2016 June GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through June 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program portfolio

strategy §  Program Profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition IPEDS+

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  1,000+ Programs

Enhanced Crosswalks



What Is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education. §  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets. §  The demand data is incorporated into our Program Evaluation System.

Over 45 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 700,000 new inquiries in June 2016 Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Job Postings

5.  Richard McCulloch - Tribeca Marketing Group

6.  Summary



-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

In June, inquiry volumes dropped 7% year-over-year. §  Inquiries have decreased every month in 2016. §  However, June had the smallest year-over-year decline so far this year.

-7% YoY



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiries jumped 36% in June.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

+36% YoY



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year. §  In June, external inquiries plummeted 22%. §  This was the lowest monthly volume in 2016.

-22% YoY

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 20%. §  They appear to be stabilizing at Q1 2014 levels.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+11%

+20%

+0%



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Branded Inquiries

In Q1 2016, conversion rates reached their lowest point in over two years. §  Branded inquiries are inquiries that come directly to institutions (e.g., school websites and call centers). §  Conversion rates have been falling, from 9% to 7%, or less. §  As schools have worked to get more branded inquiries, average quality has fallen.

9.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.2%

7.0% 7.2%

8.4%

7.0% 6.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

Branded Inquiries: Conversion Rates



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for External Inquiries

After trending up into mid-2015, external inquiry conversion rates have dropped to about 2%. §  External inquiries are inquiries that are generated by third parties, often referred to as PPI inquiries. §  Institutions have been turning to higher-quality inquiry providers, driving up conversion rates. §  Schools need admissions channels that can cost-effectively manage these “lower-octane” inquiries.

1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%

2.1% 2.3%

2.5%

1.9% 2.1%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

External Inquiries: Conversion Rates



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For March inquiries, total student conversions crashed 16% year-over-year. §  This is the worst decline we’ve seen so far this year. §  Conversions of April inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.


0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-16% YoY Immature Months1



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.48 $45.06

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

In June, the price of an external inquiry increased 3% year-over-year. §  This is unfortunate after having our first YoY decrease of 2016 last month. §  In the first six months of 2016, the average price for paid inquiries are up almost 3% year-over-year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+3%



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change So far this year, inquiries for online programs have fallen 6% year-over-year. •  June finished 8% lower year-over-year.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016 -6%

-8% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Online Programs

Conversion rates for inquiries for online programs are returning to 2014 levels. §  Conversion rates have mostly ranged between 2.4% and 2.9% over the past two years. §  After a spike to 3.4%, conversion rates have returned to 2.6%

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

2.0%

3.0% 2.8%

2.5% 2.4% 2.4%

3.4%

2.9% 2.6%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

Conversion Rate Trends for Online Programs



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online programs grew 1% in March. §  This was the first increase in 2016.

─  April and May are likely to reach last year’s levels. ─  For June, it is too soon to tell.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

+1% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Student inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 13% year-over-year. §  The first six months of 2016 have all fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels. §  Inquiries for on-campus programs are down 12% so far in 2016 compared to 2015.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-13% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



4.3% 4.1%

4.4% 4.7%

3.8% 3.6% 3.7%

3.5% 3.6%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

Conversion Rate Trends for On-Campus Programs

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for On-Campus Programs

Conversion rates for on-campus program inquiries have been stable since Q1 2015. §  For 2014 inquiries, conversion rates for on-campus programs ranged from 4.1% to 4.7%. §  For 2015 inquiries, conversion rates were substantially lower: 3.5% to 3.8%. §  Q1 2016 inquiries converted at a rate more consistent with the 2015 norm.




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 14% YoY in March. §  The immature months (April, May, June) look more promising.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-14% YOY Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year. §  Philadelphia grew 7% in June. §  Once again, Chicago had the largest decline.

-26%

-9%

-31%

3%

-14%

7%

-16%

-31% -34%

-41%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



The Big 5 Programs: June Growth

Only one of The Big Five programs grew in June. §  Registered Nursing grew 4% year-over-year. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science decreased slightly. §  Medical Assistant dropped 10%. §  Business Administration dropped over 25% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.

4%

-5%

-10%

-26%

-36% -40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Registered Nursing (ADN, BSN)

Criminal Justice

Medical Assistant

Business Admin: Bachelors+

Business Admin: Associate

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change



-10%

40%

478%

422% 411%

62% 60% 55%

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

Welding Psychology Counseling

Truck and Bus Driver/CDL

Computer Programming

Organizational Leadership

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Two new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1. §  Both Welding and Counseling Psychology increased over 400% in June2. §  The other three programs grew more than 55% in June.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).

2.  May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.



In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.

Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia



The Fast 5 Cities for All Inquiries

Four northeast markets were among the five fastest growing cities in June.

1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

-15% -12% -9% -14%

-32%

43% 39%

26% 21%

8%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Boston, MA Providence, RI Hartford, CT New Haven, CT Fresno, CA

Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change



-29%

-19%

-18%

-11%

-6%

-4%

-4%

0%

0%

8%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%

Associate's Unknown Degree External Campus Certificate Online Doctorate Bachelor's Master's Branded

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (April to June)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing Three Months

Only Branded inquiries grew for the quarter. §  Aside from Doctoral degrees, higher level degrees were flat. §  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs fell.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries. §  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel. §  Four different branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter. §  One external channel grew year-over-year for this period.

