An updated version of lifetime net merit incorporating additional fertility traits and new economic values

  • Published on
    23-Aug-2014

  • View
    165

  • Download
    18

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Presentation on proposed Net Merit 2014 made at the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding's Open Industry Meeting in Maryland on August 5, 2014.

Transcript

Genomic Prediction Results

An updated version of lifetime net merit incorporating additional fertility traits and new economic values

John B. Cole* and Paul M. VanRaden

Animal Genomics and Improvement Laboratory

Agricultural Research Service, USDA

Beltsville, MD 20705-2350

john.cole@ars.usda.gov

2014

1

Introduction

Lifetime net merit (NM$) is a selection index for commercial dairy producers

Cheese-, fluid, and grazing-merit indices accommodate alternative marketing & production scenarios

The goal is to produce cattle that will be profitable under market conditions in 3 to 5 years.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

2

2

2

Why do we need to update NM$?

New traits can better describe the biology of the cow.

Production economics change in response to market demands and policy decisions.

Changes in evaluation methodology or trait definitions can affect calculations.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

3

3

3

TraitRelative emphasis on traits in index (%)PD$1971MFP$1976CY$1984NM$1994NM$2000NM$2003NM$2006NM$2010Milk5227265000Fat4846452521222319Protein27534336332316PL2014111722SCS699910UDC7767FLC4434BDC4346DPR7911SCE2DCE2CA$65

Our indices have changed over time

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

4

4

4

The economic situation has changed

Milk prices are higher than predicted in 2010, driven largely by a strong export market, which increases the value of production.

Replacement prices are lower and beef prices higher than in 2010, which decreases the value of longevity.

Replacement prices have been volatile.

Beef futures are forecast to remain high.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

5

5

5

Some economic drivers

Forecast base milk price was $14.93 in 2010, revised to $16.00 last fall, and revised to $18.00 in July.

Forecast replacement heifer price was $1,910 in 2010, revised to $1,440 last fall, and revised to $1,700 in July.

Forecast cull cow price was $0.54/pound in 2010, revised to $0.65 last fall, and revised to $0.75 in July.

Forecast feed costs were revised up by about 15% in July.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

6

6

6

We have more traits to describe fertility

Daughter pregnancy rate from lactation data (1960s to present).

Heifer and cow conception rates from fertility data (2003 to present).

Fertility traits benefit from multi-trait processing.

Genetic correlationsare high and manyobservations aremissing.

DPRHCRCCRDPR0.040.410.87HCR0.100.020.54CCR0.700.100.03

Heritabilities (diagonal) and genetic

(above) and phenotypic (below)

correlations.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

7

7

7

Graziers face different challenges

Graziers face different economic pressures

Notably, more fertility and less longevity

GM$ 2014 does not include dairy form, as proposed by Gay et al. (2014).

Were working with the traits we have.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

8

8

8

TraitRelative emphasis on traits in index (%)NM$2010CM$2014FM$2014GM$2014NM$2014Milk0-82477Fat1920242224Protein162501315PL2216191119SCS10-8-5-67UDC76787FLC43444BDC6-4-4-44DPR1144145HCR1 252CCR 1 23 2CA$ 5 455 5

Where are we going?

More yield

(44%)

Less fertility,

more traits

(9%)

Less PL

(19%)

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

9

9

9

Including recessive tests

There are currently 20 recessives tracked in US dairy cattle.

Not all are undesirable (e.g., polled).

Gene dosages are needed in order to include haplotype or SNP tests in NM$.

Could follow after Gengler et al. (2007) or Van Doormaal and Kistemaker (2008).

Estimating associated economic values will be challenging.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

Feed costs are problematic

New data for calculating the feed costs for fat and protein are arriving.

The current model says protein costs more to make than fat.

Intake data indicate even higher protein costs, which seems counterintuitive.

Phenotypic and genetic correlations may differ, as with SCS.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

Subindices may aid interpretation

Calving ease and stillbirth are combined into a calving ability subindex, CA$.

This idea could be extended to other trait groups, such as yield and fertility.

Emphasizes the economic value of the group over individual traits.

Traits can be added without changing the interpretation of the subindex.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

Conclusions

More emphasis on yield and less on fertility & longevity in Dec. 2014 NM$.

NM$ 2014 is correlated by 0.965 with NM$ 2010, and by 0.991 with 2006 NM$.

Increased genetic progress worth $8 million/year is expected if all breeders select on NM$.

The addition of GM$ provides a new selection tool for graziers.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

Acknowledgments

The members of SCC084, Genetic selection and mating strategies to improve the well-being and efficiency of dairy cattle.

Investigators on AFRI Integrated Project 2011-68004-30340, Genomic Selection and Herd Management for Improved Feed Efficiency of the Dairy Industry.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden

Questions?

http://gigaom.com/2012/05/31/t-mobile-pits-its-math-against-verizons-the-loser-common-sense/shutterstock_76826245/

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (#)

Cole and VanRaden