DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

“ “Welcome to the final quarter of 2013! As we wind down into the fourth quarter of the year, TrendLine again brings you key insights into the temporary staffing industry. Our thorough research into pivotal trends and current events, along with our in depth analysis of contingent worker supply and demand, gives you a pulse of the market.

The DCR National Temp Wage Index focuses on wage trends through the course of the year, analyzing the use of temp workers and tracking related developments in the economy. This month, we highlight the trends and figures from the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Keep an eye out for our chart on the growth of temporary jobs over the past year.

Our next article examines new research that shows how unhappy permanent workers are transitioning to temporary positions, refuting the popular claim that temp jobs are strongly correlated with job dissatisfaction. In fact you’ll see that temp work actually provides many of the motivation factors that promote job contentment.

As we start to close out the year, we shift our focus to follow up on topics that TrendLine has previously explored. We first look at the enforcement of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA) initiative to expand the protection of temporary workers. We then closely examine the calculation of the unemployment rate, and why there is an obvious disconnect based on the latest labor force participation rates. We then break down the major issues to give you the information you need to really examine why the American workforce is shrinking.

We next briefly look at temp worker trends in the European market, highlighting countries with major changes in temporary worker demand. Our final article this month throws the spotlight on the increasing use of social networks as a part of a multi-channel strategy that recruiters are implementing.

Ammu WarrierAmmu Warrier, President

Inside this IssueNote from the Editor

DCR National Temp Wage Index

Temp Employment: A Move towards Happiness

Status Report: OSHA’s Protections for Temp Workers

The Shrinking Workforce: Non-Working Population Impact

Temporary Employment: A Glance at European Markets

LinkedIn Remains Top Choice for Employers

Methodology

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“While demand remains uneven in different sectors and in different regions of the country, staffing firms are generally more optimistic about increases in job growth over the balance of the year.”

~Richard Wahlquist, President and CEO of the American Staffing Association

REPORT # 19 | October 2013

TRENDLINEContingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

Note from the Editor

Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 1

With the holiday season approaching, the job market has an increased demand for temporary workers by employers. In the fourth quarter of 2013 we expect the surge of employers’ reliance on temps to drive increased employment numbers along with the hourly wages of the temporary workforce in the United States.

In August, the U.S. added 13,100 temporary help services jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Total nonfarm employment rose by 169,000 for a total employment of approximately 136.13 million.

Employment in auto manufacturing rose steadily, continuing to outpace the economy in general. The oil and gas sector is booming and employment in that industry continues to accelerate. While employment growth in the construction sector was flat in August, it has grown at twice the national rate over the last 12 months, creating nearly 650 new jobs every day.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.3 percent in August from 7.4 percent in July. College-level unemployment, often considered a representation for professional employment also dropped down to 3.5 percent in August from 3.8 per-cent in July.



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Aggregate Hours Declining

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“In the employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), we can get the trend of the hours worked by Americans from the aggregate weekly hours data. Growth in the number of hours worked means higher rates of production and more economic activity. In the last month, job creation rose and unemployment decreased, but aggregate hours worked declined by one-tenth of a percent. This means that employers hired more people but for fewer hours each. It is possible that the new Affordable Care Act (ACA) regulations are prompting employers to add more part-time rather than full-time workers.

Year-over-Year Growth in Temporary Jobs (Seasonally Adjusted)

Temp Employment: A Move towards Happiness


A study by the University of West England, the University of Bath and AUT University in New Zealand, has discovered a strong link between worker job dissatisfaction and their decision to choose temporary employment. The research showed that those workers who had switched to temporary work in the year of being interviewed were 76% more likely to suffer from high levels of anxiety.

This research goes a long way to refute the popular claims that temporary workers generally have higher levels of job dissatisfaction. If over three-quarters of recently transitioned temporary workers are already dissatisfied entering the temporary workforce, it holds to reason that poor mental health is not a direct result of temp work but rather carried over from their previous permanent employment.

A survey by the Department of Labour of New Zealand found that 81% of temporary workers were satisfied or very satisfied with their job. Only six percent of temp workers said that they were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied, while five percent of permanent workers claimed the same.

