Key Digital Trends for 2017

Key Digital Trends for 2017 By Marshall Manson & James Whatley

@MarshallManson / @Whatleydude

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Introduction

For the past few years, two of Ogilvy’s digital and innovation leaders, Marshall Manson and James Whatley, have collaborated on a yearly trend report outlining both where they believe the digital and social landscape is headed and what brands and agency partners should do about it.!

As is tradition, this document — the fourth annual edition — is made up of two parts: !

First a review and grading of their 2016 predictions, and second, a look ahead to what the future holds in 2017. !

We hope you enjoy it. !

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Part 1: 2016 Predictions: How did we do? Spoiler: We got some right, but not all…

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Trend 1: The Adblocker Endgame We said: Adblocker usage will continue to grow. Users will consume fewer banner ads - across mobile and desktop. Ecosystem owners will step up their fight against page bloat - maximising reach, minimising advertising disruption. !!We advised:Consider consumer intent before not only publishing content but also during the content planning phase. By applying this level of strategic rigour ahead of the work you would then be better placed to take advantage of the advanced micro-targeting options available to you via the leading platforms. !!What happened: Ablocker usage jumped 34% during 2016 (in the US alone) and ecosystems doubled down on their fast-loading articles (Facebook opened Instant Articles to all publishers and we said hello to Google Amp). Furthermore, Adblock Plus reported 100m (!!) users. !!How did we do: Banner advertising is an outdated communications tool. Adblocker usage shows no sign of falling and marketers are increasingly looking at using varying levels of sophisticated targeting to ensure that marketing messages are seen by the right eyeballs. !NAILED IT. #OgilvyTrends2017

2016 Predictions: How Did We Do?

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Trend 2: The Video Evolution We said: ‘The Video Royale mega-battle will continue’ - with more and more platforms launching their own video offering(s), the same content will soon be available everywhere. We also said ‘In 2016, the way we both consume and create content will change forever.’!!We advised:As 2016 would be the year of video innovation 1.0 (eg: VR, AR, 360 video) we advised a) not panicking and b) if you had the time/money, consider going for the early PR value - with 360 video and/or Google Cardboard experiences being the easiest and most accessible. !!What happened: Google shipped 5m cardboard viewers. YouTube viewers watched in excess of 350k hours of VR content. Huge content publishers, such as Sky TV, Netflix, and Warner Bros launched their own VR offerings. And did someone say Spectacles?!!How did we do: The video focus of the platforms where we spend most of our online time shows no sign of abating. Video is first (more on that to come later), innovation is flourishing, and consumers are onboard. !!NAILED IT. #OgilvyTrends2017


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Trend 3: Gen Z - Peak Millennial

We said: ‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and fundamentally boring way to describe a homogeneous group of around 1.7 billion people. Additionally, the next faceless cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people. !!We advised:Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard. !!What happened: We think it’s fair to say that perhaps this one didn’t go to plan. !!How did we do: Let’s take a look…!!

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We had three major trends in last year’s edition (as well as three Bonus Noodles - but we’ll get onto those).

We said: ‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and boring way to describe a homogeneous group of around1.7bn people. Furthermore, the next cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people.

We advised:Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard.

What happened:

How did we do:

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What happened:

How did we do:

TL;DR:



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What happened:

How did we do:

TL;DR:



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We said: ‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and fundamentally boring way to describe a homogeneous group of around 1.7 billion people. Additionally, the next faceless cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people. !!We advised:Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard. !

What happened: We think it’s fair to say that perhaps this one didn’t go to plan. !

How did we do:

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We said: ‘Millennial’ is a cheap, lazy, and fundamentally boring way to describe a homogeneous group of around 1.7 billion people. Additionally, the next faceless cohort are on their way - Gen Z - and they are also an all different, all non-conforming group of people. !!We advised:Ignore cohorts. Focus on consumer insights. If you get (or write) a brief saying ‘We want to speak to Millennials’, push back - hard. !

What happened: We think it’s fair to say that perhaps this one didn’t go to plan. !

