Estimating the Number of Homeless Sleeping Rough: A Study in 4 Dutch Cities

EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE

Housing First. What’s Second?

Berlin, 20th September 2013

Estimating the number of

homeless sleeping rough, a study

of 4 cities in the Netherlands

Marcel Buster, Public Health Service Amsterdam, The Netherlands

In cooperation with: Eva Mandos & Staf van Zeele, Rotterdam-Rijnmond,

Renske Gilisen, Den Haag

Regien Vleems & Addi van Bergen, Utrecht,

Matty de Wit, Natalie Runtuwene, & Mariette Hensen-Baas, Amsterdam

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Public Health Services of 4 cities

Amsterdam

Utrecht

Rotterdam

Den Hague




Context: Similar policy on homelessness

Prevention of homelessness..

Offering integrated care to the homeless who:

belong to the public mental health care population

are citizens of the city’s region.

Encouraging re-migration of homeless from other cities,

other countries…




Aims..of the study

Describing size and characteristics of the homeless

population.

Estimating the number of people that are sleeping rough.




Context: The number of homeless that are sleeping rough

is difficult to estimate because:

hidden population Risk of getting a fine, safety.

dynamic population: Starting, ending episodes of homelessness

Within an episodes of homelessness: changing type of location…

Migration

longer period of observation higher number of homeless…




During periods of frost in wintertime….

Shelters are free of charge and accessible for all

homeless.

Homeless ‘sleeping rough’ are actively motivated to use

a shelter.

Shelter capacity is adapted to demand.

Research opportunity!




Winter 2010/’11 and 2011/’12




Methods

Registers of night-shelters (both the regular shelters and

of the surplus of beds during the frost period)

Interviews with homeless in shelters during 1 or 2

evenings at start of the (first) period of frost.




Number of people using the night shelters

during a two months period in winter

393

510

688

1163

345

450500

937

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Utrecht Den Hague Rotterdam Amsterdam

cu

mu

lati

ve n

um

ber

of

peo

ple

(tw

o m

on

th p

eri

od

)

Winter 2010/2011 (dec, jan) Winter 2011/2012 (jan, feb)

2010/11: 2754

2011/12: 2232




Average daily number of people admitted during

period of frost

141188

260

413

142196

248

405

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Utrecht Den Haag Rotterdam Amsterdam

av

era

ge

nu

mb

er

of

pe

op

le p

er

da

y,

du

rin

g f

ros

t p

eri

od

2010/2011 2011/2012

Total number

2010/11: 1001

2011/12: 991

Total interview-

sample

2010/11: 629

2011/12: 567




Estimation based on the ratio

# Sleeping Rough / # Shelter for Homeless




Formula to estimate the number of people

Sleeping rough

? = Estimated

(Sample)

city total

(registered)

city total




How long ago did you “sleep rough”?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Utre

cht

Den

Haa

g

Rotte

rdam

Am

ster

dam

TOTA

AL 201

0/20

11

TOTA

AL 201

1/20

12

Never

≥ 1 year ago

≥ 1 month, < 1 year

previous 30 days




Where did you spend the last 30 nights?

Differences between cities:

10%17% 14%

27%

71%47%

56% 28%

10%

18%14%

14%

9%19% 15%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Sleeping rough Night-shelter Family, friends other




Where did you spend the previous 30 nights?

Differences between years:

21% 19%

45%45%

11% 14%

23% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010/11 2011/12

Sleeping rough Night-shelter Family friends Other




within 4 cities 2011/12

0,96

0,250,14

0,36

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

Utrecht Den Haag Rotterdam Amsterdam




Results: Absolute numbers

101 105

175157

1540

45

150

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


nu

mb

er

Total daily average: 538 night shelter beds vs. estimated 250 sleeping rough




Results per 100,000 population ( > 15 yrs)

39,1

25,8

34,4

23,9

31,7 29,4

5,8

9,8

8,8

22,9

15,8

13,7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Utre

cht

Den

Hag

ue

Rot

terd

am

Amsterd

am

All 2010

/201

1

All 2011

/201

2

nu

mb

er

/ 1

00

,00

0

# slots nightshelter Sleeping rough




Are the homeless who are sleeping rough,

part of the registered citizens of the city?

12%

36% 34%25%

32%27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Utrecht Den Hague Rotterdam Amsterdam Total

2010/2011

Total

2011/12

Yes No, migrants (national or international)




Conclusion / limitations

Simple indicator of the number of homeless sleeping rough for comparison of urban areas.

Limitation: estimated number on an ‘average’ night.

Does the ratio of the nights spend in shelter / sleeping rough, reflects the true ratio….???

Both shelter + sleeping rough ≈ 43 /100,000 population

Sleeping rough varies ≈ 6 – 23 / 100,000 population

Only a minority of those ‘sleeping rough’ is considered as citizen of the city’s region.

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Estimating the Number of Homeless Sleeping Rough: A Study in 4 Dutch Cities