS and Galileo in the future).
Now let us ask ourselves a simple question: what would happen if the airborne receiver of signals from GPS (or other similar systems) satellites will be disabled by electronic jamming organized by the enemy? The answer is simple: the receiver would be useless, because it is no longer be able to measure coordinates. As a result, reconnaissance and combat UAVs would become useless as well.
When we were confronted with a question how to deal with small-dimension UAVs with low reflective surface for radars and low altitude of flights, it turned out that the only way to deal with them is the same old "jammer“. Creating an electronic jamming field for GPS covering theatre of operations as a sunshade results in neutralizing UAVs in addition to neutralizing precision weapons and disrupting troop command and control. Intelligence information obtained by photo and video cameras without precise association with the terrain do not have any value. Besides, the UAVs themselves, without knowing their coordinates, most likely will not be able to return to the base and will be lost.
3
IS IT THE RIGHT WAY TO GO, “DRONES”? О. Antonov, Doctor of Engineering, Aviaconversia LLC (article from the website uav.ru)"
4
5
Project general description
Description of the problem that the Project is addressing to
Nowadays availability of the GPS signal is necessary condition for UAVs operating. Signal failure or its deliberate suppression makes it impossible to determine the coordinates accurately, and, as a result, to accomplish a desired track flight. The use of inertial navigation systems also doesn’t solve the problem completely: solutions existing at the market (GPS/INS) are not autonomous, precision products are costly and are not noise-proof. The project suggests to solve the problem of ensuring the autonomy of UAVs in the absence of satellite navigation signals on the basis of alternative data sources: image information from onboard daytime and infra-red photo/video cameras and digital terrain data. We develop also simplified commercial video navigator for airborne unmanned ground vehicles (robot-lawnmower) control
Essentials of the development (description of the product (technology) and its characteristics)
1. It is planned to develop a software package including three approaches for comprehensive video navigation solution:
The approach, which uses the current image without additional information. The program finds specific points in the first frame of the video and then tracks their movement in the frame. By the nature of moving it determines changes in the position and orientation of the camera.
The terrain association approach, which uses stereo effect produced by the movements of the camera. It restores the terrain and compares it to the prestored data. In case of "recognition" exact location and orientation of the camera are determined.
The approach of precise photo-reference. Video frames are compared to the prestored images of the route segments. In case of "recognition" exact location and orientation of the camera are determined.
2. A simplified commercial video navigator for airborne unmanned ground vehicles (robot-lawnmower) control and working breadboard model of the video navigator for UAVs are going to be created based on the developed software package.
Technological direction of the Project
Space technology, especially in the field of telecommunications and navigation systems (including the development of a required ground infrastructure)
Stage of the project to which the application is submitted
Seed stage (stage 1, in accordance with the grant policies of the Fund)
The dynamics of the project development up to date
Two patent applications on the subject of air navigation for unmanned ground vehicles are filed., one patent is already gotten/
A database containing algorithms for video navigation is created. The works belong to the Project designers as well as are published by other researchers.
Basic approaches and algorithms, which are protected as a know-how, are determined.
General Description, Project Stage, and its Development Dynamics 1. The Innovative Project Summary (hereinafter referred to as the Project)
6
Current Status and Possibilities of the Development
Current status
The Project company is established, searching for investor.
Technical parameters of the Project’s product
1st approach: position error when moving along open paths is about 1/1000-1/10000 in relation to the distance covered: angle error is 0.00000001 - 0.000005 deg/m (for standard parameters). When moving along closed paths error can be reset when entering already covered segment.
2nd and 3rd approaches: error depends on the resolution of the camera, the distance between the survey points for a pair of images compared, the number of matching points and precision of their tracking, flight altitude, accuracy of available terrain data, resolution of the terrain map, type of the terrain: 3-50 m position error, 0.02-1.39 degrees orientation error (for standard parameters).
Achievement plan
Now Project is at the stage of research and development:
‒ Basic approaches and algorithms are defined.
‒ During the development new intellectual property in the field of video navigation and airborne unmanned ground vehicles control that needs to be patented will be created and patented.
Execution of the Project is planned in two phases over 24 months:
‒ 1 Project year: Intermediate product. New software for UAV video navigation and object recognition
‒ 2 Project year: Final product: Video navigator for UAVs and unmanned ground vehicles, their testing.