With the changing demands of the workforce, where job flexibility and autonomy are topping the priority list, temporary employment may offer workers higher job satisfaction and happiness.

Why are Workers Interested?

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“So poor mental health is not a consequence of becoming a temporary worker, but a good predictor of workers who will move to temporary employment in the future. We also found that lying behind this poor mental health was dissatisfaction with their existing permanent job.” ~Dr. Gail Pacheo, AUT University

“Temporary employees were slightly more satisfied with their work-life balance than permanent employees…Among temporary workers, those who worked for a temporary employment agency rated their work life balance most highly.” ~Department of Labour, New Zealand

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Temp Work Offers Many of the Key Factors of Job Satisfaction

Status Report: OSHA’s Protections for Temp Workers


In the June 2013 edition of TrendLine we examined the new initiative by The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) that extends protections for temp workers. This month, we look at the latest OSHA inspection data to verify the status of the agency’s s commitment to temporary worker safety.

Since the April 29, 2013 memorandum where inspectors were asked to pay more attention to issues involving temporary workers, it appears that OSHA’s inspectors are truly taking the initiative to heart. OSHA inspection data shows that the number of inspections of temporary staffing agencies has doubled compared to last year.

As of August 12, 2013, OSHA compliance officers had conducted 24 inspections of temporary staffing agencies. Among state-administered workplace safety agencies, there were 52 inspections of temporary staffing agencies this year.

Federal inspections of worksites between April 29th and mid-July identified 262 establishments where temporary workers were “exposed to safety and health violations” according to Thomas Galassi, the head of OSHA’s Directorate of Enforcement. The most frequent violations were electrical hazards, lockout/tagout protections, fall protections, hazard communication, and powered industrial trucks (forklifts).

In addition, in a July webinar, OSHA has promised to develop educational material including fact sheets, websites and “best practice” guidance. The agency is also working with the American Staffing Association to develop a common understanding about the responsibilities of staffing agencies and the companies that control workers when they are on job sites.

“The discussions with OSHA are leading to clarity to what is sometimes viewed as a murky area” ~Stephen Dwyer, General Counsel for the American Staffing Association““



Labor Force Participation Rate, 1978-2013 (Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: BLS

When both the civilian labor participation rate and the unemployment rate show a downward trend, there is a definite indication that something is amiss in the calculation of unemployment. In August, the labor force participation rate (percentage of people over the age of 16 who either have a job or actively searching for one) has fallen to 63.2%. The last time it was this low was thirty-five years ago in August of 1978. This means that over 90 million Americans are currently not in the labor force. Meanwhile, the BLS reported in August that the unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percent to 7.3 percent.

Obviously, there is a clear disconnect between the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate, and a large question surfaces – Where has the workforce gone?

“Just to highlight how big of a puzzle this is, IT jobs openings are at about 50%, job hirings are at 5%. There is a really big gap and that is a really unusual difference” ~ Peter Orszag, Chairman of the Public Sector Group““



Civilian Unemployment Rate, 2009 to 2013

Earlier this year, TrendLine presented this issue to readers by analyzing how a major part of the population is left out when calculating the official unemployment rate. The research team at DCR Workforce has dug deep into the data to conduct econometric research, bringing up the following questions to narrow the area of discussion and keep it focused:

• If the labor force participation rate is the same as in 1978, are we ignoring a productive labor force group in the unemployment rate calculation?• Are there qualified workers for the available jobs?• Who are these unconsidered workers?• What impact does supporting this population have on the U.S. government’s spend budget?

Often workers have difficulty finding positions that match their skill sets and eventually lose interest in the job hunt. They become discouraged and stop actively looking for a job. This portion of the population is not considered in the unemployment rate calculation.

While the unemployment rate has been steadily decreasing since its high of 10 percent in October of 2009 to 7.3 percent in August of 2013, the percentage of Americans in the labor force has not risen. The sample of workers actively seeking work is becoming smaller and the unemployment rate is being calculated on this smaller group. With so many workers no longer looking for work, it is arguable that the falling labor force participation rate is driving much of the decline in the country’s unemployment rate. To be counted as unemployed, based on the BLS calculations, you actually have to be actively searching for a job.

