Track 7 morris final

Track 15: Water Utility Budgeting: Food to Drought, Understanding and Predicting Variable Cost Factors to Eliminate Surprises

Track 7: Modeling Impacts of Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise on Coastal Surface Water Utility (Part 1 Framing Climate Variability)Florida Public Works Expo - TampaApril 19, 2016

OverviewPART 1 Track 7: Framing Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise Concerns

PART 2 Track 11: Water Supply Reliability Modeling on the Peace River

Framing Climate Variability and Sea Level RiseIntroductionProxies Help Bridge Understanding of the PastClimate Controversy: Hockey Sticks/ClimategateGreenhouse GasesTemperature and Melting Ice Sea Level RiseEvidence of Past Extreme Climate VariationProjected Climate ConditionsConclusions

Introduction

Climate Discussion and RhetoricSpecial interests/opportunists Extremely polarizingDiminishes opportunities for open dialogue

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Important Issues in Voters Minds?

Biggest Problems Facing our Country?

Climate PolicyPolicy makers represent the broad, often conflicting, interests of society

Recent Gallup poll on what issues most concern Americans

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Proxies Help Bridge Understanding of the Past

If You Condensed All of Earths History into 24 HoursDinosaurs died out at 20 minutes before midnightHominids appear in the last 100 secondsPreserved ice cores let us see back 1 minuteOur country has only been around 4.5 millisecondsScientific data only goes back 1.5 milliseconds before midnight

24 hours

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Lacking Extensive Scientific Climate Record, We must use Proxies to Help Understand the Past Geologists & PaleontologistsAnthropologists & ArchaeologistsDendrologists & PaleoclimatologistsAtmospheric Scientists, SpeleologistsGlaciologists

Some Issues with Using ProxiesProxies indicate What, but not WhyLocal/Regional Proxies dont always reflect GlobalProxies Can be Unreliable:Subject to interpretation by the InvestigatorQC and Processing Standards are often Ad HocSamples destroyed in Analysis are impossible to verifyCases of Poor Interpretation, Exaggerations or Misrepresentation breed Skepticism

During the Medieval Warm Period Vikings Explored the North Atlantic

Hvalsey Church Ruin in Greenland (built ~ 1150)

Conditions During the Medieval Warm PeriodWarmer conditions 2 to 4 degrees F higher than todayLonger growing seasons and milder wintersBountiful agricultural harvestsWheat and vineyards in the far northLong stretches of regular weather (few droughts)

The Fate of the VikingsLittle Ice Age began about 1350Black Plague happened about the same time

Plaque in Weymouth England

Killed 60% of Europes populationQuarantines for Shipping

But in 1349 a wool merchant ship with all dead aboard grounded on coast of Norway

The Little Ice Age was an Era of Plagues

60 million died1 million died100,000 died100,000 died650,000 died500,000 died

Vikings Abandon Greenland by 1400Black Plague ~ 1350Cooling Temperatures brought livestock indoors for protection & warmthLess fodder livestock and even dogs eatenIron and other tools left behind Declining trade from plague-decimated Europe

Climate Controversy: Hockey Sticks &Climategate

Design of a Hockey Stick

Butt EndShaftHeelToe

One of the Most Significant and Unfortunate Proxy Controversies

After Marginalizing the MWP and LIA, the straight shaft was created, thus was Born the Hockey Stick Analogy

The Sheep Mountain Bristlecone Pines, some of the oldest living organisms on the planet ~ 5,000 years old!

