Project Phoenix - Integrated Project Phoenix - Integrated Assessment of Global Warming Impacts, Assessment of Global Warming Impacts,

Mitigation and Adaptation with Multi-Mitigation and Adaptation with Multi-region and Multi-sector Model and region and Multi-sector Model and

Scenario Development Scenario Development

Shunsuke Mori (RITE, Tokyo Univ.of Science) Shunsuke Mori (RITE, Tokyo Univ.of Science)

Toshimasa Tomoda, Hiromi Yamamoto,Toshimasa Tomoda, Hiromi Yamamoto,

Keigo Akimoto, Koji Tokimatsu, Keigo Akimoto, Koji Tokimatsu,

Ayami Hayashi,Takashi Honma (RITE), Ayami Hayashi,Takashi Honma (RITE),

Takanobu Kosugi,(Ritsumeikan University)Takanobu Kosugi,(Ritsumeikan University)

Integrated Assessment Models as a platform Integrated Assessment Models as a platform of the policy and technology assessmentsof the policy and technology assessments

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been developed since 1990s as a powerful tool for this developed since 1990s as a powerful tool for this subject. subject. However,However,

Economic models and technology assessments deal Economic models and technology assessments deal with near future (until 2020) while existing IAMs with near future (until 2020) while existing IAMs mainly talk about near 2100.mainly talk about near 2100.

Economic models and technology assessments Economic models and technology assessments mainly analyze country level while existing IAMs mainly analyze country level while existing IAMs mainly aggregate the world into 10-15 regions.mainly aggregate the world into 10-15 regions.

Globalization, civilization, penetration of IT, industrial Globalization, civilization, penetration of IT, industrial structure changes etc. are not well discussed in the structure changes etc. are not well discussed in the global environmental context.global environmental context.

Project PhoenixProject Phoenix- Paths toward Harmony Of Environment, - Paths toward Harmony Of Environment, Natural resources and Industry complex – Natural resources and Industry complex –

Developed by the RITE - Research Institute of Developed by the RITE - Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the EarthInnovative Technology for the Earth

Supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade Supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as a part of an “International and Industry as a part of an “International Research Promotion Funds for the Global Research Promotion Funds for the Global Environment”Environment”

A project for 2002-2006 (five years)A project for 2002-2006 (five years)

Structure of Project Phoenix – three WGsStructure of Project Phoenix – three WGsMulti region and sector model GTAP

+ Easy to connect with GAMS- Dynamics- Aggregated energy technologies and sources

(Model development WG)

Energy demand, economic activities, structural changes

+ Data availability (trade and economic statistics)- Societal structural change

(Warming factors WG)

Assessments of global warming

+ Availability on food, water, climate change studies- Uncertainties of global warming damages

(Warming impacts WG)

A: Economic activities GTAP modelmulti regional and multi-sectoral - CGE model- static model- energy flow and technologies should be integrated

B: Energy flow modelexisting research activities in RITEDNE-21 and LDNE-21Energy demand scenarios should be provided based on the economic and societal story-lines.

H: Assessments of regional optionsCGS, distributed energy systemsrenewable sourcesrecycling and waste managements

G： Energy demandtransportationpublic and householdlong-term growth patternsstructural changes

I: Regional structure changecivilizationsocial structuremodeling methods

C: Assessments of Global climate changesimple climate models (MAGICC, BERN)

D: Assessments of regional climate changeGCM dataGIS

E： Assessments of global warmingwater resourceocean, river and lakesland usefood productionvegetation etc.

