Iraq in Turmoil

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Iraq: A country in Turmoil

The elimination of ISIS and implementation of a new government model

Outline

History of Iraq

Islam History

Demographics of Iraq

Iraq's Current Gov't

SWOT Analysis

Arab Spring

ISIS Crisis

BRICS solution

History of Iraq

Territory considered birthplace of civilization

1918: Ottoman Empire falls

1920: British Protectorate forms Iraq

1921: Monarchy established

1922: Iraq gains Independence

1958: Monarchy overthrown, Republic of Iraq forms

1968: Ba'ath party comes to power (Hussein gains influence)

1979: Hussein becomes president officially

2003: Saddam Hussein thrown out of power

2007: US surge pushes out insurgents and militias from cities

2008: Government of Iraq assumed full sovereignty with some foreign troops staying with agreement of the government

Iraq's Three Kings

Faisal I, Ghazi I, Faisal II

Saddam Hussein and some of his crimes

Fall of Saddam Hussein

Presidencies following Hussein

Ghazi Masha Aji al-Yawer, Jalal Talabani, Fuad Masum

Current

Recent Prime Ministers of Iraq

Nouri al-Maliki (2006-14), Haider al-Abadi (current)

History of Islam in Iraq

Iraq is conquered and becomes part of the Islamic caliphate between 632-661

ISIS wants a return to a purist Islamic Caliphate, even more powerful than the last.

Demographics of Iraq

99% Muslim. Shia majority of ~65% to ~37% Sunni (exempting recent ISIS interference)

80% Arab, 15% Kurd, 5% other (mostly Turkoman & Assyrian.

Languages: Arabic, Kurdish, Turkmen, and Assyrian in majority populations.

Borders: Iran,Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and 36 miles of the Gulf

Capital: Baghdad

Population of approximately 32 million.

18 provinces, 3 under Kurdish Regional Government

Iraq's Government: A federal constitutional democracy

Head of State: President (elected)

Head of Government: Prime Minister drawn from the elected Council of Representatives (325)7 seats reserved for Iraqis living outside of the country

8 seats reserved for Iraqi minorities.

4 year terms

S W O T

Strengths: Oil, Natural gas, and Sulfur resources. High literacy rate

Weaknesses: Racial and religious conflicts. Weak government. Weaker economy

Opportunities: (Domestic) Unify racial and religious sects with elimination of ISIS. Unite country under a balanced government with strong foreign policy and a military. (Internationally) Continue and increase trade with West and ME.

Threats: ISIS is and will continue to take advantage of Iraq's Weaknesses. Is taking some Strengths (oil reserves).

Arab Spring's influence on Iraq

Tunisia 2011 is known as the start of the Arab Spring

Debate if Iraq was the real start of Arab SpringKanan Makiya of nytimes.com 4/6/13Overthrow of Saddam Hussein 03' was met with cheers

Iraq was ready for a new government

Protests erupted after 03' across the middle eastMarch in Lebanon in '05.

Another argument is Iraq felt the echo effects of Arab Spring2013 protest in Fallujah

ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

ISIS name is temporary. ISIS/ISIL group wants to expand and return to the Islamic Caliphate that covered all of the M.E.Capture of Iraqi cities puts border countries in greater threat and gives Iraq access to the Persian Gulf

200 Iraqi Sunni Tribesmen have been executed as of 11/3/14600 ISIS prisoners have been executed 10/30/14

Purist Islamic ideology is strict and has caused violence between Muslims to increase

Take over oil fields as source of incomeSaudi's threatened. Other states threatened.

All of Iraq's supply is deeply threatened.

ISIS Origins

Became an insurgency out of Saddam Hussein's fall out of power

Stronghold of Al-Qaeda

Gained momentum and support in Syria war.

Currently has support, financially and voluntarily by individuals across the world.

Is also gaining from oil sells

ISIS territory

Sunni residents in the Anbar Providence became radicalized and ISIS invasions began

ISIS has captured the Anbar Province and portions of North and Central Iraq

Radicalized Sunnis are appearing in multiple regions in the Midde East, Europe, and even the US.

Oil Reserves in Iraq

August 2014

Iraqi Army

Shia soldiers present

Ways of Eliminating ISIS

Elimination of ISIS through UNGives Iraq more legitimacy as state to fight for sovereignty

Funding and support of multiple UN states

Coalition surge

Elimination of ISIS through BRICS statusStrengthened relations between Russia, China and Iraq via trade in oil

Soldiers may be used to protect oil refineries and retake captured ones.

Maintain Iraq/US relations without allowing US control in state affairsWar fatigue discourages our involvementCollapse of Iraqi cities have discouraged us.

Will the president's foreign policy methods allow this?

ISIS Elimination

Coalition ties should not be severed

Keep and support coalition states in METhrough trade

Military training

Take on a China/Brics Model to shift the country to a more controlled economy. Increase manufacturing

Maintain order

Train students in manufacturing. Shift from religious focus in schools.

Introduction of BRICS model in Iraq

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.Bolded: have been considered a threat to the USEconomically and Ideologically

Russian Imperial Attitudes and Iraq

China annexation of cities. Spread in Africa

Anti-west sentiment is an unofficial part of BRICS modelNew plan for Iraq that falls into Sharia model

Common enemy in the West allows tolerance of other Muslims

New trade methods may bring Iraq out of developing nation statusFast Growing Economies: Brazil, India, South Africa

About BRICS model

Allows more authoritarian, sovereign government rule

State Capitalism: Nationalizes big business/largest export ex) Gazprom

Limits importation from within BRICS nation.

Detrimental to US trade relations. US imports, but cannot export to these countriesIraq needs to lose its reliance on the US.

Why a BRICS model for Iraq?

Iraq has tried many systems that have all failed.

IdeologyAnti-West sentiment is still largely present

Authoritative law and models are preferred under shariaSharia law is in demand because of Sunni majority

Sunni should rule the majority. Shia rule causes tension and weakness.

Iraq is lacking resources to stand alone and will need assistance in the future to continue oil trade

EconomyIraq has potential to become a great manufacturing power.

Iraq's State Capitalism

Authoritative government under BRICS could keep Iraq a democracy if developed properly.

New government should be set up with more Sunni seats to balance out a tense religious environment. Protection of minorities are a must.

State funds should help support the economy and manufacturing plants in Iraq

Iraq Oil Trade

Works Cited

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-shia-are-in-power-in-iraq--but-not-in-control-8523280.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/death-toll-from-isis-public-executions-of-iraqi-sunni-tribesmen-passes-200/

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-its-like-living-under-isis-rule-in-fallujah-iraq-2014-11

http://energyinasiablog.com/2014/08/isis-impact-on-iraqs-oil-industry/

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/women-children-36-sunni-tribesman-killed-isis-iraqi-officials-article-1.1997340

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/opinion/sunday/the-arab-spring-started-in-iraq.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html

http://www.bitsofnews.com/content/view/4037/42/

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