Bristlecone PinesOldest non-clonal living organism > 5,000 yrs oldFound in Southwest USGrows on dolomite slopesAnnual rainfall < 12 yearIndividual needles live 40 yearsFar more reactive to precipitation than temperature

McKitrick & McIntyreQuestioned tree ring data and dug deeperMann refused to release his dataEventually got Access to Data and found:Manns algorithms flattened temps in middle ages and favored upspike at the presentDesirable proxies favored as much as 390:1So contrived, random data fed into the algorithm could produce desired resultsNature reportedly declined to publish retraction or rebuttal indicating they felt it would be too confusing to their readers

In the MeantimeManns paper, matched the policy-influencing narrative IPCC wantedMann, at the relatively young age of 35 became one of 8 lead authors of the IPCC Third Assessment Report in 2001He became a recognized expert overnightBut then, inexplicably, the planet quit warming for a decade

ClimategateIn 2009 the UEAs Climate Research Unit suffered public disclosure of thousands of emailsEmbarrassing and unprofessional, churlish and spiteful at times, intent on colluding to deceive and then destroying evidence of any collusionHacked or Leaked? Never solved

University of East Anglia

Selected Climategate Emails from Phil Jones, Head of Climate Research Unit (CRU)"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline.From 2005: And don't leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to respond to enquiries within 20 days?our does! The UK works on precedents, so the first request will test it. We also have a Data Protection Act, which I will hide behind.May 2008, Jones asked Mann: "Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise.... Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email address."

With all of this seeming subterfuge and pretense, you dont have to be Eliot Ness to wonder if there might be a conspiracy

Of Course this was a Gift to the Media

Hockey Stick and Climategate FalloutMichael Mann continues to defend his work critics continue to attack itIPCC assessments every 6 years:3rd in 2001 reflected Manns Hockey Stick graph4th in 2007 Hockey Stick gone but Hide the Decline in effect5th in 2013 more nuanced and carefully composedThe Hockey Stick and Climategate concerns may have been well-meant attempts to focus attention on a looming global concern, but likely unintentionally hurt their central cause by fueling skepticism

Richard Muller, PHD

- Professor Emeritus, Department of Physics at University of California at Berkeley- Sr. Scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab and Institute for Nuclear and Particle Astrophysics- Columnist for MITs Technology Review

If you are concerned about global warming (as I am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide may contribute (as I do) to global warming, then you should still agree that we are much better off for having broken the hockey stick. Misinformation can do real harm.

Greenhouse Gases

Mauna Loa Solar Observatory

Located at elevation 11,500 feet, the MLSO has gotten up to 6 inches of snow

Seasonal Flux Vegetative Uptake into plant mass each summerThere is no question Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere are rapidly increasing due to Anthropogenic Activities

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The Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse GassesChemicalFormulaPre-industrialConcentrationConcentrationin 2010AtmosphericLifetime (years)GlobalWarmingPotential (GWP)Carbon dioxideCO2280 ppmv385 ppmv50-2001MethaneCH4700 ppbv1866 ppbv12-1721Nitrous oxideN2O275 ppbv323 ppbv120-150310Chlorofluoro-carbons (CFCs)CFC-120537 pptv102125-152Hydrochlorofluoro-carbons (HCFCs)HCFC-220210 pptv13125PerfluorocarbonCF40110 pptv50,0006,500Sulfur hexa-fluorideSF606.84 pptv1,00023,900

Greenhouse Gas Potency Chart


Carbon Dioxide Serves as the Baseline GG


Methane is 21 Times Worse in Global Warming Potential than CO2

Greenhouse GassesChemicalFormulaPre-industrialConcentrationConcentrationin 2010AtmosphericLifetime (years)GlobalWarmingPotential (GWP)Carbon dioxideCO2280 ppmv385 ppmv50-2001MethaneCH4700 ppbv1866 ppbv12-1721Nitrous oxideN2O275 ppbv323 ppbv120-150310Chlorofluoro-carbons (CFCs)CFC-120537 pptv102125-152Hydrochlorofluoro-carbons (HCFCs)HCFC-220210 pptv13125PerfluorocarbonCF40110 pptv50,0006,500Sulphur hexa-fluorideSF606.84 pptv1,00023,900

