David Anderson, Enterprise Service Planning – Масштабирование преимуществ Kanban

[email protected] @lki_dja Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

Scaling the Benefits of Kanban


Enterprise Services Planning


You are part of a professional services business!

An ecosystem of professionals providing interdependent services, often with complex dependencies.

Professional Service organizations build intangible goods


The challenge of professional services businesses

A constantly changing external environment has a ripple effect across your entire business ecosystem

Priorities change and required capability & service levels rise in response to competition, disruptive market innovation & changes in customer tastes


The challenge of professional services businesses

Lack of alignment between Strategy and Capability is risky, & results in unpredictable, unsatisfactory outcomes

Risks are not adequately hedged, performance is volatile & untrustworthy. As a result managers cannot act & decide with confidence


A Managers Dilemma


What should we start next?

Will it be delivered when

we need it?

Do we have capacity to do everything we

need to do?


How will dependencies

affect our ability to deliver?

How many activities should

we have running in parallel?

If we delay starting something, will the capacity be available

when we need it?


Dem

and

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability

ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityLooking downstream, you want the system to help you anticipate

and manage dependencies


ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityDe

man

d

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability

Looking upstream, you want the system to help you anticipate and

manage demand


Dem

and

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability

ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating Capacity

Combine the two, and across the organization you smooth flow end-to-

end and help keep demand in balance withoverall system capability



Enterprise Services Planning (ESP) is an enterprise-wide management solution that leverages Kanban* to improve each service within your business.


Enterprise Services PlanningThe goal of Enterprise Services Planning


Enterprise Services PlanningManufacturing

1947 – Kanban1964 & 1975 – MRP

Professional Services

2004 – Kanban2015 – ESP

ESP is “MRP for professional services”. ESP is for managing capacity & scheduling intangible work


But first…


Kanban 2.0


Proto-Kanban(Emerging, Shallow, Low Maturity implementations)


Aggregated Personal Kanban

Backlog

F

H

E

C A

TeamMember

G

D

Next Done3

In-progress

3

Joe

Peter

Steven

Joann

per person∞ ∞per personAt this level, we are still focused on organizing & managing people rather

than enabling people to self-organize around the work &

managing its flow


O

P

R

N

M

L

J

Per Person WIP Limit

Done

F

H E

C

A

I

Pending

G

DGY

PB DE

MN

AB

Dev/Build/Test/Deploy

DevReady

GY

GY

PB

PB

MN

MN

DE

DE

ABAB

K

Bench

Specify

B

∞∞ ∞

Unbounded

Queue

DelayedWIP

At this level, we are focused on managing work and enabling people to self-

organize around it but we aren’t limiting WIP in the

system as a whole. Hence, service delivery will not be

predictable


Aggregated Team Kanban

Done

Poolof

Ideas

FH E

C A

I

NextDeploy-

mentReady

GD

GYPB

DEMN

5 ∞

P1

AB

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

3 3

I am a buffer!

The clue is in my name – “… Ready”

I am buffering non-instant availability or activity with a

cyclical cadence

Infinite limits on done columns means that there really isn’t a kanban pull system present.

This style of proto-kanban controls multi-tasking but doesn’t limit workflow WIP

∞ ∞

Also known as “infinite done queues”


Kanban Systems


H

QP

OM

LK

J

I

Kanban can be represented with slots

Ideas

D

E

A

Engin-eeringReady

G

Ongoing

Development TestingDone

TestReady

F

B

CPullPull

*

UATDeploy-

mentReady

An empty slot signals pull

Pull

Pull

PullIPhysical slot is a kanban

The tickets on the board are not the kanban. Believing the tickets are the kanban is a common misconception

This board and the next two all look different but they all visualize the same

identical kanban system


H

FF OM

NK

J

I

Using movable tokens as kanban is more flexible

Ideas

D

E

A

I

DevReady

G

Development TestingTest

Ready

F B

C

UATReleaseReady

In-progressLegend

Done

Blocked - issue

Blocked - defect

Physical token such as a magnet is a kanban

Colors are used to denote state

Moving done items down below a line is an optional enhancement

seen in some implementations

Override on kanban limit introduces additional

“blocked – issue” kanban

People working on blocked item “A”

have been redirected to work

on item “I”

Using physical slots in the previous example has been shown to create

inertia to modification & improvement

Using movable tokens allows for WIP limits to be easily modified and provides a natural signal token

mechanism


H

FF FF FF J

I

Declaring a kanban quantity is even simpler

Ideas

D

E

A

I

Engin-eeringReady

G

5Ongoing

Development Testing

Done

3 3

TestReady

5

F

B

CPull

PullThese are the virtual kanban

*

These are the virtual kanbanThese are the virtual kanbanThese WIP limits serve the function of the magnets or slots

This board has even less maintenance overhead than the magnet board

UATDeploy-

mentReady

∞ ∞

A “virtual kanban” pull signal is created by subtracting the column

number from tickets currently in the column


Commitment is deferred

H

EC A

D

Commitment point

FF FF FF F

G

Pull

Wish to avoid aborting after commitment

IdeasDev

Ready5

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

UATReleaseReady

∞ ∞

We are committing to getting started. We are certain we want

to take delivery.

