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1 Final Research Report December 22, 2014

Stockton Deliverable 2: Final Research (Report)

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Final Research Report

December 22, 2014

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Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 4

Place .............................................................................................................................................................. 8

Urban Sprawl ............................................................................................................................................ 8

Neighborhoods .......................................................................................................................................... 9

Land Use ................................................................................................................................................. 10

Population Density .................................................................................................................................. 11

Urban barriers ......................................................................................................................................... 12

Movement ................................................................................................................................................... 25

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 25

Social Equity ........................................................................................................................................... 28

San Joaquin Regional Transit District .................................................................................................... 29

Safe Routes to School ............................................................................................................................. 31

Bicycling Improvements ......................................................................................................................... 32

Related policies ....................................................................................................................................... 33

Target Goals ............................................................................................................................................ 34

Environment ................................................................................................................................................ 34

Climate .................................................................................................................................................... 35

Climate Action Plan ................................................................................................................................ 35

Background ......................................................................................................................................... 35

Current Trajectory - Business As Usual ............................................................................................. 35

Emissions Inventory: Major Sources .................................................................................................. 36

Reduction Measures ............................................................................................................................ 38

Implementation ................................................................................................................................... 41

Air Pollution............................................................................................................................................ 45

Flooding .................................................................................................................................................. 47

SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................... 49

Target Goals ............................................................................................................................................ 50

Health + Safety ........................................................................................................................................... 51

Crime ...................................................................................................................................................... 51

Gangs ...................................................................................................................................................... 52

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Marshall Plan .......................................................................................................................................... 53

Community Voices ................................................................................................................................. 55

Target Goals ............................................................................................................................................ 56

Community ................................................................................................................................................. 57

Key Demographics .................................................................................................................................. 57

Racial Breakdown ............................................................................................................................... 57

Education Levels ................................................................................................................................. 58

Family Structures ................................................................................................................................ 58

Unemployment and Poverty................................................................................................................ 59

School Standings ................................................................................................................................. 59

A Walk Down Airport Way: The Big Picture ..................................................................................... 61

Education ................................................................................................................................................ 62

Supplementary Educational Programs ................................................................................................ 62

Potential for Future Programs ............................................................................................................. 64

Target Goals ............................................................................................................................................ 66

Housing ....................................................................................................................................................... 67

Homeownership ...................................................................................................................................... 67

Available and Vacant Housing ............................................................................................................... 68

Median value of housing ......................................................................................................................... 71

Foreclosures ........................................................................................................................................ 75

Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 76

Target Goals ............................................................................................................................................ 76

Economic Development .............................................................................................................................. 77

PESTEL analysis .................................................................................................................................... 77

City Budget Overview ............................................................................................................................ 81

The 5 Industry Strategy - A Development Proposal ............................................................................... 83

SWOT Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 85

Goals ....................................................................................................................................................... 85

Goal 1 .................................................................................................................................................. 85

Goal 2 .................................................................................................................................................. 86

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Tables

Table 1: Place Target Goals ..................................................................................................................... 24

Table 2: Movement Target Goals ............................................................................................................ 34

Table 3: List of GHG Reduction Measures ................................................................................................ 39

Table 4: GHG Emissions reductions by measure category ......................................................................... 40

Table 5: Environmental Target Goals .................................................................................................... 50

Table 6: Violent crimes in Stockton: rate of crime per 100000 people ...................................................... 51

Table 7:Property Crimes in Stockton, rate of crimes/100000 people ......................................................... 51

Table 8: Health and Safety Target Goals ................................................................................................ 56

Table 9: Academic Progress Index (API) Rankings *The Growth API summarizes a school's, an Local

Educational Agency (LEA's), or the state's performance on the 2013 Standardized Testing and Reporting

(STAR) Program and 2013 California High School Exit Examination (CAHSEE) tests. The API is on a

scale of 200 to 1000. ................................................................................................................................... 60

Table 10: : High School Dropout Rates *The City of Stockton Dropout Rates are derived from data

concluding that 75.7% of the Stockton population 25 years and older have a High School or higher

education. .................................................................................................................................................... 60

Table 11: Academic Milestones Among Socio‐economically Disadvantaged Students ............................ 60

Table 12: Math Scores of STEP Up Students .............................................................................................. 63

Table 13: Community Target Goals ........................................................................................................ 66

Table 14: Homeownership by ethnicity ...................................................................................................... 67

Table 15 ...................................................................................................................................................... 68

Table 16 ...................................................................................................................................................... 68

Table 17: Housing Target Goals .............................................................................................................. 76

Table 18 ...................................................................................................................................................... 86

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Executive Summary

We are the Global Urban Development Program: Stockton team, an international partnership of

undergraduate and graduate students who hail from all corners of the globe. Our goal is to develop

thoughtful and strategic solutions to revitalize South Stockton in partnership with the City of Stockton

Planning Commission and the Reinvent South Stockton Coalition.

Our project is structured into four phases: two phases of Research and two of Design. Our first phase was

the development of a comprehensive understanding of Stockton’s current conditions as a whole city and

identified areas of strength, opportunities for development, weaknesses, and threats to progress. This

analysis, along with all of our preliminary research was compiled into our first deliverable, available here.

This stage of the research project focused on narrowing and refining our focus to South Stockton. We

identified target goals based on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats identified in our

preliminary research. These target goals are quantifiable measures of progress upon which the city can

measure the success of the future design proposals in the short and long-term. We sorted our goals into

categories based on the existing framework of the General Plan drafted by the Stockton Planning

Commission and the focus areas from the South Stockton Promise Zone Application. The categories are

as follows:

○ Place: Land use and building development.

○ Movement: Streets, traffic, and transport.

○ Environment: Natural features and natural disaster concerns.

○ Health and Safety: Civic services (fire, police, etc), health care, and food sources.

○ Youth and Education: Schools and demographics of the area.

○ Housing: Homeownership, foreclosures, and property value.

○ Economic Development: Industry and opportunity.

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Portfolio of Target Goals

Category Purpose Current Status Target Goal

Place Reduce vacant lots along airport way

(#)

19 0

Movement Reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT)

per capita 2005: 28.09 daily VMT

per capita 2040: 26.71 daily VMT per

capita

Increase number of bicycle

commuters 2009: 6339 commuters

in San Joaquin County 2020: 8000 commuters in

SJC

Increase ridership of public transit Fiscal Year 2013:

4,300,292 passengers 2018 Fiscal Year: 5,385,442

passengers

Add bike lanes to Airport Way No lanes 2020: 4.12 Class 2 Miles

from E. Miner Avenue to

the Stockton Airport

Reduce time to reach market 8 minutes by car from

Airport Way & 8th

Street to Food 4 Less

2020: <5 minute by car

from south Stockton to

Grocery store along vacant

lot

Environment Reduce emissions 10% from 2005

levels by 2020 8.1 tons/capita 10.7 tons/capita

Meet CA PM 2.5 standards 6 exceedance days

(2012) 0 exceedance days

Meet CA Ozone Standards 5 exceedance days

(2014) 0 exceedance days

Health &

Safety

Reduce yearly number of

homicides/100000 people 857.6 214

Reduce yearly number of property

crimes/100000 people 582.6 267

Community Raise Academic Progress Index to

meet CA Average All: 713 Elem: 704

Middle: 779.5

High: 656.3

Raise by (points): All: 77 Elem: 107

Middle: 20.5

High: 100.7

Increase Graduate Rates to meet CA

Average Stockton: 75.7% CA: 88.6%

Increase by 12.9%

Increase School Sponsored After

School Programs Available Programs:

STEP Up and Head

Start

Available Programs: Start

program similar to Lodi

Bridge

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STEP Up: 6 schools

STEP Up: 12 schools by

2016

Agricultural Education through

Community Gardens n/a Establish a community

garden and partner with

schools using one of the

empty lots

Increase Diversity of Enrichment - STEM achievement - Recreation - English Language

Arts - Safe environment

- Respect for diversity - Stewardship and

community service - Hands on project based

learning - Career exploration -College preparation - Life skills - Independent learning and

self motivation

Housing Increase home ownership 51.2% +4.7%

Reduce vacancies 9.6% -.7%

Increase residence property value $156,600 +$192,800

Economic

Development

Increase median household income. $42,114 Short term: stop decline Mid term: $50,000 Long term: US average

Provide fiscal and legal environment

conducive to business. Proxy: No. of

newly registered businesses.

n/a Short term: 3% growth p.a. Mid term: 10% growth p.a. Long term: 15% growth p.a.

Table ES-1: Target goals for Stockton.

From these target goals, we will move into the Design phase. We plan to break into two groups to develop

design solutions on a macro city-wide level and micro lot-by-lot level. These solutions will be developed

with our target goals in mind and we will demonstrate clear connections between the two.

Thank you to the City of Stockton for the opportunity to present the conclusion of our research and the

cooperation and mentorship that we have been afforded throughout this process. We look forward to

producing thoughtful and innovative design solutions.

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Place

Urban Sprawl

Recent history: Stockton in the early 2000s during the housing boom grew outwards like most cities

instead of focusing on infill and revitalization. Northbound subdivisions called “Spanos Park” created by

Alex G. Spanos, are situated by Eight Mile Road, the periphery of the urban growth boundary, and grow

past Interstate 5 towards the San Joaquin Delta. Northeast Stockton added subdivisions within the

neighborhood of “Morada”, which also grow to boundary lines. In South Stockton, Weston Ranch, a huge

subdivision development was created in hope to compensate for the growth of commuter families and to

create more incentive for residents to move to south Stockton. When the housing market crashed in late

2007 early 2008, growth and construction of the subdivisions ceased. In relation to urban sprawl,

Stockton disregarded the state’s climate action plan, due to growing up to the peripheries of the urban

growth boundary.

Lawsuit:

In 2008, the Sierra Club challenged the 2035 Stockton General Plan, which was generous in its

population growth estimates and allocations of land on the urban fringe. The litigation focused on the lack

of quantified greenhouse gas impacts of such development, invoking the California Environmental

Quality Act, as the environmental impact report did not address the carbon emissions associated with.

Additionally, the attorney general also joined due to concerns that the sprawl would undermine

California’s efforts to reach its greenhouse gas reduction targets.1 On September 9, 2008, the City of

Stockton, the Sierra Club, and the Attorney General came to an agreement with the condition that the city

would put forth a Climate Action Plan with enforceable measures to reduce greenhouse gases. This would

reduce Stockton’s CO2e emissions using strategies such as infill development and more efficient

buildings, crafted with the guidance of the Climate Action Plan Advisory Committee to ensure public

input.2 The Climate Action Plan is described in greater detail in the Environmental section.

Present Steps: Due to recent resident disappointment of the general plan, the planning department has

been working towards avoiding urban sprawl growth and promoting infill development. The revision

includes creating “neighborhood plans” that cater to the number of neighborhoods within Stockton in

order to provide necessary amenities for all residents and to create better circulation. Public outreach

meetings have been held to gain a better understanding of what individual residents need in their

neighborhoods. The following section includes more information about the neighborhood plans.