According to Gallup, when including individuals who are underemployed, the unemployment rate is 17.7 percent!

Are We Ignoring a Productive Labor Force Group in the Unemployment Rate Calculation?


An Example of the Relationship between the Labor Force Participation Rate and the Unemployment Rate

Let’s say we have a country of ten people. Albert, Amanda, Alex, Ava, and Adam have full-time jobs. Brandon and Barbara have lost their jobs and are looking for work. Cynthia, Clyde and Carter have retired.

At this status, the labor participation rate is 70 percent because seven in ten have a job or are actively looking for a job. The three who are retired are out of the labor force. The unemployment rate would be 28.6 percent because two out of the seven (the labor force) do not have a job.

Now, Brandon has been looking for a job for months but has now lost hope. He gives up looking, thus leaving the labor force. The labor force participation rate then decreases to 60 percent. But even though Brandon is not working, the unemployment rate also goes down. No one has found new work, but the unemployment rate, based on the labor force number of 6 now, would be 16.7 percent. Of the six people left in the labor force, only one – Barbara – is not employed. So you can see that looking at the unemployment rate, without considering the labor force participation rate, can sometimes hide the negative effects of discouraged workers.

In 2013, some jobs were harder for recruiters to fill, and most of them require workers with specific skills and higher qualifications.

These jobs include:

• Sales Representatives• Drivers• Information Technology Workers• Accounting and Finance Workers• Engineers• Technicians• Management and Executives• Mechanics• Teachers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there are 3.9 million job openings in the U.S. However, many of the available workers who are actively searching for jobs are not a good fit for the available jobs because they do not have the training, experience or skills to successfully fill open positions. A study in 2013 by CareerBuilder and the American Staffing Association found that “3 in 5 hiring managers say there is a skills gap in their industry.”


Are There Qualified Workers for the Available Jobs?

“The bottom rung of job seekers – those who lack skills or whose skills are a mismatch for demand – are discouraged and no longer appear on the list of those unemployed even as thousands of skilled positions remain unfilled in almost every market.” ~Neal Bhamre, Field Consultant for Express Employment Professionals““


Fast changing technology and its application in almost all fields of employment is requiring workers to upgrade their skills and knowledge more frequently than ever before. Computer automation of work previously manually performed is leading to fewer jobs in manufacturing, clerical and retail work. Improved machines and software may soon expand into law, financial services, education and medicine.

Workers who have been out of the job market either due to positions not being available or because their skills do not match what employers require are bound to be constantly falling behind, unless they are able to identify and overcome the skills gap. This skill gap also helps to explain why many workers have given up on finding jobs for which they are qualified.

With the labor force participation rate clearly indicating that the workforce is shrinking, analysts are keen to identify who are these discouraged workers that are not counted in the unemployment rate calculation.

Baby Boomers: The generation of those born between 1946 and 1964 are retiring from the workforce. The first Baby Boomers turned 60 in 2006, and the size of the generation comprises 26.4 percent of the population making up the largest percentage of the U.S. workforce at 38 percent. Their retirement thus impacts the labor force participation rate significantly. While some Baby Boomers are retiring on schedule, there are younger Boomers who have left the labor force due to not having a choice. These workers lost long-held jobs during the economic downturn, and are now having difficulty re-entering the labor market.

Millenials: There are an estimated 1.8 million young adults who are not in the labor force because they have temporarily given up on job-hunting. A 2012 Pew Research Center study found that 36 percent of Millennia’s in the U.S. are living with their parents. According to Census Bureau data, from 2005 to 2012, the percentage of men aged 25 to 34 living in their parents’ home rose from 13.5% to 16.9%, while women of the same age group living at home rose from 8.1% to 10.4%

“Disabled” Workers: In 2011, approximately 4.6 percent of the American population between the ages of 18 and 64 received disability insurance. This group is not included in the unemployed, and it is estimated that less than one percent of them have returned to the workforce in the last two years. According to the Social Security Administration, there has been a 44 percent increase in claims by people formerly in the workplace.


Who are these Unconsidered Workers?

