StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©

NGF & 2015NGF & 2015NGF & 2015NGF & 2015ElectionsElectionsElectionsElections

The Nigeria Governors’ Forum was formed to promoteunity, good governance, better understanding and co-operation among the States and ensure a healthy andbeneficial relationship between the States and othertiers of government.

NGFNGFNGFNGF VisionVisionVisionVision:::: “An effective, proactive, inclusive, non-partisan forum which actively fosters, promotes andsustains democratic values, good governance andsustainable development in Nigeria”

NGFNGFNGFNGF MissionMissionMissionMission:::: “To provide a platform for collaborationamongst the Executive Governors on matters of publicpolicy; to promote good governance, sharing of goodpractice and to enhance cooperation at State level andwith other arms of government and society”

Being a group that operates at the second level ofgovernance, they play a vital role in strengtheningdemocracy in Nigeria. As already highlighted in theirVision and Mission, the success or failure of the NGFwould invariably affect governance and collaborationat all levels of government.

This study attempts to empirically measure therelevance of the NGF to the presidency as well aslikely derivations following the fallout of the justconcluded NGF election.

Leadership Leadership Leadership Leadership Since InceptionSince InceptionSince InceptionSince Inception

No.No.No.No. NameNameNameName GovernorGovernorGovernorGovernor TenureTenureTenureTenure