1 Stockton General Plan Litigation Leads to Landmark Settlement on Global Warming. (n.d.). Retrieved December

23, 2014, from http://www.smwlaw.com/news/show/20 2 Memorandum of Agreement. (n.d.). Retrieved December 23, 2014, from

http://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press_releases/n1608_stockton_agreement.pdf

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Community Seeking Action at Town Hall Meeting3

About urban sprawl: Urban sprawl describes the expansion of human populations from central city areas

to rural areas or suburbs, often resulting in communities reliant upon heavy automobile usage. This is one

of the biggest problems, along with necessary funds to provide new streets, water and sewer lines and

public programs. Because of the sprawl already built areas in the city become abandoned. Automobile

dependency leads to larger daily average distances, traffic congestion and a lot of space reserved for

parking lots. To provide better living conditions we are streaming towards transit-, bicycling- and

pedestrian-oriented developments.

Neighborhoods

To prevent further the effect of urban sprawl, the city of Stockton planned to divide Stockton into 16

neighborhoods. Each smaller neighborhood would have smaller hubs and local centers that would

decentralize the city’s downtown. They would provide mixed land use and promote community

development by providing places for public meetings, information and public support, and hubs for

public transportation.

3 http://www.pact4sjc.org/2/post/2012/05/community-seeks-concrete-action-at-town-hall-meeting.html

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Figure 1: Map of Stockton neighborhoods, with SSPZ highlighted

Land Use

South Stockton is mostly single-use low-density zoning area. This means that commercial, residential and

industrial areas are (mostly) separated from one another, which is especially seen in the eastern part of

District 6. Consequently, large tracts of land are devoted to a single use and are segregated from one by

different barriers. As a result, the places where people live, work, shop and recreate are far from one

another, which means that walking, transit use and bicycling become impractical, so all these activities

generally require an automobile.

The General Plan’s goal is to implement mixed land use. This can bring greater housing variety and

density, reduced distances between housing, workplaces, retail businesses and other destinations, more

compact development, stronger neighborhood character and also pedestrian and bicycle-friendly

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environment. This is especially important for the downtown area, which is lacking residents and

pedestrian life outside of work hours.

For District 6 specifically, converting the great number of vacant lots to either commercial or civic is an

appropriate version of mixed land use given the single-use low-density residential zoning all around. One

of the main focuses should be to get critical services like a grocery store close to 8th and Airport Way,

which has the potential to be a neighborhood center in the future. As seen in the figure below, there is

currently little to no commercial land use (red) south of Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. Right now residents

of this area do not have a grocery store within 10 minutes of walking distance, which has also been one of

the biggest complaints.

Figure 2: Land Use in South Stockton. Low density residential and industrial land use types seem to dominate.

Population Density

The total population in South Stockton is approximately 71,200, which is roughly one quarter of the

Stockton’s population (estimate from U.S. Census Bureau 2012 research, the exact number of SS

residents in 2014 will be provided as soon as possible upon the consolidation with the RSSC).

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Population density in South Stockton is above the city average but that is mostly because of the northern

part which includes a big portion of city’s downtown area. The southern parts of the SS area are much

less populated which is a consequence of certain barriers in these parts of the town such as highways,

railroad and industry which separate it from the central areas with higher density (more in Urban barriers

section). Even though the southern part of the city obviously has lower density than northern, there are

some areas where the concentration of people is above city’s average (central and western part of SS).

These areas seem to be a great starting point when trying to expand the population to nearby areas of

lower density to provide a more balanced and evenly concentrated area.

Figure 3: Stockton Population in SSPZ

Urban barriers

There are two highly visible urban barriers: the railroad, isolating southeastern from other parts of South

Stockton and Ort J. Lothus Freeway, separating South Stockton from downtown and northern parts of the

city.

The main South-North railroad track runs almost through the middle of South Stockton and is near the

freeway crossed by a smaller West-East railroad track. Parts of the railroad are impassable and are in

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some cases up to 980ft wide. There are three longer impassable segments- two on the South-North track

(1.9mi and 0.4mi) and one on the West-East track (1.0mi). These segments are separated from each other

by passages (underpassages) that are mainly meant for vehicles. Passages are very uninviting and unsafe

for pedestrians and cyclists (pictures below).

The Ort J. Lothus is a passable barrier but also very uncomfortable to cross for pedestrians and cyclist.

Streets run under the freeway which is built around 23ft from the ground. There is a lot of covered space

under the freeway that is currently unused or occupied with parking.

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Maps with barriers and passages with numbered views over the railroad and passage

Figure 4: Urban Barriers

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Railroad from the sky

View from Airport Way on the barrier Ort J. Lothus

Freeway

View from the location number 2 over the railroad

Passage number 2

Ort J. Lothus Freeway

View from the location number 1 over the railroad

Martin Luther King Boulevard passage under railroad

(passage number 1)

Airport Way crossing the railroad (passage number 3)

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Passage number 4

Unused space under the Ort J. Lothus Freeway

Airport Way underpass Ort J. Lothus Freeway

Parking under the Ort J. Lothus Freeway

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South Stockton and downtown services

Figure 5: Stockton and Downtown Stockton Services

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Airport Way

Figure 6: Focus on Airport Way Services

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Airport Market Grocery & Deli

Beer/Wine/Groceries Rancho Market

Liquor Store Grand Save Market

Rancho San Miguel Minimart (the only decent grocery

store on Airport Way)

Elsumeri Market

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Vacant Lots

Figure 7: Vacant Lots

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Lots 1-2

Lots 3-12

Lots 13-15

Lots 16-19

Drained out river channel

A desiccated river channel runs through northern part of South Stockton. It branches off from the San

Joaquin River and has a West-East orientation. The beginning of the channel is flooded but it gradually

becomes desiccated. It is ideal for revitalization into a connection between downtown and northern part of

South Stockton, because it runs under the streets and railroad. It could be transformed into a safe and

inviting track for pedestrians and cyclists or even other purposes.

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Map of the channel path

Figure 8: Dry Channel

Google earth top view

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Sttreet View 1

Street View 2

Tilted view

Perceptual analyses of South Stockton

Figure 9: Areas of identity in South Stockton

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Figure 10

Target goals

Goal Metric Current Status CA Average Target Goal

Revitalize Vacant Lots

along Airport Way

Count 19 ---- 0 within 10 years

Increase Commercial

Property Value

$/sqft X Y Z within 10 years

Increase Mixed Use

Development in

Downtown

% lots A B C within 10 years

Table 1: Place Target Goals

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Movement

Circulation + Transportation

Introduction

Like many typical urban areas, Stocktonians rely heavily on the car to get to work. A 5-year

survey (2005-2009) conducted by the American Community found that 77.6% of Stocktonians

drive alone to work, 17.8% carpool, 1.3% use transit, .7% bike, and 1.9% walk to work4.

Though there is a focus on the car, there has been a shift towards investment in transit and non-

motorized forms of transportation. Recently, Stocktonians have shown interest in transit and

other forms of transportation. During a General Plan meeting in August focusing on

transportation options in Stockton, Stocktonians were able to vote on their top transportation

priorities. The results released by the city show a large amount of support for non-car

investments5, as can be seen in Figure [], with road widening only receiving 6% of the votes.

Around 60 citizens participated in this exercise, so this is not necessarily an accurate

representation of what all Stocktonians want.

Figure 11: Survey results from August 28, 2014 General Plan Workshop

4 Alta Planning + Design. (2012, September). San Joaquin Council of Governments Regional Bicycle, Pedestrian,

and Safe Routes to School Master Plan. Retrieved from http://ca-sjcog.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/61 5 Garcia, David A. (2014, December 9). Stocktonians demand walkability, more transportation options at General

Plan Meeting. Stockton City Limits. Retrieved from http://stocktoncitylimits.com/2014/12/09/stocktonians-demand-

walkability-more-transportation-options-at-general-plan-meeting/

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According to the Regional Congestion Management Program Transit System Performance,

around 69% of the San Joaquin County population lives within ½ mile linear walking distance of

a transit stop. However, only 12% of the population lives within ½ mile linear walking distance

of a transit stop providing AM/PM peak transit service of 30 minutes or less, meaning a bus

stops at the station every 30 minutes or less6. Stops with this frequency of service or better helps

to attract riders that might not necessarily have to take transit to commute to work, known as

choice riders. In order for transit to expand, it must not only meet the needs of the captive riders,

or those who have to use transit to get to work, but it should also attract choice riders as well.

6 San Joaquin Council of Governments. (2014). RCMP Transit System Performance Dashboard. Retrieved from

http://www.sjcog-rcmp.org/rcmp-transit-system-performance

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Figure 12: Distance accessible within 1 hour of walking or cycling

Description: South Stockton is walkable(green) but the distances are way too far for pedestrians.

Different centers of South Stockton are hardly reachable within one hour by walking. Cycling

distance(orange) within 1 hour is also not adjusted to human scale but it’s far more pleasurable. Average

humans walk 1.4 m/s (5.0 km/h; 3.1 mph); Regular average cyclist’s speed is 13-15 mph(20 km/h). These

numbers are considered because the terrain is mostly flat.

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Social Equity

In many urban areas across the US, public transit has served a targeted demographic, usually

minorities and low-income communities. In Stockton, that is no different. In the regional

transportation plan / sustainable community strategy for San Joaquin County (SJC), Appendix P

covers environmental justice, which describes transportation accessibility for minorities and low-

income communities, known as environmental justice (EJ) communities7. In the appendix, SJC is

divided into parts, and within these parts, there are categories considered “areas of greatest

concern”, which include single-parent households, households with no vehicles, and people over

65. A study found that around ⅔ of these communities have access to transit, as compared to

55% for the general population. A greater percentage of these communities are also within

walking distance (defined as ½ mile distance) to transit compared to the general population.

Lastly, there is a greater employment access via transit for the EJ communities as well.

This shows that the EJ communities benefit greatly from transit investment. One reason for this

is that many of these communities are located in developed areas of the SJC where transit service

is frequent. At the same time, EJ households make up around 65% of all households within 500

feet of a major transportation facility, like a freeway or highway. Even though being near major

transportation facilities can have negative effects, like health and noise issues, there are benefits

to being near these arterial roads, as transit is most likely located along major thoroughfares.

Thus, there is a need for balance between being near these major facilities and not being

negatively impacted by proximity.

In terms of transportation, low income workers are less likely to drive / carpool, as can be seen in

Figure []. What’s most surprising is that of the workers that bike or walk to work, 48% of them

are low-income, while only 13% of those who take the train are low-income. Those who take the

train likely have a job outside of the county, like in the Bay Area, whereas those who can walk or

bike to work have a low-paying job within the county.