“In 2012, the average monthly job opening rate rose from 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent. The increase in average monthly hires and separations, however, were not as large.” ~Bureau of Labor Statistics

“The recent withdrawal of prime-age workers from the labor market is unprecedented.” ~Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

“Disability insurance has clearly become, in part, a form of extended unemployment insurance and early retirement, with Medicare benefits.” ~Michael Boskin, Professor of Economics at Stanford and Former Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors

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As the labor force shrinks, the number of retired Americans grows, which means it costs more per worker to cover entitlement costs. When Social Security started, there were 12 workers for every retiree, and today that ratio is closer to 1.5 to 1.

Social security is only a portion of the U.S. government’s spending on the American population who are not part of the labor force. Please see the table below (data as per August 2013) for our detailed analysis of the impact supporting this population has on the governmental spend and budget.

What Impact does Supporting this Population have on the U.S. Government’s Spend Budget?

US Population

Civilian Non-Institutional Population

Civilian Labor Force

Non-Working Population

Unemployed as per Unemployment Rate - Official at 7.3%

Total Unemployed (Official) + All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force + Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons (13.6%)

Real Disposable Personal Income: Per Capita / Year

Real Disposable Personal Income: Per capita / Month

Potential Disposable Income Lost Due to Unemployment in Aug.

Federal Government Spend on Disability per Year

Federal Government Spend on Disability per Month

Federal Government Spend on Unemployment per Year

Federal Government Spend on Unemployment per Month

Total Loss to the Federal Government (Potential + Actual Spend) in August

316.62 Million

245.95 Million

155.97 Million

approx. 90 Million

11.3 Million

21.56 Million

$36,626

$3,052

21.56 Million × $3052 = $ 65.801 Billion

$200 Billion (as per 2012)

16.7 Billion

$94 Billion

$7.8 Billion

$ 65.8 Billion + 16.7 Billion + $7.8 Billion = $90.3 Billion


Temporary jobs in The United Kingdom have been increasing rapidly. A report found that temporary billing has increased for the fourth consecutive month in August with a rate of expansion at its fastest since July of 1998. The Recruitment Employment Confederation (REC) found that the increase in temp workers was also supported by the sharpest rise in demand for these workers since December of 2000. And temporary staff hourly pay rates increased for the seventh consecutive month.

Jobs with the highest demand for temporary workers include engineering, nursing/medical/care, and construction positions.

In an ongoing debate in Germany regarding the use of temporary workers and the subsequent impact on permanent staff, the Federal Association of Personnel Services (BAP) announced that temporary workers were not a threat to the security of permanent workers.

As of June 2013, the proportion of temporary workers in the German workforce was 2.2 percent.

In August of 2013, temporary recruitment in Switzerland slowed, where year-over-year, it has fallen by 6.4 percent. The Swiss Federation of Staffing Companies expects a small negative growth for the remainder of the year, with a revival of the temporary employment industry over the next one to three years.

The staffing industry in Sweden saw revenues fall by 4 percent in the second quarter of 2013, compared with the same quarter last year. Temporary staffing, which is the industry’s largest segment, fell by 5 percent, where the biggest change was in general services sector recruitment, which decreased by 22% compared with a year ago.

However, research from Staffing Industry Analysts predicts that the Nordic Countries, including Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden and their associated territories, will be the overall best performing staffing markets in Europe in 2013.

TrendLine focuses primarily on the temporary workforce in the United States. However, the growing demand and supply of temp workers is also a tendency seen in other global markets. In this article, we take a brief look at the market status in Europe


Temporary Employment: A Glance at European Markets

The United Kingdom – Temporary Jobs Growing Fast

Germany – Temporary Employment Are Not a Threat

Switzerland – Temporary Recruitment Declining

Sweden – Staffing Slowdown Lessening

“August was an extraordinary month for the UK jobs market, with temp placements growth hitting a 15 year high. Our temporary worker index is the highest we have seen since 1998, the same summer Google was founded and France won the World Cup for the first time.” ~Kevin Green, Chief Executive of REC` ““


LinkedIn Remains Top Choice for Employers

Recruiters are increasingly turning to social sourcing channels to fulfill their talent needs. Similar to marketers, recruiters are using social networks as a key tactic in a multi-channel strategy to find leads and cultivate them to hire. Social networks provide a great platform to finding the right candidate just in time. Across social channels, as a part of the hiring process, recruiters look to discover information on candidates, looking at LinkedIn for professional experience, tenure, hard skills, recommendations and education, and at Facebook and Twitter for cultural fit and industry influence.

