Solar Weather and Aviation

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  • 0ExtremeSpaceWeatherandAviation

    UnderstandingtheIssue,EvaluatingtheRiskandPlanningforEvents

    October22,2014

    NATOs2014CivilAviationTrainingSeminarIstanbul,Turkey

    Preparedfor:

  • 11

    ExtremeSpaceWeatherandAviation

    TheProblem:WhatisSpaceWeather?Whatisourvulnerability?

    EffectsonKeySystems:Impactsonpower,communications,aviation

    AviationImpacts:Satelliteandcommunications,avionicsandgroundsystems,aircraftcrewandpassengers

    ManagingthroughandMitigatingExtremeSpaceWeather:Responseandcoordinationmechanisms

    ImplicationsforNATOsMission:Protocolsandremainingquestions

    INTRODUCTION

    ProminenceEruption:SolarDynamicsObservatory(Oct.2,2014)

  • 22

    TheBigPictureTHEPROBLEM

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    SpaceWeather:Whatweneedtoknow

    SpaceStorms:Producedbyeruptionsofturbulentandhighenergyplasmafromthesun,referredtoascoronalmassejections (CME),thatcollidewiththeEarthsmagneticfieldextendingintospace.NearertoEarth,createdtoobyinstabilitiesintheEarthsupperatmosphere,generatedbywindsandspecialconditionsneartheequator.

    EffectsontheEarth:WhiletheEarthsmagneticfieldprovidesapartialshield,hazardousspaceradiationandsolarwinddynamicsinteractwiththeEarthsenvironmentandcauseavarietyofeffectstomanyoftheadvancedtechnologysystemsthatguideourlivestoday.

    VulnerableSystems: PowerandLongDistancePipelines:voltagecontrolproblems

    impactgrids,transformers,operations(falsealarms).Effectsmostpronouncedabove50degreeslatitude,butconnectivitymakesitasystemissue

    Satellites:degradationofsignals,oldersatellitesmayageprematurelyorberenderedinoperable

    Radio:HFradiointerruptedbysolarflares,radionavigationdisrupted

    THEPROBLEM

    CINDIsatellite(NASAandAirForceLaboratory)launchedin2008tomonitortheupperatmosphere(60400miles)

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    UnderstandingSeverityandVulnerability

    WeatherLikeVariability:Sunactivitygenerallyoccurson11yearcyclesweareinthemidstofsolarmaximum,althoughactivityheretoforelessthanexpected,thecycleissimilartotheoneunderwhichCarringtontookplace.

    Scales:Similartohurricanesandtornados,scalesdevisedforthefollowing(where1areminor and5areextreme impacts): GeomagneticStorms: G1 G5 (G5,4dayspercycle) SolarRadiationStorms: S1 S5 (S5,fewerthan1daypercycle)

    RadioBlackouts: R1 R5 (R5,fewerthan1daypercycle)

    History:Scienceislesscertainthanmeteorology,butscienceandunderstandingofsolarweatherincreasing. Carrington(1859):TelegraphoperatorsinEurope,USAshocked,wiresfried.LloydsofLondon

    determinedin2008thatasimilareventintheUSAalonewouldcost$0.6to$2.0trillion.

    Quebec(1989): SeveregeomagneticandsolarradiationstormhitEarth,knockingoutsatellitesandcommunicationsforhoursandtookJamesBayspowernetworkofflineforminutes,leadingtoaninehourblackout.Sincethen,Quebechasinvestedover1.2billion(CAN)incapacitorstomitigatechargingUSregulatorsrequiredmitigationmeasures.

    NearMiss(2012):CarringtonlikeeventhitSTEREOAspacecraftinorbitbutmissedadirectimpact.