J: Biospherehuman healthimpacts on biosphere

F: Food supply and demand

subjects in 2004

K: Mitigation investmentex-post expenditureex-ante investmentcost-benefit integrated assessments

subjects after 2005

L: GHG emission scenariodetailed regional emission scenario

Activities in Model Development WGActivities in Model Development WG GTAP (Purdue Univ.) incorporates more than 60 regions and GTAP (Purdue Univ.) incorporates more than 60 regions and

sectors and is still being expanded.sectors and is still being expanded. GTAP is designed to assess the international trade and GTAP is designed to assess the international trade and

production impacts of various policy options.production impacts of various policy options. GTAP-EG includes energy flow subsystems.GTAP-EG includes energy flow subsystems. GTAP provides comprehensive and consistent world GTAP provides comprehensive and consistent world

economic data base.economic data base.

In Phoenix Project,In Phoenix Project, We aim at the assessments of the certain technologies such We aim at the assessments of the certain technologies such

as energy conversion technologies, carbon capture options, as energy conversion technologies, carbon capture options, biomass production and utilization, etc.biomass production and utilization, etc.

Dynamic model simulation is also needed. Dynamic model simulation is also needed. We impose the bottoming up technology model into the GTAP We impose the bottoming up technology model into the GTAP

model simplifying the frame, if necessary.model simplifying the frame, if necessary.

Conceptual Frame of the Model Intermediate InputsIntermediate Inputs Final demandFinal demand

Non-energy Non-energy sectorssectors Energy sectorsEnergy sectors

tradtradee

InvestInvestmentmentss

ConConsumpsumpTionTion OutputOutput

11 22PrimarPrimar

yySeconSecondarydary mm II CC QQ

Int.Int.InputsInputs

Non-Non-energyenergySectorSector

ss

11

XX1111== QQ11・・aa1111

XX1212== QQ22・・aa1212 ００ ００ ｍｍ 11 II11 CC11 QQ11

22

XX2121== QQ11・・aa2121

XX2222== QQ22・・aa2222 ００ ００ ｍｍ 22 II22 CC22 QQ22

EnergyEnergySectorSector

ss

PrimarPrimaryy ０ ０ ０ ０ ０ ０

XXppee ｍｍ pp ０ ０ ０ ０

EC_pre=EC_pre=PpSPpS

SeconSecondarydary

XeXe11==PPeeEE11

XXe2e2==PPeeEE22 ００ ０ ０ ００ ０ ０

CCee==PPeeEEcc

EC=EC=PPeeEE

ValueValueAddeAdde

dd

KKPPkk ・・ KK11

PPkk ・・ KK22

VA_preVA_pre VA_EVA_E

YY LL

PPLL・・LL11

PPLL・・LL22

OutpuOutputt QQ QQ11 QQ22

EC_pre=EC_pre=PpSPpS

EC=EC=PPeeEE QQ

V=f(K,L,E)-(secondary energy input costs)

VA_E=Σ(capital and labor costs of energy conversion

technologies )+(others)

VA_Epre=Σ(capital and labor costs of primary energy extraction and production co

sts)+(others)

(Total secondary energy supply)=Σ(Conv. Eff.)＊ (primary energy inputs)

Basic row-wise constraints

j

j

j

)Csm,i(X)Csf,i(X)pIm,i(X)Exp,i(X)j(Rv

V*j,iA

)Csm,i(X)Csf,i(X)pIm,i(X)Exp,i(Xj,iXfj,iXd)i(Q

)productsofonDistributi(

)Csm,i(X)Cpf,i(X)i(PY

)pIm,i(X)i(PI)Exp,i(X)i(Pd)j(Rv

V)j,i(A)i(PY

)Csm,i(X)Cpf,i(X)i(PY)pIm,i(X)i(PI

)Exp,i(X)i(Pdj,iXfj,iXd)i(PY)i(Q)i(PY

)balanceIncome(

j

j

j

Basic column-wise constraints

i

j

i

)i(PI)i(Trd)i(Vadd)j(Rv

V)j,i(A)i(PY

)i(PI)i(Trd)i(Vaddj,iXfj,iXd)i(PY

)i(Td)i(PY

Where

Pd(i) : price of i-th goods produced by the national industry

PI(i) : price of i-th goods in the international market (average price of the world trade basket)