How did we do: WE GOT IT SO WRONG.YOU’RE ALL OBSESSED WITH MILLENNIALS. SERIOUSLY, THIS HAS GOT TO STOP.

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On top of our three major trend predictions last year, we also included a section entitled ‘Bonus Noodles’. !!For the newcomers, Bonus Noodles are ideas and trends that we’re thinking about but are made up of limited data points, hunches, conjecture, or a combination of all three. !!This one page round-up tells us a) if we were right and b) why they’re probably just noodles in the first place. !

Noodle 3: Influencer Agencies

Noodle 2: Twitter Erosion

Noodle 1: Distributed Content We said we marketers needed to stop looking at website visits as the number one metric for content success. !!In 2016, this is still number one. However, while this hasn’t changed, marketers using true ROI metrics such as sales leads are on the increase (jumping from 5th to 3rd in the metric tables). !

We said users are down and the platform will soon be under siege from competitors encroaching on the spaces Twitter would call its heartland. !!We wanted to be wrong on this, and we’ll come back to it later in this document. !

We said influencer agencies would continue to grow and that the industry for these intermediaries would grow to be lucrative. And that’s pretty much what happened. !!!

2016 Noodles: How Did We Do?

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Part 2: 2017 Predictions Let’s just get to the good stuff

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Trend 1: The Chatbot Gold Rush “I’m sorry, I didn’t understand your request”

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Background

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Messenger App Growth / Usage

Monthly active users for top 4 social networks and messaging apps

Source: Companies. Business Insider.

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

0M

illion

s1Q20154Q20132Q2012

Top 4 messaging apps

Top 4 social networks

This chart is from September 2015.!

Every Chatbot company, agency, and start-up worth its salt is using this. !

For good reason: it demonstrates exactly why we are where we are. !

And in July 2016, Facebook Messenger hit 1bn MAUs. !

In short: we’re spending more and more time in messaging apps. !

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‘On-demand’ Consumers Expect Brands to Follow Suit

Just like one of Willy Wonka’s least favourite guests, Veruca Salt, today’s consumers want everything right now. !!Thanks to the likes of Netflix, Uber, and Airbnb, this ‘on-demand consumer’ has grown used to on-demand products and services - and they now want on-demand CUSTOMER SERVICE. !!Did we mention they wanted it right now?!!And while Twitter is slowly becoming a platform for current events and/or news - customer service is still a key component to its platform. !!However, against the backdrop of an upswing in message app penetration, it’s clear to spot the next big frontier for troubleshooting consumer issues - and it’s already installed on your phone. !

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And Message Platforms Are Stepping Up

Between platform launches, APIs, beta tracks, and bot stores - nearly every messenger platform today has (or has plans to launch) a chatbot solution. !

Facebook launched its API in April 2016. In the same month, Kik, (live with basic chatbots since 2014), launched its own bot store.!

Telegram soon followed and, by the end of the year, Twitter had launched its own bot-proposition, delivered via Direct Message. !

The one glaring omission is WhatsApp, !but we’re certain that’ll soon change… !

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Defining the Chatbot Gold Rush

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The Numbers Are Crazy

33,000The number of chatbots on Facebook Messenger !(as of Sept 2016)!

1bnMonthly Active Users on Facebook Messenger!

1bnMonthly Active Users on WhatsApp!

80% !The percentage of marketing leaders* who said they were planning on chatbot and/or AI solutions by 2020 (that’s only three years away!)!

!*800 marketing / CSOs / sales execs across Netherlands,France, UK, South Africa in manufacturing/hi-tech, online retail, telcos

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And Consumer App Downloads Are Too…

But in the wrong way. !

It is a fact that people simply don’t install apps anymore. And even when users do install an app, 95% move onto other things within 90 days.

However, with users in their billions, messaging platforms are the number one app for consumers all across the globe.!

One-to-one messaging, at scale, is impossible. !

Which is where and why the Chatbot opportunity has come from. !

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How Do You Prepare for This?

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Think: Where Could Chatbots Help You Today?