    EFFECTSONKEYSYSTEMS

    GOES7satellitemonitoringSpaceWeatherMarch1989

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    TheNeedforResiliency:AReminderfromChicago(Sept.2014)AVIATIONIMPACTS

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    ContextforModernAviationTrendsinaviationmakeSpaceWeatheradynamicchallenge:

    1. PolarRoutes:Sincetheyear2000,commercialairlinetrafficoverthepolehasincreasedfromafewhundredannualoperationstomorethan10,000(2011)

    2. SatelliteNavigation:Theongoingshiftfromgroundbasedtoubiquitoussystemsofsatellitesforairnavigation,whileintroducinggreatefficienciesintoaviation,presentspecificissues

    3. CommercialSpaceflight:Theincreasingdevelopmentofpublicandprivatespaceflightpresentchallengestopersonnel,vehicles,andnavigation.

    4. MicroTechnology:Increasinguseofnanotechnologyandelectroniccomponentsintroducevulnerabilitiesintosatellites,avionicsandgroundbasedsystems

    5. DependenceonPower:Modernaviationisdependentontheprovisionofgroundbasedpowerformanyimportantfunctions,includingwithairportsandairnavigationsystemproviders

    AVIATIONIMPACTS

  • 7RADIATIONBELTS30+Satellites

    MAGNETOSPHERE50+SatellitesGeomagnetic

    Storming

    HighEnergyParticles

    MESOSPHERE

    Scintillation

    SolarRadioBurst

    ElectromagneticRadiation

    STRATOSPHERE

    THERMOSPHERE25+Satellites

    SEAMLESS

    ENVIRONMENT

    TROPOSPHERE

    AMapoftheAtmosphericandSpaceEnvironment

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    Wehaveknowledgebutgapremainsforextremeevents(G5) Aviationisheavilydependentonadvancedtechnologyandhumanoperators,bothofwhichfacechallengesbySpaceWeatherseffects.Theseinclude(butarenotlimitedto): SatellitesandCommunications:Manyimportantcommunicationsatellitesflyhigh,geosynchronous

    orbitsandareparticularlysusceptibletochargingandtohighenergyparticlespenetratingthesatellitecausingpotentiallossofsignaltracking,degradationoforbit,andlossofservice.

    AvionicsandGroundSystems:Ionizingparticlesareathreattosmallcomponents,includingairandgroundforincreasinglyusedmicroelectronicdevices.UpsetstoRandomAccessMemoryhavebeendocumentedtocauseautopilotsandflightinstrumentstofail.Internationalstandardsaddressingconcernwithavionicstoday;effortsongoing.

    AircraftCrewandPassengers:Civilianaircrafttodayareroutinelyrerouted(wheresufficientwarningsarereceived),especiallyathigherlatitudeswhereradiationriskismoreacute.[Note:flightsatpolaraltitudes(>82nd North)facespecialcommunicationsandcrewhealthconcerns]

    PowerDependentSystems:ATC,airportsandgroundstationsdependentonpowersystemsthatmaybesusceptibletoblackout.Focusonresiliencyneededtomaintainindependentservice(e.g.,microgrids)forremoteandcriticalsystems.

    AVIATIONIMPACTS

  • 99

    Focus:SatellitesandSpaceWeather

    Spacecraftgenerallyresilient,but: Aspacecraftinsurancecompanyestimates$500millionininsuranceclaimsbetween19941999 TheSpaceWeatherPredictionCenter(SWPC)hasanalyzedover300satelliteserviceanomalies

    andfoundthatatleastonethirdarerelatedtotheeffectsofspaceweather

    ImpactsonSatelliteNavigation: GlobalNavigationSystems(GNSS): Duringageomagneticstorm,satellitetogroundradiowaves

    areupsetandcanintroducepositioningerrorsoftensofmeters.SatellitereceiverscanadjustthroughanetworkoffixedgroundbasedGPStransmitters.SolarRadioburstsmayinterferewithGNSSaswellbyintroducingbackgroundnoiseanddegradingsignalsdurationofoutagesmaylasttensofsecondstoafewhours

    WideAreaAugmentationSystem(WAAS):Severegeomagneticstorms(e.g.,late2003)candisruptApproachwithVerticalGuidance(APV),whichassistsWAASuserswiththeabilitytoflyapproachesintoairports.Availabilitymayberestrictedforhoursduringextremelybaddays