PY(i) : average price of i-th goods in the national market

Trd(i): international transportation tariff of i-th goods

Integration of energy flowIntegration of energy flow

EIS Y AGR SER CRU OTR COL GAS OIL ELECRU 0

OTR 0

COL

GAS 0

OIL

ELE 0

Non energy sectors ( j ) Energy fl ow Trade Consumpti on

Producti on

Pri ces

0

0

tOILCRUE ,,

tMeE ,,teE , teP ,tELEes

E ,,

tjsE ,, tCsE ,,

Trade Investment

Consumpti on

EIS Y AGR SER CRU OTR COL GAS OIL ELE M I C Q

YAGRSERCRU 0

OTR 0COLGAS 0OIL 0ELE 0

capi tal Kl abor L

Q

Intermedi ate i nputs Fi nal demand Output

Non energy sectors(j )

Energy sectors (e' )

Int.inputs

Non-energysectors

(i )

EIS

Energysectors 0

0

VADD

Output

tjijQa , teie ECb , titi mx ,, tiI , tiC , t,iQ

tOILCRUEC ,,

tMete EP ,,, teEC ,tELEes

EC ,,

tjsjtjs QeEC ,,, tCsEC ,,

tjtjtj LKV ,,, teV ,

titj QQ ,, tete ECEC ,,

Natural Gas GaseousFuel

Coal

Solid Fuel

Electricity

Crude OilLiquid Fuel

Electricity

Coal powergen.

Oil powergen.

N.Gaspower gen.

Hydro

Nuclear

Hydropower gen.

Nuclearpower gen.

WindWind

power gen.

Coal

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

From OtherRegions

To OtherRegions

Oil

CH4

Model structureModel structureSimple energy conversion processesSimple energy conversion processes

Energy flow in DNE-21 model:simplified structure will be imposed.

N atu ra l G as S p l itt in g

C oa l G a sifica tio n

B io m as s G a sific a t io n

C oa l L iqu efac tion

IG C C w ith C O R ec .2

B io m as s L iqu efac tio n(F e rm e n ta tio n )

S h ift R e a c tion

C O 2 R ec o v e ry

C O L iq u efac tio n2

C O C o m pres sio n2

C O In jec tio n2

M e th an e S y n the sis

M e th an o l S yn th es is

E O RG as W e llA qu ifer

O ce an

M e th an o l S yn th es is

C oa lM e th an o l

C O (p ipe lin e )2

C O (ta nk er )2

W a te r E le c t ro ly sis

W ater E le c tro ly sis

H L iqu efa c tion2 H yd rog en ( tan ker )

M eth an e ( tan ke r)

S yn the tic . O il

H yd rog en (p ipe lin e)

M eth an e (p ip e l ine )

C H L iq ue fac tio n4

M eth an o l U p grad ing (in to G as o line)

O il R ef ine ry(D is tilla tion )

O il R ef ine ry (G as o line)

N a tura l G as

M eth an e

C ru de O il

S yn the tic O il

O il

C o al

C o al

E n e rg y C ro p s

W in d & O .R .E .

P ho tov o lta ics

N u cle ar

H 2

C O

C H 4

C O 2

C O 2

C H O H3

M eth an ol

E lec tric ity

C O D isp os a l2

H y drog en

F ro m O th e r R e g io n s

F ro m O th e r R e g io n s To O th e r R e g io n s

To O th e r R e g io n s

H y dro

G e oth erm al

E lec tric ity

G a seo u s Fu el

L igh t F ue l O il

S olid Fu el

: E le c tr ic ity U se

G a so lin e

H e av y F ue l O il

M o d e rn F u e l W o o d sW o o d R e s id u e s

S aw m i ll R e s id u e sT im b e r S c ra p s

C e re a l H a rv e s t R e sid u e sS u g a rc an e H a rv e s t R es id .

