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Engineering The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management Institute of Transport Studies (Monash) @AlexaDelbosc Millennials on the move: Life transitions and Australian millennials Dr. Alexa Delbosc Institute of Transport Studies Department of Civil Engineering Monash University 27 January 2016 ITS Leeds Michiganautolaw.com

Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

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Page 1: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

Engineering

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Millennials on the move: Life transitions and

Australian millennials

Dr. Alexa Delbosc

Institute of Transport Studies

Department of Civil Engineering

Monash University

27 January 2016

ITS Leeds

Michiganautolaw.com

Page 2: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

Social psychology background

Travel behavior, public transport, transport and social exclusion,

transport and well-being

About me

2

Page 3: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

Research context

My research is from Australia

This discussion is about developed countries’ context

3

Page 4: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Outline

1. Auto-mobility across the life course

2. What’s going on with millennials?

3. Final thoughts

4

Page 5: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Household car ownership follows a ‘life

cycle effect’

5

Source: Adapted from (Dargay and Vythoulkas 1999)

Page 6: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Children are heavily dependent on adults

for mobility

6

theguardian.com

Page 7: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Adolescent travel needs become increasingly

complex and independent

Age GroupParental

Dependence

Personal

Independence Travel Needs

Pre-school Very high

Very low

Very low

Very high

Low

High

Upper primary

Lower secondary (pre-teen)

Upper secondary (mid-teen)

16+ (learner permit)

18+ (driving license)

7

Source: Graham Currie (2007) Young Australians: No Way to Go

Page 8: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

For many young people, driving is the

ultimate way to express that independence

8

Source: keys2drive.com.auntnews.com.au

Page 9: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

In young adulthood, important life decisions are

still fluid

How to get there

Where to

work?

Where to live?

9

Page 10: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

‘Adult’ life transitions are strongly

associated with car ownership and use

10

Page 11: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

In retirement, work travel reduces but

travel habits are strongly entrenched

11

Manulifebank.ca

Page 12: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Driving cessation among the elderly strongly

associated with negative well-being

12

Pinterest.com

Page 13: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Will millennials follow this same trajectory?

13

Source: Klein & Smart, “Millennials and car ownership: fewer cars, less money” 2016 TRB

Annual Meeting 16-5879

Ratio of cars to adults in family by birth cohort and age (USA)

Page 14: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Outline

1. Auto-mobility across the life course

2. What’s going on with millennials?

3. Final thoughts

14

Page 15: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Why are we interested in millennials?

15

www.guidespark.com

Page 16: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

They’re Australia’s most numerous generation

16

Gen Y (16 to 33) Boomers (47 to 65)

Page 17: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

They’re on the cusp of settling into

transport habits

17

Source: visualphotos.com

Younger millennials Older millennials

Page 18: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

And they’re becoming less likely to get a driving

license (in Victoria)…

18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Percent of Victorians with a driving license (P or full)

Under 25

25+

Source: VicRoads and ABS

Page 19: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

…and in much of the developed world

19

Source: Delbosc & Currie (2013)

Causes of youth licensing decline: a

synthesis of evidence

Page 20: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Why are millennials changing their travel?

Different attitudes?

Smartphones and social media?

Introduction of graduated licensing?

Prefer city living and public transport?

Cars too expensive?

Changes in life stage?

20

Page 21: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Attitudes toward cars have changed

Cars have always been a symbol of

independence and freedom

To baby boomers they were a status

symbol

To millennials they’re a responsibility

or even burden

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[Owning a car] is a part of growing up and

being independent I guess. Learning to do

things yourself. I'm not going to have my

parents paying for things for the rest of my

life am I? Get a job, pay for it yourself the

hard way. (18 year old interviewee)

How baby boomers see cars

How millennials see cars

Page 22: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Aren’t millennials all on smartphones?

Why do they need cars?

Virtual contact complements face-to-face

contact

– A way to organise meet ups

– Keep in touch with past friends

It does not replace face-to-face contact

– Electronic-only bonds are tenuous

22

[Social networking] does not replace the essential

bonding through face to face contact, and I do feel that

because I do not have my own transport - my bonds with

previous friends are not as strong as it [sic] used to be.