SALES & SERVICES

SUBJECT EXPERTISE

CARE &SUPPORT

CONTENTSUBSCRIPTIONS

EXPERIENCES / UTILITIES

Depending on your platform of choice, there are possibly up to five key areas that chat bots !could help your business: !

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Play: Markets In Everything

Bot building platforms are appearing with varying levels of coding required !to use them, each with their own methods, platform support, and, more often than not, bot-store.!

Many of these tools are free and / or cheap to use - and can help you get to grips with what is and is not possible quickly and easily.!

Once you have an initial understanding, then it might be time to call in some help.!

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Do: Get Inspired By Our Friends In The East Facebook Messenger is at least three years behind message platforms in the East.!!More than 500 million people sent money through these message platforms during the 2016 Chinese New Year period. !!The West is catching up but bots have been around on WeChat for example (700 million monthly active users), since 2013.!!If you’re looking for inspiration, look to China (look up ‘Xiao Ice’ for one - there are many others). !

Facebook MessengerPlatform 2016

via +RehabStudio !

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But Remember

1.  Like the app gold rush before it, there will be dross, there will be wallpaper, and there will be snake oil.!

2.  If you’re thinking ‘I need a bot’, you’re doing it wrong. Think about a business problem first, consider where your consumers are today, then see if a chatbot could be the right solution. !

3.  (Most) Chatbots are for life, not just for Christmas. There are rich data opportunities with a good chatbot execution. Don’t squander the chance to learn more about your consumer than ever before. !

4.  If you build it, they won’t just come; think about how you’ll scale. From Facebook ad units to ATL, !how will you let people know about your bot? !

5.  Your agencies should be all over this (if they’re not, come talk to us - ahem) so if you’re unsure, ask.!

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Trend 2: The Abdication Of Ethical Decision Making ‘What happens when we hand over our choices to robots and algorithms?’ or ‘Did you think we were here to have fun?’

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Background

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Automation Surging

Facebook Messenger Bots are driving a consumer-facing uptick. There are tens of thousands of bots now in the wild. !

And many more are on the way. Yet. the most significant moves are arguably hidden from view.!

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Algorithms Choose Our

2016 elections in the UK and USA highlighted the unforeseen problem of algorithmic content serving.!

Users experience strong confirmation bias when machines serve new content based on previous preference.!

And make themselves ripe for exploitation by opportunists and extremists.!

(Fake) News

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Driverless Cars: Arriving Soon

Google (aka Alphabet - now via Waymo), Apple, Tesla, Ford, and other traditional car makers are all developing their own driverless solution.!

The first generation is due on the road by 2020. And the second gen — the real breakthrough — is due 2023.!

Driverless deliveries are already happening. Budweiser and Otto delivered 50,000 bottles nearly 200kms in October 2016. !

Already Here

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And Driverless Food…

Samsung’s new fridge can display its contents on your phone thanks to its internal camera, so you can check whether you’re out of Dijon mustard. (Do we finally get to learn when the light goes out?)!

And soon, it will simply reorder items automatically when you run out. !

It also plays movies, provides the weather forecast, and looks after the family to do list.!

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…and Driverless Homes…

Amazon’s Smart Home store provides gadgets that automate heating and cooling, keeping track of your pets, and locking your doors.!

All manageable from your phone… or not. The machines can just manage it for you..!

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…and Driverless Jobs

It’s not just the dirty, dull and dangerous that will go.!

Amazon’s new Go concept and McDonald’s automated ordering is just the start.!

CNBC suggests that pharmacists, lawyers, and journalists may be the next to find their jobs automated.!

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We can teach them our preferences through machine learning, like the MIT Moral Machine for driverless cars. But this amounts to majority rule.!

Or we can appoint a body of experts to apply the best ethical philosophies, but this is essentially oligarchy.!

Or we can embrace a combination: Human choices vetted by a panel of experts.!

And many others, each with their own flaws.!

So How Do Machines Choose For Us?

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Once We Give Up Control,

Others make initial choices for us. What if we disagree?!