B a g a s se

P ap e r S c ra p s

B lac k L iq u o r

K it ch e n W a s te s

A n im a l W a s te s

H u m a n F e c es

S yn the tic O il

C ru de O il

S O x

S yn .O il

O il R ef ine ry(D is tilla tion )

O il R ef ine ry (G as o line)

B io m as s L iqu efac tio n

B io m as s G a sific a t io n(A n a e r o b ic D ig e s t io n )

C rud e O il

E tha no lC o a l C le an in g

N .G a s p o w e r g e n .

M eth . p o w er g e n .

C o a l p o w e r g e n .

H p o w e r g e n .2

B io m a s sp o w e r g e n .

O il p o w e r g e n .

O il p o w e r g e n .

P h o to v. p o w e r g e n .

H y d r o p o w e r g e n .G e o th . p o w er g en .N u c le a r p o w e r g e n .

S o rb e n t In je c tio nW e t l im e s to n e s c ru b .W e llm a n -L o rd

S o rb e n t In je c tio nW e t l im e s to n e s c ru b .W e llm a n -L o rd

S O x R e c . in E n d U s e

S O x R e c .in E n d U s e

Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors

USAUSA USAUSA CAFCAF Middle African countriesMiddle African countries

CANCAN CanadaCanada SAFSAF South African countriesSouth African countries

MCMMCM Middle American countries Middle American countries JPNJPN JapanJapan

BRABRA BrazilBrazil CHNCHN China, Hong kong, TaiwaChina, Hong kong, Taiwann

SAMSAM Peru, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and other south Uruguay and other south American countries American countries

INDIND IndiaIndia

WEPWEP West and middle European West and middle European countriescountries

ASNASN Asia NIES countriesAsia NIES countries

EEPEEP Hungary, Poland and other Hungary, Poland and other east European countrieseast European countries

TMETME Turkey and Middle-East Turkey and Middle-East countriescountries

FSUFSU Former USSRFormer USSR ANZANZ Australia, New Zealand Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island and Pacific Island countriescountries

NAFNAF North and Middle African North and Middle African countriescountries

XAPXAP Other countriesOther countries

18 regions

Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors

I_S Iron and steel LUM Wood, Pulp and printing

CRP Chemical industry CNS Construction

NFM Non-ferrous metals TWL Textiles, wearing, apparel and leather

NMM Non- metal materials OMF Other manufacturing

TRN Transport equipments AGR Agricultural products

OME Other machinery T_T Transportation

OMN Mining ATP Aviation

FPR Food Products BSR Business services

PPP Paper, pulp and printings SSR Social services

18 non-energy sectors

Outline of developed modelOutline of developed model

Integration of the top-down economic model and bottom-up energIntegration of the top-down economic model and bottom-up energy system modely system model

Division the world into 18 regionsDivision the world into 18 regions

Division the non-energy industrial sector into 18 sectorsDivision the non-energy industrial sector into 18 sectors

Model time span: Up to the middle of the 21Model time span: Up to the middle of the 21stst century for the clima century for the climate policies te policies

Intertemporal nonlinear optimization model (maximization of the diIntertemporal nonlinear optimization model (maximization of the discounted total consumption utilities)scounted total consumption utilities)

Assessment of the comprehensive optimal strategies for the Assessment of the comprehensive optimal strategies for the global warming mitigation considering the inter-temporal and global warming mitigation considering the inter-temporal and regional structure changes of the industryregional structure changes of the industry

Population: SRES-B2 scenarioDiscount rate: 5%/YearDepreciation rate: 5%/YearRate of technical progress: 1%/Year (constant in all regions and sectors)time steps: ΔT=10

Simulation casesSimulation cases

Case1(BAU case)Case1(BAU case)

Without carbon emission control policyWithout carbon emission control policy

Case2Case2　　 ((to check the model consistencyto check the model consistency))

With carbon emission control policy in developed countriesWith carbon emission control policy in developed countries

and without trading of the emission permitand without trading of the emission permit

((regional upper limit of carbon emission in the future is equal to that in base year.)regional upper limit of carbon emission in the future is equal to that in base year.)