Software implementation of the algorithms in the form of a PC software package for processing input data in order to
reconstruct the flight path
Hardware implementation of the approaches in the form of specialized computing devices, as well as further
improvement and development of the created approaches
Testing based on flight data
and imagery
Flight testing
3 month 9 month
1. The Innovative Project Summary (hereinafter referred to as the Project)
9 month 3 month
1 stage 2 stage
Stage Measures Results Supporting documents
1 stage Algorithms development - three approaches to the video navigation of UAVs
Algorithms codes MS Word documents
Software implementation of the algorithms – three approaches to the video navigation of UAVs
Programs codes Application files *.exe
Development of the simplified algorithms for unmanned ground vehicle
Algorithms and programs codes MS Word documents, application files *.exe
Testing based on flight data and imagery (program execution based on previously filmed or real flight)
Matching the reconstructed flight path with the real or modeled one
Test sheets
2 stage Development of the hardware package (inertial system, camera, FPGA, memory with database on the terrain - namely, landscape, photos)
Breadboard model (for UAVs) and brassboard model(for unmanned ground vehicle)
Breadboard and brassboard models
Program multisequencing for FPGA Algorithms and programs codes Application files *.exe
Flight testing Data on direct measurement of navigation parameters obtained using GPS and video navigation
Test sheets
7
Planned Stages of Research and Development and Midline Target Values1. The Innovative Project Summary (hereinafter referred to as the Project)
8
2. Target Market and Competition
Consumer needs The project has 2 target audiences: UAV producers and
robot-lawnmowers producers, who has similar needs: they need high-precision and relatively inexpensive video navigator, that can work with no satellite signals.
Sources: http://uav.ru, http://www.uav-dozor.ru/Commercialization scheme
The project offers the commercialization opportunities at each implementation stage:
Company name Scientific Systems Company
Skilligent Standard GPS/INS
Video navigator programm for UAV, graphical movies (1000m)
Video navigator for UAV, actual flight tests (1000m)
Video navigator programm for robot-lawnmower, graphical movies
Video navigator for robot-lawnmower, , actual tests
Standard DGPS/INS
Stage Under development
Under development
Method 1 (without additional information) no noMethod 2 (digital map) yes noMethod 3 (space and aerophoto of locality) no yesTangled situation no little Price/ Owning cost, [RUR] Undefined Undefined 5,000$ 4,990$ 200$ 300$Positioning accuracy, in metres, given optimum conditions
12m 10m 10m 10m 0.3m 0.3m 0.3m
Analogous products development Skilligent, Scientific Systems Company, Inc. develop similar products No one applies the ground robots air navigation and it is the project authors’ genuine
technology The video navigators are at the moment in development stage, their characteristics aren’t
specified yet
Market segment the product is focused on:
By location: Russia, USA, Israel, Europe, South Korea
By product type: UAV, robot lawnmowers
Potential customers of the project product
UAV producers: Tranzas, Irkut, Israel Aerospace Industries
robot-lawnmowers producers: LG, Samsung
Creation of the program package for sale
Creation of functioning model and start-up sale
Further video navigator adaptation for specifications and creation preproduction series for sale
Creation of preproduction and final product sale to the customers
Sale of company to the big strategic investor
2. Target Market and Competition Commercial companies
9
США:
Европа:
Израиль:
Южная Корея:
2. Target Market and Competition Universities and Scientific Centers
10
11
2.Target Market and Competition
Robots
Industrial robots Service robots
Other appliance Space rovers Domestic robots
Robot lawnmowers
Other domestic robots
UAV
Segments for which the project products are developed:
США Европа Средняя Азия
АТР Другие
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1500
400
200
550
50
1750
500
120
530
25
2010
2016
Th
e a
mo
un
t o
f U
AV
, u
nit
s
USA Europe Central Asia APR Others
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
190 201 212 220 231 220
500 550 605 666 699 734
Навигационное оборудование для БПЛА
Системы технического зрения для БПЛА
$M
• Navigation facilities for UAVs • Vision systems for UAVs
The forecast of potential market of project products for UAV
Before 2009 below 20 systems were sold. In the coming 3 years the same is expected. Given the average cost of the system is $0.5М the market volume is about $10М
The market assessment (Air video navigators for robot-lawnmowers)
2010 2012 2017 2020
World market
In numerical terms, units - - 60000 90000In monetary terms, $M - - 18 27
Domestic market
In numerical terms, units - - 1200 4800In monetary terms, $M - - 0.36 0.54
In 2017-2020 the ro robot-lawnmowers market volume is expected to be $18-27М annually.
