Barriers to Agricultural

Technology Adoption in

Developing Countries, and

the Potential Role of

BiofortificationAlan de Brauw

Markets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy

Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and

Health (CGIAR)

How can we better nourish 9 billion?

Food availability is not a problem, nor is it likely to be

In fact, there is a great deal of untapped agricultural

potential in specific regions

Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, Cambodia

More important is what kind of food will be available

More nutritious crops need to be more available

More nutritious crops now include biofortified crops– staple

crops bred for additional micronutrients

Major Grain Availability in the World,

2012

CropTotal Production

(MMT)

Daily Calories per

Capita

Rice 720 1014

Wheat 670 865

Maize 872 1092

TOTAL 2971

Data from FAOStat; assumed population of 7 billion

Even with plenty of calorie

“availability”…

Untapped Productivity Potential in Several Parts of the

World

But at current price levels and trends there is a large

underinvestment in more nutritious foods

Untapped Productivity: Evidence on

Average Yields (t/ha)

Maize Rice Wheat

World 4.9 4.4 3.1

Africa 2.0 2.5 2.4

South Asia 2.7 3.5 2.8

Data from FAO Stat

Untapped Productivity in sub-Saharan

Africa and elsewhere

AGO

ALB ARGARM

ATG

AUS

AUT

AZE

BDI

BEL

BENBFA

BGDBGR

BHS

BIHBLR

BLZBOL

BRA

BRB

BTN

BWA

CAF

CAN

CHECHL

CHN

CIV

CMR

COG

COLCOM

CPV

CRI

CUB

CZEDEU

DJI

DMADOM

DZA

ECU

EGY

ESP

ETH

FJI

FRA

FSM

GABGEO

GHA

GMBGNB

GRC

GRD

GTMGUYHND

HRV

HTI

HUN

IDN

IND

IRN

IRQ

ISR

ITA

JAM

JOR

JPN

KAZ

KEN

KGZ

KHMKORLAO

LBN

LBYLKA

LSO

LTU

LUX

MAR

MDG

MDV MEX

MKD

MLI

MOZ

MRT

MUS

MWI

MYS

NAM

NER

NGA

NIC

NLD

NPL

NZL

PAK

PAN

PERPHL

PNG

POLPRT

PRY

ROMRUS

RWA

SAU

SDNSEN

SLE

SLV

SRB

SUR

SVKSVN

SWZ

SYR

TGO

THA

TJK

TKM

TMP

TTO

TUR

TZA

UGA

UKR

URY

USA

UZB

VCTVENVNM

VUT

YEM

ZAF

ZAR

ZMB

ZWE

89

10

11

12

Log

ari

thm

, A

vera

ge

Ma

ize

Yie

ld, 2

00

9

4 6 8 10 12Logarithm, GDP per Capita, 2009

From recent National Geographic

How to improve agricultural

technology adoption?

World Agricultural production is not close to reaching its potential

Particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa

Even without any new technology, world production could be much higher

Need is to induce farmers to switch from traditional varieties of crops to modern varieties

But how?

Question 1: Is it profitable for

farmers to grow modern varieties?

Suri (2011) built a framework allowing

heterogenous returns to growing hybrids,

finds:

Group of farmers with high potential returns,

not growing hybrids, but high cost of

obtaining seeds and fertilizer (so they don’t)

Another group with positive but lower returns

grows hybrids

Others do not grow hybrids all the time, have

essentially zero returns

New question: how can modern varieties be

made profitable for smallholder farmers?

10 Challenges for Adoption

(ATAI)

1. Lack of Information

2. Risk and Uncertainty

3. Lack of Finance

4. Labor Market Problems

5. Land Market Problems

6. Externalities

7. Coordination Failures

8. Distribution Problems

9. Lack of appropriateness

10. Distorted Prices

Technologies not Appropriate

Farmers may have different preferences than policy-makers/breeders

Policy makers may be too risk averse in approving new

Available technology may not be right for marginal land, etc.

