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RUSSIA - in the RUSSIA - in the world: past, present, world: past, present, future future Eric Van Cauwenberge Former lecturer KATHO (now VIVES) February 6 & 7–2017 Version 2017

Russia - in the world: past, present, future

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Page 1: Russia - in the world: past, present, future

RUSSIA - in the world: past, RUSSIA - in the world: past, present, future present, future

Eric Van CauwenbergeFormer lecturer KATHO (now VIVES)

February 6 & 7–2017Version 2017

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Eric Van Cauwenberge

Welcome - TopicsWelcome - Topics

Background – some history (1)The Russian Federation (9)Introduction – name (1)Maps (4)People (9) Structure of Russia (8)Government Profile (29)The president and his wife (20)The Presidential Executive Staff (3)FSB (2)

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Welcome - TopicsWelcome - Topics

Economic profile (24)Gazprom (18) - Transneft (2) - LUKoil (3)Rosneft (1)Pipelines (6)Russia and the EU (13)Corruption (4)The media (2)Geo-politics (6)Oligarchs (2)Other slides (13)Sources (17)

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Background – some historyBackground – some history

In December 1991 splintered the USSR into 15 independent republics – the Soviet flag above the Kremlin was lowered for the last time (dec 25th)

The Russian Federation was bornRussia emerged from a decade of post-Soviet economic

and political turmoil to reassert itself as a world power

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The Russian FederationThe Russian Federation

Boris Yeltsin won the first democratic presidential elections in June 91. Re-elected in July 1996

A period of rapid privatization under the rule of President Boris Yeltsin (early 1990s) created a powerful group of magnates - known as "oligarchs" - with vast energy, media and other business interests

A sharp contrast to widespread economic hardship among ordinary Russians

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The Russian Federation (1)The Russian Federation (1)

Former KGB officer V Putin quickly moved to break the oligarchs' influence - a close-knit circle of his associates has since - directly or indirectly - to a large replaced extent them in their control of key economic assets

Income from vast natural resources, above all oil and gas, have helped Russia overcome the economic collapse of 1998

The state-run gas monopoly Gazprom supplies a large share of Europe's needs in gas and oil

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The Russian Federation (2)The Russian Federation (2)

Economic strength has allowed Vladimir Putin to enhance state control over political institutions and the media

A process supplemented more recently by an emphasis on fierce nationalism and hostility to the West

Back by a booming economy (in the 2000s) it adopted a more assertive foreign policy stance

Began to promote its perceived interests in former Soviet states more openly - even at the cost of antagonizing the West

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The resulting tensions first became acute in August 2008, when a protracted row over two breakaway regions of Georgia escalated into a military conflict between Russia and Georgia

Further diplomatic friction followed over US missile defense plans in Eastern Europe - since shelved - and Moscow's role in Iran's nuclear energy programme

A "reset" of Russia-US ties early in 2010 resulted in a new nuclear arms treaty - but fell foul of Kremlin anger at US criticism of its treatment of opposition activist

The Russian Federation (3)The Russian Federation (3)

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The Ukrainian revolution of February 2014, which ousted Russian ally President Viktor Yanukovych and ushered in a Western-leaning leadership, triggered an even more serious crisis in East-West relations - especially after Russia responded by annexing Crimea

The US, EU and other Western states accused Moscow of directly supporting the subsequent pro-Russian rebellions in eastern Ukraine

Imposed sanctions against businesses and individuals close to President Putin

The Russian Federation (4)The Russian Federation (4)

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Add to this Syria's increasing military support for the Assad government in Syria's civil war - some begin to fear the start of a protracted stand-off between West and Russia –

Even a new Cold WarRussia's recent economic power has lain in its key natural

resources - oil and gasThe energy giant Gazprom is close to the Russian state

and critics say it is little more than a tool used by the Kremlin to bolster control both at home and abroad

The Russian Federation (5)The Russian Federation (5)

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Moscow has more than once reminded the rest of the world of the power it wields as a major energy supplier - most recently in the Ukraine conflict in 2014

A long economic boom based on high oil and gas prices started to end in 2013, when Russia's economic prospects began to worsen

This was exacerbated by a sharp fall in world oil prices and the imposition of Western sanctions over Ukraine the following year

The country is now ruled by the ”St Petersburg set”

The Russian Federation (6)The Russian Federation (6)

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The economy is still too dependent on raw material exports - the Putin regime's reluctance to embark on reform to encourage diversification for fear of imperiling its control

Russians make up more than 80% of the population -Orthodox Christianity is the main religion - there are many other ethnic and religious groups - Muslims are concentrated among the Volga Tatars, the Bashkirs (North Caucasus)

Separatists and latterly armed Islamists have made the Caucasus region of Chechnya a war zone

The Russian Federation (7)The Russian Federation (7)

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The Russian Federation (8)The Russian Federation (8)

Area: 17.098.242 square kilometres - 11 time zones - comparison to the world: 1

Population: 143.375.006 million (2017 est.)Capital: Moscow (12 million) largest city in Russia1.8 times the size of the USA - 518 times Belgium9th in the ranking of the population numberEtnic groups Russian 77.7%, Tatar 3.7%, Ukrainian 1.4%,

Bashkir-Chuvash-Chechen 1%, other 10.2%, (2010 est.) - nearly 200 national and/or ethnic groups are represented

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Introduction - NameIntroduction - Name

Conventional long form: Russian Federation Conventional short form: Russia

Local long form: Rossiyskaya Federatsiya: Росс йская Федер ция и́ а́Local short form: Rossiya - Росс яи́

Former Russian EmpireRussian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic

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Map – general mapMap – general map15

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Map – general mapMap – general map16

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Map – surrounding countriesMap – surrounding countries17

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Map in perspectiveMap in perspective18

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People People

Median agetotal: 38.9 years male: 36.4 years female: 42.3 years (2016 est.)

