2012 mobile industry_predictions_survey

© Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited. 1/2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 1

2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.

http://www.chetansharma.com/

© Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 2


First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2012. My thanks to all who participated in our 2012 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. It gives our community an insider’s view of trends.

2011 was a terrific year for the mobile industry. With all its ups and down, consumers embraced devices, applications, services, and technology with more gusto than ever before. In the waning hours of 2011, we crossed the 6 billion subscriptions milestone. While the first billion took 19 years, this last billion only took 15 months.

Smartphones are selling like hot cakes. We estimate that by the end of Q4 2011, over 60% of the devices sold in the US were smartphones and over 30% of the global sales were for the evolved brethren of the primordial featurephones. Sparked by insatiable consumer demand for mobile data, LTE and HSPA+ networks are sprouting all over the planet with US leading the charge for broadband deployment.

Our annual survey is a way for us to engage our community on the trends for the next year. We put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders. We are able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments, some tangible shifts, and get a sense of what’s to come. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012 might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution.



Fifteen names were randomly drawn for the limited edition of the Mobile Future Forward 2011 book. The winners are: • Tor Bjorn Minde, Head of Ericsson Labs, Ericsson • Sunder Somasundaram, Industry Solutions Practice Director, AT&T • C. Enrique Ortiz, Mobile Technologist, About Mobility • Russell Buckley, CMO, Eagle Eye • Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks • John Foster, President, ZED USA • Angel Luis Saez, Sr. Director, Orange Spain • Dilip Mistry, Senior Director, Microsoft Asia • Phyllis Reuther, Advanced Analytics Lab, Sprint • Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile, Isobar • Elizabeth Day, Director of Finance, Trilogy International • Alan Cole, Research Staff Member, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center • X J Wang, VP – GM China, Vesta Corp • Michelle Lee, Director, SK Telecom • Hemant Chandak, Sr. Analyst, Cisco Systems Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. It has been a terrific year for us at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to an engaging and productive 2012. Be well, do good work, and stay in touch. Thanks and with warm wishes, Your feedback is always welcome. Thanks Chetan




Participant Composition



Biggest Mobile Story of 2011

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Privacy and Security debates

Regulatory Tussles

Mobile M&As and alliances

IP battles

Introduction of Kindle Fire

Others

Passing away of Steve Jobs

The rise and domination of Android

What was most newsworthy in Mobile 2011?



Biggest stories of 2012

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Network overloading and collapse

Policy and Regulation

Operator and/or OEM M&A

Others

Facebook Mobile Platform

Apple Tablets and iPhone

Security and Privacy

Google and Android

4G deployment and marketing battles

Microsoft/Nokia resurgence

Amazon's entry into the mobile arena

Continued growth of mobile data around the world

What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2012?



Most Open Mobile Player

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nokia Carriers Other OEMs Apple Amazon Facebook Microsoft Google

Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2012?

2009 2010 2011 2012



Apps and 4G

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Advertising

Telematics

Others

Health and Wellness

Music

Games

Access (just more bandwidth)

Cloud Computing

Video

What applications will define 4G?



Apps/Services in 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2012?

2011 2012



Apps in 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

LocationBased

Services

MobileHealth

Monitoring

NFC basedservices

MobileMusic

Messaging MobileAdvertising

MobileAugmented

Reality

MobilePayments

andCommerce

Deals andCoupons

What will be the most popular consumer applications in 2012?

Developing Developed



Tablets: 2012-13

iOS 45%

Android 44%

Windows 8%

Others 3%

Which will be the most dominant (unit sales) tablet platform in 2 years?



M&As in 2012

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Others

Infrastructure Providers

Oracle

Apple

Facebook

Amazon

Operators

Google

Microsoft

Who will make the biggest mobile acquistion in 2012?



Apps vs. Web

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Apps will continue todominate

Mobile Web will start tobecome more relevant

Both will live in peaceand harmony

Both are one and thesame

How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web" debate shape up in 2012?

2011 2012



Mobile Payment/Commerce in 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Who will define the mobile payment/commerce space?

2011 2012



Solutions for mobile data growth

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Others

Spectrum

Backhaul upgrades

Policy management

Optimization

Mobile offload

Tiered pricing

4G

Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?



Mobile Data Revenues in 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

North America WesternEurope

India/China Japan/Korea Rest of Asia Africa South America

Which category will generate the most mobile data revenue in 2012?

Messaging Access Apps Advertising



Mobile Cloud Computing in 2012

5%

9%

19%

20%

20%

27%

What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2012?

Games

Processing

Apps

Media

Storage

Enterprise



Mobile disruption in 2012

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Energy

Others

Education

Privacy

Sales

Field Force

Health

Retail

Which enterprise segment will mobile impact the most?



Mobile App Revenue Models in 2012

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Others

Virtual Goods

Subscriptions

Paid

Advertising

In-app

Combination

What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in 2012?



Mobile Payments in 2012

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

No meaningful traction

Remittance

P2P

Selling of non-digital goods on mobile

Selling of physical goods on mobile

Proximity based

What mode of mobile payments will get traction in NA and WE in 2012?



Mobile Devices in 2012

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Others

Telematics

Camera

M2M

eReader

Tablet

What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2012?



What does the future hold?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Another significant mobile OS emerges

Humans discover water on another planet

Mobile voting becomes available in major countries

Major retailers start to shut down due to competitionfrom e/m-tailers

Asian operator acquires a major European operator

Tablets become the leading Enterprise IT device

Which of the following are likely to happen in the near future?



Regulatory To-Do List in 2012

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

None of the above

Subsidy

Network management

Pricing

Exclusivity

Competitiveness

Net Neutrality

Which areas will feel the most impact of Regulators in 2012?



Mobile Person of the Year

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Glenn Lurie

Dan Hesse

Sanjiv Ahuja

Paul Jacobs

Others

Tim Cook

Mark Zuckerberg

Andy Rubin

Angry Birds

Jeff Bezos

Steve Jobs

Who was the mobile person of the year?


Save The Date

Sept, 2012 Seattle

Ever wondered what the future of mobile looks like?

Contact [email protected] for

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We look forward to hearing from you

Chetan Sharma

[email protected]

TW: @chetansharma

http://www.chetansharma.com

Mobile Future Forward

[email protected]

TW: @mfutureforward

http://www.mobilefutureforward.com

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.





http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/