Note: In this simulation study, we do not consider the limit of the amount of the natural and labor capital, the explicit stock of the energy conversion plant, and the end effect of the optimization model.

Data Assumption in this simulation studyData Assumption in this simulation study

Data assumption- fossil fuel potential and costs -

Assumed fossil fuel endowment (WEC,2001)Assumed fossil fuel endowment (WEC,2001)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000U

SA

CA

N

MC

M

BR

A

SA

M

WE

P

EE

P

FS

U

NA

F

CA

F

SA

F

JPN

CH

N

IND

AS

N

TM

E

AN

Z

XA

P

Ｅｎｅｒｇｙ　Ｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓ（ＥＪ）

Ｎａｔｕｒａｌ　ＧａｓＣｏａｌ

Crude Oil

Linearized cost function based on Rogner (1997) is assumed.

Sectoral value added in the worldSectoral value added in the world

Case 1Case 1 Case 2Case 2

Value added by sector - WORLD-

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Valu

e ad

ded

(10b

illio

n US

$)

i_s crp

nfm nmm

trn ome

omn fpr

ppp lum

cns twl

omf agr

t_t atp

bsr ssr

cru otr

col sld

gas gdt

oil ele

Value added by Sector - WORLD-

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Value

add

ed (1

0billi

on U

S$)

i_s crp

nfm nmm

trn ome

omn fpr

ppp lum

cns twl

omf agr

t_t atp

bsr ssr

cru otr

col sld

gas gdt

oil ele

Loss of value added in the world for Case 2Loss of value added in the world for Case 2

Loss of Value added in 2037under Carbon Emission Control Policy - WORLD-

-3-2-10123456

i_s

crp

nfm

nmm trn

ome

omn

fpr

ppp

lum

cns

twl

omf

agr

t_t

atp

bsr

ssr

Sector

Los

s of

Val

ue a

dded

(%)

Total Value added by region

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Value

adde

d (10

billio

n US$

)

XAPANZTMEASNINDCHNJ PNSAFCAFNAFFSUEEPWEPSAMBRAMCMCANUSA

Regional value added in the worldRegional value added in the world

Case 1Case 1

Total Value added by region - WORLD-

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Value

adde

d (10

billio

n US$

)

XAPANZTMEASNINDCHNJ PNSAFCAFNAFFSUEEPWEPSAMBRAMCMCANUSA

Case 2Case 2

World final energy consumptionWorld final energy consumption

World Final Energy Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Fina

l Ene

rgy

Cons

umpt

ion (E

J)

eleoilgdtsld

Case 1Case 1 Case 2Case 2

World Final Energy Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Fina

l Ene

rgy

Cons

umpt

ion (E

J)

eleoilgdtsld

World primary energy consumptionWorld primary energy consumption

World Primary Energy Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Prim

ary

Ener

gy C

onsu

mptio

n(E

J)

gascolwindnuclearhydrocru

Case 1Case 1 Case 2Case 2

World Primary Energy Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Prim

ary

Ener

gy C

onsu

mptio

n(E

J)

gascolwindnuclearhydrocru

Power generation in the worldPower generation in the world

Power Generation - WORLD-

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6

YEAR

Powe

r Gen

erat

ion (T

kWh) oil

gdtsldwindnuclearhydro

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

Case 1Case 1 Case 2Case 2

Power Generation - WORLD-

0

10

20

30

40

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Powe

r Gen

erat

ion (T

kWh) oil

gdtsldwindnuclearhydro

Regional carbon emission by regionRegional carbon emission by region

Carbon Emission - WORLD-

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Carb

on E

miss

ion (G

tC)

XAPANZTMEASNINDCHNJ PNSAFCAFNAFFSUEEPWEPSAMBRAMCMCANUSA

Case 1Case 1 Case 2Case 2

Carbon Emission - WORLD-

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

YEAR

Carb

on E

miss

ion (G

tC)

XAPANZTMEASNINDCHNJ PNSAFCAFNAFFSUEEPWEPSAMBRAMCMCANUSA

Exogenous conditions

Lower warming factors & events

Upper warming factors & events

Lower warming factors & events

Upper warming factors & events

4:parameters, constraints, exogenous variables

5:Feedback:consistency

check

3:Scenario generation by X-I method

1:TAR-assumptions2:Structure Analysis among factors

Quantitative IAM- economy- technology- energy- natural resource- etc.

