Session 3: Globalization; and Population Geographies

1) Hand out: Participant observation assignment

2) Guest: Zack Gross from Manitoba Council for International Cooperation (MCIC)

3) Population geography (Chapter 4: 4.1): How do we think about populations and how is this “geographical”?

4) Population geography (Chapter 4: 4.2): Why do populations grow or decline in particular places?

New York, NY

January 23, 2015

Fouberg, E. H., Murphy, A. B., De Blij, H. J. and C. J. Nash (2012). Human Geography: People, Place, and Culture. John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd., Mississauga.

Fishing village festival, Japan

Section 4.1 - How do we think about populations and his is this “geographical”?

Wilbur Zelinsky – we need to ask questions about where people live and why they live there

Demography: The study of the characteristics of a population, such as race, age, sex, and ethnicity.

there can be demographic studies conducted on one or several of such characteristics

Population geography: The study of why populations have certain characteristics and why they distribute themselves across space in particular ways.

Population density: A measurement of the number of people per given unit of land

Arithmetic population density: The population of a country or region expressed as an average per unit area. The figure is derived by dividing the population of the areal unit by the number of square kilometers or miles that make up the unit.

e.g. Canada has a population density of ~3.9 people / km2

Physiologic population density: The number of people per unit area of arable land (usually much lower than arithmetic population density).

Population Distribution

Population distribution: Description of locations on the Earth’s surface where populations live.

Dot maps: Maps where one dot represents a certain number of a phenomenon, such as a population.

World Population Distribution and Density

East Asia (largest density)

Almost one quarter of the world’s population is concentrated here. 1.3 billion people in China alone.

South Asia (second largest density)

1.5 billion people in India. Large concentration in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Two physical barriers create boundaries: the Himalayas and the desert west of the Indus River Valley in Pakistan.

World Population Distribution and Density

Europe (third largest density)

The European cluster contains over 715 million inhabitants, less than half the population of the South Asia cluster. Population density not as related to physical features such as terrain. Populations in numerous cities and towns.

North America (fourth largest density)

Has one densely populated region that is a megalopolis including Washington D.C. Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

megalopolis: Large coalescing supercities that are forming in diverse parts of the world

Population Composition

Population composition: Structure of a population in terms of age, sex, and other properties such as marital status and education.

Population pyramids: Visual representations of the age and sex composition of a population whereby the percentage of each age group (generally five year increments) is represented by a horizontal bar the length of which represents its relationship to the total population. The males in each age group are represented to the left of the centre line; the females in each age group are represented to the right of the centre line.

TED Ed Video: Population Pyramids: Powerful Predictors of the Future – Kim Preshoff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLmKfXwWQtE

Populations pyramids can be predictive...

World Life Expectancy - Italy

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/italy-population-pyramid

Populations pyramids can be different within countries for different groups of people...

Census: A periodic and official count of a country’s population

Collects data, usually per household, such as income, gender, and other demographic information

The Canada census occurs every 5 years

Advocates for the homeless, minorities, and others insist that the census results are not reflective of these populations and the challenges that they face

a major concern is that by not being included policy will not be developed to serve these populations

attempts have been made to account for populations such as the homeless, but this has been problematic

In 2010, the Conservative government decided to no longer issue the long form census questionnaire for 2011

was replaced with a voluntary national household survey

Long-form census was used by business, educators, and social service providers

Academics and geographers also used this data in their population studies

Agencies that collect data on world populations:

• The World Bank• Population Reference Bureau

Section 4.2 - Why do populations group or decline in particular places?

The Population Growth Debate

Thomas Malthus – An Essay on the Principles of Population

• the linear growth of resources, such as food• the exponential growth of population

• Assumed that food production is confined spatially; did not foresee globalization

Ester Boserup – argues that it is not food that determines population, but rather society’s capacity to develop new technologies and farming techniques

e.g. GMOs, fertilizers, herbicides

Population Change at World, Regional, National, and Local Scales

Rate of natural increase: An indicator of population change, calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from crude birth rate.

• Canada’s RNI in 2010 was 2.99 per thousand

Population Change at the World Scale

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of births per woman of childbearing years, usually considered between 15 and 49 years of age.

Doubling Time: The time required for a population to double in its size.

• 2 thousand years ago the world population was 250 million• 16 centuries passed before the population doubled to 500

million• 170 years later the population doubled again – 1 billion• 1930 the population reached 2 billion• 45 years to 4 billion• currently the doubling time is expected to be 54 years

Population Explosion: The rapid growth of the world’s population during the past century, attended by ever-shorter doubling times and accelerated rates of increase.

...but this can’t go on forever....

Population Change at the Regional and National Scales

• countries going through expansion and declines at different times• relates to different factors: heath, prosperity...no single

factor can explain these variations• demographers point to the correlation between high

growth rates and the low standing of women

e.g. The Girl Effect (girleffect.org)

Videos from the Girl Effect:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIvmE4_KMNw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e8xgF0JtVg

Thoughts?

Population Change at the Local Scale

Demographic differences within countries

Policy can affect the Total Fertility Rate at this level

Example from text: India’s population planning program instituted following independence to control extreme growth rates in parts of the country

- different states joined at different times

- in 1970s the Indian government began a policy of forced sterilization for any man with three or more children

Population Change in Canada

Steady growth since the mid-1850s

3 distinct phases of growth:

1. 1851 – 1900: slow growth; high fertility rates were offset by high mortality rates

2. 1901 – 1945: included WWI and WWII, accelerated growth, due mostly to immigration and settlement

3. 1946 – to present: even faster growth due to baby boom and strong immigration (12.3 million in 1946; 34 million in 2010)

In 2006, migratory increase accounted for 2/3 of population growth in Canada

The Demographic Transition

Crude Birth Rate (CBR): The number of live births yearly per thousand people in a population.

Crude Death Rate (CDR): The number of deaths yearly per thousand people in a population.

- sometimes the CDR can be higher than the CBR (e.g. plague, famine)

Demographic Transition: Multistage model, based on Western Europe’s experience, of changes in population growth exhibited by countries undergoing industrialization. High birth rates and death rates are followed by plunging death rates, producing a huge net population gain; this is followed by the convergence of birth rates and death rates at a low overall level.

Model of the Demographic Cycle

Factors for lower birthrates:

• medical advances – fewer infant deaths, stillbirths, etc.

• changed economy: women in the workplace

• changing family culture – different roles for men and women; different values related to gender and family position

• less need for large amounts of children to sustain a family (e.g. farming families required several children)

• later marriage due to educational and career pursuits

• family planning and contraception

Future Population Growth

Different countries will experience different types of population increases or decreases into the future – will depend on a multitude of factors.

Many agencies believe that most countries populations will stop growing at some point in the 21st century (e.g. UN predicted the world population would stabilize at 10 billion in 200 years; predictions are highly variable and are constantly changing)

Stationary Population Level (SPL): The level at which a national population ceases to grow.

major challenge would be caring for the aging populations of many countries