SXSW 2017: How Do You Keep Your Company Human in 2030

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How Do You Keep Your Company Human in 2030?@helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

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@helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

Answer: Hire people.

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

AI Machine Learning Robotics Automation Market forces Competitive advantage Costs Big data superpower Capital efficiencies Knowledge/team to implement Labor augmentation Legal/regulation implications Production/ operation efficiencies

Not that Easy

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/anrep_e/wtr08-2b_e.pdf

The first episode began around the mid-19th century and ended with the commencement of World War I (WWI). The second episode began in the aftermath of World War II (WWII) and continues today. In both these episodes of globalization, rapid trade and output growth went together with major shifts in the relative size of the economies involved. One valuable lesson from history is that globalization has not been a smooth process. It has often been marked by periods of accelerated integration (as observed in the 19th century and in the second half of the 20th century) and by periods of dramatic reversals (as in the inter-war period) sometimes with costly consequences.

This is a great resource: https://www.accenture.com/t20170206T005353__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF-33/Accenture-Why-AI-is-the-Future-of-Growth.PDF#zoom=503

Helen ToddSociality Squared

@helenstravels@Sociality2Shane MacAssist

@shanemac @assist

Michael FriedlAdvantage Austria

@mfriedl_nyc (tw)@Austria_in_USJoshua MarchConversocial

@joshuamarch@Conversoical

#madebyhumans #sxsw

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

Visit:http://sli.do Enter:#madebyhumans

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

Poll QuestionsWho is afraid of losing their livelihood to machines?

No: Im 100% confident my job is safeNot really: It most likely wont impact meNo OpinionKind of: It will likely impact me, but not substantiallyYes: Im terrified that my job is replaceable by machines

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

How many jobs are predicted to vbe

Alts:How human will your company will be in 2030?Are you ready for the new economy thats coming?Will you part of your company in 2030?

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Poll QuestionsWhat percentage of the current jobs in your company will be replaced by machines?

5%25%50%75%95%

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

How many jobs are predicted to vbe

Alts:How human will your company will be in 2030?Are you ready for the new economy thats coming?Will you part of your company in 2030?

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Economists forecast the likelihood of wage earners who will lose their jobs to automation are:

4%$40 per hour or more31%Up to $40 per hour 83% $20 per hour or less

Economic Report of the President, Feb 2016

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

https://www.accenture.com/us-en/artificial-intelligence-index?gclid=COqygu7LwNICFcWFswodVQIKWA&c=tek_usaify17psgs&n=AI_-_US&s_kwcid=AL!5115!3!171095032440!p!!g!!ai&ef_id=VrKSKgAABCu-TiQ1:20170306001147:s

Other quoteOur [Accenture] research shows that by 2035, AI could double annual growth rates in 12 developed countries by changing the nature of work and creating a new relationship between man and machine8

AssumptionsWere on the precipice of the most disruptive and transformative change in technological progress weve ever experienced before.

Its coming despite populism shifts and whether or not you are prepared for it.

Everyone in this audience will be impacted by it.

AI, automation, and robotics will replace jobs.

AI, automation, and robotics will create new job opportunities.

Some humans dont do well with change.

Not all of us are doing meaningful work now.

Humans are valuable.

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

If you look at ATMs - replaced bank tellers HOWEVER created more jobs9

2004service economy2017knowledge economy2030??? economy

#madebyhumans #sxsw

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

Address:Where we areWhats coming were discussing a revolution thats COMINGWhat are you going to do?

Sources:https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2014/12/tech-from-10-years-ago-blogging-bluetooth-and-the.html

http://www2.technologyreview.com/news/402435/10-emerging-technologies-that-will-change-your/ Universal TranslationSynthetic BiologyNanowiresT-RaysDistributed StorageRNAi InterferencePower Grid ControlMicrofluidic Optical FibersBayesiam Machine LearningPersonal Genomics

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/ces-2017-the-hottest-new-gadgets-from-the-worlds-biggest-tech-show/articleshow/56431759.cms

2004iPod (pre-iPhone)MySpace Most PopularFacebook Launched2005 Internet passed 1B UsersTwitter, YouTube, Google Maps didnt existBroadband was being more widely adoptedMotorola RAZR V3Bluetooth: Future of wirelessDVR was disrupting TVSkype introducedSatellite radioBlogging became a wordConvergence big ideaNanowires is breakthrough techBayesian Machine LearningDistributed Storage (e.g. KaZaA music sharing)

2017Internet UsersMobile Phone users:FacebookBlockchain growingSelf-driving carsWearablesIoTA LAPTOP POWERED BY A SMARTPHONECommerical Space IndustryCrytocurrencies bitcoin more valuable than goldLynx, the world's first videoenabled humanoid robot powered by Amazon's AlexaDeep learning

2030Type of economy: we dont know: data, concept, not sure? (survival economy)

RobotsAICommercial Space IndustryGenetic CodeData Raw MaterialGlobal neural networkShifts in economies: non-monetary; not represented in GDP; global currencies

Predictions by Kurzweils (https://singularityhub.com/2015/01/26/ray-kurzweils-mind-boggling-predictions-for-the-next-25-years/):By the late 2010s, glasses will beam images directly onto the retina. Tenterabytes of computing power (roughly the same as the human brain) will cost about $1,000.- By the 2020s, most diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human eating can be replaced by nanosystems. The Turing test begins to be passable. Self-driving cars begin to take over the roads, and people wont be allowed to drive on highways.By the 2030s, virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real. We will be able to upload our mind/consciousness by the end of the decade.

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Rate of Acceleration

@helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

1) When it comes to history, we think in straight lines.When we imagine the progress of the next 30 years, we look back to the progress of the previous 30 as an indicator of how much will likely happen. When we think about the extent to which the world will change in the 21st century, we just take the 20th century progress and add it to the year 2000. This was the same mistake our 1750 guy made when he got someone from 1500 and expected to blow his mind as much as his own was blown going the same distance ahead.

Its most intuitive for us to thinklinearly,when we should be thinkingexponentially.

If someone is being more clever about it, they might predict the advances of the next 30 years not by looking at the previous 30 years, but by taking thecurrentrate of progress and judging based on that. Theyd be more accurate, but still way off. In order to think about the future correctly, you need to imagine things moving at amuch faster ratethan theyre moving now.

Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI (AI thats at least as intellectually capable as a human, across the board)Kurzweil believes computers will reach AGI by 2029 and that by 2045, well have not only ASI, but a full-blown new worlda time he calls the singularity. His AI-related timeline used to be seen as outrageously overzealous, and it still is by many,6but in the last 15 years, the rapid advances of ANI systems have brought the larger world of AI experts much closer to Kurzweils timeline. His predictions are still a bit more ambitious than the median respondent on Mller and Bostroms survey (AGI by 2040, ASI by 2060), but not by that much.Kurzweils depiction of the 2045 singularity is brought about by three simultaneous revolutions in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and, most powerfully, AI.

Armed with superintelligence and all the technology superintelligence would know how to create, ASI would likely be able to solve every problem in humanity. Global warming? ASI could first halt CO2emissions by coming up with much better ways to generate energy that had nothing to do with fossil fuels.11

@helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

The GoalMeaningful Work?

@helenstravels@shanemac @mfriedl_nyc@joshuamarch#madebyhumans #sxsw

1930 Joshs 15 hours John something kings

Shane: Value being part of something more value (hidden figures); work is a new notion puritan

Shareholders go beyond the beyond the bottom line.

How do we (as biz owners) do create meaningful work? We still have to emp