Food systems, food security and environmental change

Food Systems, Food Security

and Environmental Change

John Ingram

Food Systems Programme LeaderEnvironmental Change Institute

University of Oxford

http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1626519_1373704,00.html




Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)

… is universally applicable

… is more than food production

… is underpinned by food systems

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015

… which are set within a range of ‘environments’…

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

•Affordability•Allocation•Preference

•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

•Production•Distribution•Exchange

… ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security

“… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and

social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their

dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

The “Planetary Boundaries” Concept

Climate change

Rate of

biodiversity

loss

Nitrogen

cycle

Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries

Example

contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing

food

Processing

& Packaging

food

Distributing

& Retailing

food

Consuming

food

Climate

change

N cycle

P cycle

Fresh water

use

Biodiversity

loss

Atmos.

aerosols

Chemical

pollution

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

Example

contributions

of FSAs to PBs

Producing

food

Processing

& Packaging

food

Distributing

& Retailing

food

Consuming

food

Climate

change

GHGs,

albedo

Factory

emissions

Emissions from

transport and

cold chain

GHGs from

cooking

N cycle Eutrophicn,

GHGs

Factory effluent NOx from

transport

Waste

P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste

Fresh water

use

Irrigation Washing,

heating, cooling

Cleaning food Cooking,

cleaning

Biodiversity

loss

Deforestation,

soils, fishing

Paper/card

Metal mining

Invasive spp Consumer

choices

Atmos.

aerosols

Dust Shipping Smoke from

cooking

Chemical

pollution

Pesticides Factory effluent Transport

emissions

Cooking,

cleaning

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

?


FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

?


FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?

Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability

Poor people tend to spend relatively more of

their income on food, therefore suffer more

when food prices go up

Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in

USA, but 90% cost of chapati in India

Extreme weather also impacts food storage …

… and food distribution …

• Mycotoxins formed on plant products

in the field or during storage

• Residues of pesticides in plant

products affected by changes in

managing increased pest pressure

• Marine biotoxins in seafood following

production of phycotoxins by harmful

algal blooms

• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during

heat waves.

… and food safety.

Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

Background

But Food Securityis also a major concern

Planetary Boundary concerns are clear

Food systems are failing many:~ 1 billion people hungry

Asia & Pac

~ 650mSSA

~ 250m

Developed

~ 15m

~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”

And food systems are also ‘failing’a further ~2.5 billion of us!

Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013

Global: 33% of all adults are

overweight or obese.

Australia: 60% of all adults are

overweight or obese.

England: 19% of Yr 6 children

obese & 14% overweight.

Shanghai: Over 200,000

(14%) children are obese

“Dealing with different,

overlapping forms of

malnutrition is the ‘new

normal’.”

“Nearly every country in the

world experiences some

form of malnutrition, and no

country can take good

nutrition for granted.”

“People with good nutrition are key

to sustainable development.”

International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.

Sufficient cals

Insufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion

Sufficient cals

Sufficient nutrscurrently ~ 3 billion

Excess cals (incl. some

with insufficient nutrs)currently >2.5 billion

Insufficient cals


Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …

=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …

=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm

Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=> Consumption by Sub-populations

Sufficient cals


Sufficient cals


Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security



CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

Insufficient cals


FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

So

cia

l, P

olit

ica

l, B

usin

ess, a

nd

Bio

ph

ysic

al E

nviro

nm

en

ts

World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.

2013: 7.2 billion

2025: 8.1 billion

2050: 9.6 billion

2100: 10.9 billion

Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!

Looking ahead$6,000 – $30,000

Dietary energy supply increasesas incomes rise …

… leading to increases in consumption.(kcal/person/day)

Looking ahead ...

“unless trends are

curbed, half the global

adult population will

be overweight in 15

years time”

1

2200

- Too much - -- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

(indicative; not to scale)

2 3 4 5 76 8 109

2040

2014

2025

kcal

/per

son

/day

co

nsu

mp

tio

n

------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount --------------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---

Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ----

2000

The GHG/CC consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire

Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive

Looking ahead ...

US spent $190b on obesity-related health (2005)

Number of hungry could well rise








Sufficient cals


Sufficient cals





CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

Insufficient cals


FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

----

-N

eed S

usta

inabili

ty M

etr

ics -

----

Classic Concept Food System Concept

Social Nutritional

Environmental Environmental

Economic Enterprise

Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems

“Sustainable” ≠ “Environmental” (only)






PRODUCERS

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS


Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in

food system and world view.