Profits may actually be variable to higher yielding varieties of appropriate crops

Taste, cultivation attributes may also matter

Can potentially include drought/heat resistance

Intervention Ideas : Appropriate

Technologies

More Participatory Breeding? (Walker, 2008)

But lack of evidence this could be cost effective

Need to consider gender in developing interventions for appropriate technologies

Women often lack same access to improved seeds, inputs (even within households in west Africa)

Difficult to predict the gender distributional consequences of new technologies targeted to women (e.g. von Braun, 1989)

May be a need for different types of technologies as well

Average Yield Increases, Selected

Crops (1961=100)

50

100

150

200

250

300

1961

19

63

1965

1967

19

69

1971

1973

19

75

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Maize Dry Peas Vegetables Rice

Percent Changes in Cereal and Pulse

Production, and in Population, 1965-1999

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ind

ia

Pa

kis

tan

Ba

ng

lad

esh

De

ve

lop

ing

Ind

ia

Pa

kis

tan

Ba

ng

lad

esh

De

ve

lop

ing

Wo

rld

De

ve

lop

ing

Grains Pulses Population

Evidence: Shares of daily calorie

consumption by food groups

Ideal US China Bangladesh

Starchy

Staples

48 31 49 80

Legumes &

Nuts

22 5 3 4

Animal & Fish

Products

10 14 20 4

Fruits &

Vegetables

9 7 9 2

Fats & Sugars 11 43 19 10

Total Calories 2200 Too many Too many Too few

Source for “Ideal” shares: Thompson and Meerman, FAO, 2013

New Idea: Value Chains for Enhanced

Nutrition

Idea: Intervene in Value Chains to improve the

consumption of nutritious crops

Legumes; Vegetables/Fruits; Animal Source Foods

Income increases are not sufficient to improve diet

Policies sometimes promote production of grains at the

expense of healthier products

Interventions should work through prices (reductions);

income; or information

Should consider food safety as intervention is designed if

warranted

Inputs Farmer

Buyers

(Middlemen)

, Processors,

Sellers

Consumer

Value Chain

Financing

Possible

Interventions

Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition:

Example

IFPRI Project: Laiterie du Berger (LB) in St Louis, Senegal buys milk

from semi-nomadic herders in northern Senegal to produce yogurt

and a fortified yogurt product called Thiakry

Milk availability is seasonal– LB has to import powder to make Thiakry

Population producing yogurt is highly anemic

To try to regularize milk collection and improve iron status of

population, an intervention offered Thiakry for children when

specific producers met collection targets

Preliminary result: Reduced anemia by 11 percentage points but

not clear it is cost effective

New Technology: Biofortification

Idea Behind Biofortification (HarvestPlus): Breed essential micronutrients (vitamin A, iron, zinc) right into staple crops

Vitamin A Orange Sweet Potato (Mozambique, Uganda)

High Iron Beans (Rwanda)

Vitamin A Cassava (Nigeria)

High Iron Pearl Millet (India)

Vitamin A (Orange) Maize (Zambia)

Others on the way

Lack of micronutrients greatly contributes to deaths among under 5s due to malnutrition and hinders child development

HarvestPlus release varieties should…

Have enough of the target micronutrient to make a

difference in nutritional status;

Be bioavailable;

Yield at least as well as varieties farmers use, among test

populations;

Taste good (according to local populations)

Methods: HarvestPlus REU (2006-2009)

Introduced OSP to farmers in 2007 in Mozambique and

Uganda through vine distribution and sales

Accompanied by both agricultural and nutrition extension

in both countries

And marketing intervention to attempt to build

marketing chain

Impacts measured with Randomized Control Trial; baseline

and endline; detailed dietary intake study

Goal of project: Demonstrate reduction in vitamin A

deficiency in both countries

Primary Findings (2009): Vitamin A Deficiency

Mozambique

0 0.5 1

Treated

Children

Control

Children

Treated

Mothers

Control

Mothers

Endline Baseline

Uganda

0 0.5 1

Treated

Children

Control

Children

Endline Baseline

Additional Findings – “Medium Term”

Surveys

In Uganda, about half of those growing orange sweet

potato still growing them in 2011

In Mozambique, less success continuing to grow them by

2012

BUT…

Also find a statistically significant difference between

vitamin A intakes among one treatment group and the

control in 2012 (mothers and children)

Can attribute difference to OFSP consumption

Summary and Directions for Research

Major grains are actually quite available and likely will be in 2050

However, there is need for additional investment in breeding on two levels

Traditional, more nutritious crops (pulses and legumes; vegetables)

Yield gains have lagged those of major grains

Further effort on biofortified crops in future to fill in micronutrient gaps