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How to think beyond the status quo to deal with the strategic uncertainty Presentation to Tertiary Education Management Conference, August, 2011.
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Thinking beyond the status-quoto deal with strategic uncertainty
Maree ConwayThinking Futures
Tertiary Education Management Conference August 2011
#temc11
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bologna-vista02.jpg
http://catherinescareercorner.com/2011/07/26/12-reasons-why-employees-resist-change-in-the-workplace
http://eqawu.wordpress.com/2010/06/25/the-status-quo-trap/
Improvement action identified/changes to
plans identified
Making VU 2016: A Statement of
PurposeStrategic vision and objectives
University Priorities2008-2010
Outcomes & Strategies to implement
Unit Strategic Plans2008-2010
Faculties, Schools& Service areas
Implementation of University Priority strategies
Internal & External Planning Inputs
Ongoing environmental scanning
•Educational & societal trends•Government policy drivers•Legislation•University cross-sectoral strategies•Other University Plans (eg OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc)
SPDP: individual Staff Plans
Quality Improvement Reviews (QIRs)
Approval of operational plansReview of current year’s
performance
Reviewed each year in first half
of year
Reviewed and updated in
August/September; finalised following QIRs in November
Held in November each year
University Budget ProcessIterative process to align
budgets and plansBudget sign-off at end
SeptemberQuarterly Budget Reviews
Department Plans
Current until 2016
QIR Inputs Organisational Unit QIR
PortfoliosFaculty Review OutcomesAnnual Course Reporting
Course ReviewSubject Evaluation Outcomes
AQTF outcomesAUQA Follow up
Think tomorrow is going to be more of today
Can’t cope with the unexpected
Usually don’t explorelong term alternative futures
Prefer quantitative over qualitative information
Don’t challenge assumptions
Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs, hopes and fears about the future
http://eqawu.wordpress.com/2010/06/25/the-status-quo-trap/
Strategic Thinking
What might happen in the future?
Generating Options
Strategic Decision Making
Where will go in the future?Making Decisions
Strategic Planning
What will we do today?Taking Action
Environmental Scanning
What can we see today? Seeking Information
Environmental Scanning
Environmental Scanning
Provides the raw information to inform your
strategic thinking. Both internal and
external to your organisation.
Strategic Thinking 1: Analysing
Looking for patterns and themes relevant for your organisation.
Trend analysis Emerging Issues
Analysis Forecasting Delphi
Strategic Thinking 2: Interpreting
System structure and dynamics
What’s driving the trends? And what does it mean for us?
How will they develop?
Futures Wheel Cross Impact Analysis Causal Layered Analysis
Strategic Thinking 3: Prospecting
How will the trends evolve over the next 10-20 years?
How might we respond? What are our options?
Scenario planning Visioning Backcasting
Interior Exterior
Individual
Collective
Strategic Thinking
What might happen in the future?
Generating Options
Strategic Decision Making
Where will go in the future?Making Decisions
Strategic Planning
What will we do today?Taking Action
Environmental Scanning
What can we see today? Seeking Information
Reactive Futures Questions Proactive Futures Questions
What has happened? What is happening?
What caused it to happen? What is driving the trends that will influence how this might evolve over time?
What are alternative possible outcomes?
How do we respond? How might we respond?
What would be the long term consequences of action we take today?
What will we do? What will we do?
After the event Anticipating the event
Recognise that the way we do things around here is no longer useful
Re-label your reactions Reflect on your expectations and
values Refocus your behaviour Respond with repetition Revalue your choices in real time
Recognise that the way we do things around here is no longer useful
Re-label your reactions Reflect on your expectations and
values Refocus your behaviour Respond with repetition Revalue your choices in real time
Our assumptions encase us in the past
Strategic Thinking
What might happen in the future?
Generating Options
Strategic Decision Making
Where will go in the future?Making Decisions
Strategic Planning
What will we do today?Taking Action
Environmental Scanning
What can we see today? Seeking Information
Interior Exterior
Individual
Collective
Seek to understand the strategic uncertainty in the external environment.
Provide spaces, time, information and opportunities for staff to be involved in strategy
Support staff to change the way they think about strategy uncertainty
Build a futures focused culture by changing “the way we do things around here”
Contact Details
Maree Conwayhttp://www.thinkingfutures.net
Tel: 03 9016 9506Mobile: 0425 770 181
Skype: mkconway1More information and
Building Strategic Futures Guides:
Getting Started with FuturesEnvironmental Scanning
http://thinkingfutures.net
