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Capital Markets Event Seoul, 23 May 2012 Key developments in Automotive Catalysts

2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

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Page 1: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Capital Markets EventSeoul, 23 May 2012

Key developments inAutomotiveCatalysts

Page 2: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

2

What is an automotive catalyst?

Toxic pollutants

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Hydrocarbons (HC,

NMOG) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Particulate Matter (PM)

Non-toxic by-products

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Water (H2O) Nitrogen gas (N2)

Combustion engines produce toxic emissions due to incomplete combustion of fuel and the generation of by-products

Automotive catalysts are needed for reducing these toxic emissions

Legislation enforces this by setting emission limits for vehicles

Page 3: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

3

Umicore Automotive Catalystsbusiness drivers

Growing global light duty vehicle production

Light duty vehicles (LDV): passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks

Heavy duty diesel (HDD): trucks and buses

Non-road applications

Emission legislation and air quality standards are becoming more stringent in developed and emerging markets

CO2 emission reduction

Impacts engine complexity and fuel types used in different regions

Determines choice of powertrain

Page 4: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

4

Global light duty vehicle production outlook

Car production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Umicore estimate based on external data sources

[M vehicles]

Middle East/ AfricaSouth AmericaSouth AsiaChina

Car production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Umicore estimate based on external data sources

[M vehicles]

Japan/ Korea

North America

Europe

Established Markets Emerging Markets

Source: Umicore estimates based on external databases

Page 5: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

5

Global powertrain development Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) remains dominant

Contains combustion engineRequires catalyst system

Car production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Umicore estimate based on external data sources

EV (Electric Vehicle)PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle)ICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasoline (Internal Combustion Engine)ICE diesel

[M vehicles]

Page 6: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

6

Global emission legislation presentin most regions and becoming more stringent

US regulation

EU regulation

Japanese regulation

No legislation

EU inspired regulation

Page 7: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

7

Regional positions

Market leader(#1 or #2 position)

Smaller player(distant #3)

Circles indicative of 2011 light duty vehicle production volumes ( catalyst revenues)

Umicore’s global leadership position

NorthNorthAmericaAmerica

EuropeEurope

ChinaChina

KoreaKorea

SouthSouthAmericaAmerica

JapanJapan

IndiaIndia

RussiaRussia

AustraliaAustralia

Page 8: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

8

Umicore’s global footprint in automotive catalysts

BurlingtonCanada

TulsaUSA

HimejiJapan

OnsanKorea

AnsanKorea

SuzhouChina

RheinfeldenGermany

KarlskogaSweden

HanauGermany

FlorangeFrance

AmericanaBrazil

Auburn HillsUSA

Port ElisabethSouth Africa

Production plantR&D / Technology development centre

Production plant

Production plant & R&D / Technology development centre

R&D / Technologydevelopment centre

Page 9: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Impact of CO2 regulation

Page 10: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

10

Challenging CO2 emission targetswill push the use of advanced engine configurations

Advanced engine configurations

Down-sized turbo-charged gasoline engines

Gasoline direct injection

Lean burning gasoline engines

Diesel

Hybrid electric vehicles

All these configurations require complex catalyst solutions

95

Europe

-38%154 152

USA

-37%240

109

Japan

-23%141145

China

-22%185

Source: Continental (2011)

CO2 emission targets for light duty vehicles[g/km]

130

181

125

167

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

10

20

15

20

20

actual

proposed

enacted

estimated

Page 11: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

11

Downsized turbo-charged direct injectiongasoline engines are being implemented more widely

Turbo-charged Direct Injection (DI) engines enable reduced fuel consumption

By reduced engine displacement and decreased engine speed

By flexible combustion process

By significant torque increase, esp. at low rpm

Profile of exhaust gases is different

Hydrocarbons (HC) emissions increase

NOx emissions decrease

Exhaust gas temperature range increase due to heat sink - turbo charger effect

Catalyst requirements more complex

Lower light-off temperature for the catalyst

Catalyst bed temperatures above 1000°C require greater durability

High dynamic lambda behaviour

Page 12: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

12

Lean combustion provides the best fuel economy

Lean burning conditions offer better combustion properties

Principle already used in diesel cars

Introduced in lean burning gasoline engines

Works in oxygen-rich environment

Direct NOx reduction with excess oxygenis not possible

Engine optimisation offers limited possibilities

NOx aftertreatment solutions required in most cases

Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)

NOx Storage Catalyst (NSC)