7 Braughton, Matt, & Damkowitch, Jim. (2014, June 13). Appendix P Environmental Justice. Retrieved from

http://ca-sjcog.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/505

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Figure 13: Percentage of Work Trips by Means of Transportation and Income for San Joaquin County

Including the funding expenditures, it can be seen that most of the investments benefit non-low-

income households, especially for roadway and rail expenditures. The numbers are based off of

what percentage of workers use the specified mode of transport. This shows that EJ communities

gain greater accessibility with increased transit expenditures. This also shows the minority

populations benefit more from transit investments per capita than the non-minority population.

Nonetheless, around 39% of daily trips on the improved roadways financed by these

expenditures originate from EJ communities. Thus, EJ communities still benefit from roadway

investments. Similarly, this also benefits transit riders given that the buses also use the same

roads. Around 94% of low-income households drive alone or carpool to work, showing that there

is a benefit for roadway capacity investment as well.

Overall environmental justice communities benefit greatly from investments in transit and transit

accessibility, due to their proximity to transit systems in urban areas and higher rate of usage of

transit systems for commuting. But they receive less benefit from roadway capacity investments

precisely due to their use of transit or non-motorized transportation.

San Joaquin Regional Transit District

Stockton’s public transit needs is served primarily by the San Joaquin Regional Transit District

(RTD). The RTD offers 69 routes in total: 35 fixed route lines serving the Stockton Metropolitan

Area (SMA), 3 BRT lines, 15 intercity / hopper lines, and 12 San Joaquin Commuter lines8. The

total ridership for all RTD services in fiscal year 2012 was around 4,300,000 passenger trips.

RTRTD does operate an intercity fixed route, between Stockton and Lodi, on weekdays and

weekends. However, due to the downturn in economy, there is not too much financial support for

intercity fixed routes. The County Hopper connects Ripon, Manteca, and Lathrop to Stockton,

Tracy, and Lodi. The San Joaquin commuter services allows for large-scale carpooling to other

8 DeMartino, Donna. (2013, November 4). Short Range Transit Plan 2014-2018 San Joaquin Regional Transit

District. Retrieved from http://www.sanjoaquinrtd.com/srtp/pdf/20131104-

RTD%20Short%20Range%20Transit%20Plan%20-%20Final%20.pdf

30

major employment centers like Sacramento and the Bay Area. Dial-A-Ride is akin to a taxi

service, but is only for those who qualify under the Americans with Disabilities Act.

In the 2013 fiscal year, the breakdown of passenger trips is as follows: 1,718,701 for SMA,

1,878,940 for BRT, 416,021 for intercity / hopper, 213,173 for Commuter, and 73,457 for Dial-

A-Ride (DAR). Breakdown of revenue hours is as follows: 79,995 for SMA, 47,347 for BRT,

42,696 for Intercity / Hopper, 17,808 for Commuter, and 21,181 for DAR. Breakdown of

Revenue Miles: 922,439 for SMA, 581,160 for BRT, 679,825 for Intercity / Hopper, and

487,949 for commuter. Passenger trips per revenue hour: SMA is 21.5, BRT is 39.7, Intercity /

Hopper is 9.8, Commuter is 12.0, and DAR is 3.5. All these numbers are represented in visual

form in Figures [], [], and [], respectively. BRT has a strong number due to the transition of

services from fixed routes to BRT services. The blueprint for future use includes maintaining and

improving the Intelligent Transit System (ITS) for the future, which includes automated

passenger counters and integrated vehicle logic units. These upgrades will allow RTD to provide

real-time schedule updates at passenger facilities and on RTD’s website.

Figure 14 Figure 15

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Figure 16

Figure [] shows the various performance measures for RTD for the past four fiscal years. In

general, the statistics are improving across the board, thanks to the gradual recovery in the

economy, as well as the success of the BRT lines. The operating cost per passenger trip has gone

down by almost a dollar from 2012, while the passenger trips per vehicle revenue hour have

increased by 3 since 2010.

Figure 17: Performance Measures of San Joaquin RTD from 2010 to 2013.

Safe Routes to School

Stockton has a Safe Routes to School (SRtS) program, which refers to the variety of approaches

in ensuring traffic safety around schools, while also promoting non-motorized forms of

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transportation to schools, using tools like education and traffic enforcement9. The need for safe

routes to schools is evident in that areas within a quarter mile of schools account for 75% of

bicycle collisions and 73% of pedestrian collisions in San Joaquin County, even though these

areas only have 61% of the County’s population. From 2004-2009, there have been 452 bicycle

collisions involving children near schools with 2 bicyclists killed, and 460 pedestrian collisions

involving children near schools with 8 pedestrian killed. SRtS also includes fulfilling

infrastructure improvements and programmatic enhancements. Other stakeholders, like the

SJRTD, are also helping, as they modify routes to help local school districts and colleges in

providing rides for the students. For example, RTD is meeting with University of the Pacific to

establish fare agreements to allow students and staff to use RTD with a prepaid pass. There are

some Safe Route to School planned projects, although they are not located within South

Stockton.

Bicycling Improvements

Currently, South Stockton has few bikeways, and most of them are concentrated around Weston

Ranch, as seen in Figure []. But there are numerous priority projects that have been planned,

including a class 2 lane along Airport Way, from Carpenter Road to Stockton Metropolitan

Airport, and a class 1 route along Airport Way from 750 feet south of 12th street to Carpenter

Road7, as denoted in Figure [].

Figure []: Stockton Existing Bikeways (as of September 2012)

Figure 18: Stockton Planned Bikeways (as of September 2012)

9, 7 Alta Planning + Design. (2012, September). San Joaquin Council of Governments Regional Bicycle, Pedestrian,

and Safe Routes to School Master Plan. Retrieved from http://ca-sjcog.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/61

33

Related policies

Although Stockton has focused on the car as the primary source of transportation, there is a shift

towards more sustainable commuting.

For example, in 1990, voters in San

Joaquin County approved Measure K,

which is a half-cent sales tax for

transportation projects in the county10.

In 2006, it was approved by voters to be

extended for an additional 30 years, and

is expected to generate around $2.5

billion for transportation programs. The

allocation of the measure can be seen in

Figure []: passenger rail, bus, and

bicycle development includes bus rapid

transit or cycling lanes and congestion

relief projects, includes expanding

highways. Even though 67.5% of the

revenue goes to car-related developments, Measure K still provides almost a third of its revenue

to transit development, which is a step in the right direction. Figure 19: Measure K Allotment

For the 2014 Measure K Ordinance and expenditure plan, the transportation improvement plan is

meant to fill $7 billion gap in transportation funding11. As mentioned earlier, of the $2.5 billion

expected to be raised, 30% of that, or $756 million, will go to transit purposes. Further

breakdown shows 39% of that total, or $295 million will go to passenger rail transit, 49% ($370

million) to bus transit, 5% ($38 million) to bus rapid transit capital, and 7% ($53 million) for

bicycles, pedestrians and safe routes to school. Even though there has been a lot of emphasis on

BRT, less money is spent on developing bus transit as compared to the other sectors. Indeed,

passenger rail transit commands 40% of the budget. Similarly, the passenger rail transit focuses

on connecting Stockton to the Bay Area and other cities, instead of focusing Stockton’s internal

connectivity. Bus transit funds all the bus services within the county, with the San Joaquin

Regional Transit District (SJRTD) receiving a minimum allocation of 50% of the funds. Still,

bus transit is getting a significant investment, and should continue to develop, in order to help

those who need it, as compared to those who don’t have to necessarily use the train.

10 Measure K. (2014). Retrieved December 12, 2014, from http://sjcog.org/index.aspx?NID=97 11 San Joaquin Council of Governments. (2014). Measure K Renewal 2014 Ordinance and Expenditure Plan.

Retrieved from http://sjcog.org/DocumentCenter/View/794

34

Target Goals

The target goal for public transit is compared to San Mateo County due to the similar population sizes of

the two counties, whereas the city of San Mateo is around six times smaller than San Joaquin County12.

Goal Metric Current Status Comparison Target Goal

Reduce vehicle

miles traveled

(VMT) per capita

VMT 2005: 28.09 daily

VMT per capita13

US 2013: 25.76 daily

VMT per capita14

2040: 26.71 daily VMT per

capita15

Increase number

of bicycle

commuters

Number of

commuters

2009: 6339

commuters in San

Joaquin County16

City of San Mateo

2008: 1281

commuters17

2020: 8000 commuters in

SJC

Increase ridership

of public transit

Annual

Number of

Passengers

Fiscal Year 2013:

4,300,292

passengers18

San Mateo County

samTrans 2013 Fiscal

Year: 12,752,336

passengers19

2018 Fiscal Year: 5,385,442

passengers17

Add bike lanes to

Airport Way

Number of

Lanes

No lanes Stockton 2012: 36.13

Class 2 Miles18

2020: 4.12 Class 2 Miles

from E. Miner Avenue to the

Stockton Airport19

Reduce time to

reach market

Time 8 minutes by car

from Airport Way

& 8th Street to

Food 4 Less

x minutes from North

Stockton to decent

grocery store

2020: <5 minute by car from

south stockton to grocery

store along vacant lot

Table 2: Movement Target Goals

12 US Census Bureau. (2014, June). Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin

for the United States, States, and Counties: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013. Retrieved from

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk 13 Blueprint for American Prosperity. (2008). Vehicle Miles Traveled.Retrieved from

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2008/6/metropolicy/vehicle_miles_traveld.PDF 14 McCahill, Chris. (2014, February 24). Per capita vmt drops for ninth straight year; DOTs take notice. State Smart

Transportation Initiative. Retrieved from http://www.ssti.us/2014/02/vmt-drops-ninth-year-dots-taking-notice/ 15 San Joaquin Council of Governments. (2014). Appendix M Performance Measures. Retrieved from

http://sjcog.org/DocumentCenter/View/502 16,18,19 Alta Planning + Design. (2012,September). Regional Bicycle, Pedestrian, and Safe Routes to School Master

Plan. Retrieved from http://ca-sjcog.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/61 17 City of San Mateo. (2010). Bicycle Master Plan. Retrieved from

http://www.cityofsanmateo.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/11277 18,17 DeMartino, Donna. (2013, November 4). Short Range Transit Plan Fiscal Year 2014-2018. Retrieved from

http://www.sanjoaquinrtd.com/srtp/pdf/20131104-RTD%20Short%20Range%20Transit%20Plan%20-

%20Final%20.pdf 19 SamTrans. (2014, August 8). Ridership. samTrans.com. Retrieved from

http://www.samtrans.com/about/Bus_Operations_Information/Ridership.html

35

Environment

Climate, Climate Action Plan, Hazards

Climate

● Hot dry summers, cool wet winters

● Average annual rainfall: 14 inches (source?)

● Implications: susceptible to drought, low heating loads, high cooling demand.

Figure 20: Heating and Cooling Cost index comparing Stockton with CA and the US.20

Climate Action Plan

The goal of the proposed Climate Action Plan (CAP) and related plans/programs is to reduce greenhouse

gas emissions to 10 percent below 2005 levels by the year 2020, as required by Assembly Bill 32, the

Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; and the 2008 Settlement Agreement between the City of

Stockton, the Attorney General of California and the Sierra Club.