Population growth rate - 0.05 % (2017 est.) - ranking 207thDeath rate is double the average for developed

countries

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People (1)People (1)

Life expectancy at birthtotal population: 70.8 years – USA 79.8 – EU 80.2 yearsmale: 65 years - female: 76.8 years (2016 est.)

country comparison to the world: 153Total fertility rate

1.67 children born/woman (2017 est.) country comparison to the world: 179thDeath rate 13.6 deaths/1.000 population (2016 est.) USA 8.2/1000 country comparison to the world: 10th

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People (2)People (2)

Infant mortality rate total: 6.9 deaths/ 1.000 live births - USA 5.8 deaths/1.000

live births - EU 4 deaths/1.000 live births country comparison to the world: 161thHIV/people living with HIV/aids 980.000 (2009 est.) - country comparison to the world: 12thLiteracy (definition: age 15 and over can read and write) total population: 99.7% male: 99.7% - female: 99.6% (2015

est.)

01-05-23 21

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People (4) Population PyramidPeople (4) Population Pyramid

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People (5) – the problem of RussiaPeople (5) – the problem of Russia

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Structure of RussiaStructure of Russia

Government typefederation

CapitalMoscow (S Sobaynin)

Administrative divisions46 oblasts, 21 republics, 4 autonomous okrugs,

9 krays, 2 federal cities

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Structure of Russia (1)Structure of Russia (1)

46 Oblasts to compare with a province 4 autonomous okrougs = districts - governor21 autonomous republics - a president,

parliament - a representative in the Duma9 autonomous krays = territories2 federal citiesEach 2 representatives in the federation council

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Administrative divisions

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Structure of Russia (2)Structure of Russia (2)South (*) including Crimea, annexed by Russia - 2014

Federal Districts: federalnyje okroega (8)

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Structure of Russia (3)Structure of Russia (3)

Federal districts: federalnyje okroega - groupings of the federal subjects of Russia

All federal units are grouped under 8 districtsHeaded by the governor-general - Nominated by the

president - Plenipotentiary Representative of the President - presidential decree

Since May 13 2000 created by Putin to have more power on internal affairs (terrorism)

To reassert federal authorityFederal districts are not provisioned by the Constitution of

Russia

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Structure of Russia (4)Structure of Russia (4)

Independence24 August 1991 (from Soviet Union)

National holidayRussia Day, 12 June (1990)

Constitutionadopted 12 December 1993

Now 23 years

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Structure of Russia (5)Structure of Russia (5)

Legal systembased on civil law system

Suffrage18 years of age – universal

Flag descriptionthree equal horizontal bands of white (top), blue, and red

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Structure of Russia – branches of power (6)Structure of Russia – branches of power (6)32

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Government profile – The executive BGovernment profile – The executive B

Executive BranchThe presidentoThe Presidential Executive OfficeThe governmentoThe prime ministeroThe deputy prime ministersoMinistersFederal services-agenciesSecurity councilState council

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Government Profile Government Profile

Executive branchChief of state:

President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin

Elected on March 4, 2012 (63.6 %)Elected for six years by the citizens on the basis of a

general, equal and direct vote by secret ballot

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Executive branchPrime minister: D Medvedev (former president)

First deputy prime minister: Igor Shuvalov (since May 2008)

GovernmentGovernment

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2012 - They changed of job2012 - They changed of job36

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Government (1)Government (1)

• Executive branchDeputy prime ministers: A Dvorkovich ( 2012), Olga

Golodets (2012), A Khloponin (2010), D Kozak (2008), D Rogozin (2011), Y Trutnev (2013), V Mutko (2016),

• S Prikhodko (2013) - head of the government executive office

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The Russian governmentThe Russian government

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Government (2)Government (2)

• Executive branchForeign affairs minister: Sergey Lavrov Finance minister: A SiluanovDefence minister: S ShoyguChief of the Government Staff: S Prikhodko

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Government (3)Government (3)

Ensures a financial, credit and monetary policy, a policy in the area of culture, science, education, health, social welfare, ecology, and other spheres of social life.

Is headed by the Prime Minister. It includes the deputy prime ministers and federal ministers. The Government includes federal structures and federal agencies

The Presidential Executive Office: providing support for the President’s work and monitoring implementation of the President’s decisions

Head Anton Vaino

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The new head of the staff of PutinThe new head of the staff of Putin

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Foreign Intelligence Service: called upon to protect individuals, society and the state from foreign threats - S Naryshkin

Federal Security Service (FSB) - A BortnikovFederal National Guard Service - V Zolotov Federal Guard Service: - D KochnevFederal Service for Financial Monitoring: responsible for countering

money laundering and terrorism financing – Y ChikhanchinFederal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and

Welfare: - A PopovaFederal Service for Environmental, Technological, and Nuclear

Supervision: - A Aleshin

Government (4)-Government (4)- Federal Services-AgenciesFederal Services-Agencies