About 2,700 UAV of all types are annually sold worldwide. In the coming five years about 3,000 UAV will be sold annually.
The share of civil UAV is small in comparison with the market of military UAV, but it will grow and by 2016 can exceed 16% of the market.
The project product combines navigation facilities and the vision systems. The sum of the markets exceeds $750M annually with the growth prospects to $900M by 2016.
About 60% of this market falls on USA, and the major part of the rest falls on Europe and Asia-Pacific Region.
12
2.Target Market and Competition
The sources on navigators for UAV
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Commercial Applications
Global Market & Technologies Outlook 2011-2016, Lead Analyst: Ed Herlik
http://defense-update.com/20120502_uav_market_research_2011-2021.html
Teal group’s prediction on future UAV market.
http://www.suasnews.com/2011/03/3981/teal-group-predicts-worldwide-uav-market-will-total-just-over-94-billion-in-its-just-released-2011-uav-market-profile-and-forecast/
«E/ME 103 Final Report», Team Pioneer: Kevin Gu, James Leet, Amit Alon, Manpreet Singh
http://www.pickar.caltech.edu/e103/papers/Micro%20UAVs.pdf
http://www.memoid.ru/node/Perspektivy_razvitiya_bespilotnoj_aviacii
http://www.aviaport.ru/news/2011/07/14/218428.html
http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2009-09-11/1_bespilotniki.html
The UAV Payload & Subsystems Market 2012-2022,
https://www.visiongain.com/Press_Release/233/%27UAV-Payload-and-Subsystems-market-to-be-worth-2-96bn-in-2012%27-says-visiongain-report
«FY2009–2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap»:
www.acq.osd.mil/psa/docs/UMSIntegratedRoadmap2009.pdf
The sources on navigators for robot-lawnmowers :
OUTDOOR APPLIANCES AND POWER TOOLS: A GLOBAL STRATEGIC BUSINESS REPORT
HTTP://WWW.COMPANIESANDMARKETS.COM/NEWS/CONSUMER-GOODS/OUTDOOR-APPLIANCES-AND-POWER-TOOLS-MARKET-VALUE-TO-REACH-110-MILLION-UNITS/NI3839
HTTP://WWW.TRANSWORLDNEWS.COM/760907/C1/OUTDOOR-APPLIANCES-AND-POWER-TOOLS-A-GLOBAL-STRATEGIC-BUSINESS-REPORT-NEW-MARKET-RESEARCH-REPORT
Russian gardening equipment market review: lawnmowers, motor cultivators (2004-2010)
http://www.restko.ru/market/2606
Lawn and Garden Tractors and Home Lawn and Garden Equipment SIC 3524, http://business.highbeam.com/industry-reports/equipment/lawn-garden-tractors-home-lawn-garden-equipment
All Seasons Lawn Equipment, http://www.sizeup.com/business/all-seasons-lawn-equipment-dale
The Robot Report
http://www.therobotreport.com/index.php/robot_lawnmowers_still_a_costly_work_in_process/
ION competition of the most advanced robot lawnmowers. Results as of 2012 presented here: http://robomow.ion.org/?p=281
Henry Huang
“Bearing only SLAM A Vision-Based System for Autonomous Robots”
http://eprints.qut.edu.au/28599/1/Henry_Huang_Thesis.pdf
Rand C. Chandler, Dr. A. Antonio Arroyo, Dr. Michael Nechyba, Prof. Eric Schwartz
.
13
3. Technology and intellectual property
Innovation description
• 1 stage It is planned to develop a software package including three approaches for comprehensive video navigation solution
2 stage Creation of video navigator device by means of new improved video navigation procedure development.
Scientific and technological novelty description
The most important characteristics of the video navigator that distinguish it from GPS-type systems are:
‒ Autonomy
‒ The opportunity to adjust location and space orientation
‒ The opportunity to provide landing
‒ The opportunity to recognize the objects and to detect obstacles
‒ Low cost in comparison with other systems presently applicable
Simplified video navigators can be used for air operation and coordination of the ground robots’ actions. The offered system provides the independency of UAVs use with no satellite navigation signal on the basis of alternative data source.
