COP 17 Durban, Dec 2011

Living with extremes – what the science says

Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Climate (CCAFS)

Three key messages1. Agriculture and food systems need

to be totally transformed2. Extremes can be expected in many

forms3. There are solutions, ….

Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

13 scientists from around the world

Identify and promote policy actions to achieve sustainable agriculture, food security and poverty reduction while delivering climate change adaptation and mitigation

AfricaAsia

The food security challenge

• 1 billion undernourished

• 1 billion more mouths to feed in 14 years

• Up to 60-70% more food needed by 2050

2°4°

PROBLEMATIC• Increased floods and storms

• Shortage of water resources

• Impacts on food production at low latitudes

• Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thawDISASTROUS

• A 16 °C increase in the Arctic

• Substantial impact on major crops

• Around 1 billion additional people experience water scarcity

• Extensive coastal flooding as sea levels rise

The adaptation challenge

2090; 14 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

The adaptation challenge…..

The “footprint” challenge

• Agriculture contributes nearly a third of GHGs

• ¾ of these emissions come from developing countries

Meridian Institute, 2011

Food Security

Adaptation

Mitigation

Message #1: Agriculture and food systems

need to be totally transformed

Extreme events

• Pose greater threat to livelihoods and food security than the long-term changes in averages.

• Result in crisis and hardship; but just as important is “lost opportunity”

People living in dryland areas - 2 billionPeople dependent on degrading land - 1.5 billion

What is Predicted?

• It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation ….. will increase in the 21st century….

• There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century

Source: IPCC November 2011

50

10

5

3

20

c. 2050 c. 2100

West Africa 50

10

5

3

20

c. 2050 c. 2100

East Africa50

10

5

3

20

c. 2050 c. 2100

South Africa

Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation

IPCC 2011

Number of Natural Disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa (1975-2005)

Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters/IEG World Bank

Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

• Bangladesh (2007): – 1.6 million acres of cropland damaged– 25% winter rice crop destroyed

• Myanmar (2008)– 4 m storm surge inundated coastal

regions up to 40 km inland– Soil salination made 50,000 acres of

rice cropland unfit for planting

Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE

Weather catastrophes

Overall losses Insured losses

Message #2: Extremes can be expected in

many forms

Message #3 There are solutions……….

Source: IPCC November 2011

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

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