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Rise of Viktor ZolotovChief of the Security of Prime Minister of Russia and

President of Russia Vladimir Putin (2000-2013)Now Director of the national guardMember of security council

New National Guard (4-1)New National Guard (4-1)

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The Presidential Executive Office (1) The Presidential Executive Office (1)

Supports the President’s work, including by preparing draft laws for the President to submit to the State Duma as legislative initiatives

Drawing up bills submit to the State Duma for consideration - repares drafts of decrees, orders, instructions - speeches and other documents (including the President’s Annual Address to the Federal Assembly)

Co-ordinates the work with political parties, non-governmental, non-profit organizations, unions, foreign governments and their representatives

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The Presidential Executive Office (2) The Presidential Executive Office (2)

Co-ordinates Russian and foreign politicians and public figures and international organizations

Analyzes all information on socioeconomic, political and legal trends both domestically and internationally -examines individual petitions and proposals from non-governmental or non-profit organizations, local authorities - reports to the President accordingly

Managed by the Chief of Staff Anton Vaino

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A Vaino: chief of staff – burocrat – Tallinn – worked in governmental staff – was deputy chief

S Kiriyenko: first deputy chief of staff - Union of Right Forces party - Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Volga Federal District

Alexey A Gromov: first deputy chief of staff – former diplomat – former press attache of Putin

Dmitry Peskov: presidential press secretary

The Presidential Executive Office (3)The Presidential Executive Office (3)

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The Security Council (5)The Security Council (5)

Encompasses the security of the individual, society and the state in the face of both internal and external threats - Composed of key ministers and agency heads

Involves priority areas: state security, public safety, socioeconomic security, security in the spheres of defense, information, the military and international affairs

Draws up crucial documents defining conceptual approaches to national security

Secretary: N. PatrushevAdvisory institution

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Meeting with the security councilMeeting with the security council

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Security Council MembersSecurity Council Members

Prime ministerChief of Staff Presidential Executive OfficeFederation Council SpeakerState Duma SpeakerSecurity Council SecretaryForeign Minister

Interior MinisterDefence MinisterDirector Federal Security Service (FSB)Director Foreign Intelligence ServiceSpecial Presidential Representative for Environmental Protection, Ecology,Transport

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The State Council (6)The State Council (6)

Chairman: the presidentMembers: the speaker of the federation council - the

speaker of the state duma - presidential plenipotentiary envoys to the federal districts - senior officials in Russia’s federal constituent entities - heads of the political parties - individuals holding senior official positions (state and civic)

Advisory body that assists the President in guaranteeing coordinated functioning and interaction of the various state bodies of power

Secretary: Igor Levitin

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The State CouncilThe State Council

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Government Profile (7)Government Profile (7)

Legislative branch – chapter 5 constitutionBi-cameral Federal Assembly or Federalnoye Sobraniye:

The Federation Council or Sovjet Federatsii Duma or Gosudarstvennaya Duma

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Legislative branch: Federation Council 170 seats - consists of two delegates from each Russian

constituent component (83)One representing the given region's legislative assembly

(member of the component region's legislative assembly) -The other representing the provincial executive authorities (appointed by the Governor)

Chairman: Valentina MatviyenkoTask:The Council is charged in cooperating with the Duma in completing and voting on draft laws

Government Profile (8)Government Profile (8)

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Government Profile (9)Government Profile (9)

Legislative branch: State DumaSpeaker V Volodin - important for the party United Russiao 450 seats - 225 elected from party lists in a single nationwide

constituency on proportional basis (5 % of the vote) – 225 seats are elected in single-member constituencies using the first-past-the-post system

o Members elected for 4 yearso Elections – last held 18 September 2016o Is mainly a legislative bodyo Adopts decrees on issues relating to its authority by the Constitution

of the Russian Federation

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Government Profile - Duma (10)Government Profile - Duma (10)

Party % of votes SeatsUnited Russia 53.3 343Communist Party 14.1 42Liberal Democratic Party 14.04 39A Just Russia 6.18 23Rodina – CPI - Independant 3

Total 450 Turnout of 47% = low

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The Bloomberg view of the seatsThe Bloomberg view of the seats

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Government Profile - Duma (10-1)Government Profile - Duma (10-1)

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Government Profile - Duma (10-2)Government Profile - Duma (10-2)

206 constituencies with United Russia candidate: they won 203 –19 constituencies without United Russia candidate: 7 won by A Just Russia - 5 by Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 4 by Communist Party, and 1 each by an independent candidate, Civic Platform and Rodina

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Putin Domination in the DumaPutin Domination in the Duma

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The turnover since 2003The turnover since 2003

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Election Day – United Russia celebratesElection Day – United Russia celebrates

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Juridical branchThe Constitutional Court`s main purpose is to make

certain that the Russian federal decrees are in harmony with the Russian Constitution - consists of 19 members

Supreme Court of the Russian Federation responsible for the supervision of all commercial, administrative and criminal cases - 170 members to be selected by a special exam – Saint Petersburg – Yury Chaika prosec.-general

o “The Kremlin’s power over the country’s judicial system”

The juridical branch The juridical branch

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Juridical branch - Supreme Court Organized into the:o Judicial Panel for Civil Affairso The Judicial Panel for Criminal Affairs o The Military Panelo Country’s highest judicial authority for appeals, civil, criminal,

administrative cases, military cases, and the disciplinary judicial board

o Jurisdiction over economic disputes

The juridical branch(1) The juridical branch(1)

