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Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene Juan Carlos Rocha @juanrocha

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Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene

Juan Carlos Rocha @juanrocha

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The Anthropocene

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The Anthropocene

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Social challenge: Understand patterns of causes and consequences of regime shifts

How common they are? What are the main drivers? Where are they likely to occur? Who will be most affected? What can we do to avoid them? What possible interactions or cascading effects?

Science challenge: understand phenomena where experimentation is rarely an option, data availability is poor, and time for action a constraint

The Anthropocene

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Regime shifts are abrupt reorganisation of a system’s structure and function.

collapse

collapse

recovery

Prec

ipita

tion

Vegetation Prec

ipita

tion

Vegetation Prec

ipita

tion

Vegetation Prec

ipita

tion

Vegetation

Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation

low high low high low high low high

Vegetation

low

high

Vegetation

low

high

Vegetation

low

high

Vegetation

low

high

StabilityLandscape

Equilibria

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Regime shifts are abrupt reorganisation of a system’s structure and function.

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1. A comparative framework 2. Global drivers & Impacts 3. A management perspective

4. Cascading effects

Outline

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A comparative framework

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A comparative frameworkBiggs, et al. 2015. bioRxiv:018473.

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Regime Shifts DataBase

The shift substantially affect the set of ecosystem services provided by a social-ecological system

Established or proposed feedback mechanisms exist that maintain the different regimes.

The shift persists on time scale that impacts on people and society

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Time

Spac

eGlobal

Years

Local

Weeks

National

Decades

Seagrass transitions Submerged to Floating plants

Fisheries collapse Mangroves collapse Common pool resource harvesting River channel change Salt marshes to tidal flats Kelps transitions Bivalves collapse Bush encroachment Soil salinization Freshwater Eutrophication Coral transitions

Indian summer monsoon

Marine foodwebs Hypoxia

Coniferous to deciduous forest Peatland transitions Sprawling vs compact city Tundra to boreal forest Thermokarst lake to terrestrial ecosystem

West Antarctica Ice Sheet Thermohaline circulation Greenland Ice sheet collapse Arctic sea ice loss

Coastal Marine Eutrophication Forest to savannaSub-continental

Months Centuries

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Mechanism

Exist

ence

Well established

Contested

Speculative

Speculative

Contested

Well established

West Antarctica Ice Sheet Sprawling vs compact city

Common pool resource harvesting Marine foodwebs Indian summer monsoon Thermohaline circulation

Bush encroachment Fisheries collapse

Forest to savanna Mangroves collapse

Tundra to boreal forest Peatland transitions

Submerged to Floating plants Arctic sea ice loss Greenland Ice sheet collapse Salt marshes to tidal flats Thermokarst lake to terrestrial ecosystem

Bivalves collapse Coral transitions Coniferous to deciduous forest Freshwater Eutrophication Hypoxia Kelps transitions Coastal Marine Eutrophication Seagrass transitions River channel change Soil salinization

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Fast comparison of regime shifts = openly available dataset

Mediterranean shrubs (eg Fynbos)

Planetary

Agro−ecosystems

Temperate & boreal forests

Tropical forests

Drylands & deserts

Grasslands

Moist savannas & woodlands

Tundra

Polar

Freshwater lakes & rivers

Marine & coastal

0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts

Ecos

yste

m ty

pe

a

Mining

Intensive livestock production

Timber production

Small−scale subsistence crops

Urban

Conservation

Extensive livestock production

Tourism

Large−scale commercial crops

Land use impacts are off−site

Fisheries

0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts

Land

Use

b

Adoption of new technology

Disease

Infrastructure development

Species introduction or removal

Vegetation conversion and fragmentation

Soil erosion & land degradation

Harvest and resource consumption

Environmental shocks

External inputs

Global climate change

0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts

Driv

ers

c

Other crops (eg cotton)

Hydropower

Wild animal and plant foods

Fuel and fiber crops

Woodfuel

Timber

Food crops

Livestock

Freshwater

Wild animal and plant products

Fisheries

0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts

Prov

ision

ing

serv

ices

a

Pollination

Air quality regulation

Natural hazard regulation

Pest & Disease regulation

Regulation of soil erosion

Water regulation

Water purification

Climate regulation

0 5 10Number of Regime Shifts

Regu

latin

g se

rvice

s

b

Cultural identity

Social conflict

disease)

