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The “inevitable future” scenario-building methodology
The Future Designing Research Group
Artiom Zheltov
The Future Designing Research Group
Russia
A “normal” scenario framework
That’s nice, but won’t work.
The Future Designing Research Group 2
“Too Risky”
“Late choice”
“Inertial”
“Optimistical”
“Breakthrough”
“Just in case”
Time
Cho
ices
and
dec
isio
ns
Point 5
Point 1 Point 2 Point 3
Point 4
The mighty 2x2 matrix
Rich and Traditional
Rich and Innovative
Poor and Traditional
Poor and Innovative
That’s convenient, but the reality is a bit more complicated.
The Future Designing Research Group 3
The Inevitable Future scenario-building framework
Linking scenarios to real life and previous events.
The Future Designing Research Group 4
“The Inevitable Future” framework: the features
Combines real-life hard trends with future scenario possibilities and variations
Compatibility with any scenario-building method
Large spectrum of possibilities and strategies for decision-makers.
The chosen future may be combined from different scenarios.
Built-in scenario reality check
The Future Designing Research Group 5
The description of «the inevitable future» and «the impossible future» in the chosen area.
Descriptions of the most probable scenarios. Or of the most interesting ones.
An outline of strategy to bring up a chosen future.
“The Inevitable Future” framework: the results
6The Future Designing Research Group
"Science and Technology foresight - 2050” for for governmental authorities of the Russian Federation
"Future of Global Nuclear Power - 2050” for Rosatom
"Future of Health 2030” for the Ministry of Health and Social Development
“City 3.0” joint research project
“Future of Territorial Engineering”
“Future of tourism in Komi Republic”
Foresights for Russian cities
Some cases of use
7The Future Designing Research Group
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The Future Designing Research Groupwww.future-designing.orgArtiom [email protected]: artiom.zheltov +7 (921) 953-47-29