Background

● The City of Stockton is projected to grow by 31,863 inhabitants between 2005 and 2020, or by

10% (U.S. Census 2005; Fehr & Peers 2011).

● General Plan Lawsuit: Settlement Agreement with the Sierra Club and the Attorney General

○ CAP: one of the conditions of the Settlement Agreement

○ Climate Action Plan Advisory Committee (CAPAC): stakeholders from environmental,

non‐profit, labor, business, and development interests.

Current Trajectory - Business As Usual

● 13% projected emissions increase from 2005 to 2020 based on the expected growth in city

population, employment, and housing

● 2,672,519 Metric Tons of carbon dioxide (Co2) equivalent (e).

● Assumed drivers of emissions growth: Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), building energy

consumption, water use, and wastewater generation due to population and economic growth.

● Projected Emissions increases by sector (2005-2020)21

20 Stockton, CA Weather. (n.d.). Retrieved December 22, 2014, from http://www.usa.com/stockton-ca-weather.htm

36

○ Transportation: 9%

○ Building energy: 17%

○ Water: 42%

○ Wastewater: 11%, respectively.

Stockton’s GHG Target for 2020 is 2,122,000 Metric Tons Co2e.

Emissions Inventory: Major Sources

The CAP assumes 83% of the reductions needed to achieve the City’s GHG reduction goal will be

achieved through state programs, with the remainder (17%) accomplished through City‐level programs.

Building energy, transportation, and waste were identified as areas with great potential for emissions

savings.22

The inventory analyzed emissions from the following sectors

● On-Road Transportation: Fuel consumption for on‐road vehicles due to the land uses in the

City.

● Building Energy (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial): Natural gas and electricity

consumption

● Solid Waste Management: Methane emissions from landfills

● Off-Road Equipment:

● High GWP GHGs: Fugitive emissions of HFCs and CFCs from appliances and SF6 from

transmission

● Wastewater Treatment:

● Water Importation:

● Agriculture: N2O emissions

21 ICF International (2014). City of Stockton Climate Action Plan. Sacramento, CA. Prepared for City of Stockton,

Stockton, CA. Retrieved December 22 2014, from

http://www.stocktongov.com/files/Climate_Action_Plan_August_2014.pdf 22 ICF International (2014).

37

Figure 21: Mton CO2e released in Stockton by sector.23 Sources included in the “Other Sources” category include

solid waste management (3%), water importation (0.4%), and agriculture (0.04%). 2020 projection for business as usual

case without the Climate Action Plan.

*2020 CAP target values assuming uniform 10% reduction across all sectors, including state initiatives.

23 ICF International (2014).

38

Reduction Measures

24 separate GHG reduction measures

The CAP includes a Cost/Benefit Analysis of many GHG reduction measures.

Carbon Offsets: considered but not analyzed further, City prefers focus on programs that would direct

economic resources within Stockton.

Measure Description

Multisectoral

DRP-1 Development review process

Building Energy

Energy-1 Existing Green Building Ordinance (mandatory)

Energy-2a Outdoor Lighting Upgrades (city)

Energy-2b Outdoor Lighting Upgrades (voluntary, private)

Energy-3 Residential Efficiency incentives and retrofit programs (voluntary)

Energy-4 Non-Residential Efficiency incentives and retrofit programs (voluntary)

Energy-5 Solar Powered Parking

Energy-6 Rooftop Solar

Land Use and Transportation

Trans-1 Land use/transportation system design integration

Trans-2 Parking policies

Trans-3 Transit system support

Trans-4 Efficient Goods Movement

Trans-5 Reduce barriers for Non-Motorized Travel

Trans-6 Transit system improvements (City + RTD)

Trans-7 Safe Routes to School (city)

Trans-8a Additional Safe Routes to School (City)

Trans-8b Transportation Demand Management (Private, Voluntary)

Waste

Waste-1 Increased Waste Diversion (Mandatory)

Water

Water-1 Comply with SB X7-7

39

Water-2 Promotion of water efficiency for existing development

Wastewater

Wastewater-1 Energy efficiency improvements at the RWCF (City)

Urban Forestry

Urban Forestry-1 Urban tree planting programs

High GWP GHGs

HGWP GHG-1 Residential Responsible Appliance Disposal Programs (city)

Off-road vehicles

Off-Road-1 Electric Powered Construction Equipment (Voluntary)

Off-Road-2 Reduced Idling Times for Construction Equipment (Mandatory)

Off-Road-3 Electric Landscaping Equipment (Voluntary)

Table 3: List of GHG Reduction Measures

40

GHG emissions Reductions MT CO2e Percent of total reduction (%)

STATE PROGRAMS 473,415 83

LOCAL PROGRAMS

Development Review process

4,963

1

Building energy use measures 49,271 9

Land use and transportation

measures 13,619 to 19,360 2 to 3

Waste generation measures 4,245 1

Water consumption measures 16,228 3

Wastewater treatment measures 312 0.1

Urban forestry measures 75 0.0

High GWP GHG measures 255 0.0

Off-road vehicle measures 2,622 0.5

Subtotal for LOCAL

PROGRAMS 91,590 to 97,331 16-17

TOTAL REDUCTIONS 565,005 to 570,746 100

Table 4: GHG Emissions reductions by measure category

41

Figure 22: Estimated breakdown of emissions reductions by sector24.

Implementation

Funding

Private

Private equity

Power Purchase Agreements

On-bill financing

Upfront costs of local programs add up to $1.4 million for the city. For the remainder, other sources of

funding are necessary. Public Private Partnership are hailed in the Climate Action Plan, and considered a

necessary path towards implementation considering the city’s limited access to resources as it emerges

from bankruptcy. The city’s primary role will be “that of a convener and land/infrastructure owner,”

bringing together private interests and public stakeholders such as property owners, developers,

transportation authorities, financial sector members, the Chamber of Commerce, neighborhood alliances,

24 ICF International (2014).

42

and universities.25

Figure 23: Cost/ton reduction CO2e, using the NPV. Negative values indicate net savings over measure lifetime.

25 ICF International (2014)

43

Figure 24: Measures sorted by increasing upfront cost. Some measures not listed because they are mandated through

state programs, are existing practices, or are not quantified. Rooftop solar value is upper estimate

Public

Federal tax credits

Energy efficient mortgages

Utility program: California Solar Initiative

Utility program: Energy Upgrade California – San Joaquin County

California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery

California Air Resources Board

Existing Capital Improvement Programs (CIP)

State Infill Infrastructure Grant Program

Transportation-specific Federal and State funding

Public Utility Enterprises: rate increases

Measure K: transportation funding through half cent sales tax increase

AB 2766 and SB 709: Vehicle registration fees used towards air mitigation

Bus Stop Sponsorships

Transit fare increases

Parcel Tax

As evident above, a variety of federal, state, and local funds are available for greenhouse gas reduction

measures. While many are sector specific (i.e. Measure K only focuses on transportation), these are still

44

valuable resources to be leveraged as the city meets its goals, and should be considered for future

development in general.

Financing

AB 811 (PACE)

Property owners can assess their buildings to receive low interest loans for energy efficiency, water

conservation, and renewable generation to be paid off through property taxes. Stockton participates in the

HERO PACE program, the largest in the country26, which ensures that these programs meet federal

standards for mortgages.

Timeline

Prior to Approval of CAP:

Begin GHG inventory (2009)

Inventory completed and accepted by the CAPAC (2011)

CAP Approved (December 2014)

Approval onwards:

Phase 1 (2014-2015):

● Develop key procedures, programs, policies

● Greater Downtown Stockton Area Specific Plan

● Planning framework

● Complete cost benefit analyses for urban forestry, HGWP GHG, and off-road vehicle measures

● Updated emissions inventory

Phase 2 (2016-2017)

● Continue measures already enacted in Phase 1

● Review measure effectiveness

● Identify and implement measures for Phase 2

Phase 3 (2018-2020)

● Continue existing measures

● Implement remaining measures

● Analyze Phase 1 and 2 measure effectiveness

● New GHG inventory

● Begin planning ahead beyond 2020

Monitoring and Evaluation

Monitoring expected to take place in 2015, 2017, and 2019. Annual reporting expected from Climate

Implementation Coordinator. Protocol for monitoring has not yet been developed.

26 Stockton City Council votes to Adopt HERO Residential Energy and Water Efficiency Program. (2014, May 7).

Retrieved December 22, 2014, from http://www.greentechmedia.com/industry/read/stockton-city-council-votes-to-

adopt-hero-residential-energy-345840

45

The criteria for choosing which measures will be implemented first include27:

● Cost/funding: Measure cost (upfront and long term), does funding exist

● GHG reductions: emissions reduction effectiveness

● Consistency with existing programs:

● Impact on the community: advantages and disadvantages to community?

● Implementation speed: Both in terms of implementation and ability to reap benefits

● Implementation effort: Difficulty of implementation

Note that though some of the above criteria are quantifiable, many are qualitative and nuanced. It is not

immediately obvious how the city will choose measures that do well in different respects, or whether

more weight is given to certain criteria. It may be safe to assume that cost and emissions reductions are

the primary priorities, but even then there are long term and short term differences in how costs impact

the city, due to savings for example.

Air Pollution

Figure 25: Breakdown of major precursors to smog by source. Due to the San Joaquin Valley’s strong agricultural

economy, diesel trucks and farming operations are the two largest contributors to NOx and VOC emissions, respectively.

While a similar breakdown of PM 2.5 emissions was not found, wood burning seems significant as Figure [# above + 2 ]

focuses specifically on the winter months when wood burning is more likely to take place.

27 ICF International (2014)

46

Figure 26: SJVAPCD Report to the Community: hours over the 1-hr ozone standard. Strong decrease in ozone standard

violations down to zero hours over the one hour standard in 2013.28

Figure 27: SJVAPCD Report to the Community: PM 2.5 standard violations and number of healthy and unhealthy

days.29

While the San Joaquin Valley has been notorious for its elevated pollution levels, the region seems to be

making significant strides towards improving its air quality. Ozone in particular has improved

dramatically, and in 2013 had zero exceedances. For this reason, the SJVAPCD has asked the EPA to lift

the $29 million penalty for ozone and to designate the region as “in Attainment.” However, PM 2.5

concentrations remain high and stricter ozone standards aren’t necessarily met - the San Joaquin Valley

remains “the most polluted region in the nation outside of Los Angeles County.”30 While a detailed

analysis for Stockton has not been completed, staying attentive to air quality issues will be important for

protecting the health and safety of its citizens.

28 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (2014). Report to the Community 2013-14 Edition.

http://www.valleyair.org/2013-14-AnnualReport.pdf. Retrieved 12/22/2014 29 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (2014). About the District. (n.d.). Retrieved December 22, 2014, from http://www.valleyair.org/General_info/aboutdist.htm 30 Barboza, T. (2013, December 22). San Joaquin Valley officials fight with EPA over air quality. Retrieved

December 23, 2014.