Excess of oxygenLean exhaust

No oxygenRich exhaust

Lambda

TWCconversion

1

NOxHC

CO

TWC Lean burningOperating range

EURO 6 NOx limit

NOx engine output

CO2

emission

1CO2 advantage50% NOx reduction

CO2 penaltie

s

CO2 benefit

s

12

2NOx

aftertreatment

Page 13: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

13

Electrification of the powertrainimpacts catalyst size and catalyst complexity

ICE HEV PHEV EV

Normal Start-stop Mild FullParallelsystem

Rangeextender

BEV FCEV

Relativesize +++ +++ +++ ++ ++ +

No emissioncontrol catalyst

Relative complexity

+ + + ++ +++ +

ELECTRIFICATION

Page 14: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

14

CO

em

iss

ion

[m

g/s

]

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NO

x e

mis

sio

n[m

g/s

]

0

20

40

60

Ve

hic

le

sp

ee

d [

km

/h]

04080120

Time [s]0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

En

gin

es

pe

ed

[rp

m]

0

1000

Hybrid powertrains requirenew operational conditions for the ICE and the catalyst

Engine-stop phases causes significant cooling of the emission control system

Lower catalyst light-off temperature required

High temperature stability especially required for gasoline applications

Engine restarts cause very high emissions peaks

Emission control for hybrid applications needs dedicated solutions

Page 15: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Market status in Europe

Page 16: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

16

Production in 2015 expected to reach record 2007 level

CO2 targets drive fuel efficiency

130g/km, phasing in in 2012, full compliance by 2015

95 g/km further reduction by 2020

Engine configurations changing

Diesel should keep market share of ~50%

Gradual introduction of electrified vehicles

Downsized turbo-charged gasoline direction injection should grow fast

EURO 6 legislation comes into force in 2014

Air quality requirements in cities drive NOX aftertreatment introductionfor diesel

Particulate emissions regulation could drive Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) requirement

Moderate growth of light duty vehicle productionexpected in Europe

Car production

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011

2015

2019

XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel

[M vehicles]

Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources

Page 17: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

17

Strengthening EURO 6 NOx limits for diesel carsrequire NOx aftertreatment systems

0.18 g/km

0.08 g/km

NOx

0.25 g/km

EURO 4 EURO 5 EURO 6

2010 2015

0.5 g/km

EURO 3

20052000

-84%

Page 18: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

18

EURO 5 EURO 6

Diesel NOx aftertreatment system concepts

NSC cDPFH2Sslip

DOC cDPF

DOC cDPF SCR SCRUrea

Replacement of DOC by NOx storage catalyst (NSC)and addition of Sulphur slip catalyst

Addition of Urea-based

Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)

Diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC)with catalysed Diesel

Particulate Filter (cDPF)

2014

Page 19: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

19

Strengthening EURO 6 PM limitsmay require gasoline particulate filters

EURO 6 legislations addresses the number of particulates, with a transition period of 3 years for gasoline engines

Gasoline Direct Injection (DI) engines have higher Particulate Matter (PM) emissions(in number of particles) compared to diesel engines with Diesel Particulate Filter

Euro 5 Euro 6bEuro 5b Euro 6c

2008 2011 2014 20202017

Diesel: 6.1011/kmGasoline DI: 6.1012/km

Diesel & Gasoline DI: 6.1011/km

PN [#/km]

Gasolin

e DI

Dieselwith DPF Gasoline PFI

1010 1011 1012 1013 1014

0.1

EURO 6cPM limit

PM

[m

g/k

m]

EURO 6b PM limit

10

1

Page 20: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

20

EURO 6cEURO 5 / EURO 6

Potential Gasoline particulatereduction system concepts

cGPF

TWC

TWC cGPF

All-in-one catalysed Gasoline Particulate Filter

Combination of TWC and cGPF

Three Way Catalyst (TWC)

2017

Page 21: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

21

Umicore’s market position in Europe

European catalyst market should continue to outpace vehicle production due to the introduction of new legislation

Umicore has a strong leadership position in the European market

Catalyst production in Europe started in 1974

Umicore has strong technology portfolio and system knowledge available to support the market requirements

First to market with NOx storage catalysts and SCR systems

Strong position in cGPFs established, critical IP generated and patents granted

R&D centre supports development programmes with OEMs

New contract wins for EURO 6 diesel legislation (related to NOx aftertreatment systems) should allow Umicore to further strengthen market position

Karlskoga plant, Sweden

Florange plant, France

Rheinfelden plant, Germany

Page 22: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Market status in North America

