Dining with Discretion

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Title Slide

Title Slide

Intro: Tyler (Energy & Climate); Bridget (Food Policies / Programs)Range of emotion approaching presentation: excited overwhelmed humbled excitedForgive any oversights, lack of coverage of certain topics very sizable topic area.

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Todays Talk Climate Change, SLC and the Household Footprint

Following the Food System

Psychology of Personal and Consumer Choice

Food Polices and Programs

Open Discussion / Q&AClimate is the problem that generally makes everything worse (K Hayhoe, climate scientist): economic, social and environmental spheres impacted (and FOOD)

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Todays Talk Climate Change, SLC and the Household Footprint

Following the Food System

Psychology of Personal and Consumer Choice

Food Polices and Programs

Open Discussion / Q&ALifecycle considerations in food system

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Todays Talk Climate Change, SLC and the Household Footprint

Following the Food System

Psychology of Personal and Consumer Choice

Food Polices and Programs

Open Discussion / Q&AWhy we make the choices we do, plus a new business model with the potential to disrupt everything (the Beast)

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Todays Talk Climate Change, SLC and the Household Footprint

Following the Food System

Psychology of Personal and Consumer Choice

Food Polices and Programs

Open Discussion / Q&APolicies, programs and historical context

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Todays Talk Climate Change, SLC and the Household Footprint

Following the Food System

Psychology of Personal and Consumer Choice

Food Polices and Programs

Open Discussion / Q&A

Source: NOAA National Climate AssessmentFamiliar graphic, decade-to-decade trends reveal global climate trend (climate vs. weather) climate has changed2014, not incorporated in graphic, is warmest to-date (lower atmosphere + sea surface temperatures)

GRAPHIC (Climate 101): difference between climate and weather = duration of observations. Climate science is not predicated on the temperatures today, or even this season, but rather on long stretches of data.Decade-over-decade trends are clear --- 2014 was the warmest year on record since 1880 global direct measurements (and certainly much longer than that).7Source: The Best Picture ProjectLast time the global average temperature was 1976, Saturday Night Fever wasnt even in theatres --- The last 38 years, beginning with the year Saturday Night Fever was released (1977), has been above the 20th century average.

Odds of flipping heads 38 consecutive times? Not going to happen randomly --- climate system has been transformed8Local Climate Change.Photo: Ryan Jacobs9Source: ClimateCentral.orgSimilar to global graphic displayed earlier, this colored image displays decade-to-decade warming trends over 100 year period in U.S.CLICK: relative to other states, we are warming quicker than averageBUT what about trend in most recent decades.

Source: The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends --- June 23rd, 2012http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-heat-is-on

Data from National Climatic Data Center Sites

10Source: ClimateCentral.orgWarming per-decade starting in 1970 much more rapid warming, increasing concentrations of GHG and inertia of climate system takes holdCLICK: in Utahs case, over 100 years we were in the 0.2 degree F / decade range earlier, but about 3X that in past four decades.

NOTE DATE: this graphic was published in mid-2012 and does not include data from that calendar year. 2012 remains the warmest year on record for the continental U.S., 3.26 degrees F above the 20th century average.

PERSPECTIVE: Continental U.S. only equals 1.58% of global surface total

Source: The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends --- June 23rd, 2012http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-heat-is-on

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Nonetheless, temperatures on every continent are rising decade-by-decade and Utahs temperature trend reflects this too.

Utah-specific temperatures: year-to-year fluctuations. One year to see through noise and into trends is by looking at a running meanGraphic represents a 60-month (5-year) running average of temps in Utah take this year and preceding four years to create a data point.CLICK: red arrow indicates the 20th century average temperature for Utah. Similar to global, times have changed.12

Source: National Climatic Data Center / NOAA

Local temperature data for SLC in 1981-82. CLICK: born in April 1981 so I started the graphic then.Humans exhibit spatial and temporal biases in decisions and preferences (more motivated by things happening close to us) this example closes the space and time gap for me personally.13

Source: National Climatic Data Center / NOAARather than just look at one year, I thought it would be wise to assess three years.Still a very short record and not worthy of CLIMATE tag, but still this is an exercise about what things were like in a short period of time after I was born.14Source: National Climatic Data Center / NOAA