Sulfur Hexafluoride is almost 24,000 times worse than CO2


Perfluorocarbon is so Persistent a Molecule is Believed to Last 50,000 Years


None of these Newer GGs were Present in Atmosphere 100 Years Ago

Temperature and Melting Ice

NOAA Adjustments to Temperature Data Sets Have Drawn CriticismReduced station count favoring urban sitesChange Point algorithm used to smooth dataDiscontinued Heat Island AdjustmentsFILNET: creates data to fill gaps, extrapolated from nearby stations

Remember Physicist Dr. Richard Muller?Gladly Broke the Hockey Stick Science dictates data should be openly and freely shared If a scientist does not share his data, source code or methods, never trust their work!Muller realized there was a need for trustworthy temperature dataFounded Berkley Earth in 2010

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So Is the Earth Warming?Baseline temperature is mean of a fairly flat period from 1951 - 1980

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Over the Past Century Mean Summer Temperature has Increased about 0.8 deg C (1.5 deg F)

Permafrost Melt Releases Trapped Methane from Paleo Swamps in Tundra

But What About the Decline?Dr. Muller: You cannot consider climate objectively over a window as short as 10 15 years.

Dr. Muller: When climbing stairs, if you reach a platform you might be tempted to think you are at the top until you pull back and consider the larger picture

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a Natural System but makes an Especially Analogous Parallel

There have been temporal plateaus and declines but when viewed objectively over the long term the trend has been upwards

You cannot feel 1.5 degrees of mean annual temperature difference over 100 years but the effects can be seen in critical areas

Athabaska Glacier, Canadian Rockies, in 1925 and now

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Antarctica Contains 7.2 Million cubic miles of Ice

Greenland 0.7 Million cubic miles of Ice

Arctic Sea IceWe have the ability to see, measure and monitor it now with satellites In modern times there is often open water in Summer

Sea Level Rise

During the Last Glacial Maximum, 20,000 years ago, the Laurentide Ice Sheet Blanketed much of North America with ice up to 2 miles thick.

Sea Level was 300 feet lower than today.

The areas in Orange would have been exposed.

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How Much is 3 millimeters a Year?

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Closer to Home: The City of Miami Beach (Alton Road Area during King Tides)

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Online Sea Level Rise ToolsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office for Coastal ManagementSea Level Rise Viewerhttp://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr

Climate Central (Independent NGO)Surging Seas Interactive Viewerhttp://ss2.climatecentral.org/#7/27.499/-82.463?show=property&level=10&pois=show

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Evidence of Past Extreme Climate Variation

Water Resource PlanningWater systems design against droughtsBut historical stream flow records are usually limited to < 100 yearsWe have to recognize that this is a very short representative periodPlanning only for the worse drought on record may be short sighted

BYU Professor Matt Bekker uses Dendrochronology to Reconstruct Streamflow Records for Weber River in Utah

16 year drought in the 1700s

Fallen Leaf LakeAbout 200 feet above Lake Tahoe on the Southside below Mount Tellac100 foot tall trees stand preserved underwater as evidence of several mega droughts

History Teaches Extreme Climate Variation is Not Unusual

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Texas

California Drought

Lake Shasta

Projected Climate Conditions

Projecting Future Conditions

NCA predicts we will experience more hot days

NCA predicts Florida to have drier Springs and Summers

Conclusions

Conclusions to Part 1Climate Science scandals fuel skepticismSpecial interests affect policy formulationClimate science is a young field and there is a lot we do not understand yetHowever, Mans imprint on the earth is undeniable:CO2 levels higher than anytime in the past 5M yearsCO2 levels have only risen faster than this before in conjunction with volcanic mass extinction events

Conclusions to Part 1Other GGs are also rising (CH4 ,CFCs, etc.)Earth is Currently Warming (1.5 deg. F over the past century)Sea Level is Rising due ice melt & thermal expansion of oceansThis will have Disruptive Impacts on Coastal RegionsRates of Change are SlowClimate Change cannot be seen year-to-year but must be studied over decades

ConclusionsCome back after a short break for Part 2 and I will explain some Adaptive Management Planning initiatives at the Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority

Government & Nonprofit

Track 7 morris final