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Small, smart, manyversus
few and bespoke Dr. T. X. Hammes
Institute for National Strategic StudiesNational Defense University
America according to the World
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Even biggeridiots
Subject of talk
Tasked to with what West will use But drones are also the threat High end to super empowered small
groups and individuals
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Emerging ThreatsSLIDE 5Air and sea defenseCyber and space SLDIE 6 - Small smart and many – vs few and exquisite Can they defeat us by attacking bases, ships, supplies, individual vehiclesDriven by technology convergence
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Situation todayExtremely rapid technological change Many related fields Materials science Energetics Robotics Artificial Intelligence 3d Printing
Unprecedented?
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1914-1939
MetallurgyPower systems – Steam turbines Internal combustion engines
Electronics - Radio/radarWeaponry
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Post WWI NavalSLIDE 10USN focuses on battleships Dominant form of naval system Post-WWI commissioned 18, building 2 Primary interwar investment of USN
Commercial development in aircraft Rapid advancement in capabilities Minimal USN investment – 5 CVs, 3
converted shipsLittle on submarines
1914 - 1939
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Changing today
Nano – materials, explosives, batteries -12Drones – range, payload, materials -13Artificial intelligence –3D Printing -
SLIDE 12
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Nano-energetics
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SLIDE 7
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For sale today
AI/Autonomous Drones
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AI - AutonomyWhat think of – what isRANGE – Transatlantic 1998 compositePAYLOAD – ounces to hundreds of #COST - $300 to billionDIY projects Find red objects--Follow a person’s face
Amazon project 20 lbs, 100 miles Non-GPS
Swiss post office15
3D: Capability + Volume
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113 materials –100 times faster - SLIDE
IED that hunts you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QRrSriR5b6s
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Forest Racing –Star Wars is here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL0t5kPf6EForest racing drones 1:10 to 2:15
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--Ukranian drones support militia--Funded by mothers--Flown by volunteers
3D Printed, AutonomousDrone
00 – 0:30
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Slocum Glider
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ImplicationsPower projection using conventional platforms becomes much more difficult Does tactical defense gain an edge? APOE/APODs vulnerable? Major bases vulnerable?
Unconventional attackers only “bring the detonator?”National mobilization of industry?
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Everyone has them –and they are evolving
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hMR86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45
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Airpower’s role
Hold high groundDefend the homelandProvide strike Support joint/combined force Manage unsolvable problems
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Backup slides
Additional videos of drones
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo7x2Vcjjg Drone Warfare for the Poor 2:00 to
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http://www.wired.com/2014/09/military-grade-drone-can-printed-anywhere/1:45$2500, off the shelf40 minutes, autonomous (android phone)1.5 lbsNew printing 25 times faster.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hMR86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 Drones cost approaches zerohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL0t5kPf6EForest racing drones 2:45 to 3:15
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSYQyAljYOYAutonomous drone with LIDARhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUpmPUcnuBY&feature=youtu.be&autoplay=1Drone with immersion goggles
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