V Lebedev Chief Supreme Court

Yuri Chaika prosecutor-general

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Juridical branchAll members of the courts appointed by the Federation

Council upon nomination by the President Subordinate courts:o Higher Arbitration Court - regional (kray) - provincial (oblast)

courtso Moscow and St. Petersburg city courtso Autonomous province and district courtso The 14 Russian Republics have court systems specified by

their own constitutions

The juridical branch (2) The juridical branch (2) V Zorkin President Constitutional Court

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Constitutional court meetingConstitutional court meeting

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Putin 60 years old - ProtestPutin 60 years old - Protest

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““Femen” protesting against PutinFemen” protesting against Putin

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The president – powers – CV – familyThe president – powers – CV – familyVladimir Vladimirovich Putin

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The PresidentThe President

The presidency: created in December 1993, when Boris Yeltsin's draft constitution won endorsement in a national referendum

Yeltsin was the first Russian president in the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR), one of the Soviet Union’s fifteen republics

V Putin is now presidenthttp://eng.letters.kremlin.ru/send

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Putin again president – for 12 Y?Putin again president – for 12 Y?

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The President (1)The President (1)

The position of the president is defined in Chapter 4 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation

He is the head of stateHe is the guarantor of the constitution, civil and human

rights and freedomsHe should protect Russia's sovereignty, independence

and territorial integrity

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He is able to issue decrees.He is commander-in-chief of the armed forces.He conducts the negotiations and signing of inter-national

treaties to ensure Russia’s sovereignty.He is responsible for the national security agenciesHe represents Russia in international relations, conducts

negotiations and signs international treaties and agreements.

He is responsible for the annual budget.

The President (2)The President (2)

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The President (3)The President (3)

He may veto legislation after it has been passed by the federal legislature

He determines the composition of the government He is the chairman of the Security CouncilHis basic state policy guidelines is laid out in a key

document, the annual address to the Federal Assembly

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The President (4)The President (4)

Born: October 7, 1952 in a workers familyGraduated from Leningrad State University Law School

(1975)1997 Ph. D in Economics – Dissertation: “Strategic

Planning of Regional Raw Material Operations in a Market Economy”

1975 joined the KBG in charge of intelligence abroadTwo daughters: Maria (1985), Katerina (1986).

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The President (5)The President (5)

Worked in Germany (Dresden ’85-’90)90-91: advisor of the Leningrad City Council91-96: chairman of the Committee for External

Relations, St. Petersburg Mayor’s office97-98: deputy head of Presidential Administration

(protected by Chubais)

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The President (6)The President (6)

98-99: director of Federal Security Service (FSB)99 (August): secretary of security council99-2000: prime minister99 (December)-2000 (May) acting president2000 (March) elected president2004 (March) re-elected (70%)2007 - 2016 Named Time magazine's person of the year2008 Prime Minister2012 Re-elected president for another 6 years

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Approval of Putin/Russian Governement - %Approval of Putin/Russian Governement - %‘12: Ratings fell down to 63%. After the annexation of Crimea the ratings soared to nearly 90%. Even a recession, falling real wages and rampant inflation have barely dented his numbers

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Putin’s public trust ratingPutin’s public trust rating

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Approval of Putin’s actionsApproval of Putin’s actions

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Eric Van CauwenbergeDo you approve the activities of V Putin as the president?

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Putin is always “late”Putin is always “late”

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The President (recent pictures)The President (recent pictures)82

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The President (recent pictures)The President (recent pictures)

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The Putin familyThe Putin family84

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The Putin familyThe Putin family85

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Ludmilla has a new “friend”Ludmilla has a new “friend”

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The Putin family – the secund daughterThe Putin family – the secund daughter

31 August 1986- Ekaterina Vladimirovna Tikhonova - rock 'n' roll dancer and scientist

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Putin and the churchPutin and the church

For many analysts the term Russky mir, or Russian World, epitomizes an expansionist and messianic Russian foreign policy, the perverse intersection of the interests of the Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church

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Putin – annual press conferencePutin – annual press conference

o Selected audience

o Stricted direction

o Selected questions

o Blame the West

o Admit there are economic problems

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Putin – annual press conferencePutin – annual press conference

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Putin – annual press conferencePutin – annual press conference

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Putin – annual press conferencePutin – annual press conference

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Putin – annual press conferencePutin – annual press conference

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The new challengers of Putin?The new challengers of Putin?

Mikhail Khodorkovsky – movement Open Russia"Putinisme is authoritarian state capitalism built around a single leader”Gary Kasparov – former chess grandmaster

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FSB – managementFSB – management

Federal Security Service (FSB)Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti

FSB is a federal executive body with the authority to implement government policy in the national securityThe protection and defense of the state border of the

Russian FederationCounterterrorismExercising the basic functions of the federal security

services specified in the Russian legislation

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FSB – management (1)FSB – management (1)

Federal Security Service (FSB)Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti

The protection of internal sea waters, the territorial sea, the exclusive economic zone, the continental shelf and their natural resources

Ensuring the information security of Russia Coordinating the counterintelligence efforts of the federal

executive bodies that have the power to do soDirector – Alexander BortnikovCloser to Medvedev than the Kremlin siloviki!