1 Alhaji (Dr.) Abdullahi Adamu Nasarawa 1999 – 2004

2 Arc. (Obong) Victor Attah Akwa Ibom 2004 – 2006

3 Mr. Lucky Igbinedion Edo 2006 – 2007

4 Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki Kwara 2007 – 2011

5 Rt. Hon. Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi Rivers 2011 – date

GovernorsGovernorsGovernorsGovernors

Theodore Orji

Isa Yuguda

Murtala Nyako

Abia

Abia

Abia

Abia

Adamawa

Adamawa

Adamawa

Adamawa

Akwa

Akwa

Akwa

Akwa-- -- Ib

om

Ibom

Ibom

Ibom

Godswill Akpabio Peter Obi

Anambra

Anambra

Anambra

Anambra

Bauch

iBauch

iBauch

iBauch

i

Henry Dickson

Bayelsa

Bayelsa

Bayelsa

Bayelsa

Martin Elechi

Cross R

ivers

Cross R

ivers

Cross R

ivers

Cross R

ivers

Liyel Imoke

Benue

Benue

Benue

Benue

Borno

Borno

Borno

Borno

Emmanuel UduaghanDelta

Delta

Delta

Delta

Ebonyi

Ebonyi

Ebonyi

Ebonyi

Edo

Edo

Edo

Edo

Adams Oshiomhole

Gabriel Suswam Kashim Shettima

GovernorsGovernorsGovernorsGovernors

Sullivan Chime

Mukhtar Yero

Idris Wada

Ibrahim Dankwambo

Enugu

Enugu

Enugu

Enugu

Rochas Okorocha

Sule Lamido

Jigawa

Jigawa

Jigawa

Jigawa

Kaduna

Kaduna

Kaduna

Kaduna

Rabiu Kwankwaso

Kano

Kano

Kano

Kano

Ibrahim Shema

Sa’idu Dankigari

Kebbi

Kebbi

Kebbi

Kebbi

Kogi

Kogi

Kogi

Kogi

Ibikunle Amosun

Kayode Fayemi

Kwara

Kwara

Kwara

Kwara

Abdulfatah Ahmed

Lagos

Lagos

Lagos

Lagos

Gombe

Gombe

Gombe

Gombe

Imo

Imo

Imo

Imo

Katsin

aKatsin

aKatsin

aKatsin

a

Ekiti

Ekiti

Ekiti

Ekiti

GovernorsGovernorsGovernorsGovernors

Umaru Al Makura

Rauf Aregbeshola

Aliyu Wamakko

Babangida Aliyu

Nasarawa

Nasarawa

Nasarawa

Nasarawa

Niger

Niger

Niger

Niger

Ogun

Ogun

Ogun

Ogun

Ibikunle Amosun Olusegun MimikoOndo

Ondo

Ondo

Ondo

Osu

nOsu

nOsu

nOsu

n

Abiola Ajimobi

Oyo

Oyo

Oyo

Oyo

Jonah Jang Rotimi Amaechi

Rivers

Rivers

Rivers

Rivers

Sokoto

Sokoto

Sokoto

Sokoto

Ibrahim Geidam Abdul-Aziz AbubakarTaraba

Taraba

Taraba

Taraba

Umar Garba

Plateau

Plateau

Plateau

Plateau

Zamfara

Zamfara

Zamfara

Zamfara

Yobe

Yobe

Yobe

Yobe

Governors & Political PartiesGovernors & Political PartiesGovernors & Political PartiesGovernors & Political PartiesStateStateStateState GovernorGovernorGovernorGovernor PartyPartyPartyParty

Abia Theodore Orji PDP

Adamawa Murtala Nyako PDP

Akwa Ibom Godswill Akpabio PDP

Anambra Peter Obi APGA

Bauchi Isa Yuguda PDP

Bayelsa Seriaki Dickson PDP

Benue Gabriel Suswam PDP

Borno Kashim Shettima ANPP

Cross River Liyel Imoke PDP

Delta Emmanuel Uduaghan PDP

Ebonyi Martin Elechi PDP

Edo Adams Oshiomhole ACN

Ekiti Kayode Fayemi ACN

Enugu Sullivan Chime PDP

Gombe Ibrahim Dankwambo PDP

Imo Rochas Okorocha APGA

Jigawa Sule Lamido PDP

Kaduna Mukhtar Yero PDP

StateStateStateState GovernorGovernorGovernorGovernor PartyPartyPartyParty

Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso PDP

Katsina Ibrahim Shema PDP

Kebbi Usman Dakingari PDP

Kogi Ibrahim Idris PDP

Kwara Abdulfatah Ahmed PDP

Lagos Babatunde Fashola ACN

Nasarawa Umaru Al-Makura CPC

Niger Babangida Aliyu PDP

Ogun Ibikunle Amosun ACN

Ondo Olusegun Mimiko LP

Osun Rauf Aregbesola ACN

Oyo Abiola Ajimobi ACN

Plateau Jonah Jang PDP

Rivers Rotimi Amaechi PDP

Sokoto Aliyu Wamakko PDP

Taraba Umar Garba PDP

Yobe Ibrahim Geidam ANPP

Zamfara Abdul'aziz Yari ANPP

Governors & Political PartiesGovernors & Political PartiesGovernors & Political PartiesGovernors & Political PartiesPartyPartyPartyParty StatesStatesStatesStates %%%%

PDP (People's Democratic Party) 23 63.89%

ACN (Action Congress of Nigeria) 6 16.67%

ANPP (All Nigeria People's Party) 3 8.33%

APGA (All Progressives Grand Alliance) 2 5.56%

CPC (Congress for Progressive Change) 1 2.78%

LP (Labour Party) 1 2.78%

PDP alone produced 23 (63.89%) of the 36 StateGovernors; if this also represents the true state ofelectorates in each State, the PDP would continueto rule as long as they remain united and keepmeeting the need of the Electorates.

The NGF ElectionThe NGF ElectionThe NGF ElectionThe NGF ElectionThe NGF elects their chairman every two years; andfrom all indication, no opposition party has any chanceof emerging the NGF Chairman. However, when 2 PDPgovernors are up for election, the opposition thereforebecomes the deciding factor of who wins.

In 2013 NGF Chairmanship Election; Jonah Jang(Governor of Plateau State) competed against theincumbent chairman – Rotimi Amaechi, the governor ofRivers State.