Once programmed, machines will learn and evolve too. Taking individuals further from the decisions.!

And then there’s government. The potential for interference in our lives grows as control becomes easier and more efficient. Local governments to control brown outs by turning off everyone’s aircon? Nutrition authorities to ensure we’re all eating enough salad by tracking the content of our fridge — and our garbage?!

IoT devices are notoriously easy to hack. What happens when automated choices become destructive?!

And it’s harder to hold individuals accountable for transgressions when the source of bad behaviour is easier to disguise and many more steps removed from the scene.!

It Never Comes Back

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Some Sectors May Already

U.S. FAA concerned that pilots’ manual flight skills are being dulled by automation.!

They believe the over-reliance has contributed to at least two fatal crashes.!

Decision-making handed over to machines in a way that’s difficult to recover.!

Be Over-Reliant

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Defining The Abdication of Ethical Decision Making

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Defining The Abdication Of Ethical Decision Making

As automation, robotics and, eventually, AI play more and more active roles in our lives, the role of human !decision-making will inevitably decline.!

Handing over control doesn’t just mean handing over the mechanical activities of daily life. It means handing over choices — some big, some tiny — about what’s right and wrong. !

Ethics are full of nuance. Binary decision-making leads to polarisation. (See, e.g., Brexit vote.) But it’s hard for automation to do nuance well. AI may change this, but we’re not there yet. !

So how do we embrace automation while still protecting the ethical frameworks that make and keep us human? !How can we better define the attributes that hold society together, when there is so much dividing us at the moment?!

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What The Hell Does This Have To Do With Marketing?

Everything. !

!

Choice architectures will change rapidly as less decision-making is required.!

Ethical standards will rapidly evolve — and brands will need to be ready. Be prepared to be caught — frequently — between traditionalists and tech progressives.!

Increased polarisation makes it harder for brands to have mass appeal. But multiple narratives to multiple audiences makes it hard to stay true to a single set of values.!

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How Do You Prepare for This?

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Businesses (especially manufacturers) need to define the basic principles of human ethics that must sit at the core of any bot, fridge or car they create. In the rush to market, we can’t overlook the importance of the choices that we’ll be asking others to abdicate.!

Consider how to solicit and consider input into those choices. And develop a defensible process for making them. Then, be ready to be transparent about rationale, even if you’re not prepared to be proactive (and consider being proactive).!

Consider Ethics Carefully In Product And Tool Development

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Brands need to be prepared to live these ethics through their own comms and products, and to defend them as part of their brand values.!

Define principles, values and standards now, and be prepared to live with them for the long term.!

Be transparent about the origins and rationale behind values and ethics. Over explain. Repeat as often as necessary.!

Prepare for potential ethical issues that might arise in the future.!

Global companies and brands have the hardest choices to make, as ethical norms vary from one culture to another. But in the future, it may be more important to be true to yourself and explain why, then to give in to local custom. In a world with no cultural walls, brands must assume that everything is everywhere.!

And make friends with some ethics and philosophy experts. You’re going to need them. (2020 trend prediction: Corporate demand for philosophy graduates reaches highest level since Aristotle.)!

Define Your Own Ethics Before They’re Defined for You

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Pivot Towards B2H

Comms approaches are traditionally defined by B2B or B2C. But human considerations outweigh all else. You need to connect with them on a human level. An ethics is at the core of what it means to be human. So you have to live them — put them front and centre.!

Which means your human voice has to be front and centre too. !

Develop a narrative that’s about more than just product. Communicate proactively and frequently. Build the story before questions start.!

In a fragmented media environment, traditional media voices are less relevant. You need your own voice to cut through.!

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Trend 3: A Video First World ‘You know, silent video means they can’t hear you screaming’

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Background

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Video: It’s A Thing

A quick history lesson:

2014Facebook puts video as a priority (cue: newsfeed changes and algorithm updates). Then suddenly, out of the blue that summer: a huge charitable event known as the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge just happens to go viral. !