Ideas remain optional and (ideally) unprioritized


Discovery Kanban


Discovery Kanban Prepares OptionsReady

forEngin-eering

F

H

I

Comm-itted

D

4 Ongoing

Development

Done3

JK

12

Testing

Verification3

L

Commitment point

4 -

Requi-rementsAnalysis

2412 -

RiskAnalysis

4824 -

Poolof

Ideas

∞

Min & Max limitsensure sufficientoptions are alwaysavailable

Committed WorkOptions

Discarded

OReject

P Q

$$$ spent acquiring options $$$ spent converting

options

Embedded Options

Done


Roles


Kanban Roles Are EmergingReady

forEngin-eering

F

H

I

Comm-itted

D

4 Ongoing

Development

Done3

JK

12

Testing

Verification3

L

Commitment point

4 -

Requi-rementsAnalysis

2412 -

RiskAnalysis

4824 -

Poolof

Ideas

∞

Service Delivery ManagerService Request Manager

Discarded

OReject

P Q

Marshals Options Manages Flow

Done


Revised Definition of theKanban Method


The Evolutionary Change Principles

1. Start with what you do now Understanding current processes, as actually practiced Respecting existing roles, responsibilities & job titles

2. Gain agreement to pursue improvement through evolutionary change

3. Encourage acts of leadership at all levels


The Service Delivery Principles

1. Understand and focus on your customers’ needs and expectations

2. Manage the work, let people self-organize around it3. Your organization is an ecosystem of interdependent

services steered by its policies, reflect regularly on their effectives and improve them


General Practices

1. Visualize (with a kanban board 看板 )

2. Limit work-in-progress (with kanban かんばん )

3. Manage flow4. Make policies explicit5. Implement feedback loops6. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally

(using models & the scientific method)


The Kanban Lens


StrategyReview

RiskReview

Monthly

ServiceDeliveryReview

Bi-WeeklyQuarterly

KanbanMeeting

Daily

OperationsReview

Monthly

Replenishment/Commitment

Meeting

Weekly

DeliveryPlanningMeeting

Per delivery cadence

change change

change

change

change

change

change change

change

info

info

info

info

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Kanban Cadences


Specific Practices for Service Delivery

1. Visualize service delivery workflows2. Implement virtual kanban systems3. Manage flow within & across workflows4. Make your decision framework, risk management

policies & boundaries of empowerment explicit5. Implement the Kanban Cadences6. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally

(using fitness criteria metrics, and model-driven improvements based upon an understanding of risks, variability, constraints, sources of delay, queuing theory, real

option theory, transaction & coordination costs)


Are we doing Kanban or not?

It isn’t a question of evaluating practice usage but rather a question of intent …

Do you intend to use visualization & kanban systems to drive a focus on sustained fitness for purpose?

Do you view your organization as a network of services and seek to improve the balance of capability against demand &

customer expectations?


Kanban Litmus Test


Revised STATIK(Systems Thinking Approach to Introducing Kanban)

This process tends to be

iterative

Identify Services. For each service…


Definition ofEnterprise Services Planning


Enterprise Services Planning3 Organizational Steps

Foster a culture focused on continual

fit-for-purpose service delivery

Seeing Services

“Kanban” each service

Feedback Loop System

Identify interdependent services in your organization

Use the STATIK method to create a Kanban system for each service

Implement a set of responsive feedback loops


Enterprise Services PlanningStep 1: Seeing Services


Enterprise Services PlanningStep 2: Kanban the Services


Enterprise Services PlanningStep 3: Responsive Feedback Loops

StrategyReview

RiskReview

Monthly


Bi-WeeklyQuarterly

KanbanMeeting

Daily

OperationsReview

Monthly


Meeting

Weekly



change change

change

change

change

change

change change

change

info

info

info

info

info

infoinfo

info

info

change info


Illustrates 4 Functions of Management in ESP

StrategyReview

RiskReview

Monthly


Bi-WeeklyQuarterly

KanbanMeeting

Daily

OperationsReview

Monthly


Meeting

Weekly



change change

change

change

change

change

change change

change

info

info

info

info

info

infoinfo

info

info

change info

Focus on Service Delivery

Driving improvement…

Higher level management function


Enterprise Services PlanningAchieve “Fitness for Purpose”

+

These must be balanced to deliver what your customers need and expect: to be “fit for purpose”


Enterprise Services Planning6 Planning Activities


Enterprise Services PlanningFit for purpose one service at a time

Using ESP, run an effective, risk managed business.