At the moment 2 applications for Russian patent are submitted:
‒ the way of navigation and joint coordination of automated facilities
‒ the device for automated facilities coordination
The patenting is to be implemented in RF, USA, Europe, South Korea, Israel and Japan.
No patents in force were found during the preliminary search
14
4. Project Team and Co-investor
Project team key members’ short CV Investment attraction plan
Investment attraction to the current stage
Co-investor for 1 stage:
Chetyre sveta LLC, st. Prospekt Vernadskogo, h. 8а, МMoscow, 119311 ,Tel. +74952281361
http://forlite.ru/about/
Investment attraction during the following Project implementation stages
1 stage:
• 10M RUR – Co-investor
• 30M RUR – Skolkovo Fund
In case 2 stage is necessary:
• 75M RUR Co-investor – potential buyer of preproduction series
• 75M RUR Skolkovo Fund
Alexander Rubinstein
•Manager – economist
•The area of responsibility:
Commercialization and sales, programming
• Project participation: full-time job
•Place of employment: Economic Institute RAS, PhD in economics, senior research scientist: Interinvestservice CJSC , programmer
Project manager:
•Oleg Kupervasser
•Owner, procedure group manager
•Full-time job
•Included in anniversary 30 edition of Marquis Who’s Who in the World
•Veitsman Israeli Institute PhD, has 7-year
work experience in project subject, where 5-year work experience in Israeli University Technion and Israeli company Rafael (cruise missiles), as well as 2-year work experience for big Russian company Tranzas. Has 5 scientific publications. The articles were included in the prestigious Russian and foreign conference collection (IEEE).
Kogan Simon
Algorithm developer, programmer
Algorithm developing, programming
Project participation: full-time job
Place of employment: Israel, XTR Reality LTD
Gershzon Leonid Vladimirovich
Algorithm developer, programmer
Algorithm developing, programming
Project participation: full-time job
Place of employment: IT menger of Neftepolis LLC
Romanov Alexej Nikolaevich
Physicist, programmer
Algorithm developing, programming
Project participation: full-time job
Place of employment:
MSU, SSC, PhD in Physics, scientist
15
5. Road Map and Project Financial Plan
1. Extended Project development plan: • During the first year the program package of video navigation and objects recognizing is to be developed; right of use of the
package can be sold for RUR 210M. At this stage the IP protection is to be provided as well: – Procedures patenting – Patenting of video navigator for UAV– Patenting of video navigator for ground robot
• During the second year the pilot model of video navigator and functioning simplified video navigator for robot-lawnmowers air navigation is to be developed. The expected sales value of title to the both products is about RUR 400-420M. In this case the company sale is expected.
• In case the continuation of the company is decided the video navigator for UAVs and video navigator for robot-lawnmowers are to be further adapted for requirement and specifications of a certain consumer; creation of certified product preproduction series is required. After certification is finished the arrangement of the company’s products sale in accordance with the sales plan is possible (see below).
Stage 1 Stage 2 Total
Fund RUR 15M RUR 15M RUR 30M
Co-investor RUR 5M RUR 5M RUR 10M
Total RUR 20M RUR 20M RUR 40M
Product 2017 2020
Video navigator for UAV RUR 5130M RUR 6306M
Video navigator for robot-lawnmowers RUR 342M RUR 513M
2. Project financial plan:• Investment: RUR 40M (RUR 30M - Skolkovo/ RUR 10M– Co-investor) PROJECT COSTS
Remuneration of laborEquipment Premises Tests performancePrototype job
Key actions
Current status
(finished arrangement
s)
1 stage, to which the grant is
attracted
2 stage
Implementation term I, year I, year
II, year
I, year
II, year
Research and development
1. Procedures and programs compilation - 3 methods of video navigation + + + - -
2. Simplified procedure for ground robots air navigation + + + - -
3. Creation of hardware components with FPGA, paralleling of programs for FPGA - - + - -
4. Flight tests - - + - +
5. Certified model and preproduction series creation-
- - + +
Marketing and adoption
1. Program package sale - - + - -
2. Start-up sale - - - + +
3. Preproduction series sale - - - - +
Intellectual property
1. Patents and procedures + + + - -
Financing
1. Skolkovo fund + 75% 75% 50% 50%
2. Co-investor - 25% 25% 50% 50%