2015 !Other platforms see the opportunity step up with their own video offerings. Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat - if you can download it, you can watch/create/share video on it. !

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Defining ‘A Video First World’

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Defining a ‘Video First World’ We see a world that is video-first with video at the heart

of all our apps and services

Mark Zuckerberg, !

Facebook Earnings Call, July 2016

Fast forward to 2016 and Zuck and co are intent on taking us to [video] hell in a hand[held] basket. !

The quote opposite, by MZ himself, is interesting by way of its structure. There are two key parts here ‘video-first’ and ‘all our apps and services.’!

Video first means video will get the priority. No matter the platform. All our apps and services means everything that Facebook owns: the Facebook platform itself, Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram, Oculus… !

All of it: video-first - because Mark Zuckerberg said so.!

Sidenote: Cisco predict that by 2019, 80% of the world’s internet traffic will be, you guessed it: video.

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Another Thing Facebook is

As part of its continuing mission to destroy all other social platforms, Facebook is going after one of the few remaining heartlands Twitter has left: LIVE content.!

The best and easiest way to do that is with it’s new LIVE product and Facebook is throwing so much money at this it is unheard of. Both from a media perspective and an innovation angle (Live 360 - launching imminently).!

A Facebook spokesperson told us they hadn’t seen ‘a company-wide pivot like this’ since it decided it wanted to be ‘mobile first’ (note: over 50% of Facebook’s ad revenue now comes from mobile). !

In short: Facebook Live is a big bet from Facebook and it’s throwing everything it has at it to make it successful. !

Set On Us All Doing…

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And let’s not forget about YouTube

After a year in the wilderness, licking its wounds and working out what the hell happened with Facebook video, YouTube is pushing back.!

Going up against the Facebook dominance, YouTube is now courting brands with its effectiveness prowess and crowing loudly about what does (and does not) constitute a ‘view.’!

And quite right too.!

One to watch - this one is barely getting started…

Disclosure: Google and YouTube are clients of Ogilvy PR in the UK.

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But just what kind of video are we talking about?

360?

Landscape?

Circular?

Square?

Portrait?

Canvas?

Augmented? Virtual?

Panoramic?

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But just what kind of video are we talking about?

360?

Landscape?

Circular?

Square?

Portrait?

Canvas?

Augmented? Virtual?

Panoramic?

We are witnessing the collapse of traditional video formats

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How do you prepare for this?

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Preparing for a ‘Video First World’ “We see a world that is video-first with video at the heart of all our apps and services”

Facebook Earnings Call, July 2016

The main consumer-facing digital platforms are shifting.!

For the content-snacking generation, video is now starter, main, and dessert. !

To not have any kind of video support and/or strategy that lives with and/or complements your existing communications would be a fool’s errand. !

It’s time to learn to love video.!

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•  Got a TVC? Get/cut/use all footage !

•  Shooting a TVC? Get someone there shooting with a smartphone.!

•  Can’t afford a TVC? Shoot something yourself!

•  Get clever/useful with video apps that can give you the creative edge that you need!

•  Publish to Facebook? Use Square Video!

•  Got a ton of cash? Do something awesome in VR!

•  Got a small amount of cash? Look into 360 video!

Preparing for a ‘Video First World’

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Trend 4: Twitter Retrench The time is now, before it’s too late.

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Background

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Short Version: !It’s Been a Rough Year!

Short Version: It’s Been a Rough Year

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After recognising that it was time to sell, Twitter couldn’t find a buyer in 2016. !

Google, Apple and Salesforce, along with a rumoured bevy of other interested parties, took a pass.!

And the consideration of the deal reportedly revealed continuing divisions in the Twitter Board.!

No Sale

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Well-loved, but not quite loved-enough, Vine wasn’t part of Twitter’s core strategy, so they walked away, leaving many in tears.!

And many others wondering where to get their sport highlights.!

Vine Withers

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Facebook prioritised Live in 2016, at Twitter’s expense. !

By including Live moments in Notifications, Facebook is giving its offering a big boost of viewers and users.!

