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QUIS AUTOMATIET IPSOS AUTOMATES?
MARTIJN DASHORST
Martijn Dashorst has been involved with Apache Wicket since it was made open source over ten years ago. He is a proud developer for over 18 years. At Topicus he helps maintain and create Wicket applications for the majority of educational professionals in the Netherlands. Martijn has evangelised Wicket at numerous conferences, including JavaOne, Devoxx and ApacheCon.
TOPI
CUS
THIS IS THE DROID YOU'RE LOOKING FOR!
BEFORE I BEGIN...
FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO
FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO
WATSON DEEP LEARNINGINTERNET
OFTHINGS
SINGULARITY JEOPARDY STAR TREKECONOMY
SELF DRIVING CARS
JOBLESSFUTURE
NATURALLANGUAGE
PROCESSING
FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGO
WATSON DEEP LEARNINGINTERNET
OFTHINGS
SINGULARITY JEOPARDY STAR TREKECONOMY
SELF DRIVING CARS
JOBLESSFUTURE
NATURALLANGUAGE
PROCESSING
FUTURISTIC BUZZWORD BINGODRINKING GAME
🍺
🍻🍾
🍹
🍸🍼🍷
☕
🍻
WHO AUTOMATES THE AUTOMATORS?
FOTO: MARKUS SPISKE
"IN 5-10 YEARS THERE WILL BE NO MORE PROGRAMMERS: USERS WILL BUILD SOFTWARE THEMSELVES"
– MY PROFESSOR IN 1990
FOTO: MARKUS SPISKE
WORLD POPULATION ANDSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT INDEX
Abraham
Buddha
Confucius
Jesus
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
02000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000
100
0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Mohammed
Roman Empire
Mongol Empire
Ottoman Empire
Steam Engine
Renaissance
source: "The Second Machine Age", Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson
"THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION MADE MOCKERY OF ALL THAT HAD GONE BEFORE."
–Ian Morris
THE FIRST MACHINE AGE AMPLIFIED MUSCLE POWER INFINITELY
"Now comes the second machine age. Computers and other digital advances are doing to mental power what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power."
– McAfee & Brynjolfsson
THE SECOND MACHINE AGE
2004
"Executing a left turn across oncoming traffic involves so many factors that it is hard to imagine discovering the set of rules that can replicate [a] driver’s behavior."
—2004, Levy & Murnane
2010
"Conversations critical to effective teaching, managing, selling and many other occupations require the transfer and interpretation of a broad range of information. In these cases, the possibility of exchanging information with a computer, rather than another human, is a long way off"
—2004, Levy & Murnane
WHY NOW?
3 HORSEMEN OF THE AUTOCALYPSE
EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
1
10
100
1K
10K
100K
1M
10M
100M
1G 1
"But just as it took generations to improve the steam engine to the point that it could power the Industrial Revolution, it's also taken time to refine our digital engines."
CRAMMING MORE COMPONENTS ONTO INTEGRATED CIRCUITSSINCE 1959
"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year"–Gordon Moore
2015-1958=32 DOUBLINGS
WE'RE NOW ENTERING THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESS BOARD
DIGITALISATION OF INFORMATION AND GOODS
2
When [these] things are digitised—when they're converted into bits that can be stored on a computer and sent over a network—they acquire some weird and wonderful properties.
From local, time limited, resource constrained availability To global, any time, unlimited availability
Digitisation is initially expensive, but then the digital properties kick in...
Digital goods are subject to different economics, where abundance is the norm rather than scarcity.
GLOBAL INTERNET TRAFFIC 2016
GLOBAL INTERNET TRAFFIC 2016
1,3ZB
RECOMBINATORIAL INNOVATION3
IS INNOVATION DEAD?
deep new ideas or techniques that have the potential for important impacts on many sectors of the economy
General Purpose Technologies
"INNOVATIONS DON'T GET USED UP"
The true work of innovation is not coming up with something big and new, but instead recombining things that already exist.
GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR
GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR IPHONE
GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR IPHONE KAHN ACADEMY
GOOGLE CHAUFFEUR IPHONE KAHN ACADEMY PCR
CASUALTIES OF THE SECOND MACHINE AGE
ENABLING SELF SERVICE
ROBOTISATION
Want to share your Quill Connect report with your followers?
