The Critical Role that CENIC can play in helping California higher-ed reduce its carbon footprint

Bill St. ArnaudBill.st.arnaud@gmail.com

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Climate Forecasts

MIT

> MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C– 11C increase in Northern

Canada– http://globalchange.mit.edu/pub

s/abstract.php?publication_id=990

> Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today– Most of Canada was under 2-3

km ice– With BAU we are talking about

5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

Global Average Temperature

2009 second warmest year ever

Climate Change is not reversible

• Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed

• GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate

• Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve is

to slow down the rapid rate of climate change

Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

Climate tipping points

• USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.

• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science– “Society may be lulled into a false sense

of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today

www.smart2020.org

But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!

ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption

Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724)

Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector

www.smart2020.org

The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase

from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020

PCs Are Biggest Problem

Data Centers Are Low Hanging FruitTelecom & Internet

fastest growing

Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet

• Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet http://bit.ly/4MVcET

• About 37 percent of the carbon footprint of the entire information and communication technology sector (ICT) in 2007 was due to the energy consumption of telecom infrastructure and devices, according to the Climate Group (14 percent came from data centers, and 49 percent came from PCs and peripherals).

• Contrast that with telecom’s carbon footprint figure in 2002 which was 28 percent of ICT’s carbon footprint.

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IT biggest power draw

Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%

Heating,CoolingandVentilation40-50%

Lighting11%Lighting11%

IT Equipment 30-40%

IT Equipment 30-40%

Other6%Other6%

Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006

Energy Consumption World Wide

Transportation

25%

Transportation

25%

Manufacturing25%

Manufacturing25%

Buildings50%Buildings50%

Energy Consumption Typical Building

• Half of ICT consumption is data centers

• 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*

• By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*

• During the next 5 years, 90% of all companies will experience some kind of power disruption. In that same period one in four companies will experience a significant business disruption*

• Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)

Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

Growth Projections Data Centers

California’s Climate Leadership• Executive Order S-3-05 set GHG targets.

– 2010 GHG emissions set to 2000 levels.– 2020 GHG emissions set to 1990 levels.– 2050 GHG emissions set to 80% of 1990

levels.

• AB 32 (Signed Into Law 2006)– Identify statewide GHG emissions for 1990

to serve as emissions limit to be achieved by 2020.• 427 million metric tons of CO2e goal,

roughly 30% reduction.– Mandatory reporting and verification of GHG

emissions by major emitters on or before Jan 1, 2008.• If you emit over 25,000 metric tons of

CO2e reporting is required.– Identify and adopt regulations for discrete

early actions enforceable by or before January 2010.

Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2

California & Renewable Energy• California State law currently requires 20%

of power to be renewable by 2010.– About 50% of goal will be reached.

• Executive Order S-14-08 [October 2008] set a goal of 33% renewable in the portfolio .

• Executive Order S-21-09 [September 2009] directs California Air Resources Board to adopt regulations to support 33% renewable by 2020.– Regulations to be in place and adopted by

stakeholder by July 2010.– More strict then any other state but Hawaii

which has a 40% requirement by 4030.– Including hydro-power by 2020, California

expects to exceed this and hit 45% renewables.

S-21-09

SOURCE: California Energy Commission, Energy AlmanacSource: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2

Federal Climate RegulationOctober 2009

• The EPA Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule (March 2009) in response to Public Law 110-161 (08 Appropriations)– 25,000 Tons or More Must Report to EPA.

• Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 passes the House in July 2009 by a vote of 219 Ayes, 212 Nays, 3 Present– 17% CO2 Reduction by 2020.– Federal Cap and Trade System.

• Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act– More aggressive CO2 reduction targets then

Waxman-Markey (20% by 2020 over 2005, 80% by 2050).

– Cap and Trade becomes “Pollution Reduction & Investment”.

– NYT, 9.30: Best guess is as of September 30 there are about 45 yes votes for the legislation.

State Leadership on ClimateSTATES 2009

-72% Have Climate Action Plans-42% Have GHG Reduction Targets-66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade

SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009

Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2

• Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act.

• The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province.– 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007.– 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007.

• Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral.

