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The Arab Spring Unstable situation Sunni vs. Shia in the Middle East Decline in US policy & influence in the region Iranian policy and influence The conflict with Turkey Israeli strategy and the challenges Israel faces today

Kobi marom presentation

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Slideshow that accompanied Kobi Marom's talk at the October 30 session of WOFI - TNG

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Page 1: Kobi marom presentation

The Arab Spring Unstable situation

Sunni vs. Shia in the Middle East

Decline in US policy & influence in the region

Iranian policy and influenceThe conflict with Turkey

Israeli strategy and the challenges Israel

faces today

Page 2: Kobi marom presentation

The Middle East

• M

Page 3: Kobi marom presentation

“Sitting on the edge of a Volcano”

Recent events in Syria: Which route will be taken ? Will Assad

survive ?

Iran and Hezbollah efforts to assist the current regime

The influence of the recent events on Hezbollah and Hamas

Absence of Leadership

The International Community

Israel’s policy and interest-An Opportunity ?

Page 4: Kobi marom presentation

Lebanon

Iran and Hezbollah obtained majority in the

parliament and rule the country

The arming process continues

Hezbollah is facing two challenges: The legal demand following Hariri’s

murder. Assad’s declining situation

The silence along the border: Israel’s deterrence

Page 5: Kobi marom presentation

Egypt

Military Regime: unstable situation

Mubarak’s Egypt: moderate actor in the region

The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood

Good relationships between Hamas and the current leadership which allowed the

Shalit Deal

Israel’s concerns: The peace agreement

No government control in the Sinai Peninsula

an open gate for terror Egypt returns to the front

Page 6: Kobi marom presentation

The Palestinian Arena

How the September Declaration and The November Vote influence the

field

The challenges and opportunities for Israel

Will current circumstances impact the process?

The Palestinian agenda was pushed aside due to the Arab Spring

The Future: Israel will continue tosuffer missile attacks from Gaza

Page 7: Kobi marom presentation

The Shalit Deal How will Shalit deal effect Israel in its

struggle against terror - mainly Hezbollah and Hamas.

Does Israel need to change its strategy associated with kidnapped soldiers ?

The Israeli dilemma: Commitment to soldiers

VS.

Risks taken for future terror attacks and the heavy price in human lives.

How does Shalit deal effect the global struggle against terror; Al Qaeda, Iran

and other terror organizations.

Page 8: Kobi marom presentation

Unstable situation in the near future

Decrease in US presence

Increasing Iranian influence

Concerns: Relationships with Egypt & Turkey

The Bottom Line