(19 year old interviewee)

Page 23: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Graduated licensing surely contributes

But declines began before graduated licensing was implemented

Happening in countries without graduated licensing (UK*)

23

Page 24: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Licensing restrictions likely short-term barrier

24

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Reasons w

hy y

oung p

ers

on

doesn’t y

et

have a

lic

ense

No intent to get learner's permit

Intend to get permit

Delbosc, A. and Currie, G. (2014) 'Impact of Attitudes and Life Stage on Decline in Rates of Driver's License

Acquisition by Young People in Melbourne, Australia’. Transportation Research Record 2452: 62-70

Page 25: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Millennials are moving into cities and using

different travel modes*

25

Carsharing.org

www.kibi.org

Proportion of population aged 20 to 29

Page 26: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

…although not in America

“We find no evidence that

Americans are using public

transportation as a

substitute for driving” – King,

Manville & Smart paper 16-5403 2016

TRB Annual Meeting

26

Brown et al 2016 TRB Annual

Meeting paper 16-5472

Page 27: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Affordability a complex factor

Declines began before the economic recession

Affordability involves both incomes and cost of motoring

Overall cost of motoring has declined compared to inflation

Youth income is changing (see next point)

May be a change in priority; rather spend money on other things

27

www.pluscorp.com.au

Page 28: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Big changes in life stage of millennials

Cohabitation, marriage and child-rearing are taking place later

Increase in tertiary study

Move from full-time to part-time employment

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Percent of Australians aged 15 to 24 in employment

Full-time employment

Part-time employment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2003

2005

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Young Australians attending educational institution

Aged 20 to 24

Aged 25 to 34

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Page 29: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

‘Adult’ life stage strongly associate with

driver license and auto-mobility

-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Income Q1 (ref)

Income Q2

Income Q3

Income Q4

Full-time work (ref)

Part-time work

Secondary school

Tertiary studies

Unemployed

Not in workforce

Has own children

Lives with parents

Female

Age

Regression weights of model predicting driver licensing, age 18-30

29

Delbosc, A. and Currie, G. (2014) 'Changing demographics and young adult driver license decline in Melbourne, Australia

(1994-2009)', Transportation 41(3):529-542

Page 30: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Delay in ‘adult’ life stage reduces need for

and ability to pay for a car

30

Hometrustmortgageloansatlantageorgia.com

Who needs a car? We need a car!

Huffingtonpost.com

Page 31: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Outline

1. Peak car

2. Peak car license

3. Final thoughts

31

Page 32: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Is there any hope for millennials?

32

www.theprisma.co.uk

Page 33: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Strong signs that millennials will become

car-dependent as they age

33

United States driver licensing rate Victorian driver licensing rate

Age 18

Age 24

Age 20

Age 25

Source: Alexa Delbosc (in press) Delay or Forgo? A Closer Look at Youth Driver Licensing Trends

in the United States and Australia, Transportation

Page 34: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

“…differences in time use between millennials and the prior

generation are likely to fade with age” – Garikapati et al. paper 16-6024

TRB 2016 Annual Meeting

“We caution planners to temper their enthusiasm about “peak car,”

as this may largely be a manifestation of economic factors that could

reverse in coming years.” – Klein & Smart paper 16-5879 TRB 2016

Annual Meeting

“…we find no evidence in the data analyzed here that [millennial’s

use of transit] reflect[s] a waxing embrace of the mode that may be

expected to persist as teens and young adults age” – Brown et al.

paper 16-5472 TRB 2016 Annual Meeting

34

Page 35: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Strong links between neighbourhood type

and mode

35

Voulgaris et al 2016 TRB

Annual Meeting paper 16-2942

“Old Urban” Neighbourhood

Only 4% of US population

and census tracts!

Mode use by neighbourhood type

Page 36: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Can we demonstrate the impacts of transit and

land use through cross-national comparisons?

36

Source: NHTS

(USA), VATS &

VISTA (Melbourne)

Watch this space!

Page 37: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Meanwhile, back in Australia…

Just awarded three years of government fellowship support (DECRA)

Longitudinal panel study of millennials

37

Page 38: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Use a longitudinal survey to study mobility

transitions

38

Page 39: Millennials on the move - life transitions and Australian millennials

The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)

@AlexaDelbosc

Thank you

39

[email protected]

http://users.monash.edu.au/~delbosc/

@AlexaDelbosc

Find us on LinkedIn:

http://www.linkedin.com/groups?home=&gid

=4384724