Some publishers report they’re already attracting huge viewerships — and revenue — from their FB Live shows.!

Twitter is fighting back. Live is a key part of its strategy, and it’s driving solid performance. Users seems to enjoy, and advertisers seem to getting some value. This is an area to watch going forward.!

Fighting for their LIVE

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Facebook Messenger in general, and its bot offering in particular are direct challengers to Twitter’s supremacy on social customer service.!

Twitter is rumoured to have its own bot offering on the way, but customers will decide this battle. Where’s the best place to complain?!

Customer Care Less

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Trolls reemerged as a top issue for Twitter, with bad headlines popping up throughout the year. And spurring big questions, not just about the future of Twitter, but of the whole Internet.!

Twitter needs to find a solution, especially in light of progress that Instagram announced last month. But it’s hard for Twitter to balance its commitment to free speech with the need for automated interventions. !

We feel some sympathy for Twitter here. Facebook (and its ecosystem) have made no such commitments, so anti-trolling and anti-spam interventions are often ham-handed and controversial. Twitter lets the conversation flow, and invites us to live with the dialogue. This is another area to watch in months to come.!

Trolls Under the Bridge

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Arguably Twitter’s biggest troll, Trump got himself elected President of the United States. !

To many, this brought Twitter to a new low. !

But it also served as a powerful reminder about the potency of the platform.!

Trick Lost to a Trump Card

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Through deep data analysis, publishers like BuzzFeed have concluded that Twitter can still stoke interest in content.!

Twitter remains the first place that many influencers turn for news and breaking stories.!

The potential for it to influence conversation and coverage is still immense.!

Collecting massive amounts of data over

time has allowed BuzzFeed to learn,

among other things, that while ideas get an early start on Twitter, they go

wide and become popular on Facebook.

- Noah Robischon, Fast Company!

Twitter: Still a Buzz Starter

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Defining Twitter Retrench

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Twitter continues to struggle to find articulate its place in the world now and in the future.!

Yet, they still have an active and significant user base. And that user base has demonstrated that the platform can have a big impact on politics, brands, technology, celeb culture, movies, media, and publishing. Its potential to influence is still substantial.!

In the absence of a sale, we predict that Twitter will narrow its focus in 2017, to focus on two key areas: data and influence.!

On data, Twitter has a huge amount to offer. They’ll move to monetise this more directly and more aggressively. The free / semi-free lunch on the firehose may be over.!

On influence, Trump was as much a gift as a curse. Others will recognise the opportunity that Twitter presents, and rush to seize it. Live will be a key part of Twitter’s strategy here. But it’s hard to anticipate whether it can offer a sufficiently disruptive product solution to attract users away from Facebook en masse.!

Defining Twitter Retrench

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We’re over reliant on Twitter right now for data on audience interests and the real-time conversation. More than 80% of reported social conversation volume in commonly used tools like Sysomos, Brandwatch and Crimson Hexagon comes from Twitter. !

If access to Twitter data was reduced, too many brands (and the data tools that inform decision-making) would be flying blind. !

Brands must widen their sources of data and insight. That might mean paying more for a wider range of data. !

It also means pushing vendors — both tool makers and platforms themselves — for more access to data and insights.!

Expand Your Data Feed

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For some brands, it’s fine to aim to be influential on Twitter — to build a following and distribute content that people will happily consume and share.!

But it’s time to reconsider Twitter as a platform for influence. So success isn’t just about publishing. It’s about partnering with influencers to co-create and reach their audiences.!

Look for strong, second-tier and emerging influencers and help them make something that’s truly valuable.!

Brands also need to think more expansively about audience segments. Brexit and Trump showed us an establishment vs. anti-establishment world. And there are countless cohorts among the larger ones. Brands need to continue developing content for specific audiences, and optimising the stuff that performs best.!

Finally, consider including Twitter as part of your Live strategy. Two cameras is no more difficult than one — especially when they’re both phones anyway. So why not do both? It can’t hurt. !

