USACE Climate Preparedness and Resilience Overview Part 1
Climate Change Increases the Tension Between Droughts and Floods
James C. Dalton, PE, SESChief, Engineering & Construction5th
OECD High Level Risk Forum Panel on Assessing the implications of
long term climate trends and interconnected risksWashington, DC | 8
December2015
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OutlineStrong evidence supports increased drought and heavy
precipitation in a changing climateDroughts and floods are
intimately relatedBoth droughts and floods impact global and
national securityClimate preparedness and resilience measures are
needed to reduce adverse impacts to the economy, society and the
environment
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SEVERE DROUGHTSEXTREME
PRECIPITATIONEVENTSCOASTALFLOODINGHEATWAVES
Climate Change Is Inextricably Tied To WaterKnown climate
impacts in increasing order of strong evidence as identified by the
IPCC
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SEVERE DROUGHTSEXTREME PRECIPITATIONCOASTALFLOODINGHEATWAVES
WILDFIRE
POST-FIREFLOOD/DEBRISInterconnections and Interactions
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US Climate ChangeNational Climate Assessment (2014): Droughts in
the Southwest and heat waves everywhere are projected to become
more intenseIncreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme
precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions
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US Drought
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Folsom Dam, CA, July 2011Folsom Dam, CA, January 2014Estimated
annual cost of large drought disasters in the US over 1980-2013 is
$9.4B USDEstimated 2012 drought costs to agriculture > $30B
USDNumerous other sectors (e.g., mining, utilities, industrial,
tourist) impacted by impaired operations or direct
lossesInfrastructure impacts include subsidence and foundation
settlement
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Precipitation May-June 2015 Ended Multiyear Drought
Across the Texas Region
Record rainfall in May/June: -14.4 inches in OK, - 8.8 inches in
TX. Biggest flood in 70 years 51 flood control lakes in flood pool
20 flood control lakes > flood pool
More than $13 billion in damages prevented by these
projectsUtilizing > 50% Flood Control Storage: 37 projects
Utilizing > 100% Flood Control Storage: 11 projects Cumulative
rainfall 20-27 May
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US National Security PerspectiveAmong the future trends that
will impact our national security is climate changeIn our defense
strategy, we refer to climate change as a threat multiplier because
it has the potential to exacerbate many of the challenges we are
dealing with todayfrom infectious disease to terrorism. We are
already beginning to see some of these impacts. Chuck Hagel,
Defense Secretary, Oct 2014
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Governance: Administration Policies and ProgramsClimate Action
Plan, June 2013Executive Order 13653, Preparing the United States
for the Impacts of Climate Change, November 2013Executive Order
13677, Climate-Resilient International Development, September
2014Priority Agenda: Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Americas
Natural Resources, October 2014State, Local, and Tribal Leaders
Task Force Report to the President, November 2014 Executive Order
13689Enhancing Coordination of National Efforts in the Arctic,
January 2015 Executive Order 13690, Federal Flood Risk Management
Standard, January 2015
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USACE 2014 Climate Change Adaptation PlanFocus on specific
areasInfrastructure ResilienceVulnerability
AssessmentsRisk-Informed Decision-Making for Climate
ChangeNonstationarityPortfolio of ApproachesMetrics and
EndpointsEngage in meaningful external collaborationImprove USACE
knowledge for water resources management and infrastructure
resilienceDevelop policy and guidance for Infrastructure
resilience1010
http://www.corpsclimate.us/adaptationpolicy.cfm
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Issues for ConsiderationClimate is changing and increasing
weather extremes, including droughts and floodsUSACE planning and
design account for future climate impacted water levels out 100
yearsUSACE policy and guidance require climate preparedness and
resilience to reduce future risks USACE accounts for additional
risk due to the evolving science of climate hydrology by embracing
uncertainty rather than trying to reduce it Key policy gaps include
the need for improved economic analyses that address uncertain
future conditions and lack of knowledge about best practices for
contentious climate risk management implementation measures such as
relocation International exchanges could help to develop new
economic analysis techniques and best practices11
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