Scaling-up CSA in Malawi,

successes, challenges,

opportunitiesGeorge Phiri

Project Technical CoordinatorFAO Malawi

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Recent Climate Trends in Malawi

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• Malawi particularly prone to adverse climate hazards: frequent and prolonged dry spells, seasonal droughts, intense rainfall, riverine floods, and flash floods.

• Droughts and floods increased in frequency, intensity, and magnitude over the past 20 years.

• Significant increasing trends in the frequency of hot days and nights in all seasons.

• Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.0°C by the 2060’s, and by 1.5 to 5.0°C by the 2090s.

• All models consistently project increases in the proportion of rainfall that falls in heavy events in the annual average of up to 19% by the 2090s.

Agriculture and Climate Change in Malawi

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• Agriculture (which is mainly rain-fed) is central to Malawi’s economy and livelihoods and will continue to be fundamental for sustainable development in the country.

• In the last 5 years, agriculture has accounted for 35% of GDP, 85% of the labour force and 83% of foreign exchange earnings.

• Agriculture is the sector that will be most severely impacted by climate change (NAPA).

• Over 50 percent of the population lives below the poverty line and one in five people is chronically food insecure.

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE

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• Agriculture: key sector to address challenges of food security under climate change (sink and source)

• Ag growth effective means of poverty reduction

• Projected CC impacts entail an urgent need for the adaptation of the agriculture sector

• Mitigation can come through synergistic measures and be an additional source of finance

CSA is an approach aimed at building agricultural development policies, strategies and investments to increase food security with needed adaptation, capturing financial benefits from potential mitigation co-benefits

Policies, Efforts, Strategies

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• Good awareness of the challenges posed by climate change Inclusion of CC within key priority areas of

Malawi Growth Development Strategy Aswap NAPA On going discourse to develop National

Adaptation Plans, especially for the Ag sector On going discourse to formulate the National

Agriculture Policy

• CAADP• NCCP IP

The CSA project aims building evidence-based agricultural development strategies, policies and investment frameworks to:

1. sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes,

2. build resilience and the capacity of agricultural and food systems to adapt to climate change, and

3. seek opportunities to reduce and remove GHGs compatibly with their national food security and development goals.

CSA PROJECT OVERVIEW

Approach of the CSA project in Malawi

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is NOT about…

• Providing one-size-fits-all solutions for agricultural technology

or practice for the whole world, region, country or sub-national

level;

• Analyzing GHG emissions reductions potentials as a single

driver

It IS about…

• Providing a context-specific approach to agricultural development;

• Based on specific evidences and trends found in Malawi; and

• Based on the project methodology which makes a link between

research findings, policy making and capacity development

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Develop a policy environment & agricultural investments to improve food security and provide resilience under climate uncertainty

NEEDS RESEARCH COMPONENT

What are the barriers to adoption of CSA practices?

Legal & Institutional Appraisal: mapping institutional relationships and identifying constraints

What are the synergies and tradeoffs between food security, adaptation and mitigation from agricultural practices?

POLICY SUPPORT COMPONENT

Identifying where policy coordination at the national level is needed and draw

recommendations on how to do it

Facilitating national participation/inputs to climate and agriculture international

policy process

Project Framework

EvidenceBase

Strategic Framework & Policy Advice

OUTPUTS

Investment proposals

Capacity Building

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What are the policy levers to facilitate adoption and what will they cost?

What is special about the CSA Project?Three aspects stand out:

• The approach taken brings together, in a coherent framework, economics, institutional analysis, and policy to understand barriers to the adoption of practices;

• Matches spatial climate data and household survey data to examine how climate affects economic decisions by households; and

• Analyses are structured to be useful in the development of country-owned investment proposals, as well as identifying and building mechanisms to link to financing sources- both Climate Change and Agriculture

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1. Evidence: Quantitative and qualitative analyses of primary and secondary data at household and community level combined with institutional and geo-referenced climate data to:a) assess the situation on food security, adaptation and

potential mitigation;b) Identify the best CSA options: through the CBA in 4 districts

(Balaka, Ntcheu, Kasungu and Mzimba) – 1,433 fields by 524 HH over 11 EPAs;

c) Understand barriers to CSA adoption using World Bank LSMS-ISA data;

d) Risk management analysis – identification of risk reducing tools; and

e) Identify enabling factors.

Activities 1/3: Creating a base of evidence

2. Project coordination unit/core team: keeping a dialogue with members from MoAIWD, and other stakeholders such as NGOs, university, civil society and FAO

3. Policy and institutional mapping: to better understand policy formulation, linkages and potential gaps or conflict/contradictions

4. Institutional data collection: to better understand influence of institutions (i.e. cooperatives, access to credit, subsidies, land tenure etc) in adopting CSA vs conventional agriculture.