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Economic profile – growth GDP vs OilpriceEconomic profile – growth GDP vs Oilprice

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Economic Profile (1)– World Bank viewEconomic Profile (1)– World Bank view

Economy – overviewThe Russian economy inches forward : will that suffice to turn the tide?Global growth is weak - It slowed down to 2.2 % in the first half of 2016The recession continues in Russia - although the pace of (GDP- gross domestic product) decline has slowed down2016: Russia continued its adjustment to lower oil prices in an environment of economic sanctions

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Economic Profile (2)– World Bank viewEconomic Profile (2)– World Bank view

Economy – overviewThe Russian economy inches forward : will that suffice to turn the tide?A sustained fall in real incomes kept domestic demand depressed - the unfavorable external conditions repeatedly affected Russia’s economic growthThe recession has continued (albeit at a slower pace)Grow by 1.5 % in 2017 * 1.7 % 2018, as hydrocarbon prices are forecast to continue recovering and positively affect domestic demand

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Economic Profile (3)– World Bank viewEconomic Profile (3)– World Bank view

Economy – overviewThe Russian economy inches forward : will that suffice to turn the tide?Despite adverse terms of international trade and restricted access to international capital markets - the balance of payments is stableUnemployment: 5.6 % Inflation: 7.4 % (Oct. 2016) – less than half of the 15.9 % in the same period in 2015

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Economic Profile (4) – World Bank viewEconomic Profile (4) – World Bank view

Economy – overviewThe Russian economy inches forward : will that suffice to turn the tide?Disposable income continues to decline in real terms - 5.8 % (in the first eight months of 2016)2016 (first half): 21.4 million people (14.6 % of the population) had incomes below the national poverty line + 8% increase in the share of the vulnerable population – incomes per capita below US$ 10 /day

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Economic Profile Economic Profile

GDP – 1.326 tril. US$ * 1.248,59 tril. Euro - EU 16.27 tril. US$ *15.3216 tril. Euro – 7th

GDP per capita: 26.100 US$ (2016) * Euro 24.395 Eurozone: Euro 31.213

GDP – composition by sector of origin: agriculture 4,7 %, industry 33,1 % services 62,2 % (2016

est)Labour force - by occupation:

agriculture 9,4%, industry 27,6%, services 63% (2014)Russia is building pipelines to Europe but much of its

own country has no gas or even plumbing

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Economic Profile (1)Economic Profile (1)

Oil - production 10.25 million bbl/day (2015 est.) 1th

Refined petroleum products - production 6.053 million bbl/day (2014 est.) 4th

Oil - proved reserves 80 billion bbl (2016 est.) 7th

Crude Oil exports 4.888 million bbl/day (2013 est.) 2th

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Economic Profile (2)Economic Profile (2)

Natural gas - production603,9 billion m³ (2014 est.) 2th

Natural gas - exports184,5 billion m³ (2014 est.) 1st

Natural gas - proved reserves47.8 trillion m³ (2016 est.) 1st

Diamonds35 million carats - worth $1.7 billion (2006)

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Economy Profile (3)Economy Profile (3)

Exports259.3 billion US$ (2016 est.) * 241.2 billion Euro (2015) 20th - USA 1.51 tril.US$ *1.42 tril. Euro - EU 2.259 tril. US$ *2,4013 tril. Euro

Exports – commodities petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, metals,

wood and wood products, chemicals, and a wide variety of civilian and military manufactures

Exports – partners Netherlands 11.9%, China 8.3%, Germany 7.4%, Italy

6.5%, Turkey 5.6%, Belarus 4.4%, Japan 4.2% (2015)

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Economy Profile (4)Economy Profile (4)

Imports 165.1 bill. US$ (2016 est.- 25th) * 153.11 bill. Euro – USA

2.273 tril. US$ * 2.2730 tril Euro – EU 2.249 tril. US$ * 2.1165 tril. Euro

Imports - commodities machinery, vehicles, pharmaceutical products, plastic,

semi-finished metal products, meat, fruits and nuts, optical and medical instruments, iron, steel

Imports - partnersChina 19.8%, Germany 11.2%, United States 6.4%, Italy 4.6%, Belarus 4.8 % (2015)

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Trade partners of Russia – Export (1)Trade partners of Russia – Export (1)

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Trade partners of Russia – Import (2)Trade partners of Russia – Import (2)

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EP (5)-Trade of Russia with the world EP (5)-Trade of Russia with the world

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EP – Brent Crude Oil price - $ - barrelEP – Brent Crude Oil price - $ - barrel

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Economy Profile (12)Economy Profile (12)

CurrencyRussian ruble (RUR) - Governor Elvira Nabiullina

Exchange rates –collapse of the RubbleRussian rubles per US dollar: 59.90 (2017)- 64.72 (2016)

- 60.22 (2015)- 54.28 (2014) – 31.8 (2013) – 30.84 (2012) – 30.37 (2010) - 31.74 (2009) - 24.85 (2008) - 25.581 (2007) - 27.191 (2006) - 28.284 (2005), 28.814 (2004), 30.692 (2003)

Russian rubles per EURO: 64.63 - 68.52 - 86.49 – 68.74 - 50.47 in 2013

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Putin and Governor Elvira NabiullinaPutin and Governor Elvira Nabiullina

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Some Russian banknotesSome Russian banknotes113

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Russian GDP since 1989Russian GDP since 1989

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Russia - the other brics – grow GDPRussia - the other brics – grow GDP

