John B. Cole* and Paul M. VanRadenAnimal Genomics and Improvement LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDABeltsville, MD 20705-2350

john.cole@ars.usda.gov

2014

An updated version of lifetime net merit incorporating additional fertility traits and new economic values

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (2) Cole and VanRaden

Introduction

Lifetime net merit (NM$) is a selection index for commercial dairy producers

Cheese-, fluid, and grazing-merit indices accommodate alternative marketing & production scenarios

The goal is to produce cattle that will be profitable under market conditions in 3 to 5 years.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (3) Cole and VanRaden

Why do we need to update NM$?

New traits can better describe the biology of the cow.

Production economics change in response to market demands and policy decisions.

Changes in evaluation methodology or trait definitions can affect calculations.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (4) Cole and VanRaden

Trait

Relative emphasis on traits in index (%)PD$1971

MFP$1976

CY$1984

NM$1994

NM$2000

NM$2003

NM$2006

NM$2010

Milk 52 27 –2 6 5 0 0 0Fat 48 46 45 25 21 22 23 19Protein … 27 53 43 36 33 23 16PL … … … 20 14 11 17 22SCS … … … –6 –9 –9 –9 –

10UDC … … … … 7 7 6 7FLC … … … … 4 4 3 4BDC … … … … –4 –3 –4 –6DPR … … … … … 7 9 11SCE … … … … … –2 … …DCE … … … … … –2 … …CA$ … … … … … … 6 5

Our indices have changed over time

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (5) Cole and VanRaden

The economic situation has changed

Milk prices are higher than predicted in 2010, driven largely by a strong export market, which increases the value of production.

Replacement prices are lower and beef prices higher than in 2010, which decreases the value of longevity.

Replacement prices have been volatile.

Beef futures are forecast to remain high.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (6) Cole and VanRaden

Some economic drivers Forecast base milk price was $14.93

in 2010, revised to $16.00 last fall, and revised to $18.00 in July.

Forecast replacement heifer price was $1,910 in 2010, revised to $1,440 last fall, and revised to $1,700 in July.

Forecast cull cow price was $0.54/pound in 2010, revised to $0.65 last fall, and revised to $0.75 in July.

Forecast feed costs were revised up by about 15% in July.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (7) Cole and VanRaden

We have more traits to describe fertility

Daughter pregnancy rate from lactation data (1960s to present).

Heifer and cow conception rates from fertility data (2003 to present).

Fertility traits benefit from multi-trait processing.

Genetic correlationsare high and manyobservations aremissing.

DPR HCR CCRDPR 0.04 0.41 0.87HCR 0.10 0.02 0.54CCR 0.70 0.10 0.03

Heritabilities (diagonal) and genetic(above) and phenotypic (below)correlations.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (8) Cole and VanRaden

Graziers face different challenges

Graziers face different economic pressures

Notably, more fertility and less longevity

GM$ 2014 does not include dairy form, as proposed by Gay et al. (2014).

We’re working with the traits we have.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (9) Cole and VanRaden

Trait

Relative emphasis on traits in index (%)

NM$2010

CM$2014

FM$2014

GM$

2014

NM$2014

Milk 0 -8 24 7 7Fat 19 20 24 22 24Protein 16 25 0 13 15PL 22 16 19 11 19SCS –10 -8 -5 -6 –7UDC 7 6 7 8 7FLC 4 3 4 4 4BDC –6 -4 -4 -4 –4DPR 11 4 4 14 5HCR … 1 2 5 2CCR

…1 2 3 2

CA$ 5

4 5 5 5

Where are we going?

More yield(44%)

Less fertility,more traits

(9%)

Less PL(19%)

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (10) Cole and VanRaden

Including recessive tests

• There are currently 20 recessives tracked in US dairy cattle.• Not all are undesirable (e.g.,

polled).• Gene dosages are needed in

order to include haplotype or SNP tests in NM$.• Could follow after Gengler et al.

(2007) or Van Doormaal and Kistemaker (2008).

• Estimating associated economic values will be challenging.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (11) Cole and VanRaden

Feed costs are problematic

• New data for calculating the feed costs for fat and protein are arriving.

• The current model says protein costs more to make than fat.

• Intake data indicate even higher protein costs, which seems counterintuitive.

• Phenotypic and genetic correlations may differ, as with SCS.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (12) Cole and VanRaden

Subindices may aid interpretation

• Calving ease and stillbirth are combined into a calving ability subindex, CA$.

• This idea could be extended to other trait groups, such as yield and fertility.

• Emphasizes the economic value of the group over individual traits.

• Traits can be added without changing the interpretation of the subindex.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (13) Cole and VanRaden

Conclusions

• More emphasis on yield and less on fertility & longevity in Dec. 2014 NM$.• NM$ 2014 is correlated by 0.965

with NM$ 2010, and by 0.991 with 2006 NM$.

• Increased genetic progress worth $8 million/year is expected if all breeders select on NM$.

• The addition of GM$ provides a new selection tool for graziers.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (14) Cole and VanRaden

Acknowledgments

• The members of SCC084, “Genetic selection and mating strategies to improve the well-being and efficiency of dairy cattle”.

• Investigators on AFRI Integrated Project 2011-68004-30340, “Genomic Selection and Herd Management for Improved Feed Efficiency of the Dairy Industry”.

CDCB Open Industry Meeting, Linthicum Heights, MD, August 5, 2014 (15) Cole and VanRaden

Questions?

http://gigaom.com/2012/05/31/t-mobile-pits-its-math-against-verizons-the-loser-common-sense/shutterstock_76826245/