47

Figure 28: Attainment Status for Criteria Pollutants in the San Joaquin Valley. Note that PM and ozone remain classified

as “nonattainment,” or not meeting the standard.31

Flooding

Below a flood zone map is presented, as updated and issued by New Federal Emergency Management

Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS) for San Joaquin county. This map is part of the

San Joaquin map and focuses in Stockton and in particular the southern part of the city which is our

interest area.

Flooding is the most likely natural hazard to occur in the area, since San Joaquin County is largely

surrounded by water, protected by levees, and experiences periodic flooding.

Building restrictions apply in areas designated as Special Flood Hazard Areas (Zone A).

For all parcels designated as Special Flood Hazard Area (Zone A), building restrictions will apply to new

construction, reconstruction and additions, including but not limited to a requirement to elevate new and

existing structures above the base flood elevation.

For all existing property identified on the final maps as being in a high-risk area, should be advised to

carry flood insurance.

Only a small percentage of South Stockton is in Zone A and thus under flood risk. Only the areas close to

water are in Zone A. Parts of South Stockton are also in the areas protected by levees.

31 About the District. (n.d.).

48

Figure 29: Excerpt of map delineating changes in floodplain areas from the San Joaquin Valley Planning Department,

focus on Stockton.32 Yellow areas are protected by levees, and white areas do not face substantial flood risk. All blue areas

are considered at risk for flooding and require additional insurance,and dark blue areas represent more additions.

32 San Joaquin County Public Works Department (2009). San Joaquin County Flood Zone Changes: Final FEMA

DFIRM Data. Accessed 12/22/2014.

49

SWOT

Strengths:

· Waterway system for irrigation

· Climate action plan,

· Highly fertile soil

· Biodiversity

· Agriculturally rich area

Weaknesses

· Potentially contaminated brownfields,

· High energy consumption in summer

· Urban sprawl

Opportunities

· Delta water supply project

· Rise of electricity mobility

· Number of sunny days

· Constant wind

· Recycling material projects

Threats

· Natural hazards (medium: earthquakes, high: floods, droughts, freeze)

50

Target Goals

Goal Metric Current Status CA Average Target Goal

CAP: Reduce

emissions 10%

from 2005 levels

by 2020.

tons CO2eq per

capita

8.1 tons/capita (2005),

2.016 tons/capita from

residential and

transportation (2005)33

10.7 tons/capita

(2005)34

6.6 tons/capita

(10% reduction

from 2005 levels)

by 2020

New buildings

must be efficient

and LEED

certified

kwh/ square

foot, %change

Not quantified 25% reduction in

HVAC, lighting, and

water heating from 2008

standard.35

25% reduction

Commercial

Rooftop Solar

% of electricity

from solar

Not Quantified 5% (PG&E preliminary

average for 2013)36

10% by 2020

Meet CA PM2.5

standards

concentration

PM 2.5, # days

above standard

6 exceedance days in

2012 37

135 days above standard

2012-1338

0 days above

standard in

Stockton

Meet CA Ozone

Standards

concentration

ozone, # of

hours above

standard

5 exceedance days of

CA 8-hr standard

(2014)

2 exceedance days of

US 8-hr standard

(2014)

818 exceedance days of

CA 8-hr standard in CA,

135 in San Joaquin

Valley Air Basin

(2014)39

0 exceedance

days for any

ozone standard

Reduce impact of

new development

on flooding

% change in

impermeable

surfaces

Not quantified Not quantified <= 0% (net

decrease in

impervious

surfaces)

Table 5: Environmental Target Goals

33 Marilyn Brown, Frank Southworth, and Andrea Sarzynski - Brookings Institution (2008), “Shrinking the Carbon

Footprint of Metropolitan America” 34 U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis. (2014, February 25).

Retrieved December 22, 2014, from http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/state_emissions.cfm 35Building Energy Efficiency Standards: Frequently Asked Questions:. (2012, May). Retrieved December 22, 2014

from

http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/2013standards/rulemaking/documents/2013_Building_Energy_Efficiency_Standar

ds_FAQ.pdf. 36 Wesoff, E. (2014, March 27). California Utility PG&E Exceeds 20 Percent Renewable Energy Standard.

Retrieved December 22, 2014, from http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/California-Utility-PGE-Exceeds-

20-Percent-Renewable-Energy-Standard 37 AQMIS Data: Stockton-Hazelton Street. (n.d.). Retrieved December 23, 2014, from

http://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/display.php?param=PM25HR&units=001&year=2012&report=SITE1YR&statistic=

DAVG&site=2094&ptype=aqd&monitor=G 38 Figure [ ] 39 Latest Year's (Annual) Ozone Summaries for Selected Regions (PST). (2014, December 22). Retrieved December

23, 2014, from http://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/ozone_annual.php

51

Health + Safety

Crime

Violent Crime

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Murders 37 40 41 37 29 24 33 49 58 71 32

Rapes 155 108 109 102 105 112 82 107 90 90 91

Assaults 2,225 2,365 2,695 2,630 2,467 2,628 2,329 2,464 2,684 2,913 2,144

Robberies 1,208 1,187 1,357 1,519 1,615 1,158 1,259 1,413 1,323 1,556 1,088

Violent

crime rate

(Stockton,

CA)

761.8 743.8 818.3 808.4 771.3 799.5 691.1 763.3 778.5 857.6 no data

Violent

crime rate

(U.S.

average)

262.6 256.0 258.9 264.1 259.7 252.4 238.0 223.2 214.1 214.0 no data

Table 6: Violent crimes in Stockton: rate of crime per 100000 people40

* - as of December 2013

Property crime

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Burglaries 3,125 3,067 3,434 3,836 4,054 4,353 3,980 4,482 4,133 4,416 4,189

Thefts 11,791 11,023 11,487 12,202 11,783 11,102 9,274 9,654 9,651 8,339 8,748

Auto-thefts 3,863 4,135 3,940 3,681 2,840 2,500 2,173 2,041 1,679 2,503 2,143

Property

crime rate

(Stockton,

CA)

702.5 686.2 683.6 693.1 639.0 639.0 564.3 600.1 550.0 582.6 no data

Property

crime rate

(U.S.

average)

334.1 327.4 322.3 317.3 309.2 302.2 285.6 276.4 273.5 266.5 no data

Table 7:Property Crimes in Stockton, rate of crimes/100000 people41

40 Crime rate in Stockton, California (CA): Murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, thefts, auto thefts, arson, law

enforcement employees, police officers, crime map. (n.d.). Retrieved December 23, 2014, from http://www.city-

data.com/crime/crime-Stockton-California.html

52

* - as of December 2013

Although, crime continues to be of significant concern in South Stockton, the measures and

initiatives introduced to addressed the problem are finally providing measurable results.

In 2013, initiatives including Operation Ceasefire, accomplished to drop the year’s homicide

count by 55%, robberies count by 30%, and assaults by 17%, when compared to the year prior.

This success can also be attributed to the increased participation of citizens in reporting crimes.

Yet, even with said progress, the city's crime rates continue to be comparable to the metropolitan

areas of Detroit, Chicago and Los Angeles and much higher than those of its size and density.

Particularly responsible for these numbers are historically poor neighborhoods such as South and

Southwest Stockton (District 6). These dire need for economic development and better

infrastructure in these neighborhoods has lead to problems such as high gang activity, low

income rates, and a poorly educated youth.

Figure 30: Stockton homicides.

Gangs

Street gangs have been the biggest provider of crime in the city of Stockton. In the past few

decades gang activity was constantly increasing, which can be explained by the poor social and

economic status of the minorities in the suburban parts of the city. Stockton's present-time gang

members are usually in their late teens or in early 20s, with no education, relying only on

41 Crime rate in Stockton (n.d.)

53

themselves and their fellow gang members. Although the comradeship between old friends is

still present, the model of constructed crime organization is slowly falling to pieces. The trend of

all vs. all mentality has been a huge difference when comparing gangs in Stockton to those in

bigger metropolitan areas and is making an unfriendly environment even more dangerous.

Another thing that is making the suburban areas more dangerous than in the past, is a common

belief that every dispute gang members have among themselves should be solved with fire-arm.

The guns are either stolen or purchased from drug addicts in exchange for drugs.

Figure 31

Marshall Plan

The Marshall Plan is addressing crime as a system-wide problem, involving Stockton's police

department, criminal justice agencies, non-profitable organizations and city's residents. The

communication and collaboration between these parties is crucial when trying to reduce crime

trends. The Marshall Plan strives to focus the community’s efforts on “hot” people and places for

crime reduction. Much of its design is informed by the statistic that over the last two years, less

than .2% of Stockton's population was responsible for up to 80% of homicides.

54

Figure 32:From Marshall Plan Symposium Overview, February 8, 2013.42

The Marshall Plan was passed in two stages. Measure A was a ¾-cent general sales tax effective

April 2014. Measure B allocates 65% towards increasing public safety through Marshall Plan

implementation and 35% toward ending bankruptcy and service restoration. In addition, the plan

establishes a Citizen Advisory Committee to engage community members with these efforts.

The result of this program were operations like "Operation Ceasefire" a gun violence

intervention strategy which is cooperating with federal gun and narcotics operations and is

concentrating on the small number of gang members responsible for a large number of violent

crimes in Stockton. The police department reported that the 54% drop of murders in 2013 was

the direct effect of Operation Ceasefire, giving it a much needed momentum fighting crime in the

future. Another cause for lower crime rates compared to years from 2008 to 2012, was an

additional recruitment of 120 police officers. The Stockton Police Department had 346 officers

in 2013, the largest number of sworn officers since 2008 and are estimated to get another 50 in

the next two years.

42http://www.stocktongov.com/files/2013_2_08_MarshallPlan_SymposiumOverviewPowerPoint_34pages.pdf

55

Figure 33: From “Measures A and B Implementation Plan Phase 1.” City Council Meeting. February 25, 2014.43

Community Voices

Figure 34:Word cloud of survey responses to the question, “What would you change about the community?”

The Reinvent South Stockton Survey was a primary source for us to gauge some of the potential

areas for growth. Self-generated ideas from the community are often very powerful and the

community survey data collected showed a community that has thought deeply about their needs

and what they want out of their community. This word cloud was generated in response to the

43 Measure A & B Implementation Plan Phase I: Stockton City Council Meeting (2014). Retreived December 23

from http://stockton.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=48&clip_id=4768&meta_id=393646

56

question, “What would you change about the community?” The biggest trends in responses were

concerns about safety. Many talked about the violence in the community and issues with the

police force. They wanted more effective police presence; many people said that the police did

not respond when called. Considering that the Stockton budget is almost 50% expenditures on

the Police force, it is concerning that there is a perception of a lack of police presence. How can

we utilize that budget in a more effective manner to better support the communities that need it

most?

Target Goals

Goal Metric Current Status US Average Target Goal

Reduce Number of

Homicides

# per

year/100,000

people

857.6 214 214

Reduce Property

Crimes

# per

year/100,000

people

582.6 266.5 267

Table 8: Health and Safety Target Goals

57

Community

Demographic analysis + education.