Health (eg toxins

Security of housing & infrastructure

aesthetic and recreational values

Cultural

Food and nutrition

Livelihoods and economic activity

0 5 10 15 20 25Number of Regime Shifts

Hum

an w

ell−

bein

g

c

Spiritual and religious

Knowledge and educational values

Recreation

Aesthetic values

0 5 10 15 20Number of Regime Shifts

Cultu

ral s

ervic

es

d

Soil formation

Water cycling

Nutrient cycling

Primary production

0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts

Ecos

yste

m P

roce

ss

e

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Drivers, Risk & ResilienceRocha, et al. PLoS ONE 10:e0134639

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Drivers Natural or human induced changes that have been identified as directly or indirectly producing a regime shift

Causal-loop diagrams is a technique to map out the

feedback structure of a system (Sterman 2000)

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Methods

•Bipartite network and one-mode projections: 25 Regime shifts + 57 Drivers

•104 random bipartite graphs

to explore significance of couplings: mean degree and co-occurrence statistics on one-mode projections.

•ERGM models using Jaccard similarity index on the RSDB as edge covariates & MDS

Regime shiftsDrivers

A 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1

B 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

C

Regime Shift Database

Ecosystem services

Ecosystem processes

Ecosystem type

Impact on human well being

Land use

Spatial scale

Temporal scale

Reversibility

Evidence

...

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Methods

•Bipartite network and one-mode projections: 25 Regime shifts + 57 Drivers

•104 random bipartite graphs

to explore significance of couplings: mean degree and co-occurrence statistics on one-mode projections.

•ERGM models using Jaccard similarity index on the RSDB as edge covariates & MDS

Regime shiftsDrivers

A 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1

B 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

C

Regime Shift Database

Ecosystem services

Ecosystem processes

Ecosystem type

Impact on human well being

Land use

Spatial scale

Temporal scale

Reversibility

Evidence

...

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Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

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Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

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Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

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Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

AgricultureClimate change

DeforestationDisease

DroughtsErosion

Fertilizers use

FishingFloods

Green house gases

Landscape fragmentationNutrient inputs

Rainfall variability

Sea surface temperature

SedimentsSewage

Temperature

Urbanization

> likelihood of drivers co-occurrence if drivers that can be managed at

local - regional scales and if they are indirect & generalist

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Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

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Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

Arctic Sea IceBivalves

Coral transitionsDrylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to SavanaGreenland

HypoxiaKelps transitions

MangrovesMarine EutrhophicationMarine food webs

MoonsonPeatlands

River channel change

Salt marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinizationSteppe to tundra

ThermohalineTundra to forest

WAIS

Aquatic share more and more or less the same set of drives while terrestrial and sub-

continental are more drivers diverse. Higher driver co-occurrence if regime shifts

share: ecosystem type, ecosystem processes, impacts on ES and scales.

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Drivers diversity & impacts are shaped by ecosystem type

• Spill over effects are shared by all RS especially related to climate.

• Marine RS -> fisheries, water purification, disease control and aesthetic values

• Subcontinental -> climate regulation, scale of centuries

• Terrestrial RS -> water cycling, provision of livestock and freshwater, climate regulation, occur in land uses related to crops & livestock and occur on time horizon of decades.

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Drivers diversity & impacts are shaped by ecosystem type

• Spill over effects are shared by all RS especially related to climate.

• Marine RS -> fisheries, water purification, disease control and aesthetic values

• Subcontinental -> climate regulation, scale of centuries

• Terrestrial RS -> water cycling, provision of livestock and freshwater, climate regulation, occur in land uses related to crops & livestock and occur on time horizon of decades.

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The governance & management challenge

• Managerial actions need to be coordinated across scales.

• 62% of drivers can be managed locally or regionally

• Addressing local & regional drivers can build resilience and delay the effect of global ones; but there is not blue print solutions.

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Marine regime shifts: a management perspectiveRocha, et al. 2015. Phil Trans Roy Soc B:20130273.

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to assess co-occurrence patterns of the drivers and ecosystem services consequences that

can inform better managerial practices

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Agriculture

Atmospheric CO2

Deforestation

Demand

Erosion

Fishing

Floods Global warming

Human population

Nutrients inputs

Sea level riseSea surface temperature

Sewage

TemperatureUpwellings

Urbanization

Arctic sea ice

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Fisheries collapse

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves collapse

Marine eutrophication

Marine foodwebs

Salt marshes

Sea grassThermohaline circulation

Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

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Agriculture

Atmospheric CO2

Deforestation

Demand

Erosion

Fishing

Floods Global warming

Human population

Nutrients inputs

Sea level riseSea surface temperature

Sewage

TemperatureUpwellings

Urbanization

Arctic sea ice

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Fisheries collapse

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves collapse

Marine eutrophication

Marine foodwebs

Salt marshes

Sea grassThermohaline circulation

Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

Food production related drivers, coastal development and climate change are the most important drivers and

they co-occur very strongly.