    SystemCapabilities:Themixofsatellitesbytype,orbits,andday/nightpositioningmakethesystemresilient.However,aseriesofstormscouldcauseprematureageingandaltitudelossacrossanumberofsatellites,whichcouldposeathreattoselectivecapabilities.Giventhelongleadtimeforreplacement,thiscouldbeproblematicforservicerecipients

    AVIATIONIMPACTS

  • 1010

    GPSsuseofhighfrequencywavescanbedisruptedinionosphereAVIATIONIMPACTS

    ADecember2006solarradioburstcausedprofoundimpactsonGPSperformance,leadingtopositioningerrorsandoutagesofoverfiveminutes(Carranoetal).

    TworesearcherspositthatOperationANACONDAinAfghanistan(2002)experiencedradiocommunicationfailuresduetoinpartanequatorialplasmabubblearelativelycommonnightlyoccurrenceduringEquinoxmonths.http://news.agu.org/pressrelease/spacebubblesmayhaveaidedenemyinfatalafghanbattle/

  • 1111

    MANAGINGTHROUGHANDMITIGATINGSPACEWEATHER

  • 1212

    SummarizingResponseTimeandEffects

    SolarRadiation (Xrays,Radio,EUV) Arrivesin8minutes Duration:12days Satellitecommunicationsinterference Radarinterference HFradioblackout Geolocationerrors Satelliteorbitdecay

    EnergeticParticles Arrives15minutes Duration:hourstodays Highaltituderadiationhazards Spacecraftdamage Satellitedisorientation Falsesensorreadings DegradedHFcommunications

    MANAGINGTHROUGHANDMITIGATINGEXTREMESPACEWEATHER

    SolarPlasma Arrives13days,durationdays Spacecraftcharginganddrag Geolocationandtrackingerrors Radarinterference Radiopropagationanomalies Powergridfailures

    (IntegratingSpaceWeatherObservations&ForecastsintoAviationOperations)

  • 1313

    NATOCoordination:Civilian International

    WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)

    InternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)

    Governments: FAAinconjunctionwithOffice

    ofScienceandTechnologyPolicyandNationalWeatherService/SWPC

    EuropeanSpaceAgency,SpaceSituationalAwarenessProgramme

    Military AirForceWeather

    (Boulder,CO)

    MANAGINGTHROUGHANDMITIGATINGEXTREMESPACEWEATHER

    TheU.S.andEUbothmaintainwebsitesthatreportonspaceweatherconditionsandtheirimpacts:http://www.swpc.noaa.govhttp://www.spaceweather.eu

  • 1414

    PerspectivesforSpaceWeather

    1. DetermineifExtremeSpaceWeatherisActionable:Widespreadpowerblackouts,communicationoutagesandtransportationlimitationscouldcausesevereregionaldislocationpossiblyatriggerforNATOassistanceLikelytotriggerNATOresponseonlyatmost extremelevels

    2. EvaluatetheEffectofSpaceWeatheronExistingNATOMissions:Ongoingcivilianandmilitarymissionsmaybeaffectedbyaspaceweathereventprotocolslikelytobesimilarforotherimpactedcivilianandmilitaryoperations.Operationalawarenessoftemporarydislocationsincommunicationsandtransportationcanbemadepartofcontingencyplanning

    3. KeepCurrentonResearchandHarmonizationofStandards: Asaprestigeissuetherecontinuetobedifferencesinstandardsforspaceweatherinformationandhowoperatorsshouldincorporateinformationintheirplanningandbriefingprocesses.ICAO,throughAnnex3(MetrologicalServices),istoprovidespaceweatherservicestoaviationinaninternationallyconsistentwayandtaskedtheInternationalAirwaysVolcanoWatchOperationsGroup toworkonconsistentapproachestothedisseminationofinformationandCONOPS.

    IMPLICAT