Key Demographics

For the purposes of this analysis, South Stockton has been distinguished as the zip codes 95206, 95205,

and 95203.

Figure 35

Racial Breakdown

Figure 36

58

Education Levels

Figure 37

Family Structures

Figure 38

59

Figure 39

Unemployment and Poverty

Figure 40

School Standings

California Growth44

API*

City of Stockton45

Average API**

Difference (CA -

Stockton)

All Grades 790 713 77

44 California Department of Education. (n.d.). 2012-13 Accountability Progress Reporting (APR). Retrieved

December 18, 2014, from http://api.cde.ca.gov/Acnt2013/2013GrthStAPI.aspx?allcds= 45 California Department of Education. (n.d.). Local Educational Agency (LEA) List of Schools 3 - Year Average

Academic Peformance Index Report. Retrieved December 18, 2014, from

http://api.cde.ca.gov/acnt2014/apiavgdst.aspx?cYear=&allcds=3968676&cChoice=2013BDst

60

Elementary School 811 704 107

Middle School 800 779.5 20.5

High School 757 656.3 100.7

Table 9: Academic Progress Index (API) Rankings

*The Growth API summarizes a school's, an Local Educational Agency (LEA's), or the state's performance

on the 2013 Standardized Testing and Reporting (STAR) Program and 2013 California High School Exit

Examination (CAHSEE) tests. The API is on a scale of 200 to 1000.

**Stockton’s Average API is based on the 3-year average from 2011-2013 on a scale of 200 to 1000.

Table 2: High School Dropout Rates

California46 San Joaquin

County16

City of

Stockton47

High School Dropouts (%) 11.4 12.0 24.3*

Table 10: : High School Dropout Rates

*The City of Stockton Dropout Rates are derived from data concluding that 75.7% of the Stockton

population 25 years and older have a High School or higher education.

Metric CA % San Joaquin

County %

3rd graders at or above proficient in language arts 33 25

7th graders at or above proficient in mathematics 42 38

High school students at or above proficient in chemistry 27 26

Graduated from high school within 4 years 73 72

Graduated with CSU/UC Requirements 30 22

Table 11: Academic Milestones Among Socio‐economically Disadvantaged Students48

46 High School Dropouts. (n.d.). Retrieved December 20, 2014, from

http://www.kidsdata.org/topic/105/highschooldropouts/table#fmt=192&loc=2,127,347,1763,331,348,336,171,321,3

45,357,332,324,369,358,362,360,337,327,364,356,217,353,328,354,323,352,320,339,334,365,343,330,367,344,355,

366,368,265,349,361,4,273,59,370,326,333,322,341,338,350,342,329,325,359,351,363,340,335&tf=73&sortColum

nId=1&sortType=desc 47 Stockton, California. (n.d.). Retrieved December 17, 2014, from http://www.city-data.com/city/Stockton-

California.html 48 Community Needs Assessment of Children and Families in San Joaquin County. (n.d.). Retrieved December 22,

2014, from http://www.hscdc.org/pdf/SJCCA2014.pdf

61

A Walk Down Airport Way: The Big Picture

The charts above were generated using 2010 census data by zip code. These numbers are only half of the

story that South Stockton has to tell. As shown, the area is predominantly Hispanic and contains above

average numbers of Black residents. All three zip codes in South Stockton are minority-majority

populations. South Stockton has experienced tensions between authoritative bodies and members of the

community because of the lack of representational governance and policing, as discussed in the Health

and Crime section. South Stockton is a distinct area from the rest of Stockton due to both the physical and

cultural barriers that prohibit interactions between the more affluent populations in North Stockton and

the comparatively impoverished populations found in South Stockton.

South Stockton has higher than average numbers of families. The area is suburban and primarily single-

family homes, as discussed in the Housing section. Despite the high rates of crime, the area contains a lot

of youth and families. However, these families are under the pressure of higher than average rates of

poverty and unemployment. The impression given by the demographics and by the efforts of the Reinvent

South Stockton Coalition is that these families are at the heart of the community and bolstering programs

and features that support them will be the best chance at success.

The key to success for many communities is

education. Level of education is one of the key

predictors of behavior. The area has lower rates of

attainment for Bachelor’s degrees and

higher as compared to the state of California as a

whole. Stockton has a number of universities, but

they are not integrated with the community and

there are a number of physical barriers that make it

difficult for young people without personal

transportation to pursue higher education. Beyond

that, many schools in South Stockton are far below

the California average Academic Progress Index

and only 22% of San Joaquin Valley students

graduate with the requirements for admission to

UCs and CSUs.

Figure 41: Google Maps reference of Higher Education

Institutions in the Stockton area. Airport Way is denoted

with a star.

Supporting education and youth development is critical to empower the community members of Stockton,

reduce crime, and in the long term, raise the level of education and thus, median income of the area.

62

Education

Supplementary Educational Programs

Head Start Child Development Inc.49

Head Start is a federally funded child development program provided for low-income populations at no

cost to families. The Head Start program serves children age three until Kindergarten eligibility. Early

Head Start serves pregnant women, expectant families, and infants/toddlers up to age three.

Head Start is the leading publicly-funded comprehensive early child development program in the country.

Enrollment in preschool is correlated strongly with future success and the impact is even larger in areas of

low income50.

Head Start has had a presence in San Joaquin County for 50 years. It has 15 locations in the South

Stockton area, and 5 locations also provide Early Head Start services.

Programs Offered:

● Head Start - 5 days/week

○ Full and Part day classes

○ Extended Care, up to 6 hours/day

○ Home Base Classes

■ Weekly visits focused on parent role in education

● Early Head Start - 5 days/week

○ Full and Part day classes

○ Extended Care, up to 6 hours/day

○ Home Base Classes

○ Pregnant Women’s Program

Stockton STEP Up51

Stockton STEP Up is a free afterschool program that targets students with the greatest need in English

Language and Pre-algebra/Algebra skills, but leaves remaining slots open to any students on a first-come,

first-serve basis. STEP Up develops enrichment activities to engage learning in areas of literacy, math,

social studies, science, visual and performing arts, and civics. As of now, STEP Up exists in six

elementary schools throughout Stockton

Program Goals:

● Increase basic math skills

49 Head Start Child Development Council, Inc. (n.d.). Retrieved December 22, 2014, from http://www.hscdc.org/ 50 Anderson, L. M., Shinn, C., Fullilove, M. T., Scrimshaw, S. C., Fielding, J. E., Normand, J., & Carande-Kulis, V.

G. (2003). The effectiveness of early childhood development programs: A systematic review. American journal of

preventive medicine, 24(3), 32-46. 51 Stockton Unified School District: Welcome to STEP Up. Retrieved December 18, 2014, from http://www.susd-

ca.schoolloop.com/stepup092810

63

● Increase academic achievement in ELA

● Increase student engagement in school

● Increase student physical fitness

● Provide a safe environment for children during after school hours

Means to reach target goals:

● Use Measure of Academic Progress (MAP) to analyze academic goals of each student

● Promote active student engagement through leadership in planning activities, use staff’s passions

to inspire students

● Hold Family Nights to draw broader community to celebrate achievements of students

● Track attendance and ask parents of targeted students to enroll them

● Engage in 30 minutes of recreation each day and implement a curriculum for healthy eating

choices

● Create a Youth Council to identify bullies/bullying behavior and reward/empower students to

problem solve

● Conduct yearly surveys to assess program’s success

District Average Math

Scores

Pre Test Mid-Year

Post Test

% Increase

(Pre/ Post)

1st Grade 32.41% 48.76% 70.30% 117%

2nd Grade 56.20% 65.72% 76.47% 36%

3rd grade 49.82% 65.14% 76.57% 54%

4th Grade 52.12% 60.73% 71.05% 36%

5th Grade 52.12% 60.73% 71.05% 36%

6th Grade 49.10% 53.16% 59.78% 22%

7th Grade 59.99% 60.76% 66.24% 10%

8th Grade 60.28% 62.80% 65.36% 8%

Table 12: Math Scores of STEP Up Students

PLUS52

The Stockton Unified School District has implemented a Peer Leaders Uniting Students (PLUS) program

in 41 Elementary Schools, 1 Middle School, and 7 High Schools so far. The program focuses on building

strengths in student connection, gathering data, and program development. Through peer to peer program

development, facilitators help students engage and connect to utilize leadership qualities and connect

students to adults on campus. The program also helps schools gather data through a Directional

Leadership Survey and Resource Database. PLUS also provides professional development training and

52 Our Services. (2013, June 4). PLUS Program. Retrieved December 21, 2014, from

http://www.plusprogram.org/find_us/

64

conferences for staff members to educate about youth safety and school climate as well as various

prevention programs. Though the PLUS program aims to help with student involvement and safety in

school, it fails to provide students with further enrichment and activities after school hours.

Potential for Future Programs

Benefits of Gardening for Children53

Research shows that gardening provides an array of engagement and educational opportunities for

children “including designing, planting and maintaining gardens; harvesting, preparing and sharing food;

working cooperatively in groups; working cooperatively in groups; learning about science and nutrition’

and creating art and stories inspired by gardens” (Yost).

Research-proven benefits include:

● Lifelong benefits from interactive knowledge of healthy foods, outdoor physical activity, and

positive social interactions

● Positive social and interpersonal skills gained from bonding through communal effort

● Community growth

● Healthy eating habits and hands on nutritional education

● Increase in science achievement and positive attitude towards learning

● Higher self-efficacy and enhanced environmental stewardship and value

● Opportunities for special populations including children with learning disabilities and juvenile

offenders to engage in positive cooperative effort

Lodi Example: Bridge After School Program54

The Lodi Bridge After School Program runs daily after school until 6 pm and focuses on a number of

areas integral to child development including academics, enrichment, and physical recreation. Since the

program addresses a wide range of developmental areas including career exploration, leadership building,

community service learning, hands on project based learning, and a respect for diversity, Bridge not only

enhances academic performance but also provides a space for real world application and lifelong

betterment.

Mission Statement:

The Lodi Unified After School - Bridge Program will engage students in year-round expanded learning

programs to support student achievement and prepare them for college, career and life.

Bridge Program Goals:

Participating students in the program will experience...

● Respect for Diversity

53 Yost, B. Benefits of Gardening for Children. Children, Youth and Environments Center for Research and Design.

University of Colorado at Denver and Health Sciences Center. Retrieved December 18, 2014, from

http://www.childrenandnature.org/downloads/CYEfactsheet3gardening2009.pdf 54 LodiUSD: Bridge After School Program. (n.d.). Retrieved December 16, 2014, from

http://www.lodiusd.net/bridge

65

● Trusting Relationships

● Safe & Supervised Environment

● Common Core Program Design with Expanded Learning Opportunities

● Project Based Learning Activities in Science, Technology, Engineering & Math (STEM)

● Academic Homework Assistance that supports Mastery by a Credential Teacher

● Enrichment and Recreation Opportunities

● Student Centered Activities

● Citizenship and Leadership Building

● Community Service Learning Opportunities

● Career Explorations

● Positive and Fun Learning Environment for all Students

In Conclusion: The Value of Enrichment Activities55

Education and recreation enhance the lives of people of all ages, yet the American school system

continuously cuts the budget for recreation and extracurricular activities. Enrichment activities provide

an outlet to allow students to develop creativity, moral direction, a sense of responsibility, and

cooperation in diverse settings. Traditional education focuses on mastery of information but often fails to

encourage independent learning and discovery, self-motivation, and the value of learned skills in later

life. Lasting impacts from enrichment activities include an awareness of purpose outside of the self,

positive interactions with the natural world, influence on character and attitude, and interest in developing

new skills and reaching goals.