Page 23: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

23

Moderate growth of light duty vehicle productionexpected in North America

Production in 2016 expected to reach record 2000 level

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation

35.5mpg (miles per gallon) to be reached by 2016 (now 23.1 – 27.5)

From 2017 to 2025 fuel economy will increase to an average of 54.5mpg

CAFE regulation pushes towards more efficient engine types

Focus on turbocharged gasoline direct injection

Diesel market acceptance is increasing gradually

New Emission legislation

EPA Tier 3 is currently under discussion

LEV (Low Emissions Vehicle) III cuts emissions by 50%of current most stringent SULEV legislation

Green House Gas Standards (GHG) includes standards for secondary emissions(N2O, methane and particulates)

Car production

0

5

10

15

20

2011

2015

2019

XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel

[M vehicles]

Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources

Page 24: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

24

Gradual implementation of LEV III (SULEV20)emission standards to be reflected in vehicle fleet

100%

0%S

ale

s sh

are

2010 20202010

Sales share to be reachedto meet emission norms

Source: CARB 2010

70

20

125

ULEV

SU

LEV

160

LEV

-88%

NM

OG

*+N

Ox [

mg

/mile

]

30

ULEV

70

SU

LEV

20

50

ULEV

50

Emission categories

* NMOG: Non-Methane Organic Gases

Page 25: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

25

ULEV

SULEV

SULEV20

Various emission categories requiremore and more advanced catalyst technologies

TWCTWC TWC

TWC TWC

TWCTWC TWC

Low light-off

On-board diagnostics

System requirements

Increased Hydro Carbon (NMOG)

performance

Robustness over lifetime

Combined NMOG/NOx performance

Stricter particulate mass standards

Durability increased to 150,000 miles

Page 26: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

26

Umicore’s market position in North America

LEVIII and EPA Tier III pending legislation offers catalyst growth opportunities

Umicore has a leadership position in the North American market

Catalyst production in North America started in 1983

Acquisition of Delphi catalysts activities in 2007

Strong technology portfolio and system knowledge available to support the market requirements

State of the art technology development centre in Auburn Hills to manage local development programs

R&D centre in Tulsa to support local engine development

Burlington plant, Canada

Auburn Hills tech centre, USA

Tulsa plant, USA

Page 27: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Market status in Japan / Korea

Page 28: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

28

Moderate growth of domestic light duty vehiclemarket expected in Japan and Korea

Korean and Japanese OEMs strongly positioned worldwide

Japanese OEMs have strong growth path globally and especially South East Asia

Strong position of Hyundai/Kia in Korea with global growth path

Decision making power remains strongly in the home country

Strong local automotive catalyst presence is therefore essential

OEM’s development focus for domestic and global markets

Gasoline ICE mainly

Strong focus on electrification

Emission legislation in Japan changing beyond 2015

Car production

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2011

2015

2019

XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel

Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources

[M vehicles]

Page 29: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

29

Umicore’s market positionin Japan and Korea

Korean and Japanese OEMs driven by growing export markets

Umicore has a leadership position in Korea

Catalyst production started in 1987

Distant follower in Japan

Catalyst production started in 1993

Core strategy to increase position with Japanese OEMs

First successes gained, mainly related to diesel for export markets

Umicore is established in Japan and Korea through

Local production facilities fully integrated into the global network

Technology development centres in Korea and in Japan and R&D centre in Japan

Umicore supplies catalysts for various hybrid vehicles including PHEV

Onsan plant, Korea

Himeji plant, Japan

Page 30: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Market status in China

Page 31: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

31

Continued strong growth of vehicle production expected

Powertrain development mainly focused on conventional gasoline engines

Diesel gaining momentum

Legislation follows European norms with a 3 to 5 year lag

Continued strong growth of light duty vehicleproduction expected in China

Car production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011

2015

2019

XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel

[M vehicles]

Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources

Page 32: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

32

Euro 3 Euro 5Euro 4 Euro 6

C3 C4

C3 C5C4

Chinese emission legislation closely followingEuropean standards

2000 2005 2010 20202015

BeijingChinagasoline

C5+

C3 C5C4 C5+

C3 C4

C5

Countrywide

Beijing

Countrywide

Europe

Chinadiesel

C4

C3

Page 33: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

33

Umicore’s market positionin China

Umicore has a leadership position in China

Local production capacity since 2005

Platform exposure with both global and domestic OEMs

New production line for LDV and HDD being built in Suzhou (commissioning in Q3 2012)

Technology development centre under construction in Suzhou (commissioning in Q3 2012)

