Part 1: The end of liberal democracies with Brexit and the Trump Administration?

In 2014, I attended my graduation ceremony at Bath, England, presided by Prince Edward. The venue was the Assembly Room of Bath, a historical place, where it not only bombed by the Luftwaffe (the German air force), but also witnessed the decline of the British Empire and the era of Pax Americana – a state of relative international peace overseen by the U.S.. Under Pax Americana, there has been a relative peaceful world after the Second World War. However, last year, the result of the referendum of Brexit (Britain leaves the European Union) and the electoral victory of Trump in the U.S. presidential election posed a double dagger to many enlightened people.

I was born in Hong Kong, a British national with Chinese ancestry. Although I am a dual national, I regard myself as an international citizen, travelling around the globe and having a few friends around every corner of the world. For me, globalisation is a phenomenon whilst inclusiveness, diversity and multi-culturalism are the protocols in my social upbringings from Hong Kong and Canada. From my experience, many people have been able to build their own families, own their careers and bear their children with the liberties given from the international world order after the Second World War.

However, things have been changing dramatically with the rise of populism, nationalism and protectionism. After the Second World War, the political configuration in the Western liberal democracies has been either left or right. On the left spectrum, it is about expanding the welfare state, while on the right spectrum, it is about cutting taxes for wealthy people and businesses. The central theme of all issues has been around the re-distribution of wealth or distributive justice. Through the mediation of the left-right categorisation, sensible compromises across a wide range of issues have been created. However, for example, in the U.S., due to polarisation and partisanship, it is more difficult for both left and right parties to compromise with each other. As a result, they have left a lot of issues unresolved, such as gun control, health care, abortion, etc...

Moreover, globalisation and de-industrialisation in the Western world have left behind many people such as blue-collared workers and people with less formal education. Traditional left and right parties have failed to offer antidotes to these pressing issues, which have alienated many voters. As a result, voters’ distrust of the establishment or politicians has been high. This phenomena has normalised radical or racist discourse. People feel that politicians no longer listen to or care for their interests. As a result, the populist radical right have capitalised on this trend. The Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the 45 th president of the United States are the successful examples of this populist movement. You may ask one question: is there anything wrong with this populist movement?

The first and foremost impact will be the our liberal international order after the Second World War with the creations of the United Nations (UN) and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation). Given the moral authority of the UN and the collective defense capabilities of NATO, we have sustained peace and prosperity and ended the Cold War with the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Although there have been some regional conflicts and proxy wars, at least so far we have avoided another disastrous world war in the continents of Asia, Africa and Europe. However, the election of Donald Trump has implied that the United States of America is no longer willing to uphold the liberal international order. Under his rhetoric of “America first”, the United States may act under much narrower lens of its national interests, at the expense of our hard-earned liberal political and economic international order. During the election campaign, Donald Trump called NATO as obsolete. After his inauguration, he signed an Executive Order, pulling out the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPPA).

The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its continuing intervention in the Eastern part of Ukraine as well as the Chinese expansion in the South China Sea have already sent us a wake-up call. They are challenging the liberal international order established after the Second World War. In the past, American soft and hard power together with its allies can deter any aggression from foreign powers. However, the United States under the Trump administration will most likely abandon the traditional liberal foreign policy, encouraging regional powers such as Russia, China and Iran to reshape the world to conform to their interests. The world peace will be at peril.

On the other side of the Atlantic, there is another ongoing crisis in the European Union (EU). The EU’s mission not only pursues European interests, but also preserves the European peace. Having learned the catastrophes from the two World War, Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany signed the Treaty of Rome, which created the European Economic Community (EEC) and a custom union. In 1973, Britain and other European states joined the community. Under the Masstricht Treaty, the European Union was established. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Eastern part of Germany and the former Warsaw Pact member states joined the union under the ‘four freedoms’ of : movement of goods, services, people and money.

However, after the referendum on 23rd June last year, Britain is unplugging from the European Union (EU), going to trigger the Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. The consequences on the European peace will be tremendous. Historically, Britain was keen on maintaining the balance of power and preventing any European power to dominate the continental Europe. The British involvements in the Napoleonic Wars, the two World Wars are the classic examples of the British foreign policy. After the Second World War, the former Prime Minister Winston Churchill was one of the first to call for the creation of a 'United States of Europe'. Following the Second World War, he was convinced that only a united Europe could guarantee peace. His objective was to eliminate the European ills of nationalism and warmongering once and for all. The Brexit suggests a British withdrawal from European affairs, in support of narrow and lesser British national interests. When I was at a NATO meeting, I personally witnessed that many

global issues like climate change, refugee crisis and terrorism require an internationally concerted action from all states. Pulling out from the European Union is not a wise move indeed.

Domestic policy is the best foreign policy. In liberal democracies, we accept foreign immigrants with different ethnic, religious and cultural backgrounds. We believe that our prosperity, peace and stability have been built on the contributions and talents from those immigrants. However, populists hold an opposite view, promoting economic protectionism, conservative values, border control and foreigners as a threat. President Trump appointed Steve Bannon as chief strategist to the president, who is the Wizard of Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, anti-female and anti-homosexual hate media, Breitbait. Not surprisingly, the new administration has just signed an executive order to halt all refugee admissions and to temporarily bar people from seven Muslim-majority countries. Despite being repealed by the Court of Appeal, this executive order and the appointment of Bannon have already set the right-winged tone for this new administration in the White House. Due to its pursuit of a narrower vision of post-Brexit, Britain, a traditional pillar for liberties, multi-culturalism and the rule of law, may not be capable of exercising its substantial or positive influence on the United States on these policies of concern.

Is 2016 marking the twilight of the liberal world order? Can we change the tide of populism to revive the spirits of liberalism?

Alan Ng, a Bath graduate at MA International Security