Sunspots and Climate Change

Effect of Sunspots on Climate

By Ted Badami

Dr. Norman Meek

Project Overview

Sunspot definition and history.

Test questions:

What is happening with the current cycle? Review of predictions made in 2007 and what has happened since? How unusual is the current cycle?

Deviation and scientific consensus. Global warming and solar activity.

Implications of recent research discoveries.

Sunspot Basics

Notable sunspot events are listed below.

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They are caused by intense magnetic activity.

What is happening with the current cycle?

It is predicted that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with about 58 sunspots. This would make it the least active cycle since solar cycle 6, which ended in the year 1823.

The current solar cycle does not appear to be generating sunspots in the manner which would be expected. Sunspots did not begin to appear immediately after the last minimum (in 2008) and although they started to reappear in late 2009, they are at significantly lower than anticipated.

Review of predictions made in 2007. Solar activity, which waxes and wanes in an 11-year cycle, will most

likely begin its next round in March 2008 and peak sometime between late 2011 and mid 2012. Science News May 5, 2007(p. 286)

…and what has happened since?

Is Cycle 24 Unusual?

YES! Leading scientists are divided on Cycle 24’s predicted behavior. Therefore, the answer must be yes.

A panel of leading scientist split the vote. The following organizations are represented: NOAA, NASA, NCAR, USAF, Swedish Institute of Space Science, Stanford University. The University of Colorado, ETK Inc., IPS Australia and the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

The April 25 Prediction Voting Panel Results 6-5

Deviation and Scientific Consensus

Global Warming and Solar Activity.

Although the Sun is the major source of energy affecting our planet, and there are many instances of corollary evidence suggesting the solar cycle does affect climate, recent research indicates no direct link.

Implications of recent research discoveries.

Variations in the Sun's total energy output (luminosity) are caused by changing dark sunspot11-year sunspot cycle.

The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years.

Small output variations has greatly advanced our understanding of solar luminosity change, and this new understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century.

Additional climate forcing by changes in the Sun's output of ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas, cannot be ruled out.

In Conclusion

Test Answers

What is happening with the current cycle? The number of sunspots are at significantly lower than anticipated.

Review of predictions made in 2007. As predicted, though slow in coming.

How unusual is the current cycle? Very unusual compared to the last 11,000 years.

Deviation and scientific consensus. Scientific consensus is like two theologians arguing religion.”

Global warming and solar activity. Not a factor in climate change.

Research Implications. The suggested mechanisms are, however, too complex to evaluate meaningfully at present.

References

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v44

3/n7108/abs/nature05072.html http://science.nasa.gov/search/?q=Implic

ations+of+recent+research+discoveries%2C+sunspots+and+climate

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/solar/600px-Temp-sunspot-c

http://www.space.com/8587-sun-strange-behavior-baffles-astronomers.htmlo2.svg.png