JonahJANGJonahJANGJonahJANGJonahJANG RotimiAMAECHIRotimiAMAECHIRotimiAMAECHIRotimiAMAECHI

The NGF Election ResultThe NGF Election ResultThe NGF Election ResultThe NGF Election ResultRotimi Amaechi emerged winner in the election

with 19 votes while Jonah Jang got 16.

JonahJANGJonahJANGJonahJANGJonahJANG RotimiAMAECHIRotimiAMAECHIRotimiAMAECHIRotimiAMAECHI

16 Votes16 Votes16 Votes16 Votes 19 Votes19 Votes19 Votes19 Votes

The NGF Voting DetailsThe NGF Voting DetailsThe NGF Voting DetailsThe NGF Voting Details

16 Votes16 Votes16 Votes16 Votes 19 Votes19 Votes19 Votes19 Votes35 Votes35 Votes35 Votes35 Votes

Liyel Imoke (Cross River); Segun Mimiko(Ondo); Emmanuel Uduaghan (Delta);Peter Obi (Anambra); Seriake Dickson(Bayelsa); Theodore Orji (Abia); RamalanYero (Kaduna); Ibrahim Dakwambo(Gombe); Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom);Idris Wada (Kogi); Ibrahim Shema (Katsina);Isa Yuguda (Bauchi); Martin Elechi (Ebonyi);Garba Umar (Taraba); and Gabriel Suswam(Benue)

Murtala Nyako (Adamawa); Kashim Shettima(Borno); Adams Oshiomhole (Edo); KayodeFayemi (Ekiti); Rochas Okorocha (Imo); SuleLamido (Jigawa); Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano);Usman Dakingari (Kebbi); Abdulfatah Ahmed(Kwara); Babatunde Fashola (Lagos); UmaruAl-Makura (Nasarawa); Babangida Aliyu(Niger); Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun); RaufAregbesola (Osun); Abiola Ajimobi (Oyo);Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto); and Abdul'aziz Yari(Zamfara)

PDP = 14, APGA = 1, LP = 1

PDP = 8, ACN = 6, ANPP = 3, APGA = 1,

CPC = 1

If the status quo remains till the 2015 general elections,the PDP might need to go some extra miles to continueto hold power at the centre.

The NGF & 2015 Election ProjectionThe NGF & 2015 Election ProjectionThe NGF & 2015 Election ProjectionThe NGF & 2015 Election Projection

2011 General Election2011 General Election2011 General Election2011 General Election

The PDP won massively in most southern States, following the current state of the polity, it is debatable if this feat can be achieved again.

Jonah Jang was the preferred candidate and all PDPgovernors were supposed to vote for him, howeversome governors were not in support of thisarrangement and they decided to support RotimiAmaechi who is not in the good books of the PDPchieftains.

Despite the result; Jonah Jang declared himself thewinner, thereby forming a faction with 15 otherGovernors and Rotimi Amaechi as the chairman of theother faction with 18 Governors.

As it stands, 2 NGF Chairman existAs it stands, 2 NGF Chairman existAs it stands, 2 NGF Chairman existAs it stands, 2 NGF Chairman existJonah Jang with Jonah Jang with Jonah Jang with Jonah Jang with 15 Governors15 Governors15 Governors15 Governors

RotimiRotimiRotimiRotimi AmaechiAmaechiAmaechiAmaechiwith 18 Governorswith 18 Governorswith 18 Governorswith 18 Governors

If election among 36 Governors resulted in factions,what is the fate of a general election covering over160million electorates?

If the NGF election is a reflection of what is expectedin 2015; it is important now that democraticinstitutions speak up and condemn the undemocratichold on power by one of the factions of the NGF.

The Judiciary and the INEC need to use this as alearning curve on how disputes such as this would beresolve in a timely and democratic mannerperadventure matters such as this re-surfaces in 2015.

Freely share use and acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah

Analysis by: Wale Micaiah

e: walegate@yahoo.com

m: 08078001800

b: walemicaiah.blog.com

w. www.statisense.info