Align enterprise strategy with capability.


Risk Profiling


Visualize Risks to provide Scheduling Information

TS

Market Risk

CR

Spoil

Diff

Lifecycle

Cost of Delay

Tech Risk

Delay Impact

NewMid

Cow

Expedite

FDStd

Intangible

ELEMaj. Cap.

Disc

Unknown SolnKnown but not us

Done it beforeCommodity

Risk profile for a work item or project

Outside:Commit Early

Inside:Commit Late

Items with the same shape carry the same risks. They cannot be prioritized or sequenced. From a group of items with

the same risk profile pick whichever ones you like.

It is also wise to hedge risk by allocating capacity in the system for items of different risk profiles.


Custom Profile Contains Narrative


Forecasting


Lead Time & Weibull Distributions

Lead time histograms observed to be Weibull distributions typically with shape parameter 1.0 < k < 2.0

This example is a Weibull distribution with a scale parameter equal to 65 and shape parameter equal to 1.4

Outliers with known special causes at 87 & 105 are omitted from the “best fit” curve


Chan

ge R

eque

sts

SLA (customer expectation or fitness criteria)60 days

Use Lead Time Distribution to EvaluateService Delivery Effectiveness

22-150 dayspread of variation

85%on-time

15% lateDue DatePerformance(DDP)

Predictability


Forecasting methods


Little’s Law provides simple but effective medium to long term forecasts

Delivery Rate(from the kanban system) System Lead Time

WIP=

Little’s Law uses the mean lead

time

Mean is strongly affected by the tail on the lead

time distribution

Chan

ge R

eque

sts

MeanTailMedian

Mode

Control the shape of the distribution by managing flow and avoid extending tail

of the distribution


Scheduling


When should we start something?

impa

ct

When we need it

85th percentile

Ideal StartHere

Commitment point

timeJan10

Nov11

If we start too early, we forgo the option and opportunity to do something else that may

provide value.

If we start too late we risk incurring the cost of delay

If we pull the work into our kanban system on Nov 11 we

have a 6 out of 7 chance of on-time delivery


We can study sensitivity to different start dates

impa

ct

When we need it

50th percentile

Later StartHere

Commitment point

timeJan10

Nov25

If we start as late as November 25 we only have a 50% chance

of on-time delivery

However, the cost of delay incurred if we deliver within 60

days is relatively small. We have an 85% chance of achieving delivery with acceptable cost of delay

85th percentile


What is the latest we could start?

impa

ct

When we need it

0th percentile

Very latestart

Commitment point

timeJan10

Dec19

If we start as late as December 19 we have 0% chance of on-

time delivery

We have about a 10% chance of a total loss delivering the

promotion beyond the expiry date of the opportunity

85th percentiletotal loss


To be certain of delivery without incurring any cost of delay is expensive

impa

ct

When we need it

98th percentile

Early Start

Commitment point

timeJan10

Aug11

If we are conservative and do not wish to carry any risk of late delivery or any risk of

incurring an opportunity cost of delay, then we must start as

early as August 13th.

We must commit to our Spring Break 2015 promotion during

Summer 2014!!!


Window of opportunity

impa

ct

When we need itEarliest Start

timeJan10

Aug11

Latest viable

start

Dec19

Optimal Start

Nov11

On August 11st the item becomes available for selection

at Kanban system replenishment.

The ideal time to start is November 11th.

After December 19th our option to deliver this item expires and

we would discard it from our pool.


Summary


Enterprise Services Planning Curriculum


Dem

and

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability

ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityLooking downstream, you want the system to help you anticipate

and manage dependencies


ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating CapacityDe

man

d

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability

Looking upstream, you want the system to help you anticipate and

manage demand


Dem

and

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability

ESP – Anticipating Demand, Allocating Capacity

Combine the two, and across the organization you smooth flow end-to-

end and help keep demand in balance withoverall system capability


Enterprise Services Planning“Making Better Use of Kanban at Scale”


Thank you!


About

David Anderson is an innovator in management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods…He has 30+ years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.David defined Enterprise Services Planning and originated Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.David is Chairman of Lean Kanban Inc., a business operating globally, dedicated to providing quality training & events to bring Kanban and Enterprise Services Planning to businesses who employ those who must “think for a living.”


Upstream Kanban emerged in several locations in Paris, France and Belgium circa 2010. Discovery Kanban is an evolution of Upstream Kanban pioneered by Patrick Staeyert

Risk profile courtesy of BazaarVoice

The 2nd Edition of the Kanban Method definition owes much to the perseverance of Andy Carmichael and contributions from Mike Burrows, Alexei Zheglov and Klaus Leopold

Acknowledgements


Curriculum





ESP I – Enterprise Services


ESP II – Project & Capacity Planning


ESP III – Portfolio Management


Leadership & Management

David Anderson, Enterprise Service Planning – Масштабирование преимуществ Kanban