Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities
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Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP Tira Foran (on behalf of David Fleming, Bruno Spandonide, Rachel Williams, Digby Race) ISIE Meeting 18 November 2014
Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities
Exploring energy futures for remote Australian communities CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Tira Foran (on behalf of David Fleming, Bruno Spandonide, Rachel Williams, Digby Race) ISIE Meeting 18 November 2014
Oil & gas resources significant offshore NG geothermal solar
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Remote Australia & energy infrastructure
Presenter
Presentation Notes
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A young population green >= 25% under age 15
• Unemployment rate 2011 census
• Dark brown >= 7%
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Lower economic participation
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Indigenous housing high rate of community owned high rate of “overcrowding”
Region % overcrowded Number of households
Alice Springs 16% 237
Apatula 50% 646
Sydney-Wollongong 10% 7315
Australia 12% 24668
Source: Biddle 2012 based on 2011 census
Presenter
Presentation Notes
negative association between overcrowding & youth participation in education (Biddle 2007)
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“Local innovation”
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Most of the work done around energy futures focusses on energy technology – but some of the most interesting aspects of energy-related issues involve changes to LS, LIVELIHOOD, consumption . . .
Method
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Key research question
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If the future is uncertain, a strong economy, progressive social attitudes, and policy support for energy-related innovations cannot be guaranteed. In your region, what particular policies and innovations should be promoted as no-regrets strategies, regardless of what the future holds? What policies and innovative practices may create new synergies or desired development dynamics?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
[
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Common Understandings (waste, luxury,
need)
Practical knowledge (how
to get things done)
Materials & infrastructure
Types of innovation Market-based (profit / firms) Grassroots (meeting a social need / diverse actors)
Social practices (challenging targets of innovation)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
I mentioned that in this project we are keen to learn more about the history and future prospects of inspiring & innovative practices. Innovation is such a commonly used word its almost a cliche / who doesn’t want to be innovative / so I was a little reluctant to use as one of the concepts in this project However, thinkers we respect – such as MSS & Julian Cribb in Dry Times – point to the importance of innovation in remote Australia – and people we respect, such as the architects, residents, and of ASP, display it, and so far have been motivated to talk about it By innovation we mean . . . [T]he process by which individuals or organizations master and implement the design and production of goods and services that are new to them, irrespective of whether they are new to their competitors, their country, or the world. TF Notes If you put Practice and Innovation together you get a tension between things that have a path-dependent structure to them, and things that are new or novel [and there is a large literature on this, e.g. 2012 Special issue of energy policy on transitions, also a literature on grassroots innovations]
E Citizen influenceconstrained by political opportunities, enabled by social movements
Livelihoods & Lifestyles
Power stationsHomes, vehicles
Innovation always takes place within a particular regime
C Consumerinfluence
D Developer influence
Presenter
Presentation Notes
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
Scenario approaches are different from visioning, they involve a structured process. A scenario is . . . [use slides from Mekong Futures! Just a short introduction here] //// LHS: http://scenarios2strategy.com/assets/process.gif RHS: Great Transition // http://decisionlab.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/GTInitiativePathways.jpg Driving forces that are important and uncertain Global warming Global and national economic growth Carbon policy Commitments towards energy-efficient building design & codes
Scenario framework: housing & grassroots innovation in Alice Springs
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
The framework consists of underlying trends (higher energy prices and warmer climate) and as well as three drivers whose future values are uncertain [*foreshadow: econ, policy, innovations] In this framework, “policy commitment” refers to the level of support for climate-adapted housing design as expressed in various rules (legislation, regulations, standards) as well as financial incentives associated with such policies. “Grassroots innovation” refers to solutions not organized through commercial markets or government, but through bottom-up community-based initiatives. As discussed above, such innovation is driven by particular social values, which may include localisation (increased self-reliance), community building, and environmental sustainability (e.g. through reduced carbon and water consumption ). Note that GI and policy commitment are partially but not entirely correlated – if policy commitment is high, some kinds of innovation is more likely to be high (example: support for Earthship Brighton). But grassroots innovation can also occur in difficult contexts (experience of Mike Reynolds, the creator of Earthships in New Mexico_
Application of method
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Presenter
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Earthship = passive solar house built using rammed earth and recycled tires, with significant belowground construction A design that has incrementally evolved since the early 1970s, by the architect Michael Reynolds Design goals include to be self sufficient in water and energy 30+ years of experimentation and failure (Seyfang, p. Experimental designs Long process of working with / educating / pushing the boundaries of what local authorities were willing to permit
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
Most of the work done around energy futures focusses on energy technology – but some of the most interesting aspects of energy-related issues involve changes to LS, LIVELIHOOD, consumption . . .