-61% -37% -36% -35%

-24% -12% -10%

-8% -8% -7%

9% 26%

37% 64%

243%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

Display: Branded Referral: Branded Email: Branded Offline Media: Branded PPL: External Affiliate: External Interactive: Branded All Other Internal: Branded PPC: Branded PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Website: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Organic: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External Social Media: Branded

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(April through June YoY)



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Occupations with the Greatest Growth over the Past Year (Among the Top 100 Largest SOC Occupations) The strongest occupations saw job posting increases of 50% or more. §  Healthcare occupations grew the fastest, with four of the top ten in that field.

25%

25%

27%

28%

29%

35%

40%

42%

72%

86%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Pharmacists

Teacher Assistants

Food Service Managers

Automotive Specialty Technicians

Elementary School Teachers (Except for Special Education)

Pharmacy Technicians

Physical Therapists

Restaurant Cooks

Real Estate Sales Agents

Critical Care Nurses

Percentage Increase in Job Postings by SOC July 2015-July 2016 vs. Prior Year

Year-Over-Year Change Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. Note that data shown is for all MSAs, so it excludes rural areas.

Healthcare



Overall Largest Occupations by Job Postings

The largest occupation, Registered Nursing, had 1.4 million job postings in the past year. §  Computer-related occupations also ranked high, accounting for four of the top ten.

334,921

344,380

367,595

376,314

402,176

510,921

533,135

543,870

914,463

1,399,827

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

Management Analysts

Medical and Health Services Managers

Computer System Analysts

Computer User Support Specialists

Software Developers, Applications

Customer Service Representatives

Marketing Managers

Retail Salespersons

Registered Nurses

National Job Postings by Standard Occupation Code July 2015 to July 2016

Job Postings (Volume) Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. Note that data shown is for all MSAs, so it excludes rural areas.

Computer-related



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary

Effective Higher Education Marketing: Driven by Data Presenter: Richard McCulloch | VP, Client Services & Business

Development

Data by Gray/ Marketing by Tribeca

(866) 255-4955

2001 Hollywood Blvd. Suite 209

Hollywood, FL 33020

www.TribecaMarketingGroup.com

Richard McCulloch – VP, Client Services Tribeca Marketing Group/Rolon Group

•  Over 20 years in Campus Operations

•  Admissions, Student Development, Campus President

•  Markets Served: NY, Boston, NJ, South Florida

•  Transitioned to Higher Ed Marketing 2014

•  Newest Service: MAC (Marketing and Admissions Coaching)


(866) 255-4955


Hollywood, FL 33020


What does the data offered by Gray & Associates lend to the

Higher Education Marketing process?

•  Labor Demand/Employment Data – Does the institution have the right programs for the markets they serve?

•  Inquiry Costs – How realistic is your marketing budget?

•  Inquiry Types – What sources are yielding the best volume and conversion opportunities?

•  Regional Metrics – Is your institution strategizing based on the specific needs and characteristics of your service area?

•  Overall Higher Ed Trends – Is your marketing message and integrated strategy effectively communicating the value proposition of your institution?


(866) 255-4955


Hollywood, FL 33020


Goal of Higher Ed Marketing

Effectively communicate the value of attending an

institution in order to motivate engagement and heighten probability of enrollment.


(866) 255-4955


Hollywood, FL 33020


Labor Demand Data – Marketing Strategy

Video engagement continues to grow on digital platforms

and in email marketing. It is important to craft video testimonials from both graduates and employers, especially

in high-demand programs.


(866) 255-4955


Hollywood, FL 33020


Inquiry Costs/Types – Marketing Strategy

Investing in assets to supplement internal training and

coaching can greatly enhance inquiry conversions and thus maximize marketing ROI


(866) 255-4955


Hollywood, FL 33020


Regional Metrics – Marketing Strategy

To further prove the value of your institution as the school of choice for students seeking a fulfilling academic experience, partnering with corporations that operate in the industries for which you provide programs of study is an important enhancement that lends itself to marketing.

(866) 255-4955


Hollywood, FL 33020


Thank you so much for your /me and a2en/on!

Let’s con/nue the conversa/on… 954-‐495-‐0932 or rm@tribecamarke/nggroup.com

www.tribecamarke/nggroup.com



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

June generally underperformed.

§  Inquiry volumes fell 7%. ─ Both on-campus and online declined.

§  One of the few bright spots this month was that Branded grew 36%. §  Conversions of March inquiries were down 16% YoY. ─ However, conversions of March online inquiries were up 1%.

─  It is too early to tell if April 2016 will reach last year’s levels.

§  After a decrease last month, average inquiry prices increased, and were once again over $45.

§  Last quarter: Higher degree levels were flat; Associate’s fell 29% §  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast

Please join us next month!

August Webcast (July Results)

Thursday, August 25th at 2:00 PM EDT