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Soil formation

Primary production

Nutrient cycling

Water cyclingBiodiversity

Freshwater

FoodcropsLivestock

Fisheries

Wild animal and plant foods

Timber

Wood fuel

Feed, fuel & fiber crops

Climate regulation

Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion

Pest and disease regulation

Natural hazard regulation

RecreationAesthetic values

Knowledge and educational values

Spiritual and religious

Arctic sea ice

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Fisheries collapse

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves collapse

Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs

Salt marshes

Sea Grass

Termohaline circulation

Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

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Soil formation

Primary production

Nutrient cycling

Water cyclingBiodiversity

Freshwater

FoodcropsLivestock

Fisheries

Wild animal and plant foods

Timber

Wood fuel

Feed, fuel & fiber crops

Climate regulation

Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion

Pest and disease regulation

Natural hazard regulation

RecreationAesthetic values

Knowledge and educational values

Spiritual and religious

Arctic sea ice

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Fisheries collapse

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves collapse

Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs

Salt marshes

Sea Grass

Termohaline circulation

Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

The most co-occurring ecosystem services are fisheries, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, water purification.

Many regime shifts in coastal ecosystems have impacts on aesthetic values and recreation.

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Dem

and

Agric

ultu

reSe

wage

Def

ores

tatio

nU

rban

izat

ion

Glo

bal w

arm

ing

Fish

ing

Nut

rient

s in

puts

Hur

rican

esO

cean

aci

dific

atio

nD

roug

hts

Infra

stru

ctur

e de

velo

pmen

tSe

a su

rface

tem

pera

ture

Aqua

cultu

reIrr

igat

ion

infra

stru

ctur

eG

reen

hou

se g

ases

Tide

sSu

rface

mel

ting

pond

sSu

rface

mel

t wat

erSt

rato

sphe

ric o

zone

Oce

an te

mpe

ratu

re (d

eep

wate

r)Ic

e su

rface

mel

ting

Gla

cier

s gr

owth

Clim

ate

varia

bilit

y (S

AM)

Gla

cier

sTu

rbid

ityTh

erm

al a

nom

alie

s in

sum

mer

Low

tide

sPo

lluta

nts

Flus

hing

Urb

an s

torm

wat

er ru

noff

Fish

ing

tech

nolo

gyPr

ecip

itatio

nIn

vasi

ve s

peci

esTr

aged

y of

the

com

mon

sAc

cess

to m

arke

tsSu

bsid

ies

Food

sup

ply

Wat

er s

tratif

icat

ion

Impo

undm

ents

Irrig

atio

nAt

mos

pher

ic C

O2

Tem

pera

ture

Sea

leve

l ris

eSe

dim

ents

Dis

ease

Land

scap

e fra

gmen

tatio

nR

ainf

all v

aria

bilit

yEr

osio

nFl

oods

Ferti

lizer

s us

eH

uman

pop

ulat

ion

ENSO

like

eve

nts

Upw

ellin

gs

FreshwaterFeed, fuel & fiber cropsTimberWood fuelWater regulationFoodcropsLivestockPest and disease regulationKnowledge and educational valuesSpiritual and religiousWater cyclingClimate regulationWild animal and plant foodsSoil formationRegulation of soil erosionNatural hazard regulationAesthetic valuesBiodiversityFisheriesWater purificationNutrient cyclingPrimary productionRecreation

In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services?

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Summary

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• PI: Developed a framework for comparing regime shifts.

Summary

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• PI: Developed a framework for comparing regime shifts.

• PII: Food production & climate change are the main drivers. High drivers co-occurrence suggest the risk of cascading effects but also present opportunities for management.

Summary

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• PI: Developed a framework for comparing regime shifts.

• PII: Food production & climate change are the main drivers. High drivers co-occurrence suggest the risk of cascading effects but also present opportunities for management.

• PIII: Addressing local-regional drivers can built resilience to global ones. Embrace drivers diversity.

Summary

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Cascading & domino effects [work in progress]

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Forks: when sharing a driver synchronize two regime shifts

Causal chains: the domino effect

Inconvenient feedbacks: when two shifts reinforce or dampen each other

RS1 RS2 RS3

D1

RS1 RS2D1 ...

RS1

RS2

D2D1

Arctic Icesheet collapse

Bivalves collapse

Coral bleaching

Coral transitions

Desertification

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries collapse

Floating plants

Foodwebs

Forest to cropland

Forest to savanna

Greenland icesheet collapse

Hypoxia

Kelp transitions

Monsoon

Peatlands

Soil salinization

Soil structure

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

Arctic salt marsh

River channel change

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RS1 RS2 RS3

D1

RS1 RS2D1 ...

