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Predictably and Irrationally Agile People behavior is one of the centerpieces of Agile software development. Cognitive Psychology and Behavioral Economics have helped us achieve a better understanding of some human seemingly idiosyncratic behaviors, for example, the decoy effect on the decision-making process. Agile teams are constantly making decisions, for instance, while prioritising, estimating stories or choosing the size of an iteration. This talk will compare and correlate Dan Ariely’s controlled experiments described in his book “Predictably Irrational” to Agile. The anticipated result should be an increased awareness of the reasoning behind some Agile values, principles and practices which, as a consequence, should improve the way we apply them as agile adopters and practitioners. http://fabiopereira.me/blog/2012/02/05/speaking-at-qcon-beijing/
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www.fabiopereira.me
Predictably and Irrationally
Agile
Who is this guy?
$ 59 $ 125 $ 125 16% 84% 0%
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68% 32% $ 59 $ 125
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$ 59 $ 125 $ 125
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DECOY
$ 59 $ 125
+ A B
$ 125
DECOY
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Psychology
Cognitive Psychology
Introspection
Scientific Method
Psychology
Cognitive Psychology
Economic Decisions/
Public Choice
AGILETEAMS
Blind Experiments
h$p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepsi_Challenge
Pepsi Challenge
Placebo
• Individuals and interactions over processes and tools • Working software over comprehensive documentation • Customer collaboration over contract negotiation • Responding to change over following a plan
12 WEEK COURSE
Student Syndrome
“The goal of a #leanstartup is to move through the build-measure-learn feedback loop as quickly as possible”
“The goal of a #leanstartup is to move through the build-measure-learn feedback loop as quickly as possible”
I’d buy for $170 I’d sell for
$2400
Who changed
my precious code?!?!
Endowment Effect
Relativity
Shop Close Shop Far
$22 $15
$455 $448
Shop Close Shop Far
$22 $15
$455 $448
Gain
$7
$7
Shop Close Shop Far
$22 $15
$455 $448
Gain
$7
$7
31%
2%
Principle of Relative Priority
Principle of Relative Priority
Buying Features
Prioritising with poker chips
Planning Poker
Release Radar
Anchoring
SSN Initial Price? Bid Price
14 $14 $8 55 $55 $32
97 $97 $41
SSN Bid Price
00-19
80-99
X
Y Y = 3X
$5.00 159 $0.50 101 Zero: 168
Paid $ Result
Market Norms
Social Norms
Collectivism vs
Individualism
Cognitive Psychology Agile Teams
Procrastination Iterations
Continuous Delivery
Endowment Effect Collective Code Ownership
Relative Choice Principle of
Relative Priority
Anchoring Change over Plan
Market/Social Norms Individuals/Incentives/Morale
Predictably and Irrationally…
Agile www.fabiopereira.me
www.fabiopereira.me
References https://docs.google.com/Doc?id=ajk9hjp2k4px_10cfgw6h&pli=1 http://web.mit.edu/ariely/www/MIT/Papers/tom.pdf http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=243109 http://agilemanifesto.org/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect
Images h$p://agileboardhacks.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/release-‐radar.jpg h$p://www.officialpsds.com/images/thumbs/Fountain-‐Pen-‐psd17071.png h$p://www.bigmen.com/suits/images/ass_suit.jpg h$p://www.flickr.com/photos/blueheronco/5314331388/ h$p://issociate.elcom.com.au/Images/UserUploadedImages/189/Big-‐fish-‐small-‐pond-‐vice-‐versa.jpg h$p://happyhonkers.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/clouds-‐in-‐blue-‐sky.jpg h$p://environmentalgateway.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2010/07/Psychotherapy.jpg h$p://communicaXons.nuim.ie/images/yakultlaunchChemistryScienceExperimentPic.jpg h$p://preventcancer.aicr.org/images/content/pagebuilder/10387.jpg h$p://www.freestockphotography.com.au/stockimages/276.jpg h$p://informedfarmers.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2011/09/hay_bale.jpg h$p://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wdqqn17WEKY/TSS_7uP3OWI/AAAAAAAAINA/MnJ2DoAd-‐cI/s1600/cowpic.jpg h$p://www.chickenpickinchops.com/images/chicken2.jpg h$p://studenthacks.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2007/11/thesis-‐paper.jpg h$p://www.magicdesXnaXon.com/foz-‐de-‐iguassu/7774_235.jpg h$p://www.labsaofrancisco.com/imagens/laboratorio.jpg h$p://www.shescribes.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2010/12/Change-‐of-‐Plans-‐Logo.jpg
Thanks
www.fabiopereira.me
