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New crop varieties and climate change adaptation
Ex-ante analysis of virtual technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT
Keith Wiebe, Bernardo Creamer, Ulrich Kleinwechter, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Guy Hareau, Shahnila Islam, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Khondoker Mottaleb, Sherman Robinson, Swamikannu Nedumaran
ICAE Milan
12 August 2015
Objectives
1. Improved system of integrated biophysical and economic modeling tools
2. Stronger community of practice for scenario analysis and ex ante impact assessment
3. Improved assessments of alternative global futures
4. To inform research, investment and policy decisions in the CGIAR and its partners
1. Improved modeling tools
• Complete recoding of IMPACT version 3
• Disaggregation geographically and by commodity
• Improved water & crop models
• New data management system
• Modular framework
• Training
2. Stronger community of practice
• 13 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF• IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT,
CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish; AfricaRice and CIFOR joining
• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP
• Role of agricultural technologies
• Africa regional reports
• Analyses by CGIAR centers
• CCAFS regional studies
• AgMIP global economic assessments
Rainfed Maize (Africa)
Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato (Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
3. Improved assessments
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:biophysical and economic effects
Climate change impacts in 2050Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 SSP2 baseline values)
Source: Wiebe et al. (forthcoming, Environmental Research Letters)
Promising CGIAR technologiesCrop Center Trait Countries (Region) Final
Adoption
Maize CIMMYT Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe (M1)
30%
Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan (M2) 30%Wheat CIMMYT Drought tolerance Iran, Turkey (W1) 35%
Heat tolerance India, Pakistan (W2) 30%Drought and heat tolerance Argentina, South Africa (W3) 30%
Potato CIP Drought tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (P1)
4-40%Heat tolerance 4-40%Drought and heat tolerance 4-40%
Sorghum ICRISAT Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania (S1)
20-80%
Groundnut ICRISAT Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam (G1)
40-60%Heat tolerance 40-60%Drought and heat tolerance, high yielding
40-60%
Cassava CIAT Mealybug control methods China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand (C1)
NA
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
Baseline productivity growthBaseline productivity growth(% change from 2005 to 2050)
Without Market Effects With Market Effects
Crop Region WaterRegime
NoCC(1)
CC(2)
NoCC(3)
CC(4)
Maize M1 irrigated 68.3 60.4 48.7 46.2
rainfed 55.8 46.7 36.5 32.4
Maize M2 irrigated 85.6 46.3 66.0 33.6
rainfed 123.5 74.0 96.3 56.0
Wheat W1 irrigated 153.2 177.4 141.1 164.3
rainfed 89.1 102.2 79.0 91.3
Wheat W2 irrigated 103.9 90.6 97.5 85.0
rainfed 86.3 86.4 81.1 81.2
Wheat W3 irrigated 34.8 15.7 19.0 2.3
rainfed 15.2 -2.7 0.8 -14.7
Potato P1 irrigated 56.6 53.6 38.5 38.2
rainfed 16.1 15.5 3.1 4.3
Sorghum S1 irrigated 224.0 123.4 197.1 107.7
rainfed 88.4 70.6 72.1 57.9
Groundnut G1 irrigated 31.3 17.7 16.5 6.9
rainfed 30.7 18.8 16.5 8.3
Cassava C1 irrigated 101.6 89.7 81.9 75.5
rainfed 33.2 15.6 22.3 8.7
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
Yield impacts of promising technologies under climate change
Promising Technologies
Single Traits Stacked Traits
Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Drought + HeatTolerance
Drought + HeatTolerance
+ High Yielding
Crop Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed
Maize 10.5 23.9 27.5 13.5
Wheat 0.1 2.0 0.9 - 4.5 2.8
Potatoes 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.1 3.1 0.4
Sorghum 0.0 6.6
Groundnuts 0.2 3.7 7.1 4.1 15.6 13.8
(percent difference from 2050 CC baseline without the new technologies)
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
• Role of agricultural technologies
• Africa regional reports
• Analyses by CGIAR centers
• CCAFS regional studies
• AgMIP global economic assessments
Rainfed Maize (Africa)
Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato (Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
3. Improved assessments
4. Informing decision making
• CGIAR centers
• CGIAR Research Programs
• National partners
• Regional organizations
• International organizations and donors
The CGIAR Research Agenda
Reduced Poverty
Improved food and
nutrition security
for health
Improved natural
resource systems
and ecosystem
services
Increased
resilience of
the poor to
climate
change and
other
shocks
Enhanced
smallholder
market
access
Increased
incomes
and
employment
Increased
productivity
Improved
diets for
poor and
vulnerable
people
Improved
food safety
Improved
human and
animal
health
through
better
agricultural
practices
Natural
capital
enhanced
and
protected,
especially
from climate
change
Enhanced
benefit from
ecosystem
goods and
services
More
sustainably
managed
agro-
ecosystems
System Level Outcomes (SLOs) and Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs)
Improvements currently under way
• Livestock and fish
• Nutrition and health
• Variability
• Poverty
• Land use
• Environmental impacts
Concluding thoughts
• Biophysical and economic effects
• Complexity and transparency
• Priority setting in the CGIAR
• Institutional factors
• Scale of analysis and decision making
• Quantitative and qualitative approaches
• Expectations