5. Supporting country’s policy formulation through policy dialogue and analysis

Activities 2/3: Policy component

6. Coordination between climate change and agricultural policy (e.g. enhancing climate change and agricultural policy alignment in support of CSA, Supporting capacity to link international and national policy issues)

7. Capacity development: • Supporting MSc students, a PhD student and mentoring• Implement training activities to agricultural frontline staff• Support policy makers’ participation to UNFCCC

negotiations8. Collaboration with CCAFS: using scenarios to improve CSA

planning9. Developing a strategic framework for investment in CSA in

Malawi

Activities 3/3: Capacity building and overarching

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Some results

Adoption of potential CSA measures on all plots – in %

Adoption of Potential CSA Measures

Climatic variables, access to rural institutions and social capital play an important role in adoption of most practices.

► There is no one strategy for supporting adoption – it depends on which techniques are the focus.

► Exposures to climate variability and delayed onset increases use of SLM measures, but reduces the use inorganic fertilizer.

► Collective action and institutions can be key in determining which practices are selected

► Better tenure security increases the use of SLM strategies and reduces inorganic fertilizer and improved seed.

Implications for targeting and overcoming barriers to adoption at the household or systemic levels.

Summary of Findings on Adoption from LSMS

FROM CBA: SLM Adoption by AEZ and Technology

• Low diffusion of SLM in the sample (all crops): 84% Tillage systems (conventional), only 16% MSD systems.

• Within the sample there is no significant difference in terms of SLM adoption by Agro ecological zone (due to projects & sampling bias);

• Most farmers rely on conventional agriculture but test SLM technologies on some fields [mainly on Maize: MSD =39%].

• High heterogeneity of SLM technology packages: experimenting different combinations of SLM principles

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Pe

rcen

tage

SLM adoption - overall sample

CA CF

SWC Other

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Pe

rcen

tage

Cool dry Cool moist Cool wet

SLM adoption by AEZ

Till systems MSD systems

Maize Unit Till

Yield kg/ha 2,710 *** 1,637

Gross revenue USD/ha 872 *** 534

Gross margin (gross revenue - cash input costs) USD/ha 529 *** 296

Net income (gross margins - labor costs) USD/ha 274 *** 85

Labor productivity (yield/total labor) kg/day 34 *** 23

Total variable costs USD/ha 601 *** 446

T-test on the equality of means: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

MSD

• MSD showed higher yields than conventional soil management. Difference more significant in dry areas [yield effects disappear in moist and humid areas once controlling for fertilizer inputs]

• MSD has higher variable costs than conventional soil management.

• Within conventional soil management, applying agroforestry and/or swc seems to provide improve yields

Economic Performance: MSD vs. Till

Key findings of CBA analysis

• MSD systems are more profitable for food crops (maize) than conventional tillage systems..

• MSD is more profitable than conventional soil management in dry areas.

• However, higher production costs of MSD technologies may hinder diffusion among smallholders’ and impede adoption

• Comparatively, irrigation would allow farmers to grow high value crops, which would be a much better option. However, irrigation requires high investments, and is questionable for smallholders with limited to markets for high value crops .

• SLM would therefore represent a good alternative option as it requires fewer investments. However incentives to overcome the obstacles to adoption are needed.

• Targeting matters: MSD systems are a profitable CSA

investment in drier areas with greater rainfall variability. In

such areas, farmers implementing MSD systems could have

higher incomes than under conventional systems (food

security and adaptation)

• Barriers to adoption: Higher production costs of MSD in

comparison with conventional systems may require

incentives at smallholders’ level.

• GHG mitigation benefits: In humid areas, with lower

benefits from SLM adoption, SLM can be coupled with

higher carbon sequestration coefficients for financing.

Implications for scaling up

Risk analysis: Climate is a determinant of household vulnerability in Malawi

• Consumption per capita is lower in environments with greater

long term climate variability

• Higher long term mean rainfall is associated with higher per

capita consumption and lower vulnerability to poverty.

• The greater the deviation from long term mean rainfall pattern

experienced in the last season, the more consumption is

reduced and vulnerability to poverty increased.

• Other significant variables for reducing vulnerability are

higher household wealth, and access to institutions such as

extension, credit, fertilizer subsidies and social safety nets.

Key findings and implications from risk ► For extreme events: important to have policies & institutions to support

effective coordination and cooperation for adoption of SLM to increase resilience

► For “Marginal” changes in climate: policy options need to be tailored to agro-ecological conditions, and better information on changes in climate variability is crucial in reducing losses through changes in cropping decisions and SLM practices

► Policies and institutions play an important role in determining levels diversification, and their outcome & costs depends on information available to framers

► Income diversification opportunities should be prioritized, since it has the strongest impacts on reducing vulnerability to poverty

• Among institutions, access to extension and fertilizer subsidies have the strongest positive impacts on income diversification

• Investments into enabling actions to support CSA are needed.

• There are several activities planned under the Agriculture Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp) that have high CSA potential.

• The second implementation phase of the ASWAp, as well as the launch of the National Climate Change Investment Plan provides a good basis for guiding investments. It is important to ensure their coordination.

• Re-orienting existing and planned agricultural finance, as well as tapping climate financing sources including the GEF and Green Climate Fund are 3 main strategies for financing up-scaled CSA in Malawi.

• MoAIWD is embarking on reform and refocussing of the main components of agricultural development activities in Malawi. Linking these reforms to CSA and climate finance offers an excellent opportunity for effectively realizing these objectives.

Conclusions

Thank you

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