Suzhou plant, China

Suzhou tech centre, China

Page 34: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Market status in South America

Page 35: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

35

South American market drivers

South American market for light-duty vehicles is growing

Constant growth since early 2000

Forecasts show local manufacturing of6 million vehicles by 2017 (IHS)

Strongest market is Brazil

Brazil emission legislation with upcoming PL6 regulations

Flex Fuel systems are dominant for passenger vehicles and light duty power trains

Driven by the Brazilian energy portfolio

Specific flex fuel Technologies

Car production

0

2

4

6

8

2011

2015

2019

XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE diesel

[M vehicles]

Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources

Page 36: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

36

Umicore’s market positionin South America

Umicore has a strong leadership position in the market

Pioneer for Catalyst production in South America, started in 1991

Launching of Vehicle Emission Tech Centre in 1992

Umicore has strong technology portfolio for bio-fuels and can provide system development capabilities locally

Investment in new vehicle test cell in Americana, Brazil was recently approved to help OEMs meet the upcoming PL6 and PL7 regulations

Americana plant, Brazil

Page 37: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Market status in India, Russiaand South-East Asia

Page 38: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

38

Markets in Russia, India and South-East Asia

Car production growing with economic development of these countries

Legislation currently at low level

Following European legislation with 5-7 year delay

Very low durability requirements

No in-use control

Umicore ready to invest when markets develop further

Page 39: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

On- and non-road HDD market

Page 40: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

40

Expansion of scope of emission norms

1985 2006 20162011/2012

Page 41: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

41

More stringent legislation enforces the use of emission control systems worldwide

USA/Canada

On-road 2017US HDD fuel economy

Non-road2014-2015Tier 4 final

Brazil

On-road 2012EURO IV + DPF / EPA 2007

Non-road2015-2017Stage IIA

On-road 2012EURO V

Chile

On-road 2014EURO V

Argentina

Europe

On-road 2013EURO VI

Non-road 2014Stage IV & Tier 4 final

On-road 2015EURO V

Russia

On-road 2015EURO VI

Korea

Non-road 2013Tier 4

On-road 2014Post JP 2009

Japan

On-road 2013EURO IV

China

On-road 2015BS IV

India

Page 42: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

42

EURO IV/V

HDD Global Technology TrendsAdvanced legislation require PM and NOx aftertreatment

US 2007

EURO IV/V

JP 2005

US 2010

EURO VI

Post JP 2009

DOCcDPFor

SCRDOCcDPF

SCR

2009 2010 2013

SCRDOCcDPF

or SCR

2011 2012 201520142008 2016

USACanada

Europe

Japan

IndiaBrazilChina

2007 2017

SCRDOCcDPF

DOCcDPF

DOCcDPF

DOC

Page 43: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

43

Umicore’s market position in Heavy Duty Diesel

Umicore’s position in on- and non-road HDD

Decided in 2005 to step in HDD market and started R&D efforts

Technology gap with competitors closed by 2008-2009 followed by market positioning

Contract wins in all regions with relatively more success in Europe and emerging markets

Umicore continues to position itself for additional HDD business to be awarded in the near future

Technology, system design and customer intimacy are key for success

Existing HDD test capability in Korea, Japan, Brazil, Europe and North America

New technology development centre in China to be commissioned in Q3 2012

HDD production capability being established in North America, Europe and China

Dedicated HDD facility in Florange, France will be commissioned mid 2012

Expansion of flexible capacity in Suzhou, China will be commissioned in Q3 2012

Page 44: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

Conclusion

Page 45: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

45

Umicore Automotive Catalysts

Automotive catalysts market set to grow faster than vehicle productiondue to more stringent emission legislation in all the major markets

Umicore is a global leader for light duty applications

Well positioned in Europe, North America and Korea

Strongly positioned in fast growing Chinese and Brazilian markets

Aiming to increase position with Japanese OEMs

Ready to seize opportunities in India

Umicore is gradually gaining ground in HDD, supported by customer awards

Umicore is continuing to invest in manufacturing and testing capabilities

Page 46: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts

4646

Forward-looking statements

This presentation contains forward-looking information that involves risks and uncertainties, including statements about Umicore’s plans, objectives, expectations and intentions.

Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements include known and unknown risks and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of Umicore.

Should one or more of these risks, uncertainties or contingencies materialize, or should any underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated, expected, estimated or projected.

As a result, neither Umicore nor any other person assumes any responsibility for the accuracy of these forward-looking statements.

Page 47: 2012 Capital Markets Days Seoul - Automotive Catalysts