Reconsider Your Influencer Strategy

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Trend 5: Facebook’s Proprietary Metric Problem Maybe they hope it’ll just go away

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Background

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Facebook Metrics in 2016 How many times Facebook messed up its metrics this year (that we know about)?!!Let us count the ways: !

1.  Overstated the average video viewing time by up to 80% (for TWO YEARS)

2.  Overstated how long people spent reading Instant Articles

3.  Overcounted views with Branded organic posts (double counting repeat visitors)

4.  Overstated website and app referrals

5.  Video Through Rate (VTR) under-reported

6.  Under-reported Facebook reactions to Live video content

7.  Mobile search miscalculations

!All of the above was uncovered in Q4 of 2016. But still, there’s another 213* other metrics by which Facebook can be measured, so that must be all fine. !

*Facebook has 220 metrics that it shares with brands measure effectiveness - and people say ROI is difficult

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Defining the Facebook Proprietry Metric Problem

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Facebook knows this is unacceptable Brownie points for coming clean, Facebook (although you have to wonder exactly how much additional money it made in regards to the miscalculation of viewing times for TWO WHOLE YEARS), very admirable. !

However, to convince media buyers that there’s genuine gold left in them hills, in 2017 Facebook will have to give itself up to objective third-party measurement and verification of its numbers. !

Especially if there’s a lingering issue about how it measures - something that its competitors must be acutely aware of. !

Combine the above with the ongoing political battle (and more*) with all things post-truth and/or fake news, you can see why Facebook could be at best, accused of not playing by the rules and worst, marking its own homework to put itself in a better light. !

At the moment, Facebook is not down with letting anyone behind the curtain - and that’s the definition of the problem right there. !

*Zuckerberg said Facebook didn’t (and couldn’t) influence the 2016 US election. All that ad space we buy in the newsfeed though, that works. 100%.

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Measurement, Measurement, Measurement!

IGNORE the 220-odd measurements that Facebook offer you and revert to your original toolset. Be that brand-tracking, lead generation, or brand awareness. Don’t just hit post on a meme and come back in a week and count the likes and shares just to see… what? !

Exactly. !

Instead, focus on the metrics that matter to your brand or business or agency. !

This is such an easy one but we’ve seen it time and time again: brand marketers get so caught up in the like-chasing that they don’t stop to realise what impact (if any) the endless meat-grinder of the Facebook news feed actually has on the day to day business. !

And that is a troublesome road. For all involved. !

If you do that, we’ll keep banging the drum for Facebook, and the other main social platforms for that matter, to open themselves up for true external and objective auditing. !

Wouldn’t that be nice? !

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And we’re done! Kinda…

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Bonus Noodles

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The Best Bonus of All For the past few years, we’ve ended with a few thoughts that we didn’t quite have the time, data or energy to land.!

To be honest, 2016 took it out of us. The madness of Brexit and Trump was a constant sap on emotional and mental energy. So there weren’t going to be any noodles this year. We just hadn’t come up with any.!

But on December 10th, just as we were putting the finishing touches on this report, James welcomed his new daughter, Bobbie, into the world. !

Reckoning that there was no possibility of identifying a better bonus noodle than that, Marshall elected just to call it a day, and send some cigars, FAO Mr. Whatley, by express courier. !

Oh, and to say a massive congratulations to his friend and co-author.!

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That’s all folks. Got questions? Send them our way: [email protected]/ @marshallmanson [email protected] / @whatleydude

Key Digital Trends for 2017 By Marshall Manson & James Whatley

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Appendix

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Appendix: Links & References I Slide 4 - Adblocker Numbershttps://www.emarketer.com/Article/US-Ad-Blocking-Jump-by-Double-Digits-This-Year/101411https://adblockplus.org/blog/100-million-users-100-million-thank-yous

Slide 5 - Google VR Numbershttps://blog.google/products/google-vr/unfolding-virtual-journey-cardboard/

Slide 8 - Millennial Data https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore?q=millennials

Slide 12 - Distributed Content Numbershttps://www.emarketer.com/Article/Site-Visits-Social-Shares-Measure-Content-Marketing-Success-Europe/1013970