• If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton

SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009

Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD

GHG Regulation in British Columbia

UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012

2010 2011 2012

Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750

Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910

Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660

SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009

SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources

SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory

Carbon Costs for the University of British Columbia

Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only

• 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources

• How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?– Ebbing wind or setting sun

• Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks

• Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power– Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to

quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

UCSD is Installing Zero Carbon EmissionSolar and Fuel Cell DC Electricity Generators

San Diego’s Point Loma Wastewater Treatment Plant Produces Waste Methane

UCSD 2.8 Megawatt Fuel Cell Power Plant Uses Methane

2 Megawatts of Solar Power Cells

Being Installed

Available Late 2009

Use to Power Local Data

Centers

Source: Larry Smarr UCSD- CALIT2

The NSF-Funded UCSD GreenLight Project: Instrumenting the Energy Cost of Cluster Computing

• Focus on 5 Communities with At-Scale Computing Needs:– Metagenomics

– Ocean Observing

– Microscopy

– Bioinformatics

– Digital Media

• Goal: Measure, Monitor, & Web Publish Real-Time Sensor Outputs– Via Service-Oriented Architectures

– Allow Researchers Anywhere to Study Computing Energy Cost

– Enable Scientists to Explore Tactics for Maximizing Work/Watt

• Develop Middleware that Automates Optimal Choice of Compute/RAM Power Strategies for Desired Greenness

Source: Larry Smarr UCSD- CALIT2

MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA

• The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.

• It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke– http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/ci

sco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center–

GreenStar –Clouds and Virtualization

Distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc.

Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.

Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offsets

http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

Emerging “Follow the Sun” Technologies

• The ability to migrate entire virtual machines (routers and computers) to alternate data centres exists.

• Over HS networks the latency is tiny and transfer is invisible to the user. • Happens instantly without user knowledge, action or intervention

Nortel’s research labs developed and conceived the “Virtual Machine Turntable in 2006 and through collaboration with R&E networks in the US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Korea proved viability.

Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures

• Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers– http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf– Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data

centers at only a 3% cost increase

• Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems– Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of

the day and energy prices are low– Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices– 45% maximum savings in energy costs– http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf– http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/

• Computing for the future of the planet– http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/– http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

Carbon Rewards rather carbon taxes – “gCommerce” or “Cap

and Reward”

• Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit– No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint

• Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?

• Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collarboartive education and research technologies etc

• Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc

Proposed new funding scenario for R&E networks and cost reduction for universities

• Many universities are proposing to go carbon neutral and/or mandated to reduce their energy and carbon footprint

• Purchase of high quality offsets difficult and costly– Better to find energy and carbon savings internally

• Computers, networks and data centers account for 30-50% of energy consumption on campus

• Video conferencing, eLearning, zero carbon data centers, clouds, grids collaborative cyber-infrastructure, etc should reduce energy consumption

• Most universities don’t have processes to allocate energy or CO2 costs to individual departments or researchers– Significant challenge as appropriating heating, cooling, electricity, computing and networks

costs can be very difficult

• There is no incentive for researchers or educators to adopt low energy or CO2 solutions

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• Most R&E networks charge a membership fee or base fee based on size of institution, research dollars or number of students

• Instead propose to charge membership or base fee based on institution’s energy consumption– E.g. 1% of total Kwh for the past year

• R&E network agrees to provide a variety of services at no charge including• “X” miles of dedicated wavelengths• “Y” Mbps of Internet bandwidth• “Z” hours of video- conference• “W” time on a commercial compute cloud or central storage• “V” allocation on Optiputer or 4K vide conference• etc

• Institution is encouraged to reduce energy consumption and there is penalty in services if they do so

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New R&E network funding scenario“Cap and Reward”

New University low carbon funding scenario• University sets up an internal fund to reward departments or researchers who

reduce energy consumption and/or carbon footprint– Using services provided by R&E network, plus other incentives

• Each institution can adopt their own methodology to encourage as researcher or department to reduce their carbon footprint:– Additional research funds– Access to free external dedicated lightpaths– Free use of commercial cloud computing, centralized storage on R&E networks– Access to shared compute energy/grid with other institutions such as

Optiputer, 4K video– Free Cisco tele conference unit– Etc

• Simple baseline measurements of current energy and CO2 consumption using data from Greenlight etc in order to qualify

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Final remarks

• The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions

• Think carbon, not energy

• We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020

• 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including ICT and networks

• Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World

http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERM0960.pdf

Power Consumption of IP network

Source: Rod Tucker

Challenge of efficiency

Source: Rod Tucker

Let’s Keep The Conversation Going

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Thank you

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