Took those three years and combined them into a single graphic average.15Source: National Climatic Data Center / NOAA

Overlaid the most recent three years to see the difference - CLICK16Source: National Climatic Data Center / NOAA

All months are warmer now on average, except for January. January 2013 was 9.4 degrees F below long-term average and was the coldest single month for SLC since 1949! However, globally January 2013 was still in the top 10 warmest since 1880.CLICK: particularly big deviations in the May Jul time frame (5.1 F warmer each month on average)

NOTE: still need to add Feb & Mar 2015 data to graphic (presentation completed in Feb 2015)17

What are we in for going forward? Climate Central published a Future Summers tool that takes summations of emissions scenarios (multi-model ensemble) and temp changes and creates a snapshot of roughly where well be.How tool works average of daily maximum high temps for three summer months in your City CLICK.

Summer high temperatures (average of daily maximum temperatures for June, July, and August) were calculated for 1,001 U.S. cities with 1986-2005 data from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, accessed 1 July 2014. The projected summer high temperatures were calculated for these cities for the period 2081-2099, based on the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (and the other scenarios in a subsequent analysis), which is the high emissions scenario used in the IPCCs 5th Assessment Report. This is essentially a continuation of our current emissions trends through the end of the century. The temperature change was calculated through that period using a downscaled multi-model ensemble approach

Analysis by Alyson Kenward (PhD, Chemistry) and Dennis Adams-Smith (M.S., Mathematics)~ http://www.climatecentral.org/news/summer-temperatures-co2-emissions-1001-cities-16583

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Salt Lake City will be similar to Catalina Foothills (???) in 2100. Near Tucson and roughly same summer climate. But if were Tucson then whats Tucson? - CLICK19

Dont say much here. Tyler looked up St George they will actually be a little hotter (111 F in Riyadh Saudi Arabia)20

Community Footprint

Source: Salt Lake City Community Carbon InventoryCommunity carbon footprint: the challenge, the opportunity.but ultimately the graphic is a bit boring and certainly not relatable..

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UT Household FootprintFocus on the personal, more relatable, household level. 81,807 lbs CO2 = roughly 4,200 gallons of gasoline equivalent = 11.5 gallons / day = equivalent to driving from Logan to Las Vegas DAILY in a Prius (45 MPG).Graphic is from Tylers thesis research conducted 08-09

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Average Utah HouseholdVegetarian 3 Days / Week3,555 lbsOne Less RT Flight / Year2,166 lbs Caulking + Weatherstripping800 lbsInstall 5 CFLs 500 lbsFurnace Tune-up 300 lbsENERGY STAR Furnace2,400 lbs Eliminate Vampire (VCR + Stereo)272 lbs Cold Water Wash (All Clothes)1,269 lbs No Personal Vehicle 1 Day / Week3,406 lbs

Footprint ReductionsZero cost, positive health impact and positively great for the climate. Why not!? Explore psychology of food choices later in presentation (social norms, not rational decision-making, playing primary role).Dietary choices = 25%, vegetarian diet could reduce that portion of impact by nearly half.

Footprint Reductions

Average Utah HouseholdBuying 100% of food locally Replacing red meat and dairy with chicken, fish, and eggs Replacing red meat and dairy with vegetables and vegetable-based products4,998 lbs8,295 lbs933 lbsWhat you eat vs. Where it comes from: Food data based on research published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. Researchers were Weber and Matthews from Carnegie Mellon Engineering and Public Policy schools. 24Title Slide

Lifecycle

The food system includes the entire lifecycle of food from production to plate to food waste. The majority of emissions, environmental impacts happen before the product leaves the farm.

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Lifecycle Impacts

Copyright Environmental Working Group (2012)This graph gives us a great sense of how much farm practices in most products contribute more GHG emissions than all post farm gate activities combined.27

Lifecycle Impacts

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Agriculture accounts for 19-30%of anthropogenic (human caused)greenhouse gas emissions

GHG Emissions

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2014)65 percent of human-related nitrous oxide (N2O) which has 300