Scenario framework: housing & grassroots innovation in Alice Springs
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
The framework consists of underlying trends (higher energy prices and warmer climate) and as well as three drivers whose future values are uncertain [*foreshadow: econ, policy, innovations] In this framework, “policy commitment” refers to the level of support for climate-adapted housing design as expressed in various rules (legislation, regulations, standards) as well as financial incentives associated with such policies. “Grassroots innovation” refers to solutions not organized through commercial markets or government, but through bottom-up community-based initiatives. As discussed above, such innovation is driven by particular social values, which may include localisation (increased self-reliance), community building, and environmental sustainability (e.g. through reduced carbon and water consumption ). Note that GI and policy commitment are partially but not entirely correlated – if policy commitment is high, some kinds of innovation is more likely to be high (example: support for Earthship Brighton). But grassroots innovation can also occur in difficult contexts (experience of Mike Reynolds, the creator of Earthships in New Mexico_
Examples of “No regrets” innovative practices (^) Type of practice Housing Transport
Institutional innovation
^Culturally appropriate models of innovation (e.g. CLC approach to youth housing) Bushlight solar and hybrid power systems with management control features CoolMob (an influential social network around sustainable liveability, based in Alice Springs)
^Multi-user vehicle fleet systems ^Centre Bush Bus: network and operational model Changing dates of administrative year in NT
Grassroots innovation
^Self build, community specified Aboriginal housing ^Recognizing and allowing grassroots sustainability innovations to persist
Maintenance and recycling system for vehicle parts
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Summary & Conclusions
• Multi-stakeholder discussion of energy practices and socio-technical regimes • Participants appeared to value opportunity for multi-dimensional discussion
of housing- and transport-related energy futures • We are in process of finalizing governance recommendations • E.g. (1) “State and territory governments should invest in a . . . review of
building- and transport-related energy performance standards, including minimum performance standards”
• (3) Research providers should invest in compilation and assessment of innovative efforts by local networks to meet housing and transport energy-related challenges
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
We conducted expt aiming to get a multi-stakeholder group of people to reflect on innovative practices and the socio-technical regimes that constraint such practices We are in process of deriving governance recommendations on the basis of those stakeholder recommendations [insert in sub-bullet points] [mention recommendation 1] In terms of participatory process . . . Final statement about usefulness / futility . . . [SAVE FOR CONCLUSION?] When much of the current and future energy landscape is governed by higher level actors and forces, is it fruitful to invest in local level futures conversations? We believe the answer is yes: energy policy regimes can occasionally be influenced by the actions of ordinary citizens and consumers. Germany’s turn to renewables is one prominent example. In Australia, strong consumer interest in onsite solar photovoltaic generation (including new business models) provides another. For Australia, the systemic underrepresentation of remote issues signals that weaknesses exist in Australian democratic governance, which also deserves local action. Germany committed in April 2014 to generate at least 40% of electricity from renewable resources by 2025 (current share 28.5%). See Eddy (2014); Morton (2014); Gillis (2014).
CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social Systems Institutions and Governance Research Group
Dr Tira Foran Social Scientist t +61 2 6246 4308 e [email protected]
Community artists at the Warakurna Artists Art Centre: Tim Acker
Earthships New Mexico: Martin Bond
Earthships, miscellaneous: Google
NT Arts Infrastructure Projects (ANKAAA/Art Centres/ABA)Munupi Arts visit (August 2009)
Sitting in the shade: ABC.net.au
Zero Carbon Australia
ALEC & CoolMob
Scenario development process http://scenarios2strategy.com/assets/process.gif
Annual heating & cooling requirement
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MMA & Strategis (2009) Scenario framework
Trends & Uncertainties
Scenario 1
(Fast rate of change)
Scenario 2
(An uncertain world)
Scenario 3
(A decentralized world)
Scenario 4
(Oil shock & adaptation)
Scenario 5
(Slow rate of change)
Common trends Above average temperatures, more frequent, prolonged droughts
Renewable Energy Targets for electricity sector (1) Economic growth
High High Medium Low Low (mixed)
(2) Population growth
High High Medium Medium Low
(3) Global carbon policy
Strong
(≤450 ppm)
Weak
(≤550 ppm)
Strong (≤500 ppm)
Moderate (≤500 ppm)
Weak (≤550 ppm)
(4) Centralized supply-side response
Strong Strong Weak Moderate (renewable)
Moderate
(5) Decentralized supply-side response,
Demand-side response
Strong Weak Strong Weak Weak
User attitudes Pro-gressive
Consumerist
Conservative
Very progressive
Progressive Conservative
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Scenario 1 (Fast rate of change). The Australian energy sector transforms rapidly to meet strong global emissions reductions targets. Strong investment in demonstration projects has lowered the cost of both renewable and fossil-based technologies (i.e. Carbon Capture and Storage [CCS]). Geothermal, solar thermal, and wind operate on a large scale, as well as coal-fired CCS plants. Consumer response to demand-side technologies (e.g. smart meters, tariffs based on time and season of use) are very positive, and large improvements in energy efficiency result, in part because of high density housing designs (which in turn support cogeneration technologies). Scenario 2 (An uncertain world). Despite strong economic growth, uncertainty in carbon policy results in lower and uneven government support for technology R&D. Solar thermal technology is supported, but support for other new technologies is weak, resulting only in incremental changes in technology. Social attitudes are conservative and consumerist. Scenario 3 (A decentralized world). This scenario is very similar to Scenario 1, except that the cost of geothermal and CCS technologies has not lowered, despite government support. In order to meet strong emissions reductions commitments, decentralized and renewable solutions become even stronger in importance than in Scenario 1. Rooftop solar PV, solar water heaters are commonly installed, as are demand-side management technologies such as time-based tariffs, switches that shut off appliances during periods of peak usage, and appliances that are programmed to run during off-peak periods. Scenario 4 (Oil shock and adaptation). This scenario features very high domestic prices for oil and gas, resulting from constraints on the development of global hydrocarbon reserves, and sluggish economic growth. In common with Scenario 3, CCS technology is not viable, leading to increased reliance on centrally supplied geothermal and wind technology. However, in contrast to Scenarios 1 and 3, despite progressive attitudes, the weak economy makes many demand-side technologies, rooftop solar PV, and solar water heaters relatively unaffordable. Users face high bills and cut back on power consumption unassisted by sophisticated technologies. Scenario 5 (Slow rate of change). This scenario is essentially the inverse of Scenario 1: in the absence of a strong global carbon policy, and facing low economic growth (including the decline of energy-intensive manufacturing), the energy sector transforms only slowly .
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
One way to think about the future is to envision a number of ways that BAU, or DAU could change Here are some examples ZCA 2020 ALEC RoadMap