Slide 18 - Platform Bot Offeringshttp://newsroom.fb.com/news/2016/04/messenger-platform-at-f8https://blog.twitter.com/2016/speed-up-customer-service-with-quick-replies-welcome-messages-in-direct-messages

Slide 20 - Marketer Bot/AI Surveyhttps://go.oracle.com/LP=43079/? Slide 21 - App Install Data http://andrewchen.co/new-data-shows-why-losing-80-of-your-mobile-users-is-normal-and-that-the-best-apps-do-much-better/

Slide 25 - China Message App / Bot Data https://t.co/JrpnRGjNsL https://chatbotsmagazine.com/chinas-wechat-foretells-facebook-microsoft-bot-platforms-future-278c3bd4bf14#.9rh3tnp7ahttp://www.businessinsider.com.au/michael-wolf-predicts-what-will-happen-in-the-tech-industry-in-2016-2015-10#/#-23 (with an additional build from Rehab Studio)Slide 30 - Algorithms and Fake Newshttps://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/viral-fake-election-news-outperformed-real-news-on-facebook?utm_term=.ik19XEmM1a#.jnKjYoABJ7https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/24/facebook-clickbait-political-news-sites-us-election-trump

Slide 31 - Driverless Bud Deliveryhttps://www.dezeen.com/2016/10/26/self-driving-delivery-truck-otto-budweiser-driverless-vehicle-design-transport-technology-colorado-usa/#/

Slide 32 - Driverless Food http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/3/10706516/samsung-giant-touchscreen-smart-fridge-photos-ces-2016

Slide 34 - Driverless Jobshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-33327659http://www.nbcnews.com/id/42183592/ns/business-careers/t/nine-jobs-humans-may-lose-robots/#.WEf7aaKLS3J

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Appendix: Links & References II Slide 35 - Moral Machineshttp://moralmachine.mit.edu/ https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/crash-how-computers-are-setting-us-up-disaster

Slide 36 - Mercedes vs Pedestrianshttp://uk.businessinsider.com/mercedes-benz-self-driving-cars-programmed-save-driver-2016-10

Slide 37 - FAA Data (scary reading)http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/12/10756640/faa-airline-pilot-automation-inspector-general-reporthttps://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20Flight%20Decek%20Automation_Final%20Report%5E1-7-16.pdf

Slide 49 - FB Earnings Quote http://www.inc.com/salvador-rodriguez/facebook-earnings-video.html

Slide 50 - FB 360 Live http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/12/13921908/facebook-live-360-video

Slide 60 - Twitter: No Sale https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-twitter-dorsey-strategy/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-14/twitter-falls-after-salesforce-ceo-benioff-tells-ft-he-won-t-bid

Slide 63 - Customer Care Lesshttps://hbr.org/2016/05/why-facebook-messenger-is-a-big-deal-for-customer-servicehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/blakemorgan/2016/02/01/5-ways-to-turn-facebook-messenger-into-your-best-customer-service-tool/#6a2c628b5d9ehttp://uk.businessinsider.com/chatbots-vs-humans-for-customer-relations-2016-12?r=US&IR=T

Slide 64 – Trollshttp://mashable.com/2016/07/21/stop-twitter-trolls-with-tech/#w.q5IiI.Xqq7http://fortune.com/2016/10/18/twitter-disney-salesforcehttp://time.com/4457110/internet-trolls/https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/factcheckingthecandidates/twitter-is-taking-on-the-trolls/vp-AAkl2jC

Slide 66 - Twitter still workshttps://www.fastcompany.com/3056057/most-innovative-companies/how-buzzfeeds-jonah-peretti-is-building-a-100-year-media-company

Slide 74 - Facebook Metrics issues in 2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-overestimated-key-video-metric-for-two-years-1474586951http://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-says-it-found-more-miscalculated-metrics-1479303984https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-16/facebook-vows-transparency-after-miscalculating-some-metricshttp://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/facebook-admits-measurement-errors-third-time/1418356