RS1

RS2

D2D1

Forks

Domino effects

Inconvenient feedbacksArctic Sea−Ice Loss

Bivalves Collapse

Bush Encroachment

Coral Transitions

Desertification

Dryland degradation

Fisheries collapse

Forest to Cropland

Forest to Savannas

Freshwater Eutrophication

Greenland ice sheet collapse

Hypoxia

Indian Summer Monsoon

Kelp Transitions

Mangroves transitions

Marine eutrophication

Marine food web changes

Marine food webs

Seagrass transitions

Soil Salinization

Sprawling vs Compact City

Submerged to Floating Plants

Thermohaline circulation

Thermokarst lake to terrestrial ecosystem

Tundra to Boreal forest

West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

Agriculture

Aquaculture

Aquifers depletion

Climate change

Coastal erosion

Deforestation

Disease

Droughts

ENSO like events

Erosion

Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity

Fertilizers use

Fire frequency

Fishing

Floods

Flushing

Green house gases

Harvesting (animals)

Hunting

Ice melt water

Impoundments

Invasive species

Irrigation

Landscape fragmentation

Logging

Low tides

Nutrient inputs

Ocean acidification

Pollutants

Precipitation

Production intensification

Rainfall variability

Ranching (livestock)

River channelization

Roads and railways

Salt water intrusion

Sea level rise

Sea surface temperature

Sea water density

Sediments

Sewage

Soil moistureStorms

Temperature

Thermal anomalies in summer

Turbidity

Upwellings

Urban storm water runoff

Urbanization

Water depth

Water infrastructure

Water level fluctuation

Water stratification

Water vapor

Wetland Drainage

Wind stress

Arctic Sea Ice

Bivalves

Coral transitions

Drylands

Encroachment

Eutrophication

Fisheries

Floating plants

Forest to Savana

Greenland

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves

Marine Eutrhophication

Marine food webs

Moonson

Peatlands

River channel change

Salt Marshes to tidal flats

Sea Grass

Soil salinization

Steppe to tundra

Thermohaline

Tundra to forest

WAIS

Cascading effects of regime shifts

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Drivers Natural or human induced changes that have been identified as directly or indirectly producing a regime shift

Causal-loop diagrams is a technique to map out the

feedback structure of a system (Sterman 2000)

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Agriculture

Coral abundance

CPUE

DeforestationDemand

Disease outbreak

ErosionFertilizers use

Fishing

Food supply

Global warming

Green house gases

Herbivores

Human population

Hurricanes

Logging

Low tides frequency

Macroalgae abundance

Nutrients input

Ocean acidification

Other competitorsPollutants

SedimentsSewage

Space

SST

Thermal annomalies

Top predators

Turbidity

Unpalatability

Urbanization

Zooxanthellae

A

B C

Agriculture

Fertilizers useDeforestation

Coral abundance

Zooxanthellae

SpaceDisease outbreak

CPUE Food supply

Erosion

DemandFishing

Logging

Herbivores

Sediments

Nutrients input

Top predators

Global warmingSST

Green house gasesOcean acidification

Macroalgae abundance

Human population

Hurricanes

Low tides frequencyUnpalatability

Turbidity

Other competitors

Pollutants

Sewage

Thermal annomaliesUrbanization

D

A worked example. A) shows a CLD for coral transitions as reported on RSDB. B) is a network representation of the same CLD where positive links are blue and negative red. C) identifies communities of drivers and processes based on a community detection algorithm. D) shows a network of 19 regime shifts CLD’s where drivers are identified in orange and other variables in yellow. The giant component of the network suggest a large potential pathways of connections between regime shifts drivers and processes, thus plausible cascading effects.

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Desertification Soil Salinisation Desertification - Soil Salinisation

0

5

10

15

5 10 15 20Feedback length

Num

ber o

f fee

dbac

ks

NetworksRS1

RS2

RS.mix

Inc.Feed

Desertification - Soil Salinisation

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Regime shifts are tightly connected both when sharing drivers and their underlying feedback dynamics. Great potential for cascading effects. Food production and climate change are the main causes of regime shifts globally. The management of immediate causes or well studied variables might not be enough to avoid such catastrophes. Management of regime shifts requires coordinating efforts across multiple scales of action.

Conclusions

Page 59: Esa fort lauderdale

Questions?? e-mail: [email protected] twitter: @juanrocha

slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog

Page 60: Esa fort lauderdale

Questions?? e-mail: [email protected] twitter: @juanrocha

slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog