Top 20 Most Mentioned Political Leaders Online of July [Report]

Duration: July 2013

most mentioned political leaders july 2013

#indiasmostmentioned

As the countdown to the general elections begins, social media conversations around possible candidates for the top job and other political leaders have gathered momentum . Blogworks Most Mentioned Political Leaders Index is a monthly barometer of public mood and conversations about the top political leaders on social media in India.

1

Duration: July 2013

2

Background

The 4th edition of ‘Blogworks India’s Most Mentioned Political Leaders’ analyses online mentions of the top 20 political leaders being talked about, during July 2013 in comparison to June 2013. Out of the top 20, we identified seven leaders basis their share of mentions in online conversations and basis their names being compared for the top job amongst stakeholders online. We have undertaken a further analysis on public sentiment and key conversation drivers.

We will be bringing to you monthly updates up to the elections.

3

executive summary

•  Since January 2013, mentions of Narendra Modi have seen the highest and most consistent increase; for all other politicians, the shift in mentions has been fluctuating topically every month

•  Amidst online voices, it appears to be advantage Modi as against his contender in the 2nd spot Rahul Gandhi. Where Narendra Modi's mentions increased by the rate of 126% since January 2013, Rahul Gandhi's mentions decreased by the rate of 2% in the same period.

•  In the period June-July, Modi continues to be at the top of the most mentioned political leaders index with almost nine times more buzz than Rahul Gandhi

•  Digvijay Singh made an entry in the top most mentioned political leaders, he moved from 20th spot in June to 7th spot in July 2013. Criticizing his stand on Batla House encounter, BJP Spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi said the whole country stands together with Martyr MC Sharma. Her statement was widely shared by people.

•  Digvijay Singh’s disparaging statement against his fellow party leader Meenakshi Natarajan got criticism by people and media, thus taking him to the 7th spot.

•  ‘Speculation around Telagana contributed to ‘highest mentions under Law, order & internal affairs’ for Sonia Gandhi

•  Sushma Swaraj has consistently been in the top 20 since January 2013, however, in July she dropped out of top 20.

•  July saw a surge in negative sentiment for Rahul Gandhi – increasing from 27% in June to 82% in July 2013.‘Corruption’ was the most mentioned theme for Rahul Gandhi in July 2013 and 89% of these mentions under ‘Corruption’ were negative

•  ‘Development and economy’ which was the plank on which Narendra Modi had entered conversations has dropped over a period of time, while conversations under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ have increased in July

•  Arvind Kejriwal appears to be moving beyond ‘corruption’ as his key election pivot. His Azad Maidan rally in support of 14,000 homeless families and comments on the Batla encounter contributed to highest mentions under’ ‘Law, order & internal affairs

4

Overall buzz

Themes & SENTIMENT

Narendra Modi: ‘Development and economy’ which was the plank on which Narendra Modi had entered conversations has dropped over a period of time, while conversations on ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ have increased, in July 2013, ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ was the most mentioned theme for Narendra Modi.

For Modi, the positive mentions under ‘Caste & religion’ have been increasing while negative mentions have seen a decline, since January 2013. Since his speech at Vibrant Gujarat, people perceived him as a leader, moving away from ‘Caste & religion’ based agendas in January. Narendra Modi’s name was cleared by Special Investigation Team (SIT) from Gujarat riots which generated positive reactions. Further, comments of online influencers like Suhel Seth, Anupam Kher, Harsha Bhogle and Chetan Bhagat expressing disappointment over 65 MPs writing to US President Obama to maintain the current policy of denying visa to Modi contributed to these positive reactions resulting in a monthly drop of 1% in negative sentiment since January under ‘Caste and religion’.

The trend of increasing positive mentions and decreasing negative mentions have also been observed for ‘Development and economy’.

.

Rahul Gandhi: July saw a surge in negative sentiment for Gandhi – increasing from 27% in June to 82% in July 2013.‘Corruption’ was the most mentioned theme for Rahul Gandhi in July 2013 and 89% of these mentions under ‘Corruption’ were negative. He was termed as the ‘biggest beneficiary of corrupt dynastic politics’ and he has also been mentioned for his alleged role in the Railgate scam.

The news of Youth Congress activists beating up AIYF activists including women drew negative mentions for him.

Negative mentions under ‘Caste & religion’ increased by 158%. This surge in July under ‘Caste & religion’ from June could be attributed to the conversations where people termed Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a Dalit home as ‘drama’, instead of visiting the homes of the victims of the mid-day meal tragedy.

5

Themes & SENTIMENT

Sonia Gandhi: ‘Corruption’ related mentions continued to dominate conversations for Sonia Gandhi. BJP spokesperson, Meenakshi Lekhi's statement mocking Sonia Gandhi and expressing support for Batla House encounter martyr MC Sharma's family was widely shared by people online.

‘Law, order & internal affairs’ was the highest talked about theme for her in July 2013 followed by ‘Caste & religion’ and ‘Development & economy’.

People spoke negatively about Sonia Gandhi for not giving her go-ahead on the creation of Telangana, comparing the situation to 2000, when 3 new states were created by the government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Manmohan Singh: ‘Development & economy’ was the most talked about theme for him in July 2013 His perceived lack of a stand on the Food Security Bill drew negative mentions under ‘Development & economy’.

He also continued to draw flak online for his silence and inaction on important issues such as the creation of Telangana and the blasts at Bodh Gaya.

.

6

Themes & SENTIMENT

Arvind Kejriwal: ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ was the most talked about theme for Arvind Kejriwal in July 2013. His rally at Azad Maidan in Mumbai on 11 July, 2013 seeking justice for 14,000 homeless families drew positive mentions, and negative mentions arose due to his terming the Batla House encounter fake.

Nitish Kumar: Mentions under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ for Nitish Kumar increased in July 2013. with people mentioning him negatively in conversations around the blasts at Bodh Gaya.

People spoke negatively about him given his undue focus on his image as a secular leader and inability to focus on issues such as the Bodh Gaya blasts and the mid-day meal tragedy in Bihar.

Sushma Swaraj: Mentions for Sushma Swaraj decreased in the month of July, as compared to June 2013.

Her statement after the Bodh Gaya blasts about not allowing a Bamiyan demolition in India, drew negative comments from people, who reacted, reminding her about the Babri Masjid demolition.

7

Duration: July 2013

buzz and rank summary – JUNE 2013 vs. JULY 2013

8

Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi

Manmohan Singh Arvind Kejriwal

Nitish Kumar Digvijay Singh

LK Advani Rajnath Singh

Mayawati Atal Bihari Vajpayee

Anna Hazare Mamata Banerjee

Manish Tewari Shakeel Ahmed Omar Abdullah Shashi Tharoor

Kapil Sibal Ajay Maken

P chidambaram

Jun-13

Jul-13

Duration: July 2013

buzz and rank summary – JUNE 2013 vs. JULY 2013 Shakeel Ahmed’s remark linking the formation of the Indian Mujahideen with the 2002 Gujarat riots led to a significant number of conversations around him, and he moved up into the top 20 in July 2013. He had no mentions in June.

Shashi Tharoor moved to the 17th position in July 2013, up from the 42nd position in June. Mentions around him were people’s reactions to his statement saying Kashmiri pandits left Kashmir due to BJP policies, and comparison of his ‘cattle class’ statement with Narendra Modi’s ‘puppies’ statement.

9

Rank Buzz June July Political Leader June July

1 1 Narendra Modi 974,978 902,021 3 2 Rahul Gandhi 105,991 93,134 5 3 Sonia Gandhi 64,205 60,009 6 4 Manmohan Singh 52,403 51,827 7 5 Arvind Kejriwal 27,209 30,764 4 6 Nitish Kumar 65,780 29,305 20 7 Digvijay Singh 5,782 25,724 2 8 LK Advani 206,142 24,782 8 9 Rajnath Singh 21,617 18,873 21 10 Mayawati 5,775 14,498 9 11 Atal Bihari Vajpayee 15,603 13,961 16 12 Anna Hazare 7,549 13,217 11 13 Mamata Banerjee 10,808 11,786 26 14 Manish Tewari 5,083 10,838 125 15 Shakeel Ahmed 0 10,014 18 16 Omar Abdullah 6,219 9,281 42 17 Shashi Tharoor 1,857 8,088 34 18 Kapil Sibal 3,441 7,620 31 19 Ajay Maken 3,924 7,277 44 20 P Chidambaram 1,734 6,729

Duration: July 2013

channels

10

Twitter continued to be the top channel in July 2013.

Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi

Manmohan Singh Arvind Kejriwal

Nitish Kumar Digvijay Singh

LK Advani Rajnath Singh

Mayawati Atal Bihari Vajpayee

Anna Hazare Mamata Banerjee

Manish Tewari Shakeel Ahmed Omar Abdullah Shashi Tharoor

Kapil Sibal Ajay Maken

P Chidambaram

TWITTER

FACEBOOK

YOUTUBE

BLOGS

FORUMS

FLICKR

AGGREGATORS

MAINSTREAM MEDIA

TUMBLR

YAHOO

Duration: July 2013

depth of engagement

11

Total mentions Total reach on Twitter Unique authors Narendra Modi 902,021 174,191,754 215,618

Rahul Gandhi 93,134 27,116,762 22,808

Sonia Gandhi 60,009 18,970,957 14,721

Manmohan Singh 51,827 22,035,260 12,522

Arvind Kejriwal 30,764 9,911,617 6,728

Nitish Kumar 29,305 10,810,063 7,500

Digvijay Singh 25,724 8,827,908 9,685

LK Advani 24,782 20,729,267 8,108

Rajnath Singh 18,873 16,235,782 6,812

Mayawati 14,498 11,852,833 5,586

Atal Bihari Vajpayee 13,961 8,605,949 4,783

Anna Hazare 13,217 8,851,921 5,683

Mamata Banerjee 11,786 6,991,862 2,371

Manish Tewari 10,838 7,749,038 4,688

Shakeel Ahmed 10,014 7,758,510 3,937

Omar Abdullah 9,281 4,876,188 2,307

Shashi Tharoor 8,088 11,175,169 3,969

Kapil Sibal 7,620 5,937,670 3,205

Ajay Maken 7,277 8,333,360 3,491

P Chidambaram 6,729 3,710,297 809

While the overall mentions of Narendra Modi declined in July, his total reach and the total number of unique authors talking about him increased.

Mentions of Ajay Maken increased by 85% in July. 2013. His statement asking about Gujarat’s contribution in the field of sports drew reactions from people which contributed to his mentions.

Duration: July 2013

themes

12 12

Duration: July 2013

themes by sentiment

13 13

Duration: July 2013

buzz

Buzz for Narendra Modi decreased by 7% in July 2013.

Several people on social media highlighted and appreciated Narendra Modi for being honest and being secular, many expressed disappointment over 65 MPs writing to US President Barack Obama to maintain the current policy of denying visa to Modi, and these drove conversations for him.

14 14

92,073

1,36,060

1,39,525

5,07,163

4,21,321

9,74,978

9,02,021

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

NARENDRA MODI

Duration: July 2013

buzz

In the current debate on possible prime ministerial candidates, historian Ramchandra Guha's statement about Rahul Gandhi as a likeable but confused and mediocre politician was the key conversation driver this month.

15 15

RAHUL GANDHI

1,05,342

43,478

52,545

1,18,325

58,642

1,05,991

93,134

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Duration: July 2013

buzz

BJP spokesperson, Meenakshi Lekhi's statement mocking Sonia Gandhi and expressing support for Batla House encounter martyr MC Sharma's family was widely shared by people online.

16 16

SONIA GANDHI

41,095

28,706

25,730

45,920

70,881

64,205

60,009

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Duration: July 2013

buzz

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh continued to draw flak online for his silence and inaction on important issues such as the creation of Telangana, the debate on the Food Security Bill and the blasts at Bodh Gaya.

17 17

MANMOHAN SINGH

42630

30931

24967

58442

1,00,341

52,403

51,827

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Duration: July 2013

buzz

Arvind Kejriwal's statement about the Batla House encounter being a fake encounter and his being spoken of as among the first to expose the Maharashtra Irrigation Scam were the two key conversation drivers for the month.

18 18

ARVIND KEJRIWAL

14446

22238

14680

35800

19,694

27,209

30,764

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Duration: July 2013

buzz

People’s negative reactions about the blasts at Bodh Gaya and the mid-day meal tragedy in Chhapra drove conversations for Nitish Kumar in the month of July.

His overall mentions came down by 55% this month.

19 19

NITISH KUMAR

4,606

4,736

4,336

31,446

5,947

65,780

29,305

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Duration: July 2013

buzz

Mentions for Sushma Swaraj almost halved in July and she moved out of top 20 most mentions political leaders.

People’s opinion that she could be the prime ministerial candidate for BJP if Narendra Modi is not nominated drove conversations for her.

20 20

SUSHMA SWARAJ

8988

3644

4492

11410

10,125

10,696

5,981

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

21

Caste & religion

•  Since May 2013, negative mentions for Narendra Modi around ‘Caste & religion’ have been coming down.

•  Positive: People have supported the comments and views of online influencers like Suhel Seth, Anupam Kher, Harsha Bhogle and Chetan Bhagat who expressed their disappointment over 65 MPs writing to US President Obama to maintain the current policy of denying visa to Modi.

•  Negative: Aamir Raza Hussain’s statement holding Narendra Modi responsible for the Gujarat riots was shared by people.

NARENDRA MODI

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

22

Law, order & internal affairs

•  Positive mentions increased and negative mentions decreased under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ in July as compared to June.

•  Positive: Narendra Modi’s opinion on Telangana and his statement that “India needs modernisation and not westernisation” was widely shared by people.

•  Negative: His association with the Gujarat riots contributed to his negative mentions.

NARENDRA MODI

Duration: July 2013

23

2133 shares 2375 shares

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

24

Caste & religion

•  Negative mentions for Rahul Gandhi under ‘Caste & religion’ increased from 3% in June to 59% in July.

•  Positive: Rahul Gandhi’s statement “The Indian flag is my religion” in response to a question about his religious beliefs drove positive mentions for him.

•  Negative: People terming Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a Dalit home in Jhanshi in 2011 as ‘drama’, instead of visiting the homes of the victims of the mid-day meal tragedy drove negative mentions.

RAHUL GANDHI

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

25

Corruption

•  Positive mentions for Rahul Gandhi under ‘Corruption’ have been declining since May 2013. Negative mentions have also increased from 65% in May to 89% in July.

•  Negative: Rahul Gandhi’s alleged role in the Railgate Scam and the perception of being the biggest beneficiary of corrupt dynastic politics drove negative mentions.

RAHUL GANDHI

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

26


•  Under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ his negative mentions increased from 33% in May to 77% in July.

•  Positive: People positively mentioned him for speaking with humility and empathy while talking about the Sikh riots.

•  Negative: He was mentioned negatively after a girl was raped by a Youth Congress leader, and also when an NSUI member made a statement about the Sikh riots being necessary.

RAHUL GANDHI

Duration: July 2013

27


Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

28

Caste & religion

•  Negative mentions under ‘Caste & religion’ increased from 20% in June to 87% in July.

•  Negative: She was negatively mentioned in conversations about the alleged role of Congress leaders in the Gujarat riots, and for misusing the word secularism.

Corruption

•  Positive: Some people believe that she was wrongly dragged by the BJP into the Bofors case due to her Italian origin.

•  Negative: Like Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi’s alleged role in the Railgate Scam and people’s perception of her being a practitioner of corrupt dynastic politics drove negative mentions for her.

SONIA GANDHI

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

29


•  Negative: People spoke negatively about Sonia Gandhi for not giving her go-ahead on the creation of Telangana, comparing the situation to 2000, when 3 new states were created by the government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Development & economy

•  Sonia Gandhi has been consistently under criticism on the subject of ‘Development & economy’.

•  Negative: People criticized her for pushing the Food Security Bill and termed it ‘mindless welfarism’.

SONIA GANDHI

Duration: July 2013

30


Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

31

Defence & foreign policy

•  Positive: He was praised by people after the Cabinet Committee on Security chaired by him, gave the nod for mountain strike corps along the China border.

•  Negative: He was criticized for not paying tribute to the soldiers who sacrificed their life in Kargil.


•  Positive: People spoke about him as being the only person who can take brave steps towards liberalisation to take the country forward.

•  Negative: He was criticized for not taking a stand on the Food Security Bill.

Manmohan Singh

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

32

Caste & religion

•  Positive: Manmohan Singh's apology statement for 1984 Sikh riots, in comparison with Narendra Modi's 'puppy' comment.

•  Negative: He was negatively mentioned for misusing the word secularism, along with Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.

Manmohan Singh

Duration: July 2013

33


Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

34

Corruption

•  His continuous efforts against corruption led to an increase in positive mentions since January. Whether it was his stand on Lokpal bill, alleging Union minister Kapil Sibal for his involvement in Vodafone tax case, making statements against Delhi Chief minister Sheila Dixit for increased water and electricity bill in Delhi or exposing Maharashtra irrigation scam, all contributed to his positive mentions for him under corruption.

•  Positive: People perceived that Arvind Kejriwal was the first to expose the Maharashtra Irrigation Scam.

•  Negative: People commented that his wife who is an administrator has not been transferred for the last 20 years, which goes against Arvind Kejriwal’s promise of a corruption-free government.

ARVIND KEJRIWAL

Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

35


•  Negative mentions for him under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ increased from 1% in June to 37% in July 2013. This was because of people criticizing his statement that the Batla house encounter was fake.

•  Positive: Arvind Kejriwal’s rally in Azad Maidan on 11 July, 2013 seeking justice for 14,000 homeless families drew positive mentions.

•  Negative: Negative mentions came from people who were unhappy about his terming the Batla House encounter fake.

ARVIND KEJRIWAL

Duration: July 2013

36


Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

37

Caste & religion

•  Negative: People spoke negatively about him given his undue focus on his image as a secular leader and inability to focus on issues such as the Bodh Gaya blasts and the mid-day meal tragedy in Bihar.


•  Since May 2013, positive mentions for Nitish Kumar under ‘Development & economy’ have been coming down.

•  Negative: The mid-day meal tragedy in the Chhapra district in Bihar, and the terrible condition of roads in Patna drove negative mentions for him.

NITISH KUMAR

Duration: July 2013

38


Duration: July 2013

THEMES BY SENTIMENT

39

Caste & religion •  Negative mentions for

Sushma Swaraj under ‘Caste & religion’ have increased from 55% in May to 91% in July.

•  Negative: Her statement after the Bodh Gaya blasts about not allowing a Bamiyan demolition in India, drew negative comments from people who reacted, reminding her about the Babri Masjid demolition

Corruption

•  Negative mentions for Sushma Swaraj under ‘Corruption’ have also been witnessing a rise since May 2013.

•  Negative: A remark by Digvijay Singh that illegal mining flourished under Sushma Swaraj, drew negative mentions for her.

SUSHMA SWARAJ

Duration: July 2013

40


METHODOLOGY

§  A list of 187 Indian political leaders were considered for this report.

§  These leaders are Cabinet Ministers, Ministers of states, Chief Ministers of states, important leaders from all political parties, and independent political leaders.

§  In total 1,479,605 mentions of various combinations of these keywords were found between 1 July to 31 July 2013.

§  The top 20 political leaders were identified basis their share of mentions in online conversations.

§  Out of the top 20 political leaders, seven leaders were identified basis their share of mentions in online conversations and basis their names being compared for the top job amongst stakeholders online. These include -

§  Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar and Sushma Swaraj

41

METHODOLOGY

§  Thematic analysis was done for the following themes identified through key government ministries but which were sometimes clubbed based on synergies of the themes:

§  Corruption; Development & economy; Caste & religion; Women safety & security; Youth & employment; Defense & foreign policy; Law, order & internal affairs; Science & technology; Education & healthcare.

§  For each political leader, the top 100 most discussed and shared conversation threads were analysed. A sentiment was assigned to each conversation, and total sentiment was calculated by multiplying the number of times each of those conversations were reshared.

42

Duration: July 2013

disclaimer

We have made all efforts to keep the report error free. Please do point out any errors that you may notice and we will incorporate your insights in future editions. Please write to us at [email protected] with the subject line ‘corrections’.

About Blogworks Driven by purpose and meaning, Blogworks helps global brands and organisations strategically leverage social media to draw insights, engage stakeholders in conversations, build communities, and co-create for business impact. Visit us at www.blogworks.in. Connect with us at [email protected]

43

News & Politics

Top 20 Most Mentioned Political Leaders Online of July [Report]