The following report is based upon an analysis of your Twitter traffic and the traffic of your recent followers. It was producedby Quill Connect, an application powered by Narrative Science Quill™. Quill Connect examined your tweet history to open awindow into your own Twitter performance as well as a picture of what you and your followers are talking about andsharing. Quill examined a total of 12,016 tweets from you and your most recent followers.
We can start with your standing in the "Twitterverse" in general. Your Twitter career spans eight years and you tweetmore than most of your followers. You tweet 22 tweets a week while your followers average 4 per week. Further, youhave 752 followers listening to you, which is very close to all Twitter users. You are in the 94th percentile of Twitterusers measured by followers.
Your Twitter activity this week
You sent out 33 tweets this week, 15 fewer than last week, but above your weekly average.
What do you and your followers tweet about?
Looking at your history, you're mostfocused on Business & Technology,Politics, and Science. Tweets in your toptopic, Business & Technology, are mostlypositive in tone. Your important topicsmatch those most tweeted about byfollowers who are similar to you. Thechart shows the different topicdistributions for you, your followers andthe most aggressive retweeters amongthem.
What is the sentiment ofyour tweets?Your tweets don't skew positive ornegative and that neutrality puts youright in line with the sentiments of the rest of your followers.
(https://quillconnect.narrativescience.com)
Martijn Dashorst@dashorst
(https://twitter.com/share)
(https://twitter.com/share)
(https://twitter.com/share)
Your most influential new followersThese new followers of yours reach a wide audience andare often retweeted.
@weird_sci (http://twitter.com/weird_sci)188,759 followersPopular topic: Science
Twitter bio: @SpaceX Engineer & @MIT PhD Tweeting Weird &Wonderful #Science Author: http://t.co/sdWa5mCX9l
New followers focusing on similar topicsOut of your most recent followers, these followers tweetabout the same topics as you.
@aniketvarma12(http://twitter.com/aniketvarma12)51 followers
Popular topic: Business
Twitter bio: Get Crowdspell, the most amazing wordgame,
https://www.narrativescience.com/quill
MANUFACTURING JOBS
JOURNALISTS
LAWYERS
TAX PREPARERS
DOCTOR'S ASSISTANTS
JEOPARDY! PLAYERS
TAXI DRIVERS
TRUCK CHAUFFEURS
DELIVERY GUYS
CHEFS
TRANSLATORS
CEOS
CAN WE BE AUTOMATED?
1940'S
1950'S
1957: FORTRAN(FIRST COMPILER)
1959: COBOL
1972: C 1980: C++
1990-: HASKELL, PYTHON, RUBY, JAVA, LUA, PHP
FOTO: RAPINVENT
FOTO: DIPTANSHU SHARMA
WHO WRITES DATABASE QUERIES IN ASSEMBLER?
MACHINE CODE → ASSEMBLY → 2ND GEN → 3RD GEN
SQL → JDBC → ORM
SERVLETS → JSP → JSF
CGI → JAVA → JAVA EE → RUBY → NODE
CORBA → DCOM/RMI → SOAP → REST
HTML → PHP → WORDPRESS → SQUARESPACE
MANUAL TESTING → JUNIT → COVERAGE → PITEST
HTTPS://XKCD.COM/1319/
CAN WE BE AUTOMATED?
YES(WE HAVE BEEN DOING SO SINCE THE INVENTION OF COMPUTERS)
BUT
There is no single development, in either technology or management technique, which by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity.
–Frederick Brooks
from: 'No Silver Bullet-Essence and Accident in Software Engineering', 1986
Coding is writing text files in foreign languages containing instructions suitable for an absolute idiot to follow. Unlike human readers, computers cannot infer meaning from ambiguous text.
–Stephen Nichols
from: 'Coding Academies Are Nonsense', 2015
WHAT ARE THREATS TO OUR JOB SECURITY?
SELF-SERVICE
ROBOTISATION
+STACKOVERFLOW +GITHUB +AI =?
CODE PHAGE
QUIS AUTOMATIET IPSOS AUTOMATES?
NOS
(LIBENTIUS FACIMUS)
WE
(WILLINGLY)
ONE MORE THING
I GUESS THEY ARE OCCUPIED...
...FOR NOW!
THANK YOU!
