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Comprehensive New Urbanism for Comprehensive Plans - Thorne-Lyman - CNU17
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Understanding the Demographic and Economic Forces that Shape Land Use and Development
Abby Thorne-LymanCongress for the New Urbanism
June 11, 2009
Making the Invisible Visible:
Presentation Overview
Why are demographic and economic forces important?
How to evaluate a local economy
Bringing transportation into the story
Lessons learned for comprehensive planning
Why Are Demographic and Economic Forces Important
The Economy (Jobs & Wealth)
Buildings, Infrastructure,
Public Services
Purview of the Comp Plan
Workers (and their families)
Population and Job Growth
Coming Demographic Shifts
U.S. Household Structure is Changing
In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids under 18
About 24 percent were traditional nuclear families
A “Minority Majority” Future
By 2023, majority of children will be non-WhiteBy 2042, majority of whole population will be
non-White
Households are Aging
By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85, more than three times the number we have today
National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030
$75,000 and Greater21%
$20,000 - $34,999
19%$35,000 - $49,999
14%
$50,000 - $74,999
13%
Less Than $20,000
29%
Only 1/3 of demand is at the median income or
above
Growing Demand for TOD
Understanding and Supporting the Local Economy
Local Economic Activity Provides:
Quality of Life for Community Residents
(jobs/income, services, enrichment)
Tax Base for the Community (property taxes,
sales tax, etc.)
Metropolitan Competitiveness and Prosperity
(providing jobs, workers, or both to regional
economic “niches”)
Employment Areas are usually the least “understood” areas in a comp. plan
But, there is often considerable pressure to convert employment lands to other uses.
Standard Land Use Map
Employment areas should be defined by “function” and evaluated independently
Location, Location, Location!
Understand Your
Industries
Driving Industries – Sell goods and services beyond city
Household Serving Industries – Provides goods and services for residents (and other people in the city)
Business Serving Industries – Provides services to other businesses in the city
Monitor changing conditions when defining land use policies
Bringing Transportation into the Story
Source: San Mateo County
Location Matters!
When gas prices increase…
Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income(Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex.cnt.org)
$1.81 /gallon $4.47/gallon
Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations
Map
Current Worker Flow to Boyle Heights,
Downtown Current Worker Flow from BH
Plan Strategically for TOD
Four Lessons for Comprehensive Planning
1. Different opportunities for change influence the plan approach
Built Out Community Developing Community
Understand Your Opportunities for Change
2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local
Job CenterBedroom
Community
Workers in and out
Always Consider the Regional Context
3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic Development
Use Real Estate Market Data and Projections to Test Land Use Assumptions
4. Plan for Diversity
This applies to every aspect of your community