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Russian Oil reserve – billion barrelsRussian Oil reserve – billion barrels

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Russian Oil production – Russian Oil production – 534.1 million 534.1 million metric tonnesmetric tonnes

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Russia – Proved natural gas reservesRussia – Proved natural gas reserves

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Biggest employer of Russia (462.400)The world's largest company in terms of natural gas

reserves - 36.14 trillion m3 of gas (2015) - 418,5 billion m3 gas produced - exported 179.3 billion m³ of gas to Europe

European market 30% of total gas consumption and 64.3% of total imports

EU market these figures were 29.3% - 43.1%Russian state owns 50 % of the stocksChain of pipelines: Blue Stream, North Stream,

Turkstream, Yamal (European pipeline)

GazpromGazprom

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Position of Gazprom (1)Position of Gazprom (1)

Now own fillingstations - Bulgaria

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Gazprom and partners (2)Gazprom and partners (2)

Key International Partners: o E.ON - BASF – Wintershall - Verbundnetz Gas – VNG -

Siemens (Germany) * Eni (Italy)o ENGIE – EDF – Total (France) * OMV (Austria)o Botas (Turkey) * Pagnig (Poland) * MOL (Hungary)o EDF - Total (France) * SPP (Slovakia) * EAD (Bulgaria)o Gasunie – GasTerra (Netherlands) * CNPC (China)o Fortum (Finland) * Srbijagas (Serbia)o Dong Energy (Denmark)o Statoil (Norway) + Shell international

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Gazprom – meeting shareholders (3)Gazprom – meeting shareholders (3)122

Alexy Miller: Chairman of Gazprom's Management Committee - Deputy Chairman of Gazprom's Board of DirectorsViktor Zubkov Chairman of the Board of Directors, Russian Special Presidential Representative for Cooperation with Gas Exporting Countries Forum

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Gas sales (bcm³) % - 2014 (4)Gas sales (bcm³) % - 2014 (4)

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Gas export volumes Europe (bcm³) –2015Gas export volumes Europe (bcm³) –2015Gas supplies to Europe in 2015: 152.7 billion m³

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Gas export volumes Central-East Europe Gas export volumes Central-East Europe (bcm³) -2015(bcm³) -2015

26.3 billion m³

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Gas export volumes FSU (bcm³) -2014-2015Gas export volumes FSU (bcm³) -2014-201540.3 billion cubic m³

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Share of Russian gas consumption - %Share of Russian gas consumption - %

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The purpose of the Blue Stream gas main is to directly supply Russian gas to Turkey and bypass transit countries

The 1.213 km long gas pipeline consists of an overland and a submerged section

The design capacity of Blue Stream equals 16 billion m³ of gas per annum

In 2014 Blue Stream conveyed 14.4 billion m³ of gas - In May 2015 the total volume of gas supplied via Blue Stream exceeded 117 billion m³

Blue Stream pipelineBlue Stream pipeline

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Blue Stream pipeline in the systemBlue Stream pipeline in the systemItalian Eni – Gazprom’s key partner in Blue Stream construction

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TurkStream is a new export gas pipeline - from Russia to Turkey across the Black Sea - Turkish consumers - Southern and southeastern Europe – 2 pipelines

Will have the throughput capacity of 15.75 billion m³ each Dec. 2014, Gazprom and Botas Petroleum Pipeline

Corporation signed the Memorandum - 2016 AgreementWill start on the Russian coast (Anapa) - 900 km through

the Black Sea to come ashore Thrace region of TurkeyGazprom & South Stream (Amsterdam)2019

TurkStream gas pipelineTurkStream gas pipeline

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TurkStream gas pipelineTurkStream gas pipeline

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Yamal gas pipelineYamal gas pipeline Russia, Belarus, Russia, Belarus, Poland, GermanyPoland, Germany

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North Stream Pipeline - readyNorth Stream Pipeline - ready133

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The founder: Government of the Russian FederationProvision of services for oil and oil products transportation

via the trunk pipelines system within the Russian Federation and abroad

Cooperation between pipeline enterprises of other states on the issues of oil and oil products transportation in line with the intergovernmental agreements

TransneftTransneft

A V Novak - Minister of Energy - Chairman of the Board of Directors

N Tokarev President of Transneft

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Transneft – pipelines (1)Transneft – pipelines (1)135

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2 % of global production of crude oil – V AlekperovThe largest privately owned oil & gas company in the world

by proved oil reserves - Employs 110.000 peopleFull production cycle to control the entire value chain from

upstream to downstream - 13.594 billion barrels of oil and 23.946 trillion cubic feet of gas

Proved The first Russian company to receive full listing on the London Stock Exchange

LUKOilLUKOilPresident of LUKOIL

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Implementing oil & gas exploration and production projects in 12 countries

Oil refineries in 5 countries Russian and international markets - 16.4% of Russian oil

production - 15.7% of Russian oil refining - Every day millions of people in 30 countries of the world buy their products

2.481 filling stations (including franchises) and 84 storage facilities with total capacity of 0.84 mln m³

LUKoil (1)LUKoil (1) Valery Grayfer : Chairman of the Board of Directors

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Filling Stations – LUKOil (2) – 24 countriesFilling Stations – LUKOil (2) – 24 countries

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Largest oil and gas company in Russia - the world’s largest publicly traded petroleum company – 10 refineries

Main activities: prospecting + exploration of hydrocarbon deposits – oil - gas + gas-condensate production - upstream offshore projects – processing

