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An updated overview of the Nanosatellite industry. I will post an update every few months This presentation includes a chapter called Myths vs Facts
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Nanosatellite Industry Overview
February 2014 Update
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview
Content of the Presentation
• Introduction
• Trends and Hot Topics
• Myths Vs. Facts
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20142
Cut to the Chase
• COTS in LEO has proven to be eminently capable … yet end-users exhibit strong reluctance to use it.
• Community has not learned the lesson of PC vs. Mac• Perfect is the enemy of Good Enough … If you aim for
perfect in nanosats, you will miss the cost-effective solution
• Like PCs, CubeSats are disposable (plan to 3-5 years missions)
Andrew E. Kalman, President & CTO, Pumpkin, Inc.Director, SSDL, Stanford University, July 2012
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20143
Introduction (1)
• Satellites are categorized by their weightaccording to the following key:– Less than 1 kg: Pico satellite
– Less than 10 kg: Nano satellite
– Less than 100 kg: Micro satellite
• Recently NASA AMES changed the scale– Less than 5kg: Pico satellite
– Less than 50kg: Nano satellite
– Less than 200 kg: Micro satellite
Credit: NASAPariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20144
Introduction (2)
• Nanosatellite Market growing rapidly – Cubesats: Conception in 2000 – First missions launched in 2003 – 10-20 projects in 2004 – >300 projects ongoing now (estimate)– Since 2013, more than 70 launched per year– Projections indicate substantial growth in
nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range more than 400 that will need launches globally in 2020
• Change of users from educational and institutional to application focused
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20145
Past Launches
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20146
CubeSatShop – The “AMAZON” of the Industry
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20147
Or like this
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20148
A satellite inside a satellite inside a satellite
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 20149
Trends and Hot Topics
•Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview•Feb 2014•10
CubeSat Generations
• 1st : Modern Sputniks
• 2nd : Utility of the 3U is demonstrated
• 3rd : More power, attitude control & determination, propulsion
• 4th : Constellations are here !
• 5th : AI collaborative entities
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201411
Trends / Hot Topics
• Earth Imaging/video
• EDAC enabled OBC’s
• >20Krad TID
• ~80W Power systems
• >5Mbps Comms
• AIS/ADS-B
• Propulsion (gas and plasma)
• Constellations !!
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201412
Images taken by CubeSats
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201413
Livestream Video from Space
1U satellites, built by EXA (Ecuador Space Agency)
Pegasus Krysaor
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201414
Enabling Technologies: Communication
• Biggest bottleneck perceived – €/bit is metric to be optimized for effective systems
• Current downlinks fairly slow
• S-Band emerging for payloads – Up to 1-5 being deployed and used
– Up to 22 Mbps offered by L-3
• Move to X-Band and beyond before 2015?
• More powerful platform can support these higher data rate systems
22Mbps S-band transmitter
8 dBi S-band Patch antennaPariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201415
Transceivers for CubeSats
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201416
Using all kinds of Frequencies
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201417
X-band 50Mbps transmitter
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201418
Miniature Deployable High Gain Antenna - Boeing
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201419
Miniature Deployable High Gain Antenna - Boeing
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201420
Why deploy if you can…. Inflate ?
Credit: MIT Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201421
Patch Antennas
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201422
Credit: AntDevCo
SMDC-ONE
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201423
Ka !! The ISARA Project (NASA)
• 100 Mbps communication in Ka
• 35 db antenna gain
• Unique “PopUp” Feed
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201424
Optical Communication ?
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201425
AeroCube-OCSD: 1.5U Optical communication
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201426
Proximity operations
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201427
Enabling Technologies: ADCS
• New generation of ADCS products enables
• better performance
• Heritage: – Magnetic determination & control
• Now: – Magnetic, Star tracker determination
– Earth horizon sensors, gyros also available
– Magnetorquer, reaction wheels
– Integrated ADCS packages incl CPU
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201428
Focus on ADCS
iADCS-100 from BST MAI-400 from MAI
Main sensor: STR
Main actuators: RW
Accuracy: <0.1 deg 3 sigma
Automatic pointing: Yes
Main sensor: ES+SS
Main actuators: RW
Accuracy: <0.1 deg 3 sigma
Automatic pointing: Yes
XACT from BCT
Main sensor: STR
Main actuators: RW
Accuracy: <0.02 deg 3 sigma
Automatic pointing: YesPariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201429
Focus on Propulsion
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201430
Water Propulsion
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201431
Enabling Technologies: PhoneSat
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201432
New Assembly scheme - Monarch
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201433
Is this a valid Business ?
•Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview•Feb 2014•34
2013 – The year it became a business !Summary of 02/2014 SpaceWorks report• Commercial companies will contribute over one
fourth of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2014 – This is a significant increase from 2013, where
the commercial sector contributed only 11% – The continued emergence and growth of
commercial companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/microsatellites launched
• Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/microsatellites and the satellites’ wide spectrum of revenue generating applications
• Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans
Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will
have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201435
Planet Labs
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201436
Flock-1 Launch 02/2014
28 satellites launched !!