55 Sabo, K. The Value of Enrichment Activities. Home EDucators Resource Directory. Retrieved December 21,

2014, from http://www.homeeddirectory.com/blog/value-enrichment-activities

66

Target Goals

Goal Metric Current Status CA Average Target Goal

Raise API (by target

goal points)

200-1000

point scale

All: 713

Elem: 704

Middle: 779.5

High:656.3

All: 790

Elem: 811

Middle: 800

High: 757

All: 77

Elem: 107

Middle: 20.5

High: 100.7

Increase Graduation

Rates

% 75.7% 88.6% 12.9%

Increase School

Sponsored

Afterschool

Programs

# Available

Programs: STEP

Up and Head Start

STEP Up: 6

schools

n/a Available Programs: start

program similar to Lodi

Bridge

STEP Up: 12 schools by

2016

Agricultural

Education through

Community

Gardens

# n/a n/a Establish a community

garden and partner with

schools using one of the

empty lots

Increase Diversity

of Enrichment

Focus

areas

- STEM

achievement

- Recreation

- English

Language Arts

- Safe environment

n/a - Respect for diversity

- Stewardship and

community service

- Hands on project based

learning

- Career exploration

- College preparation

- Life skills

- Independent learning and

self motivation

Table 13: Community Target Goals

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Housing

Homeownership From 2010 Census data, about 59.2% of the Stockton population are comprised of homeowners,

in more detail, homeownership rates are noted by ethnicities. African Americans are the ethnic

group with the lowest number of homeownership rates at 41.9% in 2010, the ethnic group also

predominantly concentrated within District 6.

Homeownership

Rates by Ethnicity

2000 2010

African American 43.9% 41.9%

American Indian 46.3% 46.9%

Asian/Pacific

Islander

55.5% 62.6%

Hispanic 48.3% 47.8%

White 68.2% 68.7%

Table 14: Homeownership by ethnicity

For Stockton as a whole from 200 Census data, 46.1% of the population is paying more than

30% of their income towards their rent. African Americans again number the highest among

ethnic populations paying over 30% of their income towards housing. American Indians come

out at 51.4% and Asian/Pacific Islanders are at 50.9%

68

Share of Renters Paying More than 30%

of income for Rent

2000

Metro Area 46.1%

Share of Renters Paying More than 30%

of Income for Rent by Ethnicity (2000)

Metro Area

African American 52.7%

American Indian 51.4%

Hispanic 46.1%

Asian/Pacific Islander 50.9%

White 43.5%

Table 15

Available and Vacant Housing

Housing Occupancy

Total housing units 100,011 100,011

Occupied housing units 90,372 90.4%

Vacant housing units 9,639 9.6%

Homeowner vacancy rate 2.6 (X)

Rental vacancy rate 7.5 (X)

Table 16

69

Figure 42

Figure 43

70

Figure 44

Figure 45

71

Figure 46

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-Year American Community Survey

Median value of housing

In 2005, the median value of an owner-occupied housing unit in Stockton was 341,800 dollars.

Housing values then peaked in 2006, reaching 384,000 dollars. The next year, prices fell 5.02%

as the financial crisis was starting to take shape. In 2008, with the recession in full swing, values

started falling more rapidly and by 2009, the median value had already halved compared to its

pre-crisis peak. In the following three years, the contraction in values diminished, finally

bottoming out in 2012 at a median value of 156,600 dollars, a 59% drop from the peak in 2006.

This decrease is considerably larger than the fall of housing values in California as a whole,

which stood at 35% and much larger still than the United States median housing value, which

fell 13% from its 2008 peak. Coming into 2013, housing values in Stockton rose only slightly,

reaching 162,000 dollars. These figures indicate that Stockton has been hit disproportionately

hard by the global financial crisis, severely affecting assets of residents and local government

income from property taxes. If the median value of housing units in Stockton stood at more than

twice the amount of the national figure in 2006, by 2009 it had dipped just below and had not

recovered by 2013. In fact, the situation had worsened still: in 2013, house values in Stockton

stood at 93% of the national median.

72

Figure 47: Home Sales in Stockton, CA

Estimated median house or condo value in 2012:

$156,600 (it was $117,500 in 2000)

o Stockton: $156,600

o California: $349,400

Mean Prices in 2011: $266,978

73

Below we present the situation in terms of housing in three zip codes in South Stockton. We can

see from the graphs that in these zip codes home sales follow the same decreasing trend as the

rest of the city. Median prices in general follow the same rising trend, but in the two zip codes

below that are southern (95203 and 95205) they are much less than the city average. Zip code

area 95206 is close to the city average both in terms of sales and median price of housing. For

reference, here are the zip boundaries for the three areas.

Figure 48

Home Sales in Zip Code 95203

Median value of housing units

with mortgages in 2011:

This zip code: $210,538

California: $363,600

Median value of housing units

with no mortgage in 2011:

This zip code:$230,595

California: $325,900

Median price for vacant houses

and condos in 2011:

This zip code:$15,473,182

California: $360,300

Figure 49

74

Homes sales in Zip Code 95205

Median value of housing units

with mortgages in 2011:

This zip code: $188,939

California: $363,600

Median value of housing units

with no mortgage in 2011:

This zip code: $139,496

California: $325,900

Median price for vacant houses &

condos in 2011:

This zip code:$276,551

California: $360,300

Figure 50

Homes Sales in Zip Code 95206

Median value of housing units with mortgages in 2011:

This zip code: $305,823

California: $363,600

Median value of housing units with

no mortgage in 2011:

This zip code:$286,200

California: $325,900

Median price for vacant houses &

condos in 2011:

This zip code:$672,724

California: $360,300

Figure 51

75

Foreclosures

In conjunction with homeowner data,

foreclosures within Stockton in 2005 (during

the housing boom) are shown. Foreclosures

are concentrated within Weston Ranch and

the north periphery of the city. Weston

Ranch served as a low to middle-income

community predominantly with minority

groups, located in District 6. Foreclosures in

2010, also signifying the housing market

collapse, overlay much of the city.

Foreclosures within Weston Ranch are

denser, with housing in Airport showing a

higher concentration on foreclosures. Spanos

Park East and other suburban neighborhoods

of the north also experienced a dramatic

density of foreclosures, areas that

experienced housing growth during the

housing boom. Foreclosures shown presently

for 2013 seem to be stabilizing compared to

2010, but a high amount of foreclosures are

still occurring in Weston Ranch. Figure 52

Figure 53 Figure 54

76

Conclusion Homeownership rates are low among minority groups, especially the ethnic group of African

Americans. From demographic data and analysis, minorities (i.e. African Americans) are

concentrated more in lower-income areas like District 6 of Stockton. Lower and middle-income

groups were also targeted for unreasonable and unsafe high interest rate loans, leaving many

unable to make their home mortgages, resulting in foreclosure. Due to this faulty lending

practice, a foreclosure crisis erupted within Stockton, specifically in areas that were newer

(suburban neighborhoods built during the housing boom) compared to older homes in affluent

neighborhoods. Weston Ranch, located in District 6, experienced a harsh rate of foreclosures,

which can be attributed to the targeted minority groups that had high interest loans, most of

which were not financially stable to make high interest loan payments.

Target Goals

Goal Metric Current Status CA Average Target Goal

Increase home

ownership

% 51.2% 55.9% +4.7%

Reduce vacancies % 9.6% 8.9% -.7%

Increase residence

property value

$ $156,600 $349,400 +$192,800

Table 17: Housing Target Goals

77

Economic Development

PESTEL analysis

Political

Stockton’s political environment has been substantially influenced by the city’s bankruptcy

procedures. Creditors and the bankruptcy court are now also effectively stakeholders in the city’s

political process. With the city council elections behind it, the government has two years of

relatively stable decision making ahead of it, allowing it to focus on the implementation of its

strategic goals. However, ensuring fiscal sustainability while working towards a more business-

friendly environment may prove to be difficult. On the other hand, the city government does

have strong resolve to revitalize the city. Furthermore, NGOs are very active, with nonprofits

such as the Reinvent South Stockton Campaign working hard towards improving the local

communities.

The encroachment by state and federal governments on local matters is also problematic. The

city has limited abilities to alter its business environment because much of its legislation and

procedures are predetermined by the state, political efforts to make the climate more business-

78

friendly therefore have to, short of attempting to influence state and federal legislation through

their representatives, focus mostly on other, smaller details, which are also very important in

determining a city’s business attractiveness. The city government’s intentions to attract and

retain businesses are praiseworthy, however, more focused ongoing efforts will be required to

achieve this.

Economic

Stockton suffered greatly in the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis with over 3% of homes

posting for foreclosure in the same year, the most in the entire United States. The value of

median-priced homes declined by over 40% from September 2006 to September 2007.

Stockton filed for bankruptcy in July 2012, making it the largest US city to do so at that time. On

October 30th 2014 a federal bankruptcy judge approved the city’s bankruptcy recovery plan, part

of which was a ¾ of a percent increase in the sales tax to help fund the revitalization.

The median household income in Stockton is 70% of the State average, while the living income

required to support a household comprising of 2 adults and one child is 87% of the State average

as per 2013 data. The analysis also shows the difference in income between Stockton and

California is increasing with the age of the population; the State average income is only 5.5%

higher for workers up to 25 year of age but is 26% higher for workers 45-64 years of age. Data

mentioned above imply a higher degree of Stockton’s working population active in low paying

industries, which is confirmed by an industry breakdown comparison. Further supporting the

above mentioned assumption is the class of worker breakdown, which shows a

disproportionately large part of Stockton’s workforce is employed in the Government sector

while the private wage and salary worker percentage is the same, a disproportionately small

amount of workers are self-employed; the assumption here being that Government employee

salaries are more upward limited than self-employed workers salaries.

Consumer spending in Stockton is below the State average in all measured areas. However, some

products stand out as particularly price inelastic (demand not affected a great deal by price

changes) such as tobacco products, utilities, food and health insurance. The data suggests raising

taxes on these products would increase the tax revenues, however very little fiscal authority is

left with the city itself. The city can, in fact, raise the sales tax above the State appointed amount;

Stockton raised its sales tax to 9% in 2013, of which 1% point the city keeps. Our findings

support this decision.