Integration : Scenario Generation and Simulations

Importance of narrative storiesImportance of narrative stories

Many important “descriptive” factors are Many important “descriptive” factors are essential in the global warming issues.essential in the global warming issues.

IPCC-SRES emphasized the role of IPCC-SRES emphasized the role of “narrative” story-lines.“narrative” story-lines.

Structure analysisStructure analysis and the and the Technological Technological Forecasting methodsForecasting methods will provide useful will provide useful information to construct compatible information to construct compatible stories.stories.

Extracting consistent stories from the Extracting consistent stories from the judgments of experts – Cross Impact judgments of experts – Cross Impact Method is applicable.Method is applicable.

Structure Analysis for the Narrative Scenario Generation

Energy-economy

model

Incomeincrease

Lowerpopula-

tion

Economicgrowth

Industrialdematerializa

- tion

Accele-ratingR&D

Agingsociety

Economicglobalization

Civiliza- tion

IT drivensocietyUnequal

incomegrowth

Unstablesocial

conditions

Energy forIndustry

Energy fortransportation

Energy forpublic and

others

Elec. For Ind.

Elec. Powerfor trans.

Elec. Power forPub.

Acceptanceof nuclear

Nationalsecurity

Worldeconomi

cgrowth

Unequalinternationaleconomic growthUnequal

nationaleconomicgrowth

Increasing FDI andtechnology transfer

Accidentsof Nuclearstations

NPT

Concumptiondematerializa-

tion Ener

gyte

chno

logy

mod

el

Revolvingtraditionalsociety

Trendchange

Descriptivefactors

Inputs fromeconomicmodels

Cost acceptanceof environmentconservation

options

Exogenousfactors

Inputs for warmingimpacts

Waterconsump-

tion

Cropconsump-

tion

Meatconsump-

tion

Paperconsump-

tion

Healthimpacts

Scenariokeywords

Monopolyof fossil

fuels

EnhancingEmploymentof women

Education

Riskpremium of

nuclearpower plants

Inflation offossil fuel

prices

Applying Cross-Impact methodApplying Cross-Impact method

Extract the key factorsExtract the key factorsCross Impact (X-I) method deals with 8-10 factors at one Cross Impact (X-I) method deals with 8-10 factors at one stage.stage.

Define four regions Define four regions including worldincluding worldTo reflect the regional conditionsTo reflect the regional conditions(O)OECD (A)Asia (L)ALM (R)ROW (W)World(O)OECD (A)Asia (L)ALM (R)ROW (W)World

SRES A1-B2 assumptionsSRES A1-B2 assumptionsSet the key driving forces according to the SRES Set the key driving forces according to the SRES storylines.storylines.

Events Event Contents of the event

1 Unification of world market

World economy is covered by the unified global large market.

2 self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources

For the sake of risk-hedging of primary energy supply, regions prefer self-sufficient and diversified energy sources.

3 Expansion of nuclear power stations

Nuclear power stations are socially accepted and increase.

4 Social acceptance of environmental costs

The environmental additional costs (e.g. relatively expensive renewable sources and recycling costs) are socially accepted.

5 Difficulty in long term investments

Long-term investments for more than 30 years become difficult.

6 Penetration of internet Internet become familiar and most people use it.

7 Penetration of environmental education

Education on the global environmental issues diffuses over the world.

