Andrew Maynard: Where Do We Go From Here?

...and the Art of Technology Innovation

Small Gods...

Andrew D. MaynardDirector, Risk Science Center

University of Michigan School of Public Health

Cincinnati Contemporary Arts Center, December 11 2010

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

“The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves”


“The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves”

John Connor, Terminator 2: Judgement Day, 1991



!@#$


Risk


Risk: The likelihood of adverse consequences arising from actions or events


Risk: Deconstructed


Cause

Risk: Deconstructed


Cause Effect

Risk: Deconstructed


Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed


Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed


Action

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed


Action Consequences

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed


Action ConsequencesBeneficial

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed



Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed


Decision


Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed


Decision Ramifications


Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed


Decision RamificationsConstructive


Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed



Destructive


Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed



Destructive


Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed



Destructive


Harmful(Inaction)

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed



Destructive(Indecision)


Harmful(Inaction)

Cause EffectGood

Bad

Risk: Deconstructed



The Eruption of Mt. Vesuvius. Pierre-Jacques Volaire, 1777


Sheffield, circa 1874. Source: LIFE


December 3, 1984: Victims on a Bhopal street

PRAKASH HATVALNE/AP




Felice C. Frankel and George M. WhitesidesNo Small Matter: Science on the Nanoscale


Phantoms…Faced with something unfamiliar, we are simultaneously curious and afraid. To remind us to be careful, we construct things that go bump in the night—phantoms, trolls, chain-saw movies.

This field of shimmering light, with unrecognizeable shapes inside, could be anything; best to assume it’s dangerous! (It is, in fact, a fountain playing over rocks; but no matter.) We treat new technologies in the same way. At the beginnig, they are all dangerous: fire, the book, steam engines, genetically engineered bacteria, nanotechnology. But with enough familiarity, we ignore even truly dangerous ones—nuclear weapons, ubiquitous surveillance, smoking, drinking, the sports channel on TV.

Felice C. Frankel and George M. WhitesidesNo Small Matter: Science on the Nanoscale


Last Century’s Risk challenge:


Last Century’s Risk challenge:

How do we prevent human instincts causing more harm than good in a technology-driven world?


Science:


Science:

Observation, prediction,

testing and re-evaluation


Science:

Evidence-based decisions and actions




Science:




Independent and self-correcting


Science:




Independent and self-correcting

Science takes

the instinct

out of what we do


Risk Science:


Risk Science:

Science that supports evidence-informed approaches to risk


Risk Science:


A systematic approach to evaluating and addressing risk


Risk Science:



A means of separating risk-related decisions and actions from potentially harmful instinctive responses


Risk Science:



A means of separating risk-related decisions and actions from potentially harmful instinctive responses

But is this eno

ugh?


Risk Science: In the 21st Century


Risk Science:

Coupling

In the 21st Century


Risk Science:

Coupling

Communication

In the 21st Century


Risk Science:

Coupling

Communication

Control

In the 21st Century


Coupling




Estimated change in sea surface acidity caused between the 1700s and the 1990s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:WOA05_GLODAP_del_pH_AYool.png


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PH

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/oilspill/20100525_spill.html


The Colorado river running through Marble Canyon

http://www.flickr.com/photos/77145662@N00/5014081890/

Photo: Andy Gupta




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rotia/619256949/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Aitor

Esc

auriaz

a




Communication




http://www.neuroproductions.be/


http://www.neuroproductions.be

http://www.neuroproductions.be

One week’s Twitter conversations initiated by @boraz (Bora Zivkovic)

http://socialcollider.net/




Last of 33 Chilean miners to be rescued. Washington Post


Control


Keith DW. 2010. Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering. PNAS 107(38): 16429-31.

Al2O3

AlBaTiO3

Photophoretic levitation

Gravitational alignment

Reflected sunlight

50 nm

10 µm

Hyp

oth

etic

al m

ater

ial

Geoengineering


Martin Philbert and Raoul Kopelman

Nanomedicine


J. Craig Venter Institute

Mycoplasma mycoides JCVI-syn1

Gibson DG, Glass JI, Lartigue C, Noskov VN, Chuang R-Y, Algire MA, et al. 2010. Creation of a Bacterial Cell Controlled by a Chemically Synthesized Genome.

Science 329(5987): 52-56.

Synthetic biology


Concept: Drew EndyTuesday, December 21, 2010

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew EndyTuesday, December 21, 2010

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow


Natural Selection

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow


Natural Selection Breeding

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow


Natural Selection Breeding Biotechnology

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow



DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

DIGITAL CODE DIGITAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow



DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN


Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow



DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN


Re-arrange

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow



DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN


Re-arrange Write

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow



DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN


Re-arrange Write Debug

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow



DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN


Re-arrange Write Debug

Sequencing Synthesis

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow


Bayley H. 2010. Nanotechnology: Holes with an edge. Nature 467(7312): 164-165.


Sequencing the Human Genome



Human Genome Project




1988 - 2001




13 years1988 - 2001




13 years

James Watson

1988 - 2001




13 years

James Watson

1988 - 2001 2007




13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007




13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007

The near future?




13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007 2013

The near future?




13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007

3 minutes2013

The near future?

Science 291:5507, pp. 1304-1351, 2001. doi: 10.1126/science.1058040

Nature, 1 June 2007. doi:10.1038/news070528-10

Nature, 6 February 2009. doi:10.1038/news.2009.86



Coupling


Coupling

Communication


Coupling

Communication

Control


Coupling

Communication

Control

?Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Five Pressure-Point Technologies:


Five Pressure-Point Technologies:

Bio-constructionViruses programmed to build new materials


Five Pressure-Point Technologies: Synthetic biology

Digitally designing “life” and downloading it into reality





GeoengineeringPlanet-wide climate intervention







Machine-human interfaces

Better-than-human?






Machine-human interfaces

Better-than-human?Cognitive enhancersDesigner drugs for aspiring high achievers


The 20th century Risk challenge:

How do we prevent human instincts causing more harm than good in a technologically complex world?


The 21st century Risk challenge:


The 21st century Risk challenge:

How do we ensure evidence-informed, socially-responsive and proactive risk-decisions in a highly complex, interconnected and interdependent world?


Drivers of change:


Complexity: Agents of harm are increasingly complex, and innovation cycle so fast that established linear, reactive approaches to addressing risk are failing

Drivers of change:



Interconnectedness: Increasingly complex local and global relationships between decisions and their ramifications

Drivers of change:



Interconnectedness: Increasingly complex local and global relationships between decisions and their ramifications

Distributed decision-making: Non-traditional decision-influencers and decision-makers are becoming increasingly influential, including citizens

Drivers of change:



The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Douglas Adams. BBC, 1981


The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Douglas Adams. BBC, 1981


Andrew D. MaynardDirector, Risk Science Center

University of Michigan School of Public Health1415 Washington Heights

SPH I Room 1792Ann Arbor, MI 48109

Email: [email protected]

Contact: Hilda McDonald, Tel: 734-615-3050, Email: [email protected]

Risk Science Center: http://umriskcenter.orgBlog: http://2020science.org

Twitter: http://twitter.com/2020science


mailto:[email protected]




http://umriskcenter.org

http://umriskcenter.org

http://2020science.org

http://2020science.org

http://twitter.com/2020science

http://twitter.com/2020science