Jobvite’s Social Recruiting Survey for 2013 revealed that while Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter remain the top choices for finding talent, recruiters are also utilizing channels such as blogs, YouTube, GitHub, Yammer and Instagram. However, LinkedIn is still the most widely used social platform, with 94% of survey respondents considering it their top network for recruiting.

In terms of investment, 73% of respondents plan on increasing their spending on social networks as a recruiting source. Referrals and corporate career sites are also a key focus area for recruiters with 62% of respondents planning on increasing their spending on referral programs and 61% on their career site. Only 39% planned on increasing their investment on job boards.

Civilian Unemployment Rate, 2009 to 2013

Source: Jobvite Social Recruiting Survey for 2013

For those who have implemented social recruiting, they have seen strong returns with 33% reporting improved time to hire, 49% reporting better quality of candidates and 43% reporting a higher quantity of candidates.

The study found that 94% of recruiters surveyed currently use or plan to use social media in their recruiting efforts, and 78% of those using social media have hired through it.

“43% [of recruiters] spend less than $1000/month on social recruiting, but 60% estimate the value of their hires through those channels as greater than $20k/year. 20% estimate it as greater than $90k per year.” ~Jobvite, Social Recruiting Survey Results 2013“

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Methodology


The DCR Wage Index is developed to assess the relative movements of temporary wage rates in the U.S. economy. The wage rates for temporary workers or contingent workforce are based on payments made by staffing firms to these workers based upon hours worked. Data collected from sources such as Bureau of Labor Standards (BLS) and other government sites as well as an internal pool of staffing companies and consultants, is aggregated and classified based on regions and skill categories, to arrive at an aggregate index.

The baseline for the index is set at 100 for January 2007. Index value for a particular month indicates relative wages with the said baseline and is representative in terms of direction and scale of change. Five years of data has been included to observe seasonal patterns and distinguish seasonality from long-term wage movements. The data and the model has been further refined over last six months.

DCR Wage Index combines the exhaustive data from BLS with practical and more recent developments and data from on-field consultants and clients, to provide timely near-term indications of trends and consistent long-term actionable and objective information.

Source DataDCR Work Index uses multiple economic variables to ensure the robustness of its forecasts and cross-validation of trends.

Key data sources and parameters of interest included and influencing the index are:Unemployment dataGross Domestic ProductPrime rate of interestNew and seasonal Job openingsNon Form employmentJob OpeningAll ExportAll ImportAverage Hourly Earnings of All Employees Total PrivateAggregate consultant data on job market parameters

References

http://www.staffingindustry.com/site/Research-Publications/Daily-News/US-gains-13-100-temp-jobs-in-August-27143

http://www.workplacelaw.net/services/news/48868/unhappy-employees-move-towards-temporary-workInternational

http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/research/temporaryworkers/temporaryworkers_05.asp

http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Gallup-unemployment-BLS-jobless/2013/08/23/id/521925

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/04/08/how-americans-game-the-200-billion-a-year-disability-industrial-complex/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2013/03/28/federal-spending-up-employment-down/

http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/record-90-million-americans-not-in-labor-force/

http://www.ashdowngroup.com/news/rec-temp-billings-increase-at-strongest-rate-since-1998-news-801635485

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

http://www.staffingindustry.com/eng/Research-Publications/Daily-News/Germany-Temporary-employment-no-threat-

26886?cookies=disabled

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/27/explaining-the-labor-force-dropouts/?_r=1&

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504700/20130909/david-cameron-ed-miliband-frances-o-grady.htm

http://www.jobvite.com/rs/jobvite/images/Jobvite_SocialRecruiting2013.pdf

http://www.bna.com/inspections-temporary-worker-n17179875850/

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DCR Trendline October 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report