Socio-Cultural

Economic environment reacted strongly to the crisis, but the society suffered even stronger. The

increase of the religiousness of the people was one of the results, showing the seriousness and

often hopelessness people felt. Crime escalated, transforming a once calm and family city into

the likes of Detroit and other major city in the country according to the criminal activities and

safety of the people. Presence of gangs, drugs and other criminal activities, combined with the

impoverishment of the people and foreclosures of the real estate resulted in part of the city being

79

abandoned and started being perceived as center of criminal activity in the area. The perception

of South Stockton made it impossible for firms to maintain their level of business, and many of

them bankrupted in short time affected both by the crisis and movement of the inhabitants to the

more attractive locations in the city, state or even country. What was once connected to part of

the city shortly became the entire city’s symbol, putting it among 10 poorest and most dangerous

cities on the country level.

Another important characteristic of Stockton is cultural diversity of the city. Many different

nations, races and ethnicities live together in this area for decades. The one area where the

difference among them is most evident is the health condition of different races, sensitivity to

illnesses and death causes. The studies show that greater number of new infections with HIV is

occurring in the African American population. While African Americans had the highest

proportion of deaths due to diabetes than any other racial/ethnic groups, they had the lowest

percentage of cancer deaths. This is in contrast to the high incidence of cancer in African

Americans. Hispanics had the highest percentage of deaths due to accidents (unintentional

injuries) but the lowest due to heart disease.56

Historically having high rates of educated people, Stockton recently faced lack of funding for

educational purposes, provoking problems in raising the quality of the education provided to

students. Nevertheless, the number of highly qualified workers in many fields is still present, and

enabling them to find jobs in their fields would positively affect the economic situation in the

city as well as lower the expenditures that are made due to the unemployment of those people

(social contributions, insurance etc.).

Technological

Stockton is in an unenviable situation when it comes to technological comparison with other

cities, because of its location near the Silicon Valley, home to the world’s largest technological

multinational companies like Google, Facebook, Yahoo, Apple and others.

The most surprising piece of information is that 32% of residents are not connected to the

internet at all, which is odd for a city with otherwise decent internet speeds and excellent cellular

network coverage. LTE network is provided by all the biggest US telecommunication providers

such as AT&T, Sprint, and Verizon.

Investing in research and development is low and Stockton features (to our knowledge) only one

technological incubator. While other Californian cities spend nearly 8% of their budget on R&D,

Stockton spends only 3%.

Future of urban areas lies in the smart city approach, often connected with large capital

investments, which are unlikely to be done neither by the city of Stockton, since it is bankrupt,

nor by the other investors, because of the other issues that Stockton is faced with.

A step in the right direction is, of course, the Stockton Police App, which allows users to report

crime with just a few taps, sending the time and location without any effort at all. Warning about

56 San Joaquin County (2011). Community Health Status Report 2011. San Joaquin County Public Health Services.

Retrieved from http://www.sjcphs.org/disease/documents/FINAL%20Updated%20Health%20Status%204-1-11.pdf

80

the abuse of the system should be mentioned here. Another example of technology working

brilliantly is CleanUp Stockton app. Residents can locate spots covered with graffiti, take a

picture using mentioned application and a team of volunteers comes to clean it up.

Environmental

Stockton is located in northern-central California in San Joaquin Valley, which gives it unique

characteristics. It’s location provides great potential for renewable energy, especially wind and

sun powered power plants. Stockton features 261 sunny or partly sunny days per year and

constant west winds from the Pacific Ocean, which are results of local orography, surrounding

valley from three sides. Winters in Stockton are warm, with an average temperature of 37.2ºF

(2.9ºC).

Pleasant climate is perfect for agriculture, so it is no surprise that the valley, which spreads from

Sacramento to San Joaquin County, is the largest citrus production area in US. Due to limited

precipitation Stockton is threatened by droughts, but also floods, which are results of the urban

sprawl, a process where soil is changed with concrete and asphalt, therefore water has nowhere

to go. These risks were minimized by effective storm water systems, levees, and Delta River

Waterway Project; the latter helps ensure drinking water and water for irrigation to the city.

Delta River Waterway is under threat of earthquakes, which are, however, rare in destructive

forms in the mentioned area, as it does not lay directly on the San Andreas Fault.

Much bigger damage to the Stockton’s agriculture can be caused by sudden freeze, coming from

the mountains of Sierra Nevada. Stockton is also suitable for urban farming, because of its soil

quality and seedling mortality, which is low all across the city, except on the certain brownfields.

Air quality improved dramatically in terms of ozone levels, although problems with emissions

coming from the great number of cars still remain. Building energy, transportation, and waste

were identified as areas with great potential for emissions savings.

In terms of waste management, there are two private companies in collector business. Awareness

of need of recycling is growing in whole California and Stockton does not represent an

exception. Companies regularly inspect waste of households, giving them rewards if they recycle

and fine them if they do not. Foothill Landfill is the main landfill for Stockton and also San

Joaquin County and will be in operation until 2055.

Before sewers and waste water are discharged in the San Joaquin river they go through a

complicated process of three treatments conducted at the Stockton Regional Wastewater Control

Facility, which is located at north-west area of city of Stockton, minimizing effect of wastewater

on environment.

San Joaquin river is source of food to the great number of migratory birds and home to chinook

salmon, and represents ideal environment for trekking and biking routes as well as parks.

81

Legal

Despite the fact that the United States consistently ranks as one of the easiest countries to do

business in, the state of California is considered one of the most difficult states. The reasons for

such a perception of the state can be found in its comparatively high taxes, as well as

complicated bureaucratic procedures and a comprehensive regulatory environment. Complex and

time-consuming procedures affect both large and small businesses. This is a disadvantage for the

city, as it, along with the city’s difficult fiscal position, adds to Stockton’s inability to attract new

businesses. However, there are measures Stockton can take to improve its attractiveness. The

Small Business Friendliness Survey by Thumbtack and the Kauffmann Foundation found that

small businesses are more deterred by high levels of bureaucracy than by high taxes, meaning

Stockton can attract new business by making it easier for them to set up shop, even if it cannot

decrease taxes.

Comparing Stockton with Glendale, CA, which was awarded for its business-friendly practices

by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation in 2014, Glendale has taken

various measures to ensure its attractiveness. It has a concierge service team which includes

Economic Development, Planning, Building and Safety, Fire and Traffic departments to help

new businesses. Economic Development is integrated in the City’s General Plan, focusing on a

diverse, sustainable and growing business base. The City’s commitment to cost reduction

includes no business tax, low property taxes, flexible zoning, community benefit districts, and

business energy solutions.57

High crime rates affect law implementation as well. That is why one of the main issues in the

legal environment is breaking the cycle of chronic, generational crime and improving public

safety in Stockton. Law enforcement agencies have been trying to interrupt and prevent violence

and homicides by targeting high-risk persons, places and situations. The unpredictable nature of

criminal activities and organized crime make it hard to detect and track such activities, and give

rise to doubts, whether the successful application of legal procedures will be able to defeat it.

City Budget Overview

Under protection of chapter 9 of the federal bankruptcy code, the city of Stockton has a balanced

budget in size of $632,564,874, of which is 22% planned for utilities, following with 17% for

police, as it can be seen in pie chart below.

57 Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (November 13, 2014). 2014 Eddy Awards winners

announced. Retrieved December 16, 2014, from http://laedc.org/2014/11/13/eddy-award-winners-announced/

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Figure 55: City Budget

Due to the bankruptcy procedures there are very limited possibilities when deciding to which

projects the City can transfer the funds.

For revitalisation purposes are interesting especially community development and economic

development. For economic development they provided only 3% of the budget ($21.6 million),

which gives Stockton poor ability to fund our additional economic development proposals,

among existing projects. Total figure of funds assigned for these two areas accounts for $29

million.

The five-year Capital Improvement Program (CIP) cost projections for fiscal years 2014-19 total

$738 million of which $81.5 million is proposed in the FY 2014-15 Annual Budget. However,

of this amount only $2.775 million or 0.4% is funded from the General Fund. The CIP budget for

next year is almost entirely made of transportation and utility improvements. These categories

count for the majority of the five year CIP project list as well. This is reflective of the poor

condition of the General fund and the lack of new development mitigation fees. Included in the

five year plan are projects totalling $347 million which have identified funding sources and $391

million with unidentified funding sources. This latter amount represents improvements that are

needed but cannot be funded at this time. Capital improvements funding sources include city

funds, federal/state funds, sales tax measure K, city enterprise funds, public facility fees, and

other revenue (e.g. boat launching facilities).

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The 5 Industry Strategy - A Development Proposal

Our view is that economic redeployment is crucial for the revitalization process. A thriving economy will

increase the income of the local population through job creation and attract secondary service providers to

the area, who cater to the population. This will, in term, raise the overall security of the area and stimulate

a natural shift to a more desirable population without the need for forced gentrification.

We believe it is the role of the local government to make its legal and fiscal environment attractive to

potential investors and as such stimulate the growth of existing ventures while simultaneously attracting

new capital to the area. Due to the economic recession and overly ambitious expansion plans, Stockton

currently has very little in the way of a functioning business environment. District 6 in particular, while

once being a thriving industry centre, now has virtually no employers whatsoever.

We shall attempt to identify 5 industries to which Stockton has the most to offer and which could be

positioned in the aforementioned South Stockton area. The industries will be strategically selected with

regard to the resources, natural and otherwise, locally available. After the selection of industries a detailed

analysis will be conducted into the internal incentives and external factors said industries find

conducive. This will entail an overview of the current, potential and required incentives and will account

for the external factors within the framework of PESTEL analysis, the outline of which is presented

above. Detailed urban and architectural plans and models will be constructed in order to best cater to

the needs of industries; this point is crucial for the success of the project, as the by far greatest asset of the

local government is the land which it can provide to potential investors in a fiscally attractive

environment. The above mentioned findings will be compiled and presented in a SWOT analysis format,

from which specific goals will be extrapolated and a strategy will be constructed to facilitate the

achievement of said goals.

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Figure 56: 5 Industry Strategy

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SWOT Analysis

SWOT of 5 Industry Strategy.

Figure 57: Five industry strategy SWOT Analysis

Goals

Goal 1

Increase median household income.

Short term: Stop decline

Mid term: Reach 50,000 dollars

Long term: Reach US figure

The median household income in Stockton declined between 2008 and 2013, falling from 49,034

to 42,114 dollars. The first, short term goal is to stop this decline and return to growth. In a mid

term time frame, the goal we want to achieve is to increase median income above 50,000 dollars

(assuming a 2% inflation rate). In the long run, the goal for Stockton is to reach the national

median household income and further on the California figure.

Table 1. Median household income in the period 2005-2013

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Table 18

Source: American Community Survey, United States Census Bureau

Goal 2

Increase number of newly-registered businesses by:

Short term: 3%

Mid term: 10%

Long term: 15%

The second goal is to spur business development in the city and ensure a business-friendly

environment in Stockton. In the short term, our goal is to reach a 3% growth in the number of

newly-registered businesses, reaching 10% in the mid term and 15% in the long run.