Credit: NASAPariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201437
NanoSatisfi – Satellites on Demand
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201438
Launch 11/2013
3 ArduSats in space, more will be launched this year
Credit: NASA
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201439
ADS-B
Yellow indicates
Ground based
ADS-B – No oceanic cover !!Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201440
Myths Vs. Facts
•Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview•Feb 2014•41
Myth: Nanosatellites are not reliable, Their success rate is less than 50%
Fact: Success rate of Nanosatellite projects for the last five years is stable >80%
• Nanosatellites Industry is complex, and incorporates industrial, research and academic institutes
• Discussing “Nanosatellites Reliability” without taking into account who manufactured the satellites is like discussing “automobile reliability” while comparing BMW to TATA
Myth #1: Nanosatellites Reliability
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201442
Are COTS Reliable enough ?
Excluding the three large launch campaigns in 2013-2014 the success rate is 80%Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview
82%
91%93%
99%
92%
95% 95%
99%
16.00
21.71
27.40
47.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2003-2014 2007-2014 2009-2014 2013-2014
Overall Succes rate
Success in Space
#/year
Feb 201443
Myth: COTS are not reliable, They are the cause for failuresFact: Components are very reliable, the problem is workmanship• Two thirds of the projects are done by amateurs with no
experience in space standards AIT• Technical analysis presented @2011 small sat conference
showed most failures are related to workmanship• Flagship schools build “real” missions that work (90%
success) -• Components are getting better all the time
– This is a competitive market with several leading manufacturers pushing for constant quality improvement of products
Myth #2: Components Reliability
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201444
Most satellites are being built by amateurs
Attack of the CubeSats: A Statistical Look: Michael Swartwout – Saint Louis UniversityPariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201445
Myth: Nanosatellites that reach space last for several months and than die
Fact: There are nanosatellites that launched more than a decade ago and are still operational
• COTS are now RAD tolerant up to 20 Krad
• Computers are Latchup and SEU protected
• Low cost allow redundancy
– Several items in a satellite
– Several satellites (mission redundancy)
Myth #3: Nanosatellites don’t last long in space
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201446
• Satellites active since 2003– Cute-1– CubeSat XI-IV– RS-22
• Satellites active since 2005– Cubesat XI-V
• Satellites active since 2006– GeneSat-1
• Satellites active since 2008– Cute-1.7 + APD II– Delfi-C3– SEEDS II
• Satellites active since 2009– PRISM– SwissCube– BEESAT– ITUpSAT1
Average mission lifetime > 40 months
Mission Lifetime for Nanosatellites
*source of data: Cubesat page at the AMSAT web pagePariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201447
Future Trends
•Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview•Feb 2014•48
Nano/Micro satellite Future programs
Credit: SpaceWorks Nano/Microsatellite Market AssessmentPariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201449
Analysis per sector
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201450
2014 Market assessment conclusions
• The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue
• Projections based on both announced and anticipated plans of developers indicate 2,000 – 2,750 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201451
• 4rd Generation is here !– Since 2012 success rate is more than 90%
• Commercial companies will dominate the CubeSat market– EDU project will decrease to 25% of the market
• Workmanship is the main cause for failures– Communication system failures are often due to bad wiring and
not transmitter or receiver failures– Power system failures mostly occur due to connection loss
between solar panels and batteries
• Quality of subsystem is constantly improving– Number of manufacturers is rising, especially in Europe– Economical constraints derived meticulous QA– Competitiveness in the market manifests in the form of better
quality products
• High-End customers require High-End products– Space QA is now part of the production line
Summary
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201452
What about EDU Projects ? They just became smaller
Femto-sats
PocketQubes
WREN
By STADOKO UG
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201453
Thank you
•Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
Overview•Feb 2014•54
Sources of Information• 25 Years of Small Satellites
– Siegfried Janson – The Aerospace Corporation
• Attack of the CubeSats: A Statistical Look– Michael Swartwout – Saint Louis University
• Recent CubeSat Launch Experiences on U.S. Launch Vehicles– Jordi Puig-Suari, Roland Coelho – California Polytechnic State University; Scott Williams, Victor Aguero, Kyle
Leveque, Bryan Klofas – SRI International
• Distant Horizons: Smallsat Evolution in the Mid-to-Far Term– Matt Bille, Paul Kolodziejski, Tom Hunsaker – Booz Allen Hamilton
• Nine Years and Counting – A Nanosatellite Designer's Perspective– Andrew E. Kalman , President & CTO, Pumpkin, Inc. Director, SSDL, Stanford University
• Propulsion Solutions for CubeSats– W. Dan Williams, Busek Co. Inc
• Beyond CubeSats: Operational, Responsive, Nanosatellite Missions– Jeroen Rotteveel, ISIS- Innovative Solutions in Space
• Reliability of University-Class Spacecraft: A Statistical Look– Prof Michael Swartwout – Saint Louis University, March 2012
• The Future of CubeSat Data Communications, 26 October 2012– Bryan Klofas KF6ZEO, SRI International
• Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment, January 2014– Mr. Dominic DePasquale , Director of Washington D.C. Operations, Dr. John Bradford, President, SpaceWorks
Engineering
Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry
OverviewFeb 201455