8 Valuing traditions People value the traditional cultures and customs rather than to accept foreign ones.

Extracted key events of the global warming factors

O2

O3

O4

O5

O6

O7

O8

R2

R3R4

R5

R6

R7

R8

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

A7

A8

L2

L3

L4

L5

L6

L7

L8

W1

Case A1

(0.80)

(0.93)

(0.87)

(1.00)

(0.80)

(0.90)

(0.80)

(0.33)(0.33)

(0.30)

(0.33)

(0.77)

(0.77)(0.70)

(0.70)

(0.63)

(0.50)(0.57)

(0.67)

(0.53)

(0.50)

(0.33)

(0.60)

(0.43)

(0.37)

(0.53)

(0.63)

(0.63)

(0.63)

Other relatedevents

Core events

Background events

Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption)

Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption)

(1.00) O6

(0.93) A6

(1.00) R6

(1.00) L6

(1.00) W1 O8 R8 A8 L8

G1

G2 (0.25 ≒ 0.76)1/5

O5 R5 A5 L5

O3 R3 A3 L3

O2 R2 A2 L2

O5 R5 A5 L5

O3 R3 A3 L3

O2 R2 A2 L2

G3 (0.16 ≒ 0.80) G3 (0.14 ≒ 0.78)1/81/8

O4 R4 A4 L4

O7 R7 A7 L7

G4 (0.23 ≒ 0.83) G4 (0.23 ≒ 0.83)1/81/8

G5 (0.33 ≒ 0.87)1/8

A1

OR

Preconditionedoccurences

Occurrence probabilities and scenarios; Results of X-I method on SRES-A1 assumptions

global unifiedmarket

Penetration of internet

Increasing difficulties inLTI

Unification ofculture and

society

Negative acceptance onnuclear power

Education forenviromnentalconservation

Social acceptance ofenvironmental costs

Slower progress inindependent supply anddiversification of primary

energy sources

All regions

LTI: Long term investments(more than 30 years)

Implication structure on SRES-A1 assumptions

Development of scenarios (tentative)Development of scenarios (tentative)A1 assumptionsA1 assumptions

In the A1 case with high per-capita income and low In the A1 case with high per-capita income and low population growth, internet diffuses in all regions and the population growth, internet diffuses in all regions and the global unified market appears. Regional culture tends to global unified market appears. Regional culture tends to converge. converge.

The long term investments for more than 30 years The long term investments for more than 30 years become difficult and thus nuclear power stations do not become difficult and thus nuclear power stations do not increase. increase.

The self-sufficient supply and the diversification of The self-sufficient supply and the diversification of primary energy sources do not progress so rapid.primary energy sources do not progress so rapid.

Thanks to the diffusion of internet and high income, Thanks to the diffusion of internet and high income, environmental education become familiar and environmental education become familiar and environmental costs are socially accepted well.environmental costs are socially accepted well.

People enjoy the high level consumption.People enjoy the high level consumption.

Development of scenarios (tentative)Development of scenarios (tentative)A2 assumptionsA2 assumptions

A2 case with high population growth and lower income A2 case with high population growth and lower income suggests the relatively conservative world.suggests the relatively conservative world.

Two possibilities: Two possibilities: (1) The traditional culture and customs dominate the (1) The traditional culture and customs dominate the society.society.(2) Globalization progresses like A1.(2) Globalization progresses like A1.

In case (1), regional block economy will appear. Long term In case (1), regional block economy will appear. Long term investments become difficult and thus nuclear power may investments become difficult and thus nuclear power may not increase.not increase.

In the latter case, where the global unified market appears, In the latter case, where the global unified market appears, nuclear power stations are socially accepted as well as the nuclear power stations are socially accepted as well as the long term investment.long term investment.

Diversification of primary energy sources will progress.Diversification of primary energy sources will progress. Internet which promotes environmental education and Internet which promotes environmental education and

environmental cost acceptance diffuses in both cases.environmental cost acceptance diffuses in both cases.