CONSUMERS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nutritional Environment Enterprise

Goal

Producers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Goal

Value Chain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Goal

Consumers

1. Developing concepts of “food system ecology”integrating concepts of interconnectivity, community behaviour and spatial organisation from agroecology and human ecology

=> Food system modelling, AIM, …

2. Enhancing food system governancelinking governance research on complex adaptive systems with concepts of scale and level

=> CCAFS, Oxfam, SAFGOV, …

3. Improving resource-use efficiency and mitigating wasteassessing opportunities across the whole food system, including potential impacts of dietary change

=> CIMSANS, SUSFANS, Local Nexus Network, …

Main elements of ECI’sFood Systems Programme

1. Thinking in terms of ‘food system ecology’interconnectivity, community behaviour, spatial organisation

Plants

Animals

Environ-

ment

Agroecosystem

Pro

du

cti

on

ec

olo

gy

Ag

roe

co

log

y /

Pro

du

cti

on

ec

olo

gy

Hu

ma

n e

co

log

y

Individuals

Cultures

Institutions

Social system

‘Fo

od

sys

tem

ec

olo

gy’

2. Governance: part of dynamic food systems

“the mystery of nature”

Uncertainty about causes and effects across scales

Fuzzy, hard to grasp, persistent

Interrelated dynamic problems

“the mystery of

human behaviour”

Many actors involved in

handling, causing and

suffering the problems

Variations in valuing of,

belief in, felt needs for

solutions

Dynamic behaviour,

strategic powerplay and

learning processes

Go

vernan

ce

DRIVER

Interactions

Socioeconomic

DRIVERSChanges in:

Demographics, Economics,

Socio-political context,

Cultural context

Science & Technology

Environmental

DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric

Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality,

Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea level

‘Natural’

DRIVERS

e.g. Volcanoes

Solar cycles

Environmental feedbacks

e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity

Socioeconomic feedbacks

e.g. nutrition, business, political stability

Food

UtilisationFood

Access

Food

Availability

Food Security

3. Improving Food System Efficiency and Outcomes

ECI Food Systems

Programme

? ?





Food and Climate Justice

A preliminary study for Oxfam

Christopher Coghlan, Maliha Muzammil, John Ingram,

Friederike Otto, Rachel James and Joost Vervoort

Background and purpose

• Seriousness of extreme weather for vulnerable people

• Concern of frequency and severity of extremes will change with changing climate

• Need to consider how extreme weather events affect the food security of vulnerable groups

• Need to assess how best to prepare

Number of people affected by natural disasters 1900 – 2011

www.emdat.be


Activities

Selected 4 Case Studies based on range of recent extreme weather events and impact:• Heat wave in Russia 2010• Flooding in Pakistan 2010• Drought in East Africa 2010-11• Typhoon in the Philippines 2013

Assessed who was vulnerable, what was the impact of the event and why was it so serious

Assessed relevance of Climate Change

Drafted scenarios of impacts of even more extreme weather


Nature of Weather Event

Drought Flood Heat Wave Typhoon

Causative Link to Food Insecurity

(Who) Vulnerable Groups

Income/Assets Urban/Rural

Gender Social Divisions

(What) Impact Pathways

Crops (Food/Cash) Livestock

Work Trade & Markets

(Why) Politics, Policies and EconomicsGovernance Structures Power Structures

Response & Reconstruction Commodity Prices

Flowchart for Case Study Analysis

Overall Conclusions 1

Extreme weather events led directly to significantly higher food prices

Extreme weather events have played an important role in the instability of both short- and long-term food security

Extreme temperature and extreme rainfall events are likely to increase globally over coming decades

Scenarios for more extreme weather point to even greater impact on the more vulnerable


Overall Conclusions 2

Governments and other policy actors need to adjust to extreme weather events to help ensure food security:

craft emergency preparedness programmes

develop and encourage their populations to subscribe to insurance schemes

create funds that can act to restore livelihoods in the aftermath of extreme weather events

work with their immediate neighbours on relevant regional warning measures, infrastructure, and emergency responses.


SAFGOV

Southern African Food Systems Governance

Building a Research Community based on

Stakeholder Dialogue

Science Agencies

Policy Makers

Resource Managers

e.g.NRF,

ICSU-Africa

improved GEC/food security

science

e.g.USAID, FAO,

CARE

improved livelihoods & reduced vulnerability

e.g.farmers, range

conservation NGOs

improved food security & nat resource mgmt

e.g.SADC, national

ministers

improved food security & env

policies

How can Southern African food system activities and enterprises be improved to enhance food security and land use outcomes in the face of future challenges?

Natural Scientists

Social Scientists

e.g.• agronomy

• regional hydrology• land degradation• biodiversity loss• climate change

e.g.• markets and trade

• resource tenure• institutions• governance

• social capital

Science Questions

Development Agencies

Business Managers

e.g.purchasers,

processors, retailers

improved food system efficiency &

sustainability

Key Question and Interested Parties

Recognising that …

• Importance of private companies in food security and land use issues is growing.

• How demand from large purchasers drives production.

SAFGOV project objectives

• To build an community of research skills, closely linked to a range of stakeholders across southern Africa’s public and private organisations to study:

1. The effectiveness and adaptiveness of food system governance arrangements for food security; and

2. Food systems governance as driver of land use change and implications for associated ecosystem services.

Demand Signal Material

Material

Consumers

Value Chain

Producers

Go

vern

men

t

Civ

il So

ciet

yFood Sec Agencies

Nat Resource Agencies

Input suppliers

Health Sector

Demand Signal

SAFGOV Actor ‘Map’

Initial case study on theSouth African Maize Value Chain

• Important staple crop

• Export links, especially regionally

• Maize is used in a variety of forms: food, feed and even fuel and industrial processes

• Information is readily available

Government & Nonprofit

Food systems, food security and environmental change