Oil, gas, and product marketing in Russia and abroad69.5% state-owned - BP holds 19.75% - 10% of shares are

in free-float - Retail network covers 59 regions of the Russian Federation - Owns 50% of Ruhr Oel GmbH (refineries in Germany)

RosneftRosneftIgor Sechin (CEO & Chairman of Management Board)

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A framework for exchanging experience + information among Member Countries - objective to increase the level of coordination and strengthen - international governmental organization - gathering of the world’s leading gas producers - The Secretariat is the executive body - Seyed Mohammad Hossein Adeli (CEO-Iran)

Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela. Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, Norway - Oman and Peru: Observer Members

Gas exporting forumGas exporting forum

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Eurasian Economic UnionEurasian Economic Union

Vladimir Putin's - Restoring Big Soviet DreamSupreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting Tigran Sargsyan

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International organization for regional economic integration Provides for free movement of goods, services, capital and

labor, pursues coordinated, harmonized and single policy in the sectors - The Supreme Council is the Union's supreme authority - Chairman: Tigran Sarkisyan

Armenia – Belarus – Kazakhstan - Kyrgyz Republic - the Russian Federation

A single economic market of 182.7 million people – 3 % of the world GDP – 3.7% of the global production – 3 % of the world export - Oil production: 607.5 million ton (1st in the world) - Gas production: 682.6 million m³ (2nd in de world)

Eurasian Economic UnionEurasian Economic Union

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The EU and Russia have a strong trade relationship - Bilateral trade and investments continue to grow rapidly

The EU has been a strong supporter of Russia's WTO membership since the very start of the process to the end of it

Russia joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 22 August 2012 - This accession is important for the EU

Membership will give a major boost to further development of the economic relationship between the EU and Russia

Russia and the EURussia and the EU

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Third trading partner of the EU - EU is the first trading partner of Russia

EU exports to Russia are dominated by machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, medecines and agricultural products

Foreign direct investment

Russia and the EU (1)Russia and the EU (1)

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EU imports from Russia: raw materials - oil (crude and refined) gas - Russia has committed in the WTO to freeze or reduce its export duties

The EU is the most important investor in RussiaIt is estimated that up to 75% of Foreign Direct Investment

stocks in Russia come from EU Member States (including Cyprus)

The Russian Federation's role in the Ukraine conflict has seriously affected EU-Russia

Russia and the EU (2)Russia and the EU (2)

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In response to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea and continuing destabilization of Ukraine - including aggression by Russian armed forces on Ukrainian soil - the EU has suspended talks on visas and a new EU-Russia agreement

Most EU-Russia cooperation programs have been suspended

Targeted measures have been taken including:o Access to capital marketso Defenseo Dual-use goods

Russia and the EU (3) - SanctionsRussia and the EU (3) - Sanctions

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Targeted measures have been taken including:o Sensitive technologies (including those in the energy

sector)The European Investment Bank and the European Bank

for Reconstruction and Development have suspended the signing of new financing operations in Russia

The duration of the sanctions to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreements

December 2016 - the Council prolonged the economic sanctions until 31 July 2017

Russia and the EU (4) - SanctionsRussia and the EU (4) - Sanctions

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Total goods: EU Trade flows and balance, Total goods: EU Trade flows and balance, annual data 2005 – 2015 (5)annual data 2005 – 2015 (5)

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EU Trade Goods-Services 2013 – 201EU Trade Goods-Services 2013 – 2015 (6)5 (6)

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EU Import of natural gas by source (7)EU Import of natural gas by source (7)

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EU import from Russia (8)EU import from Russia (8)

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EU export to Russia (7)EU export to Russia (7)

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Bribery + corruption have become endemicBribery + corruption have become endemic

According to economist Alexandra Kalinina, despite the improved score, corruption in Russia remains “not a problem, but a business.”

Ordinary Russians describe the level has “high” or “very high” - Bribe of survival (Yukos)

Independent experts maintain that corruption consumes as much of 25 % of Russia’s GDP - A World Bank report puts this figure at 48 %

Corruption has penetrated all levels of government and most other aspects of life in Russia

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Bribery + corruption have become endemicBribery + corruption have become endemic

The most corrupt spheres (in terms of household corruption): healthcare, education, housing and communal services

Law-enforcement agencies (including the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate) – on top of the sphere

Russians have more words for “bribe” then the Eskimos for “snow”

Russian Public Television, theoretically an autonomous institution, is dependent on the state - the president appoints its general manager and board of directors

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Corruption Perceptions ranking –Corruption Perceptions ranking –Transparency International 2017Transparency International 2017

Perception index: Score 29/100 Rank 131/176Bribe payers index: Rank 28/28 – Score 6,1/10Control of corruption: 13%

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Corruption Index - EvolutionCorruption Index - Evolution

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Putin cartoonPutin cartoon157

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Russia and the financial crisisRussia and the financial crisis158

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Some cartoonsSome cartoons159

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Some cartoonsSome cartoons

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Some cartoonsSome cartoons

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Gazprom-Media-Holding: a leading media company in the production, distribution and promotion of entertainment and information content across all media platforms

Owns and operates a wide-ranging portfolio of renowned news and entertainment television brands, radio and print press assets, online resources, film production and advertising companies

Offer high information, entertainment and analytic value for a mass audience and are in demand throughout Russia and the foreign markets - D Chernyshenko CEO

