The Television Will Be Revolutionized

Opportunities and Challenges of the Post-Network Era

Amanda D. Lotz, PhDAssociate Professor

Department of Communication StudiesUniversity of Michigan

People Were Talking About Television

“The End of TV as we Know it”January 7, 2000

“The Death of Television”October 17, 2005

“The End of TV (as you know it)”November 21, 2005

“The End of Television as We Know It” March 27, 2006”

But…in 2013 alone…•Veronica Mars creator Rob Thomas raises $5 million for the production of a Veronica Mars movie through Kickstarter

•You Tube and Hulu offer an extensive range of television •Netflix begins competing with original series House of Cards and a new season of Arrested Development•Amazon commissioned 14 pilots, developing 5 to series for Instant Video Streaming service•CBS’s NCAA March Madness generated 45 million steams AND had highest linear viewing in 19 years

Has anyone noticed television didn’t die?

•Instead, it is reinventing itself•The television we’ve known was the television possible in the analog era•Digital technologies enable a “post-network era”

US Television’s Institutional History: Three Eras

:15 and :30 advertisments in “magazine” format, sold in “upfront” market

The Network Era (1952 – mid 80s)

Just a TV set, maybe an antenna

Production

Studios produce for monopsony of 3 network buyers

Limited Content through bottleneck of 3 networks

Financing

Audience Measureme

nt

Audimeters, diaries, sampling

Technology Distribution

Financing

Same, plus subscription and experiments with alternatives to :30 ads

Multi-Channel Transition (Mid 80s – Mid 2000s )

VCR, Remote Control, Analog Cable

Production

Fin-Syn, surge of independents, conglomeration, co-production, HD

Distribution Cable increases possible outlets but still a bottleneck

Audience Measureme

nt

People Meters, Sampling

Technology

Production Financing

Multiple Models - :30, placement, integration, branded entertainment …

The Post-Network Era (Mid 2000s -)

DVR, VOD, portable devices, mobile phones, Slingbox, digital cable, networked DVRs, iPads

Multiple financing norms, independent funding, 3D

DistributionContent anytime, anywhere. Hulu, Netflix streaming, MVPD app availability

Audience Measureme

nt

People Meters, Census Measurement

Technology

Key Developments in Television Technology

Key Developments in Television Production

Economics of production

permanently disrupted,

changes texts in various ways

Labor model and norms (program

yr.) in crisis

Non-linear and cluttered program

environment requires new strategies in promotion

Skyrocketing production costs

for dramas destroy

independents

New models in reality and cable

Key Developments in Television Distribution

Key Developments in Television Advertising

Multiplicity of advertising methods supports

different types of content

Not all advertisers have

the same expectation

“Change the way you measure

America’s cultural consumption…and

you change America’s culture

business.”

(Jon Gertner)

Key Developments in Television Audience Measurement

Why Do Industrial Norms and Conditions Matter?

They produce certain textual outcomes The norms of the network era made

certain kinds of programming more likely

The erosion of those norms and establishment of new ones changes the range of textual possibility

And, who makes the most money

Questions of the Post-Network Era

Recent Developments

Netflix Recommendation

algorithm Interface

HBO GO

Over-the-top (OTT) anxiety

MVPD VOD (Xfinity)

Lessons of the Last Five Years

Queuing

What’s Next? Television Without Middlemen

Fundamental challenge to the future evolution of television is the disjuncture between an economic model built in the network era and distribution practices characteristic

of post-network technological possibilities

Bundling is not a post-

network strategy

Will It Be a Post-Channel Era?

How will non-linear programming be organized? Folders

Queues

Disaggregating Music

Album Sales: Peaked in 2000 Almost exclusively downloads since 2004

Disaggregating Print News

Disaggregating Television?

Television Futures

Prized content Live sports and

contests Linear viewing

Television isn’t dying

…it is at the dawn of a new age