Spohrer dc trip 20160323 v2

PowerPoint Presentation

Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG)Jim Spohrer (IBM)Washington, DC USA, Wednesday March 23, 2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-aaas-reality2-20160214-v3

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Reference:Spohrer, J (2016) Panel Discussion: Reality 2.0: Much smarter service systems coming soon. AAAS Washington DC, USA. Sunday February 14, 2016.URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-aaas-reality2-20160214-v31

Why I am in town3/23/16 IBM UPWard 2016

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Computing: Then, Now, Projected3/23/164

20352055

If Moores Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people).

Based on Kurweils graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one persons brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the worlds population for $1000.

Source:http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

Was Moores Law inevitable?http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/

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195519751995201520352055

The weakest link is what needs to be improved according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.

By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.

Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.

However, over the years phones got much better. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?5

What exists in 2016?3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6

360,000100,000120,00060,000150,000

Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy).

More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant.

Make no mistake, like magnetism the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic!

Prediction 1 more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten yearsPrediction 2 by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistantsPrediction 3 by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant

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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development7

3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 8

Cognitive Assistantsfor all occupations

O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990s it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc.

O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time.

Source:http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=08

Occupations = Many Tasks3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development9

Watson Discovery Advisor3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development10

Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development11

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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?3/23/1613

What might it look like?

Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation13

3/23/16 IBM UPWard 2016

14What might Reality 2.0 look like?

Courses2015How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.9 months to 40% question answering accuracy1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject2025How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week2035How to use your cognitive assistant to build a startup.Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one dayCognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves2055 How to manage your workforce of cognitive assistants.Most people have 100 cognitive assistants working for them.

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Here is what I tell students....

... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:

(0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;- another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")- today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly- debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY- more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info

(1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions

(2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions

(3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)

(4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.

(5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university

In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era...

In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook....

In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....

http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2

By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force.

Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features:

Suits - body suit cell phones

Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals.

Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team....

The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL

Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.15

By 2035, T-Shaped Makers will with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators3/23/1616

Empathy & Teamwork sectorregion/culturediscipline DepthBreadthSTEMLiberal Arts

Source: http://tsummit.org16

Learning to program:My first program3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 17

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945Jim Spohrers First Program 1972

In the 1940s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia.

My first program punch cards 1972.17


Bluemix free access http://www.ibm.com/university see academic intiatives18


Interested faculty, students, really anyone with a credit card can get 750 GB-Hours a month freehttp://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/developercloud/services-catalog.html19

Reality 2.0 Service Platform3/23/16 IBM UPWard 2016

20Service PlatformCM1P2CM1P1100x100x100x

In Summary3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development21

A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities

WithCognitiveMediatorsAdd Rights &Responsibilities


Obvious things to do.. With the mission of cognitive assistants for all occupations in smart service systems.http://www.cognitive-science.infohttps://www.linkedin.com/groups/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452

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Smart Service System:All entities in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win valueEntity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

Images Sources:http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/23

Sciences provideFrameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematicallyExplanations with instructions on how to re-do3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 24Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -To our children and childrens children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing, should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A re-makers movement?

These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help us make good choices in creating our future?

Image sources:http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpgAlone in the Wilderness (1968) Dick Proenneke - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss

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3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25Explain external phenomena

Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena?

Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world across many scales.

Picture of star formationhttps://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php25

3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26Explain internal phenomena

Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena?

Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world.

Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 Ls, they also have a 4th L limbs those cognitive assistants are robots.

Picture of physics and the brain...http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/

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Explainvalue co-creationphenomena


PhysicsChemistryBiologyNeurosciencePsychologyArtificialIntelligenceEngineeringManagementPublicPolicyEducationDesignHumanitiesNatural SystemsCognitive SystemsService Systems

However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds

The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology.

The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence which inform cognitive science.

Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in.

Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385

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Watson Platform on BlueMix3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development29

New Era of Computing:Cognitive Technologies & Componentry30Natural LanguageReasoning, Logic & PlanningSymbolic ProcessingNatural Language ProcessingRanking of HypothesesKnowledge RepresentationsDomain-Specific OntologiesInformation Storage/RetrievalMachine Learning, ReasoningVon Neumann ComponentryOpenPOWER SystemsPattern RecognitionRecognition, Sensing & ActingPattern ProcessingImage & Speech ProcessingRanking of HypothesesPattern RepresentationsDomain-Specific Neural NetsInformation Storage/RetrievalMachine Learning, PerceptionNeuromorphic ComponentryTrueNorth & Corelets SystemsAI for IA: Intelligence Augmentation(Engelbarts Visiion)

Cognitive Assistants(Cogs) that boost creativity and productivity of people in smart service systems.

Cognition as a Service

3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development30IBM Cloud Bluemix

The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 31

Open Source Ecology is one branch of the Makers Movement with the goal of making it easier for individual to make the industrial machines most needed in civilization

Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself.Were developing open source industrial machines that can be made for a fraction of commercial costs, and sharing our designs online for free. The goal of Open Source Ecology is to create an open source economy an efficient economy which increases innovation by open collaboration.

Source: http://opensourceecology.org/31

So what does this have to do with programming and computation?3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 32

Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines and constructors

You can tell famous computer scientists and mathematicians, because they end up on stamps

Von Neumann was one of the first to make the connection to computation and self-replicating automata. Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines, universal constructors, kinematic machines, self-replicating machines, and more.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine32


195519751995201520352055

2035 one human brain/2055 all human brains

By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.

Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.

However, over the years phones got much better. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?33


What could possibly go wrong? Social technology makes us less social.

Image Source:https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1d/eb/5c/1deb5c1cf49a5dbb7689131f3cc8b9a9.jpg34

What exists in 2016?3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 35

360,000100,000120,00060,000150,000

Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy).

More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant.

Make no mistake, like magnetism the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic!

Prediction 1 more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten yearsPrediction 2 by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistantsPrediction 3 by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant

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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development36


Cognitive Assistantsfor all occupations

O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990s it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc.

O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time.

Source:http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=037

Occupations = Many Tasks3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development38

Watson Discovery Advisor3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development39

Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development40

Brief History of AI1956 Dartmouth Conference1956 1981 Micro-Worlds1981 Japanese 5th Generation1988 Expert Systems Peak1990 AI Winter1997 Deep Blue1997 2011 Real-World2011 Jeopardy! & SIRI2013 Cognitive Systems Institute2014 Watson Business Unit & True North Brain Chip2015 Cognition as a Serviceon IBM Bluemix

3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development41

3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development42


Modhas Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres.

Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZohttps://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168

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IBM TrueNorth Chip3/23/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development44

Programming the IBM TrueNorth chip is like building a neural network, not much like traditional programming.44


Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizenswith cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy


Dharmendra S. Modha, PhDSenior Manager, Cognitive Computing; Principal Investigator, SyNAPSE

SyNAPSE

2011 IBM Corporation

2011 IBM CorporationIBM Research - Almaden

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The brain is very good at integrating and co-ordinating multiple sensory inputs and motor outputs

while occupying a small volume

and consuming very little power

2008 IBM CorporationOur brains are very good at doing certain kinds of process that traditional computers struggle to do.

Our brains receive real-time, noisy spatio-temporal data from a variety of sensors. All these sensor modes communicate their information to the brain with a common language of electrical impulses, called spikes (represented in the slide by tiny white squares blinking on and off).

The brain recognizes patterns in these inputs and associates patterns observed in one sense with those remember in another---for example, the sight of a rose may evoke the sound of the word rose or a memory of what rose smells like.

Based on these patterns, the brain plans and executes actions. It controls various bodily actuators---muscles, glands, vocal cords, etc.---using the same language of spikes.

Amazingly, the brain does all this while occupying only about two liters of volume and consuming only about 20W of power.

People have struggled for decades to make computers of conventional design do the things the brain can do, and this has proven to be an extremely challenging task, especially when trying to match the volume and power performance of the biological brain.49

Computers and the Brain: Different & Complementary 10 Hz, parallel, high fanout, event-driven

Integrates memory, computation, communication

10 mW/cm2

~5 GHz, sequential, linear, clocked

Separates memory, computation, communication

100 W/cm2

2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research

A large part of this struggle may result from the very different approaches and architectures used by the brain and by conventional computers.

Traditional computers operate in a step-by-step, sequential fashion, marching in step to a clock that has gotten faster and faster over the decades, thus using increasing power. In contrast, the brain does many things in parallel, and only when needed.

Traditional computers separate memory, processing, and communication, where the brain integrates them tightly together.

As a result of these differences in architecture and approach, traditional computers require a power density of about 100W/cm^2, where the brain requires only about 10 mW/cm^250

DARPA SyNAPSE End Goaldevelop electronic neuromorphic machine technology that scales to biological levels1014 synapsesneurons firing at 10Hz in 2 liters, 1kW at real-time


52Phase 0, 1, 2, 3, 2008-, $53.5M

IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation

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Summary



IBM ConfidentialHow It Works:neurons, synapses, axons, dendritesIntegrates memory computation communicationLocal data movementEvent-drivenReconfigurableUltra-low powerCompact


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SynapsesNeurons

Scheduler

256 neurons, 64K synapses, 1MHz field-adaptableSeo et al., 2011

256 neurons, 256k synapses, asynchronous, 45 pJ/spikefield-programmableMerolla et al., 2011; Arthur et al., 2012

Demonstrated Two Neurosynaptic Cores


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TrueNorth Architecture


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Von Neumann versus TrueNorth for brain-like computationNeuron(s)

BusNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunication

Memory Wall / Bottleneck

SynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseCPUMemory

IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation58Like the brain and unlike von Neumann computing, the TrueNorth architecture: (a) is event-driven and shies away from ever-increasing clock rates, the need for cooling, and dark silicon, (b) integrates Memory with computation and so avoids the Memory wall and minimizes overall average wire length, (c) uses implicit addressing for Memory thus significantly reducing Memory and communication, (d) has exceptionally low-power and so can be ubiquitously embedded, (e) is fault-tolerant and so degrades gracefully, and (f) is simple but fundamental, with canonical cores using canonical learning interconnected via a canonical fabric

SyNAPSE Stack


NeoVision

IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation60

SyNAPSE Stack




Von Neumann:Left Brain ComputingSyNAPSE:Right Brain ComputingSequential, Analytical

Text, numbers, symbolic

Front-end, back-end intelligence

Von Neumann Architecture

High Power and Area

Simultaneous, Synthetic

Sense-act, sub-symbolic

In-situ, physical intelligence

Non-von NeumannArchLow Power and Area

IBM Research

Copyright IBM Corporation 2009

IBM Proprietary