Gazprom media holdingGazprom media holding

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In 2000 it acquired NTV (the only nationwide state-independent television in Russia of the time) + the media assets of V Gusinsky's Media Most group - which raised a major controversy and resulted in considerable changes in their editorial policy

In 2005 Gazprom-Media purchased Izvestia, a leading nationwide newspaper - Gazprom sold the group to Gazprombank

6 TV channels, 28 thematic TV-channels, 10 radio’s, 3 internet companies, 1 satelitte TV-provider, 23 websites

Gazprom media holdingGazprom media holding

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Blog of Alaksy NavalnyBlog of Alaksy Navalny

Sometimes in prison and releasedA blog is difficult to stop – anti-corruption site: RospilUnited Russia “the party of thieves and crooks” is one of

his sayings - The Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) Has set out claims linking a notorious criminal gang and a

series of questionable property deals to the family of the man at the top of Russia’s judicial system: the prosecutor general, Yuri Chaika.

Called to “protest” against the fraude in the electionsMaybe is able to unite the oppositon – Progress Party

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Alaksy NavalnyAlaksy Navalny

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Frozen Conflicts: Transnistria-Moldova, South-Ossetia, and the Russian-Georgian dispute“ - Abkhazia - Nagorno-Karabach - Human rigths in South Caucasus area –Cechnia-Dagestan

Ukraine –The Krim – occupied and a piece of Russia The east of Ukraine invaded and Russian troops – country

destabilised – war is still going on – different groups fighting

Who shot down the Malaysia passenger plane?Should we be afraid of Russia? New cold war = Medvedev

Geo-politics of RussiaGeo-politics of Russia

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Frozen conflicts – Nagorno KarabakhFrozen conflicts – Nagorno Karabakh

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Frozen conflicts - TransnistriaFrozen conflicts - Transnistria

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Frozen conflicts - GeorgiaFrozen conflicts - Georgia

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Frozen conflicts – Ukraine - CrimeaFrozen conflicts – Ukraine - Crimea

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Why is the EU so weak in international politics? – EU sanctions – smart ones – Russia has now economic

problems with investments and the weak RubbleWho is next? What with recognized borders?What will Trump do, regarding to Russia?The cease fire of Minsk? – The shooting is going on -

NATO is constructing a rapid intervention forceGas as a weapon of war – price differancesThe Syria crisis Russia active involved – double roleEffects on elections: Estonia, Bulgaria, Moldavia

Geo-politics of Russia (1)Geo-politics of Russia (1)

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OligarchsOligarchs

Oligarch is a synonym of “business magnate” = a person who controls a large position of a particular industry - Financed the re-election of Yeltsin in 1996 and get of lot of power

Russian oligarchs lose US$11bn in just 10 days during oil price crash

R Abramovich is estimated to have lost US$ 820 mil. –V Potanin - mining companies has seen losses of up to US$1.3 bn - his net worth fell to US$13.3 bn

A Usmanov - steel tycoon who owns 1/3 of Arsenal - is estimated to have lost US$ 910 mil

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Off the rich – Russia – Rest of worldOff the rich – Russia – Rest of world

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Protest march in MoscouProtest march in Moscou

Anti-Maidan-protest - "For Russia and Ukraine without Putin!", Moscow, 15 March 2014

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Protest march in MoscouProtest march in MoscouAnti-Putin-protest - 'Hands off Ukraine'

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B Nemtsov – shot dead – feb 2015B Nemtsov – shot dead – feb 2015

Rememberance : his report

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Protest march in MoscouProtest march in MoscouTo remember Boris Nemtsov

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Heroes never dieHeroes never die

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March 15 Memory of NemtsovMarch 15 Memory of Nemtsov

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The military branchThe military branchChief of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov

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The military branchThe military branch

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Post Sovjet Union – Wealthiest countriesPost Sovjet Union – Wealthiest countries

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The “faces” of RussiaThe “faces” of Russia

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The biggest annoyance of the RussiansThe biggest annoyance of the Russians184

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The biggest annoyance of the RussiansThe biggest annoyance of the RussiansHow expensive is a bottle of Vodka?

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Rusians buy “foreign” productsRusians buy “foreign” products

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The Russian bear knows the facts

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SourcesSources

www.indexmundi.comwww.russiaprofile.orghttp://news.bbc.co.uk/www.nvcreports.com/

developmentofrussianeconomysincethecollapseofthesovietunioncontrastedwiththeuseconomy.html

http://vladimirputin.4u.ru/www.economist.comhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Indexhttp://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/

WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=RU

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SourcesSources

www.ceriseonline.bewww.fas.org/irp/world/russia/fsbwww.mosnews.com/mn-files - http://en.wikipedia.org/wikiwww.waytorussia.nethttp://ec.europa.eu/education/lifelong-learning-

programme/erasmus_en.htmhttp://www.rferl.org/content/key-players-in-russias-new-

government/24588318.html?s=1http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-

GI-11-001/EN/KS-GI-11-001-EN.PDF

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SourcesSources

Different Belgian newpapers, magazineshttp://www.russiatoday.ru/en/politics/state/www.infoplease.com/ipawww.englishpen.org/writersintranslationwww.newtimes.ru/eng/persons.asp?www.tvradioworld.com/region3/rus/www.electionworld.org/russia.htmwww.theotherrussia.org/http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-

relations/countries/russia/

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