Development of scenarios (tentative)Development of scenarios (tentative)B1 assumptionsB1 assumptions

Internet diffuses in all regions and global unified market is foundeInternet diffuses in all regions and global unified market is founded like A1 case.d like A1 case.

Environmental education, utilization of renewables and material reEnvironmental education, utilization of renewables and material recycling, and the acceptance of environmental costs are well recogcycling, and the acceptance of environmental costs are well recognized.nized.

The regional traditions and cultures are regarded more important tThe regional traditions and cultures are regarded more important than A1 case due to the environmental education.han A1 case due to the environmental education.

Globalization of economy and localization of culture appear simultGlobalization of economy and localization of culture appear simultaneously.aneously.

The latter promotes the self-sufficient supply and the diversificatioThe latter promotes the self-sufficient supply and the diversification of primary energy sources especially in REF and Asia.n of primary energy sources especially in REF and Asia.

Nuclear power will be also accepted in these regions.Nuclear power will be also accepted in these regions. Long term investments will have few difficulties in OECD, REF anLong term investments will have few difficulties in OECD, REF an

d Asia. d Asia.

Development of scenarios (tentative)Development of scenarios (tentative)B2 assumptionsB2 assumptions

Regional cultures tend to converge like A1 case.Regional cultures tend to converge like A1 case. Global unified economy also appears.Global unified economy also appears. Environmental education becomes common and the interEnvironmental education becomes common and the inter

net diffuses.net diffuses. Renewables are also well utilized as the environmental coRenewables are also well utilized as the environmental co

sts are widely recognized.sts are widely recognized. Nuclear power will not increase so much although the socNuclear power will not increase so much although the soc

iety accepts the long term investments.iety accepts the long term investments. Tendency towards the self sufficient supply and the diversTendency towards the self sufficient supply and the divers

ification of primary energy sources will not progress so mification of primary energy sources will not progress so much.uch.

Assessments of global warming impacts

1.Phoenix Project does not have global environment monitoring facilities.

2. Phoenix is compiling data and statistics on the impacts and aims to extract the key information according to the suggestions of the experts.

3. Cooperation with other institutes is mostly essential.

3. GIS plays a key role.

Possible impacts of Sea-level rise on Rice production area in Bangladesh (100cm sea level rise case)

(a) NPP in 2000 (b) NPP in 2050

Comparison of Net Primary Production in South Asia Region

Estimation based on ECHAM4

2000 2050 NPP年と 年の 比較

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

NPP合計 NPP平均 NPP合計 NPP平均 NPP合計 NPP平均 NPP合計 NPP平均

India Bangladesh VietNam Thailand

45cm上昇100cm上昇

Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050 with Sea Level Rise

NPP NPPtotal average

NPP NPPtotal average

NPP NPPtotal average

NPP NPPtotal average

Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050

Potential Rice Production Change due to High Temperature Damage in 2050

2050年コメ生産高への高温障害の影響

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%

NPP合

計

NPP平

均

NPP合

計

NPP平

均

NPP合計

NPP平

均

NPP合

計NPP平

均

インド バングラデシュ タイ ベトナム

45cm上昇100cm上昇

India Bangladesh Thailand Vietnam

Total Ave-rage

Total Total TotalAve-rage

Ave-rage

Ave-rage

Integration of Assessment Modules

Integrated assessment incorporates:

-Uncertainties on climate change, global and regional warming impacts, social and economic context, technological development, etc.

- Long term views, Middle term strategies and Short term actions

- Scientific knowledge and decision making process

Expected outcomes

• The changes of the energy supply-demand systems, industry structure changes and the international industry allocation scenarios will provide the basic information to assess the policy measures.

• The outcomes of the project will give the helpful information on the energy technology development strategies.

• The most preferable burden sharing scenario on the carbon emission reduction can be generated.

• Industry policies on the R&D on the energy and environmental technologies, technology transfer, and other industry strategies can be assessed under the global warming mitigation policies.